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New base 02 may 2018 energy news issue 1167 by khaled al awadi
- 1. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1
NewBase Energy News 02 May 2018 - Issue No. 1167 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: ADNOC appoints Japan’s INPEX as asset leader for Abu
Dhabi’s Lower Zakum Concession Source: ADNOC
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has signed an agreement appointing JODCO
Lower Zakum Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Japan’s INPEX Corp, as the asset leader for
Abu Dhabi’s Lower Zakum concession area.
The agreement, which was announced on the second day of a visit to the UAE by His Excellency
Shinzo Abe, Japan’s Prime Minister, was signed by H.E. Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC Group
CEO and member of Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Petroleum Council, and Toshiaki Kitamura, President
and Chief Executive Officer of INPEX.
- 2. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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In February, INPEX was awarded 10 per cent interest in Abu Dhabi’s offshore Lower Zakum
concession. At the same time the company’s stakes in Abu Dhabi’s Satah and Umm Al Dalkh
concession were extended for 25 years. INPEX also maintained its 40% stake in Satah and
increased its Umm Al Dalkh share from 12 per cent to 40 per cent.
H.E. Dr Al Jaber said:
'At ADNOC, we place great importance
on our strategic partnership with
INPEX. This agreement further
strengthens the economic relationship
between the UAE and Japan, which is
founded on the established and
mutually beneficial partnerships in the
energy sector.
'As a long-standing shareholder in both
Lower Zakum and Upper Zakum,
INPEX is in a unique position to
leverage synergies between both
concessions, including the utilization
and optimization of infrastructure, to
enhance operational efficiencies,
enable substantial cost savings, and
create greater value for the benefit of
both partners.'
As asset leader, JODCO will lead the
development plans to achieve the concession objectives, including building up and sustaining
production targets, achieving agreed recovery rates and cost optimization targets.
Kitamura said:
'INPEX will devote its human and technical resources to achieving production targets, deploying
enhanced oil recovery technology most suitable for Lower Zakum, reducing development and
production costs and supporting transfer of technical knowledge. And, as the only IOC partner
participating in both the Lower and Upper Zakum oil fields, we will continue to seek synergies
between the two oil fields.
'INPEX views Abu Dhabi as one of its core business areas, and will continue to strive to strengthen
its oil development activities and contribution efforts in Abu Dhabi, as well as help further deepen
the cordial relations between UAE and Japan.'
Lower Zakum is one of three new separate concession areas that make up the former ADMA
offshore concession, namely Lower Zakum, Umm Shaif and Nasr and Satah Al Razboot (SARB)
and Umm Lulu. The restructuring of concessions is aimed at maximising commercial value,
broadening the partner base, expanding technical expertise, and enabling greater market access.
Other international shareholders in the Lower Zakum concession area are the China
National Petroleum Corp, an Indian consortium, led by ONGC Videsh, Italy’s ENI and
France’s Total. ADNOC retains a majority 60% stake in the concession.
- 3. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3
UAE: EDF to invest up to €600m in energy storage from renwable
The national - Jennifer Gnana
Jean-Bernard Levy, chairman and chief executive of EDF Group, at the opening of a 200MW plant
for the third phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park
in Dubai. Satish Kumar / The National
French utility company EDF will look to invest up to €600 million
(Dh2.65 billion) in research and development focused on energy
storage as it looks to invest around $10bn in the sector by 2035, its
chairman and chief executive said.
“We’re investing altogether around €600m every year and more and more significant part of that is
in storage whether it is for batteries or for energy management systems, utility scale solutions and
so on. It’s part of the research and development project," Jean-Bernard Levy said on the sidelines
of the opening of a 200 megawatt solar photovoltaic plant that forms part of the third phase of
Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum solar park, which EDF is building in consortium with Abu
Dhabi’s Masdar.
Energy storage refers to the capture of energy generated through solar, wind and other sources for
use at a later time through batteries and devices to ensure reliability of power grid supply. State-
backed EDF, which has interests in nuclear, renewables, gas as well as coal plans to develop or
acquire more than 10 gigawatts of energy storage capacity by 2035.
