NewBase 02 March -2023 Energy News issue - 1598 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf

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NewBase Energy News 02 March 2023 No. 1598 Senior Editor Eng. Khaed Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Gulf states set to make big renewables investments: report
Oil & Gas News + NewBase
Significant investment in renewables are likely to be made by the Gulf states during the current
decade as they implement plans to decarbonise the power sector, according to a new report by
S&P Global Ratings.
Despite their dependence on the oil and gas industry, the Gulf nations have all announced new
targets or renewed their commitment to the Paris Agreement in the past two years, the report notes.
As one of the largest sources of emissions, the power sector looms large in most national plans for
decarbonization.
Solar PV power is particularly well-suited to the region, but installed capacity remains low relative
to many other regions. Capacity in the UAE and Saudi Arabia was 3 gigawatts (GW) in 2021; it had
been just 165 megawatts (MW) in 2016.
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

Saudi Arabia and UAE
The two largest economies in the region -- the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia --
continue to lead climate-related efforts in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). As of year-end 2021,
about 90% of the region's established renewable energy capacity was in these countries, with the
UAE alone representing 77%. They have also committed to updated targets as part of renewed
efforts to reach net zero, the report highlights.
The governments of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have announced their intention to continue to invest
in renewables and the report believes plans to establish a renewables sector could help them in
their efforts to achieve their climate goals.
Government-related entities
have taken the lead on
procurement, inviting local and
international developers to bid
for tenders. Most developers
then finance the assets on a non-
recourse basis, which means
using substantial commercial
bank debt. However, the UAE
and Saudi Arabia have both
established public-private
partnership frameworks, making
project finance an obvious
choice for funding deployment.
"As energy transition in the
region progresses, we expect to
see more renewables projects tapping the capital markets for financing, including a growing number
of solar PV projects," says the report.
"In our global portfolio of solar PV projects, the key credit qualities include the timing of and budget
for maintenance, availability, and good management of solar panel degradation."
Renewables are part of climate roadmaps
The Paris Agreement requires all signatories to set and maintain goals, known as nationally
determined contributions (NDCs). Although their circumstances differ, all the governments in the
region have publicly announced their net zero targets and are looking to deploy renewable energy
to meet the climate commitments in their NDCs.
The power sector is a key source of emissions. The UAE and Saudi Arabia -- which produce the
most greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the GCC in absolute terms -- have made the largest
investments in renewables. Their
governments are among the many globally to have publicly announced their net zero targets, and
a roadmap toward net zero.
Business-As-Usual Scenarios
Many countries, including those in the GCC, set their NDCs by reference to a "business-as-usual
(BAU) scenario." This is a counterfactual baseline scenario based on the emissions that are

predicted to have occurred if no steps to mitigate climate change had been taken since the base
year, incorporating the effect of economic growth on emissions.
This means that in the short term, emissions in some countries might continue to increase, in
absolute terms, but have been reduced compared with a scenario in which no policy interventions
occurred.
In 2022, in its second NDC, the UAE increased its target for reducing GHG emissions to 31% by
2030, relative to its BAU scenario. Its earlier commitment was to a reduction of 23.5% against the
BAU level. Under the new NDC, the UAE will limit emissions in 2030 to 208 million metric tons of
carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), relative to the 301.2 million metric tons of CO2e emissions
predicted under its BAU scenario.
The UAE's Renewable Energy Strategy 2050 states that decarbonization of the power sector is a
key priority. Organisations like the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) do not include
nuclear power in their datasets on renewable energy; the UAE, by contrast, includes nuclear and
renewables in its definition of "clean energy." The UAE's goal is to have clean energy provide 30%
of its energy mix by 2030, and 50% by 2050.
In 2021, Saudi Arabia announced an update to its NDC. By 2030, it now intends to reduce, avoid,
and remove annual emissions of 278 million tons of CO2e. The NDC uses a base year of 2019. To
achieve this objective, it aims to generate about 50% of its power from renewable sources by 2030.
Saudi Arabia has also set its net zero target for 2060, the report notes.

