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eBook Preview:
Everything You
Need to Know
About Trading
Trading versus Investing
• Investing involves longer holding periods of
investment vehicles
(stocks, bonds, futures, currencies)
• Trading involves shorter holding periods of
trading vehicles
(stocks, bonds, futures, currencies)
Trading versus Investing
• Investing involves fundamental analysis using
financial statements that are reported on a
quarterly basis.
• Trading involves supply and demand analysis
using news and technical analysis on very short
time frames.
Trading versus Investing
• % of managers outperforming their benchmarks?
Studies show 75% of managers DO NOT beat
their benchmarks.
• % of traders that make money?
Surveys estimate that 95% of traders DO NOT
make money trading in the long run.
What trading used to look like?
• Paper, Paper, Paper
• Ticket orders
• Runners
What does trading look like?
• Screens, Screens, Screens
• Information on screens
• Price quotes, charts, trading platform
Types of Trading
• Institutional Trading
• Brokerage Trading (discount, full service)
• Proprietary Trading
• Quantitative Trading
Products to Trade
• Currencies
• Equities (stocks, ETFs)
• Bonds
• Options
• Commodity Futures (Crude oil, Gold...)
• Financial Futures (S&P 500, Ten Year Note)
How to create a strategy
What is a trading a strategy?
• A strategy is a set of defined rules that are
applied to a trading product
(stocks, bonds, currencies, futures product) with
the goal of generating a profit.
2 Sets of Rules
• Entry Rules
• Exit Rules
Tools for entry rules
• News: Bloomberg, Reuters...
• Technical Analysis (Covered in depth in the
trading seminar)
News strategy
• Entry Rule:
Company AAA announces that it will acquire
company BBB for 20% more than the current
market price.
Buy BBB on the announcement of the news.
Technical strategy
• Entry Rule:
Company AAA has lost 20% of its value in the past
10 trading days and it is now currently oversold.
Buy AAA when it becomes oversold.
Technical Analysis
• Overbought and Oversold
Risk Management/ Exit Rules
2 Types of Exit Rules
• Profit Taking Exit
Example: Sell 100 shares of BBB at $100 profit.
• Stop Loss Exit
Example: Sell 100 shares of BBB when I hit unrealized loss
of $100.
Backtesting a trading strategy
Backtesting means analyzing the trading results of
how your system would have performed in the
past.
Example:
If I bought BBB every time X happened and sold
BBB every time Y happened, how would much
money would I have made or lost from 2009 to
2012?
Automating a strategy
Automation of a trading strategy is when you
program the buy and sell rules in a program on
its on.
Automating a strategy is often called:
Black Box Trading
Algorithm Trading
Quantitative Trading
Pair strategy
What is a Pair Strategy?
• Market Neutral Strategy.
• Theoretically supposed to make money in
up, down and sideways markets.
• Developed in the 1980s at Morgan Stanley
• Involves taking 2 products that are historically
correlated.
Correlation
• Find two stocks that are highly positively
correlated.
Correlation of 0.90 = Strong positive correlation
Correlation of -0.90 = Strong negative correlation
Finding stock pairs for trading
• Coke and Pepsi
• Wynn Casinos and Las Vegas Sands
• GM and Ford
What about other less obvious?
• Spurious Correlations
How to make money with pairs?
• When the two stocks diverge in price:
Buy the oversold stock in the pair.
Sell short the overbought stock in the pair.
How to make money with pairs?
• GM Ford % Diff
Jan 5% 6% -1%
Feb 2% 4% -3%
Mar 20% 11% 6%
Apr -7% -1% 0%
May 2% 1% 1%
How to make money with pairs?
Step 1: Find a correlated pair.
Spread= GM/F
GM Ford Spread
Jan 5% 6% -1%
Feb 2% 4% -3%
Mar 20% 11% 6%
Apr -7% -1% 0%
May 2% 1% 1%
How to make money with pairs?
Step 2:
Determine your entry rule
based on the spread.
If Spread => 6%,
Buy oversold stock.
Sell the overbought stock.
GM Ford Spread
Jan 5% 6% -1%
Feb 2% 4% -3%
Mar 20% 11% 6%
Apr -7% -1% 0%
May 2% 1% 1%
How to make money with pairs?
Step 3:
Execute the pair trade.
Buy Ford shares.
Sell short GM shares.
GM Ford Spread
Jan 5% 6% -1%
Feb 2% 4% -3%
Mar 20% 11% 6%
Apr -7% -1% 0%
May 2% 1% 1%
How to make money with pairs?
Step 4:
Determine your exit rules.
Close the trade if:
Spread returns to 0%
Or if I lose $1000.
GM Ford Spread
Jan 5% 6% -1%
Feb 2% 4% -3%
Mar 20% 11% 6%
Apr -7% -1% 0%
May 2% 1% 1%
How to make money with pairs?
Step 5:
Close the trade since the
Spread returned to 0%.
Sell Ford shares
Buy to cover GM shares.
Profit= 6%
GM Ford Spread
Jan 5% 6% -1%
Feb 2% 4% -3%
Mar 20% 11% 6%
Apr -7% -1% 0%
May 2% 1% 1%
Summary
• Pair trading is very popular because its concept
is simple and logical.
• Pair trading is more complicated than it looks.
• When applied properly, pair trading can be
extremely profitable.