“Storage will become a mandatory part of the energy systems, so that you can really regulate the
power and bring power to everybody even when there is little wind and even when there is little sun
and we will look at storage in an opportunistic way and we intend to deploy our storage capacity
globally," said Mr Levy.
EDF, whose portfolio includes around 4.6 per cent hydroelectricity worldwide, will look to develop
storage capacity with Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, the emirate’s utilities developer, in its
upcoming hydro project in the enclave of Hatta.
The 250MW hydroelectric power project - the first in the GCC - will involve pumping water to the top
of a hill in the morning and releasing the stored water to generate electricity through turbines at
night, complementing the existing power generation grid, said Mr Levy.
The company is also looking to jointly develop opportunities abroad with Masdar.
“There are at least six or seven other countries in the world where we are seeking jointly some new
business between Masdar and EDF,” Mr Levy said.
EDF is looking to grow its renewables business from
28GW at present to 50GW by 2030, with increasing
emphisis on wind, solar storage and district heating, he
added.
Mr Levy, who met with the Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman on his visit to Paris last month,
declined to comment whether talks on developing the
kingdom’s nuclear reactors formed part of the agenda.
The group will look to engage in wind projects in Egypt
and was also eyeing opportunities in Oman, he added.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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DEWA to tender 300MW solar plant by the beginning of 2019
The concentrated solar power facility in Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park will raise
CSP capacity to 1000MW by 2020
Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, chief executive of Dewa, at the opening of the 200MW 1st stage of
3rd phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai. Satish Kumar / The
National
Dubai Electricity and Water Authority will tender a 300 megawatt concentrated solar
power plant for the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park before the first quarter
of 2019 as the UAE looks to meet 7 per cent of its power needs from solar by 2020,
according to its utilities chief.
The CSP unit will be tendered with storage, Saeed Al Tayer, Dewa managing director
and chief executive, said on the sidelines of the opening of the first part of the 800MW
phase three of the solar scheme in the Seih Al Dahal desert to the south of Dubai.
A consortium led by Abu Dhabi's Masdar and France’s EDF Group are set to complete
the third phase by 2020, for which they have secured $650m in financing arranged
through banks, according to Fawaz Al Muharrami, executive managing director of Shuaa
Energy, the joint venture by both partners.
The solar park, being built in phases, is set to have a 5,000MW capacity by 2030 and
will be the largest independent power producer (IPP) model single-site solar park in the
world, once completed. Dubai, currently meets 4 per cent of its power needs from solar
with the remainder generated from natural gas.
The emirate has targeted generating 25 per cent of its energy needs from clean
resources by 2020, which it hopes to scale up to 75 per cent by 2050.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Dewa plans to spend around Dh81 billion over the next five years to develop its energy
infrastructure. Of the planned spend, Dh39bn would go the IPP developer, Mr Al Tayer
said.
An IPP refers to an entity that generates power for sale to a public utility. In March Dewa
awarded contracts to build four substations with a combined value of Dh1.28bn as part
of its wider programme to boost power capacity.
Among other developments Dewa is targeting is a hydrogen plant to be developed with
Germany’s Siemens that is set to provide fuel for buses plying to the solar park during
Dubai’s hosting of the Expo 2020, Mr Al Tayer said.
The utilities developer is also working to stem loss of water during its transmission and
distribution, which Dewa estimated was around 7 per cent last year.
“We hope that this year we’ll reach 6 to 5 per cent and we will do a lot of automation for
distribution now,” he said. “The customer net loss used to be 15 minutes [and] today [it
is] 2.3 mins, the lowest worldwide,” he added.
Dewa is also currently undertaking a study of its last water reservoir project before it switches to
aquifer storage, which involves storing strategic reserves of water in natural fissures underground.
Dewa earlier this year awarded consultancy contracts to design and construct two water reservoirs
at Al Nakhli and Al Lusaily that will increase the storage capacity of Dubai to 1 billion gallons.
“The natural reservoirs being studied could contain about 1.6 billion gallons of water. We started
three years ago, and we’ll announce our findings by the end of the year,” Mr Al Tayer said.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6
Oman plans 6 new solar, wind power projects
Oman observer - Conrad Prabhu
Adding new momentum to its nascent renewables energy programme, Oman has unveiled plans
for six new solar and wind powered projects aimed at delivering a total of around 2,650 megawatts
(MW) of renewables based capacity by the year 2024.
The proposed new schemes are a further addition to Oman’s maiden power and water projects —
a 50 MW wind farm in Dhofar being implemented by the Rural Areas Electricity Company (RAECO)
and the Abu Dhabi Energy Future Company (Masdar); and a 500 MW utility-scale solar photovoltaic
(PV) project [Ibri II Solar IPP] planned at Ibri in Dhahirah Governorate.
The new projects are among the key
highlights of OPWP’s yet to be
published ‘7-Year Outlook
Statement 2018-2024’, currently
awaiting approval, according a key
executive of the wholly government-
owned entity — a member of Nama
Group.
Offering a sneak preview of the
Outlook Statement at the Oman
Energy & Water Conference and
Exhibition, Brian Wood — Planning
& Economics Director, said new
renewables-based capacity includes three large-scale solar PV schemes each of around 500 MW
capacity. For now, they are referred to as Solar IPP 2022, Solar IPP 2023 and Solar IPP 2024,
indicating that they are slated to come on stream in the years 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively.
It is expected that the three new solar PV developments will be established in three locations —
Ibri, Manah and Adam — which have been identified as the most ideal for solar-based schemes. In
addition, three new wind-based power developments are planned for procurement and
implementation as Independent Power Projects (IPP) over the 2018-2024 timeframe, according to
Wood.
The Dhofar II Wind IPP is proposed to be a 150 MW capacity scheme with the commercial operation
date set for 2023. The other two wind-based farms — dubbed ‘Wind IPP 2023’ and ‘Wind IPP 2024’
— are sized at 200 MW each with Dhofar and Duqm and likely locations.
The six new renewables-based power projects, together with plans for coal-powered capacity in
Duqm and a first-of-its-kind Waste-to-Energy (WTE) scheme, represent an “ambitious” effort by
OPWP to reduce the nation’s dependence of gas-based power generation for around 97 per cent
of its power consumption. This stems from a fuel diversification strategy that seeks to broaden the
Sultanate’s fuel base to secure its electricity requirements over the long term, said Wood.
“The fuel diversification policy, approved by the government, was given to OPWP to implement in January
this year,” said the executive. “It calls for renewable energy development — that there should be at least a
10 per cent renewable energy contribution by 2025. This is a very ambitious target, but we have a plant for
getting there.”
The new projects, along with the Ibri II Solar IPP and Dhofar Wind Farm, currently under procurement and
implementation, will add up to a total of 2,650 MW of renewables based capacity that will be operational by
2024, he added.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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U.S. crude oil production efficiency continues to improve
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Drilling Productivity Report
U.S. tight oil production increased in 2017, accounting for 54% of total U.S. crude oil production, in
part because of the increasing productivity of new wells. Since 2007, the average first full month of
oil production from new wells in regions tracked by EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) has
generally increased.
These growing initial production rates have helped tight oil production to increase despite
slowdowns in drilling activity when oil prices fell.
The average new well in each DPR region in 2017 produced more oil than wells drilled in previous
years in those same regions, a trend that has persisted for nearly ten consecutive years. More
effective drilling techniques, including the increasing prevalence of hydraulic fracturing and
horizontal drilling, have helped to increase these initial production rates.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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In particular, the injection of more proppant during the hydraulic fracturing process and the ability to
drill longer horizontal components (also known as laterals) have improved well productivity.
This increasing well productivity has supported tight oil production even in years such as 2015,
when crude oil prices fell and rig counts dropped. In 2016, rig counts continued to decline sharply
and total tight oil production decreased for the first time in 10 years.
Fewer wells were drilled; however, those that were drilled were drilled more quickly and located in
more productive areas, which led to increased per-well production and profitability.
As rig counts continue to recover from decreases that occurred during 2015 and 2016, producers
have increasingly targeted the Permian region, which spans parts of western Texas and eastern
New Mexico.
The geological structure in the Permian region is more complicated than in other regions, and it took
producers more time to advance the drilling and completion technology in the region. However, the
Permian region is larger and has more potential for oil production than other regions. Total
production and production per new well have increased in the Permian for 11 consecutive years.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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India’s oil Prices are rising,threatening to choke off growth.
By Mihir Sharma
From about the beginning of 2017, even skeptics had to admit, India looked to be recovering from
a growth slowdown. Most dramatically, in the last two quarters for which data is available,
investment in physical capital -- which had long been too low for growth to recover -- increased by
12 percent and 10 percent, respectively.
In the first two months of 2018, exports grew by over 9 percent. For once, optimism seemed
warranted: Decent growth and macroeconomic stability seemed likely to bolster optimism,
encourage more investment and launch a virtuous cycle.
Unfortunately, while growth is indeed reviving, the macro-economy isn’t looking all that robust. Most
worryingly, the rupee is just about the worst-performing currency in Asia this year; some
analysts believe that it will, before the end of the year, be cheaper against the dollar than ever
before. Others may not be as gloomy but, across the board, they’ve lowered their forecasts for
India’s currency.
QuicktakeIndia's Aspirations
What’s going on? Well, in part,
the problem is a familiar one:
India’s dependence on
imported oil. The health of the
Indian economy tends to rest
on two great, uncontrollable
factors -- the level of monsoon
rains and the price of oil.
India’s enjoyed a nice run of
low prices and lower import
bills for the past several years,
as crude prices crashed from
over $100 a barrel to near $40
a barrel. But now that
they’ve climbed back to $75 a
barrel and may go higher, India’s again facing worries about inflation, government spending and the
current account deficit.
Back when crude oil prices were at their peak, India was being talked about as one of the “fragile
five” economies most at risk from a tightening of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. The
country’s current account deficit stood at an uncomfortably high 4.8 percent of GDP.
There were even murmurs that India might have to seek relief from the International Monetary Fund,
until the government, spooked into action, imposed a sharp series of import controls -- particularly
on gold, for which India has a ravenous appetite.
Then, luckily, crude oil prices began to crash in the middle of 2014. So did the current account
deficit, falling to 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2016-17. Now things are heading in the opposite direction:
Kotak Institutional Equities worries that during 2018-19, India’s current account deficit could be as
high 2.9 per cent of GDP.
- 10. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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In itself, that wouldn’t be a crisis. India has more than enough dollar reserves; capital inflows show
no signs of stopping. But, the trend has been ugly enough for the rupee to crash and for worries
about inflation to return.
The central bank committee that sets monetary policy for India released the minutes of its last
meeting recently and most members seem to think that the Reserve Bank of India might need to
act soon. In other words, the incipient recovery might be choked off by higher rates even before it
properly begins.
It’s a frustrating rerun: Once again, India’s insatiable thirst for imports seems destined hold it back.
But, that’s really only half the story. While the cost of imports is rising, exports, in a well-run
economy, should be rising to compensate.
Instead, India has consistently under-performed as an exporter. After the healthy start to 2018,
export growth turned negative in March. Four years ago, India exported $310 billion worth of goods
a year.
Now, it exports $302 billion a
year -- the lowest, as a
percentage of GDP, in a
decade and a half. And anemic
world trade isn’t to blame. Four
years ago, Vietnam’s
exports were $150 billion; in
2017, at $213 billion, they were
worth 43 percent more.
India’s failure isn’t the inability
to wean itself off imported
crude. It’s that it has failed to
compete in world markets so it
can pay for the oil it needs.
India has wasted the easy
years since 2014, when it
should have reformed its export
processes, cut red tape,
backed its manufacturers and
pushed them to go out and
create new markets. Instead, export processes are by and large just as complex and inefficient as
they were four years ago.
Tax incentives for exporters have been withdrawn, tax refunds withheld and the entire orientation
of India’s economy turned inward. Instead of building up exports, India has decided to try and ward
off imports; the government has raised tariffs across the board, for the first time in a generation.
There’s still time to reverse things. If the rupee does in fact hit record lows, India shouldn’t mourn.
It should see the new level as a boost for its exporters, an unhoped-for reduction in the price of
Indian goods. The government should follow up by slashing red tape and the tariffs that keep Indian
companies from integrating with global supply chains. India’s import dependence need not be a
chronic disease. There is a cure: exports.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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NewBase May 02 - 2018 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil rises on Iran sanction worries, but surging US supplies cap market
Reuters + Bloomberg + NewBase
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, pushed up by concerns that the United States may reimpose
sanctions on major exporter Iran, although soaring U.S. supplies capped gains.
Brent crude oil futures were at $73.42 per barrel at 0658 GMT, up 29 cents, or 0.4 percent from
their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, or 0.7 percent,
at $67.70 per barrel.
Sentiment has also been bullish in physical markets, where Dubai and Malaysian crudes in April
traded at their highest prices since November, 2014 at $68.27 and $75.70 per barrel respectively.
Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC), re-emerged as a
major oil exporter in January, 2016 when international sanctions against Tehran were lifted in return
for curbs on Iran's nuclear program.
Oil price special
coverage
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Iran's oil exports hit 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the Oil Ministry's news agency SHANA
reported on Tuesday, a record since the lifting of sanctions, with China and India buying more than
half of Iran's oil.
The United States, however, has expressed doubts over Iran's sincerity in implementing those curbs
and President Donald Trump has threatened to re-impose sanctions. Trump will decide by May 12
whether to restore U.S. sanctions on Tehran, which would likely result in a reduction in its oil exports.
"If Trump abandons the deal, he risks a spike in global oil prices ... There-introduction of U.S.
sanctions would hurt Iran's ability to transact in dollars," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity
strategy at Saxo Bank.
"A reintroduction of sanctions without seeing other OPEC-members increase production could
remove an estimated 300,000-500,000 bpd of Iranian barrels," he added. Some analysts, however,
said there was a risk that prices could slump as too many oil traders were betting on renewed
sanctions.
"If the geopolitical tension subsides or results in a smaller supply disruption than currently priced in,
we are likely to see a sharp pull-back in investor positioning and an even sharper correction in oil
prices than the $5 or so that might be warranted even as macro uncertainties persist," U.S. bank
Citi said in a note to investors.
Beyond the threat of new Iran sanctions, other factors prevented crude prices from rising further,
including a rising dollar since mid-April as well as soaring U.S. supplies, traders said. U.S. crude
inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels to 432.575 million in the week to March 27, according to a
report by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.
Rising inventories are in part a result of soaring U.S. production, which has jumped by a quarter in
the last two years to 10.6 million bpd, making the United States the world's number two crude oil
producer behind only Russia, with 11 million bpd.
More U.S. oil will likely flow. U.S. drillers added five oil rigs looking for new production in the week
to April 27, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes, bringing the total count to a March,
2015 high of 825.
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release May 02-2018
Not Everyone Gets Why OPEC Is Determined to Stick With Cuts
By Grant Smith
Optimism OPEC ministers in Vienna will salvage a deal to cut production reverberated through the
financial markets, spurring oil's biggest gain in two weeks and sending stocks of energy producers
and currencies of commodity-exporting nations higher. Photographer: Vincent Mundy/Bloomberg
OPEC and Russia seem determined to keep on cutting production even after their campaign to
rebalance world oil markets achieved its main target. The primary justification for doing so looks
shaky.
Sixteen months of output curbs have all but eliminated surplus oil inventories and prices are near a
three-year high. But Saudi Arabia says the “mission is not accomplished yet” and is urging fellow
producers to keep output restrained to fulfill a new priority: encouraging companies around the world
to invest more in future supply.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries isn’t the only voice warning about lack of
spending on new oil projects. Influential figures from the International Energy Agency to the boss of
French oil giant Total SA have warned that a supply shortage could emerge early next decade after
a period of deep spending cuts. Under-investment could push prices as high as $300 a barrel within
a few years, prominent hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said in a tweet this week.
Yet there’s also no shortage of people who see OPEC’s concern about investment as a pretext for
prolonging a strategy that keeps oil prices as high as possible. First-quarter earnings showed major
companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Eni SpA and Chevron Corp. are spending less but still
expanding production thanks to cost cuts. U.S. oil drillers are deploying more rigs and maxing out
pipelines.
At current prices the industry is already on track to deliver the extra output the world needs,
according to Rystad A/S.
OPEC's New Goal May Already Be Achieved
Rystad says global investment is on track to deliver the necessary supplies
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“Over the next 10 years, we see that supply will continue to keep up with demand growth,” said
Espen Erlingsen, an analyst at Oslo-based consultant Rystad. “The surge in North American shale
activity and start up of new fields are the main drivers for this growth.”
Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said at a meeting of OPEC ministers last month that
the world needs to invest enough to provide 4 million to 5 million barrels of additional daily oil-
production capacity each year. That amount -- roughly equivalent to a new Iraq -- is needed to meet
growing demand and make up for supplies lost to natural decline.
Investment is the “most important metric” for gauging how long OPEC and Russia’s cuts need to
continue, Al-Falih said. The group will examine this proposal along with a “menu” of other possible
targets at its next meeting in late June, he said.
There’s little doubt that energy companies have curbed investment on new projects since prices
slumped almost four years ago. The IEA says spending dropped about $338 billion, or 44 percent,
between 2014 and 2017.
It’s also true that production from existing fields decreases naturally every single year. Supplies
equivalent to the whole North Sea were lost to natural decline in 2017, the IEA estimates.
Cheaper Barrels
However, a modest recovery in spending already seems to be underway as crude prices rise,
according to the IEA. The downturn has spurred companies to operate more efficiently. In the last
few years decline rates at mature fields have undergone a “remarkable deceleration,” notably in the
North Sea and Russia, the agency said.
New projects have become much cheaper as companies pressured suppliers and simplified their
designs. BP Plc cut the costs for its Mad Dog oil field in the Gulf of Mexico by 60 percent. Statoil
ASA’s Johan Castberg field in Norway will now turn a profit at $35 a barrel, compared with $80
estimated just a few years ago.
The upshot is that it costs less to expand global oil production today than it did back in 2014. Rystad
said industry spending in recent years will deliver the necessary 7 percent growth in global oil
production to just over 103 million barrels a day by the end of the decade. That trend will continue
over the next 10 years if oil remains between $60 and $70 a barrel, it said.
It's Going to be Alright
Oil investments are on track to deliver 103 million b/d in 2020
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Even if the projections from Rystad, which also provides data to the IEA, prove to be spot on, OPEC
needs something more immediate as a basis for its decision on whether to continue or phase out
production cuts.
Yet the timeliness of hard data on investment is questionable. The oil-inventory numbers from
industrialized nations that OPEC has used up until now arrive with a delay of about two months, but
the latest figures on spending reflect the state of the market 12 to 24 months ago.
“We only know capex expenditures when earnings reports are out, and even then forward guidance
can be changed,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas
SA in London. “In addition, pin-pointing when first production will take place after capex spending is
subject to uncertainty. Projects can be delayed for various reasons including budget over-runs,
technical hurdles, etcetera.”
Muddy Waters
This lack of clarity may suit Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom is burdened with weighty domestic spending commitments and military involvement
in Yemen, while also seeking a rich valuation for the partial listing of its state oil company. It’s
seeking prices of $80 a barrel, people familiar with the matter say, compared with about $74 for
Brent crude currently.
Showing concern about investment is a way to mask OPEC’s main aim, according to Mike Wittner,
head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA.
“Talking about the need for more investment is a way of saying: ‘Hey, world, we’re OPEC and we
want higher prices, but we’re actually doing you a favor’,” said Wittner. “In the end, it’s about
revenues.
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