Global energy-related CO2 emissions up to record high in 2022
IEA
Global energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide hit a record high last year, although more clean
technology such as solar power and electric vehicles helped limit the impact of increased coal and
oil use, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
Deep cuts in emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels, will be needed over the coming years if
targets to limit a global rise in temperatures and prevent runaway climate change are to be met,
scientists have said.
"We still see emissions growing from fossil fuels, hindering efforts to meet the world’s climate
targets," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a release alongside the report.
The report by the Paris-based watchdog comes just weeks after major fossil fuel producers such as
Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Shell reported record profits, with BP also rowing back on plans to slash
oil and gas output and reduce emissions.
"International and national fossil fuel companies are making record revenues and need to take their
share of responsibility," Birol said. Global emissions from energy rose by 0.9% in 2022 to a record
36.8 billion tonnes, the IEA analysis showed.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from coal grew by 1.6% last year with many countries turning to
the more polluting fuel after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a reduction in Russian gas supply to
Europe sparked record high gas prices.

CO2 emissions from oil rose by 2.5% but remained below pre-pandemic levels the report said.
Around half of the increase in oil-related emissions was due to a rise in air travel which was
rebounding from a low during the pandemic.
Lower output from nuclear power plants and extreme weather events including heatwaves also
contributed to the increase in energy related emissions, the IEA said.
Emissions were partly offset, however, by a rise in renewable power sources like wind and solar,
energy efficiency measures and electric vehicles. These avoided an additional 550 million tonnes
of CO2 emissions last year, the IEA said.
 Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 0.9% or 321 Mt in 2022, reaching a new high of
over 36.8 Gt. Following two years of exceptional oscillations in energy use and emissions, caused in
part by the Covid-19 pandemic, last year’s growth was much slower than 2021’s rebound of more
than 6%. Emissions from energy combustion increased by 423 Mt, while emissions from industrial
processes decreased by 102 Mt.
 In a year marked by energy price shocks, rising inflation, and disruptions to traditional fuel trade
flows, global growth in emissions was lower than feared, despite gas-to-coal switching in many
countries. Increased deployment of clean energy technologies such as renewables, electric vehicles,
and heat pumps helped prevent an additional 550 Mt in CO2 emissions. Industrial production
curtailment, particularly in China and Europe, also averted additional emissions.
 Specific challenges in 2022 contributed to the growth in emissions. Of the 321 Mt CO2 increase,
60 Mt CO2 can be attributed to cooling and heating demand in extreme weather and another
55 Mt CO2 to nuclear power plants being offline.
 CO2 growth in 2022 was well below global GDP growth of 3.2%, reverting to a decade-long trend
of decoupling emissions and economic growth that was broken by 2021’s sharp rebound in emissions.
Improvements in the CO2 intensity of energy use were slightly slower than the past decade’s average.
 Emissions from natural gas fell by 1.6% or 118 Mt, following continued tightening of supply
exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Reductions in emissions from gas were particularly
pronounced in Europe (-13.5%). The Asia Pacific region also saw unprecedented reductions (-1.8%).
 Increased emissions from coal more than offset reductions from natural gas. Amid a wave of
gas-to-coal switching during the global energy crisis, CO2 emissions from coal grew by 1.6% or
Global CO2 emissions from energy combustion
and industrial processes, 1900-2022