Thank you
http://www.amazon.com/Everything-
Need-Know-About-Trading-
ebook/dp/B00G4QZPCM/ref=sr_1_1?s=d
igital-
text&ie=UTF8&qid=1395280259&sr=1-
1&keywords=everything+you+need+to+kn
ow+about+trading
Everything You
Need to Know
About Trading

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Everything You Need to Know About Trading: Preview

  • 1. eBook Preview: Everything You Need to Know About Trading
  • 2. Trading versus Investing • Investing involves longer holding periods of investment vehicles (stocks, bonds, futures, currencies) • Trading involves shorter holding periods of trading vehicles (stocks, bonds, futures, currencies)
  • 3. Trading versus Investing • Investing involves fundamental analysis using financial statements that are reported on a quarterly basis. • Trading involves supply and demand analysis using news and technical analysis on very short time frames.
  • 4. Trading versus Investing • % of managers outperforming their benchmarks? Studies show 75% of managers DO NOT beat their benchmarks. • % of traders that make money? Surveys estimate that 95% of traders DO NOT make money trading in the long run.
  • 5. What trading used to look like? • Paper, Paper, Paper • Ticket orders • Runners
  • 6. What does trading look like? • Screens, Screens, Screens • Information on screens • Price quotes, charts, trading platform
  • 7. Types of Trading • Institutional Trading • Brokerage Trading (discount, full service) • Proprietary Trading • Quantitative Trading
  • 8. Products to Trade • Currencies • Equities (stocks, ETFs) • Bonds • Options • Commodity Futures (Crude oil, Gold...) • Financial Futures (S&P 500, Ten Year Note)
  • 9. How to create a strategy
  • 10. What is a trading a strategy? • A strategy is a set of defined rules that are applied to a trading product (stocks, bonds, currencies, futures product) with the goal of generating a profit. 2 Sets of Rules • Entry Rules • Exit Rules
  • 11. Tools for entry rules • News: Bloomberg, Reuters... • Technical Analysis (Covered in depth in the trading seminar)
  • 12. News strategy • Entry Rule: Company AAA announces that it will acquire company BBB for 20% more than the current market price. Buy BBB on the announcement of the news.
  • 13. Technical strategy • Entry Rule: Company AAA has lost 20% of its value in the past 10 trading days and it is now currently oversold. Buy AAA when it becomes oversold.
  • 15. Risk Management/ Exit Rules 2 Types of Exit Rules • Profit Taking Exit Example: Sell 100 shares of BBB at $100 profit. • Stop Loss Exit Example: Sell 100 shares of BBB when I hit unrealized loss of $100.
  • 16. Backtesting a trading strategy Backtesting means analyzing the trading results of how your system would have performed in the past. Example: If I bought BBB every time X happened and sold BBB every time Y happened, how would much money would I have made or lost from 2009 to 2012?
  • 17. Automating a strategy Automation of a trading strategy is when you program the buy and sell rules in a program on its on. Automating a strategy is often called: Black Box Trading Algorithm Trading Quantitative Trading
  • 19. What is a Pair Strategy? • Market Neutral Strategy. • Theoretically supposed to make money in up, down and sideways markets. • Developed in the 1980s at Morgan Stanley • Involves taking 2 products that are historically correlated.
  • 20. Correlation • Find two stocks that are highly positively correlated. Correlation of 0.90 = Strong positive correlation Correlation of -0.90 = Strong negative correlation
  • 21. Finding stock pairs for trading • Coke and Pepsi • Wynn Casinos and Las Vegas Sands • GM and Ford What about other less obvious? • Spurious Correlations
  • 22. How to make money with pairs? • When the two stocks diverge in price: Buy the oversold stock in the pair. Sell short the overbought stock in the pair.
  • 23. How to make money with pairs? • GM Ford % Diff Jan 5% 6% -1% Feb 2% 4% -3% Mar 20% 11% 6% Apr -7% -1% 0% May 2% 1% 1%
  • 24. How to make money with pairs? Step 1: Find a correlated pair. Spread= GM/F GM Ford Spread Jan 5% 6% -1% Feb 2% 4% -3% Mar 20% 11% 6% Apr -7% -1% 0% May 2% 1% 1%
  • 25. How to make money with pairs? Step 2: Determine your entry rule based on the spread. If Spread => 6%, Buy oversold stock. Sell the overbought stock. GM Ford Spread Jan 5% 6% -1% Feb 2% 4% -3% Mar 20% 11% 6% Apr -7% -1% 0% May 2% 1% 1%
  • 26. How to make money with pairs? Step 3: Execute the pair trade. Buy Ford shares. Sell short GM shares. GM Ford Spread Jan 5% 6% -1% Feb 2% 4% -3% Mar 20% 11% 6% Apr -7% -1% 0% May 2% 1% 1%
  • 27. How to make money with pairs? Step 4: Determine your exit rules. Close the trade if: Spread returns to 0% Or if I lose $1000. GM Ford Spread Jan 5% 6% -1% Feb 2% 4% -3% Mar 20% 11% 6% Apr -7% -1% 0% May 2% 1% 1%
  • 28. How to make money with pairs? Step 5: Close the trade since the Spread returned to 0%. Sell Ford shares Buy to cover GM shares. Profit= 6% GM Ford Spread Jan 5% 6% -1% Feb 2% 4% -3% Mar 20% 11% 6% Apr -7% -1% 0% May 2% 1% 1%
  • 29. Summary • Pair trading is very popular because its concept is simple and logical. • Pair trading is more complicated than it looks. • When applied properly, pair trading can be extremely profitable.