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PCRF Market Research
1.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved PCRF Market Research Karthik Ethirajan November 2012
2.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved I. Market Size II. Market Trends III. Competitive Landscape 1. Macro Trends 2. Convergent Billing 3. Flexible Pricing 4. User Experience 5. New Data and VAS 6. New Partner Business Models 7. Network Transformation 8. Marketing Campaigns 9. Regulatory Environment Agenda
3.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved SOS market size is $4 billion and projected to grow at 24% CAGR to $7.7 billion by 2015
4.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Convergent Charging Market $1.7B in 2012 $3.9B by 2016 CAGR 27% Software 60%, Services 40% Primarily driven by Wireless operators NA 7% EMEA 40% APAC 50% CALA 3% Worldwide TAM Regional TAM
5.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Policy Market $0.8B in 2012 $1.9B by 2016 CAGR 27% Wireless 87%, Fixed Line 13% NA 21% EMEA 32% APAC 38% CALA 9% Worldwide TAM Regional TAM
6.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Market trends in the US and globally, are creating the conditions for greater adoption of alternative mobile communications services • Mobile Adoption: There are over 6B mobile subscriptions globally vs. 1B 10 years ago. Landlines peaked at 1.3B in 2006 and are in decline. • Smartphone Headroom: Of the 6B mobiles, only 1B are smartphones. The US is ahead of the world with 50% of the devices being smartphones. • Urbanization: Concentration of the global population to urban areas will continue to stress the cellular infrastructure and drive the deployment of Wi-Fi • Share of Wallet: US households on average have reduced their spending on such things as dining out (-$48), entertainment (-$126) and apparel (-$141) to be able to afford their rising expenditures on wireless service. • Recouping LTE $’s: Carriers are moving their subs to usage based data plans to recoup the cost of LTE and to drive revenue growth. • Connected Devices: By 2020 the total connected mobile devices is expected to double to 12B driven by non-phone devices. 29% of US adults already have a tablet or eReader. • Satisfaction with Carriers: Customer satisfaction with US wireless carriers declines again this year to just 70%. High satisfaction levels for smartphone devices (iPhone) are artificially inflating consumers real feelings about carriers. MacroTrends 1
7.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Consolidation of billing and charging systems across services, networks and/or subscribers Market Trend Real World Example Implications Reduce number of billing systems Verizon Business embarked on a billing transformation project to reduce 30 billing systems after MCI acquisition to 4 Operators embark on long-term billing transformation projects in part to reduce OpEx Operators are looking to gain flexibility around service features, service bundles and pricing Post/prepaid services Vodacom Tanzania Fixed/Wireless networks Orange Cote d’ivoire and ALU CTBC in Brazil enabled a fair usage quota across its networks 3G/4G networks Bell Canada and Openet Consolidate all Asian subsidiaries Telenor and Huawei Consumer/Enterprise customers Brazilian mobile operator and Orga Cable/Wi-Fi Cablevision lets its broadband subs to access its public hotspots for free ConvergentBilling 2
8.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Flexible pricing models based on real-time usage, location, content, etc. Market Trend Real World Example Implications Dynamic pricing based on real-time usage Telecom Italia allows its IPTV subs to access prepaid VoD content Dynamic pricing is key to selling from OTT and other content providers DPI capability is needed to decipher traffic type Mashups of location, context, billing and other capabilities are needed to roll out new service offerings Zero-rated content packages Orange offers unlimited access to Facebook in Eastern Europe Orange Tunisia allows free access to Wikipedia in specific languages Location-based pricing Pakistan operator Zong’s cost of voice and data session varies with subscriber’s location Armenian operator VivaCell-MTS charge variable rates based on the subscriber’s location Time-based pricing Some operators charge a premium for bandwidth “boost” during peak usage hours for certain services FlexiblePricing 3
9.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Market Trend Real World Example Implications Single user profile One of the biggest selling points of Triple Play is user convenience arising from a single profile Subscriber management is a key service differentiator Identity remains the same as subs move across devices and networks Improves customer stickiness and reduces churn Employees using company phones could retain the operator’s services for personal Corporate controlled services Usage controlled postpaid plan from AMC, an Albanian operator Shared family plans with member controls Impose caps to not to exceed credit balance or set usage limits to individuals Hybrid prepaid/postpaid plans An Indonesian operator allows a company to pay for mobile device usage during certain hours, with all other usage applied to a prepaid plan paid for by the employee Parental controls Fixed line service TalkTalk in UK uses a combination of policy and DPI to do URL filtering for parental controls UserExperience 4 Enhancing user experience by simplifying identity and empowering enterprise and consumers to self-manage their usage levels
10.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Launch of new data and other services to better monetize upgraded network infrastructure Market Trend Real World Example Implications Service tiers NA operators changed unlimited data plans to tiered data plans Operators are looking to better tie bandwidth consumption to the price being charged Operators look to increase ARPU by upselling value- added services Shared data plans Verizon introduced family plans where a “bucket” of data can be shared among family members or across devices Day passes Rogers offers day pass options to its voice customers that allow them to combine web browsing and access to social network sites with email and mobile messaging for a daily rate VAS UNE in Colombia offer VAS over LTE Saudi Telecom block calls during prayer time using location, time of day, and time of year to determine those hours NewDataandVAS 5
11.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Operators encounter innovative business models when interfacing with new partners such as OTT, Cloud, M2M, etc. Market Trend Real World Example Implications Content packages from OTT providers Bundling a specific application or service such as gaming or HD video with a guaranteed QoS or bandwidth as a way to better monetize OTT services OTT applications may need real-time management and QoS to ensure its SLA with 3rd party content providers Many new business models require an integrated policy/charging suite Ability to do real- time management of high volume transactions from M2M Cloud services Many cloud models such as Naas, exposing APIs to developers, and others are emerging. AT&T exposed its Watson speech recognition APIs to developers. Revenue assurance Operators must pay their partners for 3rd party content regardless of whether they are able to recover revenue from their subscribers Mobile money or “Stored Value” credit Oi Brazil allows subs to pay for small purchase, such as taxi rides, from funds in their prepaid balance NTT DoCoMo’s osaifu keitai is a mobile wallet service M2M providers Best Buy offers MVNO service for connected devices and home appliances NewPartnerBusinessModels 6
12.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Operators are looking to transform legacy systems and better utilize network resources to meet growing subscribers and data demand Market Trend Real World Example Implications Traffic-based rating Orange Botswana charges higher rates during peak hours Real-time management of bandwidth is fundamental to many new services Launch of cloud- based and other IP-based services necessitate network and OSS/BSS upgrades Congestion management An operator could opt to prioritize the service of its more lucrative customers who have exhibited a high propensity to churn in order to optimize its retention rates New services (e.g., PacketCable 2.0) enabled by IMS and FTTH upgrades Network upgrades by Fixed and Wireline operators are often accompanied by convergent charging transformations to support new and innovative services from fixed/mobile convergence Transformation of IN- based systems Legacy IN-based prepaid systems are getting consolidated with software-based postpaid systems NetworkTransformation 7
13.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Customer acquisition & retention initiatives require mashups of capabilities such as location, real-time contextual data, etc. Market Trend Real World Example Implications Real-time campaign management DST Brunei is delivering targeted contextual campaigns to subscribers and automatically deliver rewards New innovative marketing campaigns rely on a combination of location, real-time contextual data, subs profile, and others Customer acquisition & Loyalty programs Ukrainian operator Astelit’s customer acquisition program under its life:) brand gives top-up credits to subscribers who bring new customers Astelit’s loyalty programs under Lady life:) brand lets subscribers receive points redeemable at retail partners for bringing on new customers Churn reduction In the Philippines, Globe Telecom addressed high churn rates by providing subscribers with unlimited free voice calling between Globe handsets and any landline within a specific geographic area MarketingCampaigns 8
14.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Regulatory climate is either helpful in spurring innovation or creates an impasse Regulation Real World Example Implications “Bill Shock” regulation in EU Once a subscriber’s bill reaches a certain limit operators are required to implement, • Real-time subscriber spend notifications • Cut-off mechanism BT alerts a user close to usage threshold and provide different offers and PAYGO pricing options Operator could turn regulatory hurdle into a revenue opportunity by extending an offer real-time to subs Operators, for example, cannot penalize OTT services Operators may hold back on implementing DPI to prioritize one set of data packet differently from another Net Neutrality regulation by FCC This regulation for “fair usage” is still evolving for fixed line operators. Current version requires operators not to disadvantage certain services based by probing traffic pattern. Net Neutrality regulation in Netherlands Bars operators from charging a premium for consumers’ use of specific services or applications RegulatoryEnvironment 9
15.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Competitors include traditional BSS & ISV players with NEPs and IT vendors taking a stronger hold on the market Able to integrate BSS capabilities in GGSN, other network elements Active M&A Highly scalable support and services organizations Financial stability Existing relationships with operators Network Equipment Providers (NEPs) IT Vendors BSS Specialists and ISVs Policy and Charging decision makers are increasingly IT folks Active M&A Expertise in handling large-scale transformation projects Organic growth High growth startups Gained traction in emerging markets Highly customized solutions
16.
© 2012 Karthik
Ethirajan, all rights reserved Charging and Policy markets are oligopolic Charging Policy Convergent Charging market is oligopolic with 8 NEPs, billing and ISV vendors holding three-forth share of the market PCRF market is oligopolic with half the market composed of smaller regional players
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