243 Mt, far exceeding the last decade’s average growth rate, and reaching a new all-time high of
almost 15.5 Gt.
 Emissions from oil grew even more than emissions from coal, rising by 2.5% or 268 Mt to
11.2 Gt. Around half of the increase came from aviation, as air travel continued to rebound from
pandemic lows, nearing 80% of 2019 levels. Tempering this increase, electric vehicles continued to
gain momentum in 2022, with over 10 million cars sold, exceeding 14% of global car sales.
 The biggest sectoral increase in emissions in 2022 came from electricity and heat
generation, whose emissions were up by 1.8% or 261 Mt. In particular, global emissions from coal-
fired electricity and heat generation grew by 224 Mt or 2.1%, led by emerging economies in Asia.
 A strong expansion of renewables limited the rebound in coal power emissions. Renewables
met 90% of last year’s global growth in electricity generation. Solar PV and wind generation each
increased by around 275 TWh, a new annual record.
 Emissions from industry declined by 1.7% to 9.2 Gt last year. While several regions saw
manufacturing curtailments, the global decline was largely driven by a 161 Mt CO2 decrease in
China’s industry emissions, reflecting a 10% decline in cement production and a 2% decline in steel
making.
 China’s emissions were relatively flat in 2022, declining by 23 Mt or 0.2%. Growing emissions
from combustion were offset by declines from industrial processes. Weaker economic growth,
declining construction activity, and strict Covid-19 measures led to reductions in industrial and
transport emissions. Power sector emissions growth slowed compared with the average of the past
decade but still reached 2.6%.
 The European Union saw a 2.5% or 70 Mt reduction in CO2 emissions despite oil and gas market
disruptions, hydro shortfalls due to drought, and numerous nuclear plants going offline. Buildings
sector emissions fell markedly, helped by a mild winter. Although power sector emissions increased
by 3.4%, coal use was not as high as anticipated. For the first time, electricity generation from wind
and solar PV combined exceeded that of gas or nuclear.
 US emissions grew by 0.8% or 36 Mt. The buildings sector saw the highest emissions growth,
driven by extreme temperatures. The main emissions reductions came from electricity and heat
generation, thanks to unprecedented increases in solar PV and wind, as well as coal-to-gas switching.
While many other countries reduced their natural gas use, the United States saw an increase of 89 Mt
in CO2 emissions from gas, as it was called upon to meet peak electricity demand during summer
heat waves.
 Emissions from Asia’s emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, grew
more than those from any other region in 2022, increasing by 4.2% or 206 Mt CO2. Over half of
the region’s increase in emissions came from coal-fired power generation.

Mauritania and Senegal, BP to expand LNG project off-Shore
UPI - Daniel J. Graeber
British energy company BP said it was mulling its options for a second phase of operations for a
major gas project off the coast of West Africa. Photo courtesy of BP.
British energy company BP said Monday it backed a development concept for a second phase of a
giant liquefied natural gas project off the coast of Mauritania and Senegal.
BP and its consortium partners are considering a gravity-based structure (GBS) for the second
phase of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project that will increase the capacity to the overall facility.
"GBS LNG developments have a static connection to the seabed with the structure providing LNG
storage and a foundation for liquefication facilities," the company explained.
A floating production, storage and offloading vessel left a Chinese shipyard in late January for its
12,000-nautical-mile journey to the coast of Mauritania and Senegal for BP's project.
RELATEDItaly's Eni posts decade-high profits, looks to natural gas for future growth
The eight production and processing components onboard the FPSO can process around 500
million standard cubic feet of natural gas per day. That compares with the tens of billions of cubic
meters of gas coming from U.S. shale basins each day, though BP sees it as a boon for West Africa.
Already under development, the first phase of operations will send offshore gas to a floating
production facility for processing and refinement before sending it back to other facilities that can
turn products into liquid form.

LNG is emerging as a vital component of the pursuit of reliable supplies against a backdrop of
geopolitical risk emanating from the war in Ukraine. Gas-rich energy company Shell said in a recent
report that the European and British economies took in 60% more LNG than they did in 2021, which
allowed the region to tolerate the shortage of piped gas from Russia.
Gordon Birrell, BP's executive vice president for operations and production, said West Africa could
emerge as the next global LNG center. "We aim to build on our strong collaboration with our
partners, and the governments of Mauritania and Senegal, to further develop a long-term,
successful energy hub in West Africa," he said.
BP made its final investment decision on the Greater Tortue Ahmeyin project in 2018.

Indonesia set to construct of $2.6bln hydropower plant 1,375MW
Fransiska Nangoy, Reuters News
Indonesia's President Joko Widodo on Wednesday launched the construction of a $2.6 billion
hydropower plant that would be linked to a planned industrial park in North Kalimantan.
The power plant, called Mentarang Induk, is being developed by PT Kayan Hydropower Nusantara,
a joint venture between Indonesia's PT Kayan Patria Pratama Group and Malaysia's Sarawak
Energy Bhd.
The 1.375 gigawatt plant will be linked to an industrial area the president said will house electric
vehicle and battery plants as well as aluminium and petrochemical facilities.
Dam Site
35km upstream of Malinau town. Site selection is based on optimal topographical,
geological and geographical conditions, with good access availability and maximised
river yield from the Mentarang River and its main tributary, the Tubu River). Concrete Faced
Rockfill Dam (CFRD) designed with a dam crest height of 235m and crest lenght of 815m
He said the hydropower project is expected to finish construction in seven years to power the
planned park.
"Our hope is that Indonesia's economic transformation would really take place toward a green
economy," Jokowi, as the president is known, said in a ground-breaking ceremony that was
streamed online.
Indonesia is a major thermal coal producer and relies on it as its main source of power but has
pledged to move away from the dirty fuel and reach net-zero emissions before 2060.
The country, which is one of the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, aims to increase the
proportion of renewables in its energy mix to 23% by 2025, up from around 12% currently. While
less emissions-intensive than coal, environmentalists agree that dams can also cause issues like
disruption of water flow, sediment flow and ecosystems.

NewBase March 02 -2023 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil prices holding to gain with caution to global demand concerns
Reuters + NewBase
Oil holding gains and slightly up on Thursday on worries about rising U.S. crude inventories and
concerns about more rate hikes in Europe potentially hitting growth, paring this week's gains on
signs of a strong economic rebound in China.
Brent crude futures Up 36 cents, or 0.43%, to $84.67 a barrel at 10.27 GMT, while U.S. West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were Up 42 cents, or 0.54%, at $78.11 a barrel.
Both contracts rose about 1% in the previous session after data showed manufacturing activity in
China in February grew at the fastest pace in more than a decade, adding to evidence of an
economic rebound in the world's second largest economy after the removal of strict COVID-19
curbs.
However, a tenth consecutive week of crude stock builds in the United States pressured the market.
Oil price special
coverage

U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week ending Feb. 24 to
480.2 million barrels, their highest level since May 2021, the Energy Information Administration
reported.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 500,000-barrel rise.
Record exports of U.S. crude oil, however, kept the build smaller than in recent weeks, with
shipments rising to 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, according to the EIA.
Oil was also hit by looming uncertainty on the overall global demand outlook, keeping prices "largely
unchanged," said Serena Huang, head of APAC analysis at analytics firm Vortexa.
Expectations of rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) are growing after inflation
in Germany, Europe's largest economy, rose more than expected in February, with food and energy
prices increasing despite relief measures.
This comes after France and Spain, also key economies in Europe, posted unexpected gains in
inflation.
In the U.S., manufacturing contracted for a fourth straight month in February, though there were
signs that factory activity was starting to stabilise, with a measure of new orders pulling back from
a more than 2-1/2-year low.
"German inflation raised worries that the ECB will have to be more aggressive with its tightening
cycle. The U.S. data shows the economy is still slowing down but some parts are improving," said
Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, in a note.
"Oil looks like it will stay stuck in a trading range, but the risks are clearly to the upside. Some traders
might be waiting until we get a better sense of what will be the peak rate after next Friday's nonfarm
payroll report."
Meanwhile, crude oil processed by Indian refiners reached record levels in January, provisional
government data on Wednesday showed, as the country boosted imports of Russian barrels that
Western countries shunned.
Refinery throughput in the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer reached 5.39 million
barrels per day for January, the highest since Reuters records going back to 2009.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –March -01 -2023
CLEAN ENERGY
Gas Market Report, Q1-2023
IEA
The global natural gas market suffered a major shock in 2022 as Russia cut pipeline deliveries to
Europe substantially, placing unprecedented pressure on supply and triggering a global energy
crisis.
Despite this, European countries were able to fill their underground gas storage sites well above
historical averages, supported by a combination of targeted policy measures, a record inflow of
liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a steep drop in consumption, particularly in energy-intensive
industries.
Russia’s pipeline cuts also had implications for gas consuming regions beyond Europe, leading to
record high spot prices, supply tensions and considerable demand reduction.
Unseasonably mild winter weather in the northern hemisphere, combined with sustained LNG
inflows and adequate gas storage inventories put downward pressure on European and Asian spot
prices.
Nevertheless, the global gas balance is fragile and a number of uncertainties in 2023 exist. Gas
importing markets remain exposed to a tight supply environment and the impact of further cuts from
Russia are cause for concern.
Since the crisis began, governments in Europe and other importing markets have taken strong policy
measures to increase their energy resilience and reduce dependence on natural gas.
This new issue of the quarterly Gas Market Report includes an overview of the main market highlights
for 2022, and an analysis of recent gas market developments with a forecast for 2023.

The big unknown: LNG demand in China in 2023
China’s appetite for imported LNG ranks among the greatest uncertainties for 2023, not just for the
global LNG market, but also for gas supply availability in Europe in the face of severely reduced
pipeline gas flows to the continent from Russia. In 2022 net LNG imports into China dropped by an
unprecedented 21% (22 bcm) compared with a 17% (16 bcm) increase in the previous year.
This reduction played a crucial role in enabling a 63% (65 bcm) increase in LNG inflows into Europe
to compensate for the lost Russian volumes. However, the 2022 collapse of Chinese LNG demand
was precipitated by a unique set of factors – namely high spot LNG prices, slowing economic
growth, and lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy – that are unlikely to be repeated in
precisely the same combination in 2023.
Our analysis indicates that a set of only moderately bearish assumptions on China’s total gas
consumption, domestic production and pipeline gas imports could depress the country’s LNG

demand by another 12% (10 bcm) in 2023, whereas a confluence of moderately bullish conditions
could boost China’s LNG intake by 35% (30 bcm) to well above the previous peak in 2021.
The total uncertainty range is about 40 bcm, with China’s 2023 net imports reaching 75 bcm at the
low end and 115 bcm at the high end. This range is greater than the uncertainty associated with the
potential loss of all remaining pipeline gas flows into Europe from Russia, which have averaged
about 28 bcm on an annualised basis since deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline were cut off
indefinitely at the end of August 2022.
Our updated forecast anticipates China’s LNG demand to reach 94 bcm in 2023. This would
represent a 10% (8 bcm) increase on 2022, but falls closer to the low end of the uncertainty range.
A disruptive “exit wave” of infections following China’s recent break with its previous zero-Covid
policy (signs of which were already evident in January 2023) presents substantial further downside
risk to this forecast.
Conversely, China’s growing portfolio of LNG contracts means that the country’s LNG demand in
2023 could be more resilient and less exposed to spot market pricing and volatility than it was prior
to 2022.
With about 13 bcm of new LNG contracts starting delivery in 2023, China’s contracted LNG volume
is on course to reach nearly 110 bcm this year, substantially higher than projected LNG demand in
all but the most optimistic scenarios (and slightly higher than China’s total LNG imports at their 2021
peak of 108 bcm).
This means that in 2023 China could ramp up its LNG imports back to 2021 levels without the need
to increase spot LNG purchases. At just under USD 15/MBtu, China’s contracted LNG supplies
were almost 30% cheaper than spot LNG imports during 2022, according to price data from S&P
Global Commodity Insights.

Gas prices moderated significantly in January 2023 across all key gas markets, although they
remained well above historic averages in Asia and Europe. Forward curves as of the end of
February 2023 indicate that TTF is set to average USD 17/MBtu, with Asian spot LNG averaging
just below USD 17/MBtu and Henry Hub averaging USD 2.8 /MBtu in 2023. The price spread
between TTF and Asian spot LNG is expected to tighten significantly in 2023.

NewBase Energy News 24 March 2023 - Issue No. 1597 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services

NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

NewBase 02 March -2023 Energy News issue - 1598 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf

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NewBase 02 March -2023 Energy News issue - 1598 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf