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Emergency Risk Management
Author(s): Alan Hodges
Reviewed work(s):
Source: Risk Management, Vol. 2, No. 4 (2000), pp. 7-18
Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3867920 .
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RiskManagement: InternationalJournal
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                 Emergency               Risk      Management


                                   byAlanHodges1
     Thepublicationin 1995 of an Australian -New Zealand              on
                                                          Standard RiskManagement
     provideda logical andsystematic processfor examining anddetermining
                                                          risk                   treatment
     options. After national consultation, the approachtaken by the standard has been
     adaptedto makeit appropriateto the needs of theAustralianemergencymanagement
     community. resultant
                 The          policy of emergencyriskmanagement now underpinning
                                                                      is
     management-level   emergencymanagement     trainingand is to be appliedat a practical
     level in communitysettings.

              Key Words: Risk; risk management; emergency management;
                                 disaster management


                                        Introduction

Theprotectionof life, property the environment
                              and                fromtheeffects of disastersis a responsibility
of State governmentsin Australia.The Federalgovernment no constitutionalrole, but it has
                                                          has
an obvious interestin such matters. addition,disastersareinevitablypoliticalandmediaevents,
                                  In
and are the focus of widespreadattention.

Twenty-fiveyears ago the FederalGovernmentestablishedEmergencyManagement            Australia2
(EMA)   to coordinatephysical assistanceto the Statesduringdisasters.While this coordinationis
an importantand continuingrole, EMA is also heavily involved in working with the States to
raise emergency managementcapabilities across the nation.It does this throughdevelopment
anddelivery of educationandtrainingat middle-to upper-management      levels, and by providing
leadershipin promotingpolicies, practicesand arrangements   throughcooperativeFederal-State
committee arrangements. is in this environmentthatEMA, over the last five years, has been
                          It
promoting   emergencyriskmanagement the fundamental
                                       as                basisfordetermining  how to minimize
threatsto life and propertyfrom both naturaland technologicaldisasters.

                                                -
In this paperthe approachtakenin the Australian New ZealandRisk ManagementStandard    is
examined. Variouscatalysts of change for the integration risk managementinto emergency
                                                         of
managementare then identified. Finally, the implicationsfor emergency risk managementare
examined. For this paper,the following definitionsapply:

   * 'risk': the chance of somethinghappeningthat will have an impact upon objectives. It is
     measuredin terms of consequencesand likelihood;3

   * 'risk management': the culture, processes and structuresthat are directed towards the
     effective managementof potentialopportunities adverseeffects;4
                                                   and

   * 'emergencyrisk management':a systematicprocessproducinga rangeof measureswhich
     contributeto the well-being of communitiesandthe environment.5




Copyright© 2000 PerpetuityPress Ltd                                                    Page 7
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                             The risk management standard

In 1992, StandardsAustraliaraisedby circularletterthe needfor a standard risk management.
                                                                       on
The following year,JeanCross, Professorof Safety Engineeringat the Universityof New South
Wales,chaireda widely-representative JointTechnicalCommitteewhichworkedduringthe next
two yearsto develop an Australian- New Zealand Standard Risk Management(ANS/NZS
                                                           on
4360: 1995). Before publicationof the standard,ProfessorCrosswrotethat:

                                     since its impact depend the extentto which
      Theimplications as yet uncertain
                    are                             will      on
               and
      government major         decide takeupthestandard
                        industry     to                  ...6

Althoughthe standard   mightreceive littleattention,she consideredthat,in view of the significant
interestat the public comment stage of its development,this was unlikely.

Herconfidencewas well placed. The standard had a significantimpactin Australiaand New
                                             has
Zealandand has attractedworldwide attention.It was revised and republishedin April 1999,7
and it is this later publication which will be used here in describing the approach to risk
management.

Figure 1 below providesan outline of the main steps in the process.In essence, risk management
is the systematicapplicationof managementpolicies, proceduresand practices to the tasks of
establishingthe context, and to those of identifying, analyzing,evaluating and treatingrisks.
Monitoring review,andcommunication consultation, alsokey elementsof the process.
            and                           and                are


                           Figure I. Risk management overview




A more detailedexplanationof the risk managementprocess is shown in Figure 2 below. The
standardprovidesquite detailed guidancefor each aspect of thatprocess.




 Page 8                                                                            Alan Hodges
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                Figure 2. Risk management process




                                      i   T-

                           Establish the context
                  *        The strategiccontext
                  *        The organizationalcontext
                  *        The risk managementcontext
                  *        Develop criteria
                  *        Decide the structure


                                      v


                              Identify risks
            4     *         What can happen?                       4      t

                  *         How can it happen?

                                          v


                                Analyze risks


                           Determine existing risks

     cj-~
                      Determine                     Determine
                      likelihood                   consequences
     0
     ct
                                                                               a0


     E:
     E                           l                      I                     .-
                                                                               0
                                                                               tt


     C                       Estimatelevel of risk
                                                                               0
                                                                               ;..


                                                                              .1
                                                                               r:


     u                                                                         0




                                          v

                               Evaluate risks
                       *      Compareagainstcriteria
                       *      Set risk priorities




                                          t
                                 Treat risks
                      *      Identify treatment
                                              options
                      *      Evaluatetreatment  options
                      *      Select treatmentoptions
                      *      Preparetreatment plans
                      *      Implementplans
                                              I


                                              I




Alan Hodges                                                                          Page 9
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The first step is to examine the strategic,organizationaland risk managementcontext within
which the analysis will take place. In this step it is appropriate examinethe criteriaagainst
                                                                   to
which risks will be evaluated and to determinethe structure, set of elements, for subsequent
                                                               or
analysis.It is important examinationof the context is undertaken the outset,to providethe
                        that                                          at
framework the following risk analysis.This requiresa thoroughexamination the operating
             for                                                                   of
               and
environment a full understanding organizational
                                     of                 policies andgoals, so as to decidewhether
a risk is acceptableor not.

The second step involves identificationof all the risks which need to be managed,togetherwith
possible causes and effects. If risks arenot recognizedin this step, it is unlikelythatthey will be
controlled.In an organizationalsetting, it is also necessary to considerrisks which are outside
the entity's control.

Analysisof risk,the thirdstep, has two key elements:likelihoodandconsequences. combining
                                                                                By
analyses of these elements, an estimate of the level of risk can be derived in the context of
existing controlmeasures. During the analysis stage, minor, acceptablerisks can be identified
and put to one side. Depending on the degree of risk and the availabilityof accuratedata and
resources available, analysis may be qualitative, semi-quantitativeor quantitative.When a
                     is
qualitativeapproach used, the level of risk can be estimatedas extreme,high, moderateor low.
A possibleallocationof these estimatesfor differentcombinations likelihoodandconsequences
                                                                of
is shown in Table 1 below.


                                Table I. Qualitative level of risk

                                              Consequences
 Likelihood
                Insignificant       Minor        Moderate            Major      Catastrophic
 Almost               H               H              E                E               E
 certain

 Likely              M                H              H                E               E

 Moderate             L              M               H                E               E

 Unlikely             L               L              M                H               E

 Rare                 L               L              M                H              H

 Legend:E = extreme,H = high, M = moderate,L = low.



Aftertheanalysisprocess,the riskscan be evaluated.  This involves a comparisonbetweenthe level
of riskidentified the previously-established criteria.
                 and                          risk          Fromthiscanbe deriveda list of risks
in priorityorder.Some of these mightbe at such a level thatthe riskcanbe acceptedandtreatment
maynotbe required. Nevertheless, theyshouldbe documented,    monitored periodically
                                                                       and           reviewed
to ensurethatthey remainacceptable.The otherrisks will requirefurther   consideration.

Forthoseriskswhich areunacceptable,fouroptions (which arenot necessarilyall appropriate
                                                                                      or
mutuallyexclusive in all circumstances)are available:




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   * Avoidingthe risk. Very careful considerationneeds to be given to such a course, as the
     level of otherrisks might potentiallybe increased.

  * Reducingthe likelihood.Modifying the hazardcan be undertaken a range of measures,
                                                                  by
    dependingon the circumstances.For instance, it might requirerevision of organizational
    arrangements,                 of                                 of
                   implementation preventativemeasures,application technicalcontrols,
    or initiationof researchand development.

  * Reducing the consequences. The impact can be reduced by such means as contingency
    planning,recovery plans, engineeringand structural       and
                                                     barriers, design features.

   * Transferringthe risk. By use of contracts, insurance arrangements    and organizational
     structures(such as partnerships),the risk can be transferred shared. However, such
                                                                   or
     arrangements may not reduce the level of risk to society. Additionally,there is the added
     dangerthat the organizationwhich has the new responsibilitymay not manage that risk.

Despite these actions, there may be residual risk which is retained.Planningwill thereforebe
requiredto managethe consequencesof this.

Following the identificationof options for risk treatment,therewill be a need for an assessment
process. The process should take account of the extent of risk reductionand the likely benefits
which can be achieved. Obviously, high reductionin risk for low cost should be implemented.
As the costs rise and the benefits diminish, careful judgement will be required, and there
may come a point where it is clearly uneconomic to increase expenditure to lower the risk
further.Again, in such cases judgement is required so as to reduce the risk impact to as low
a level as is reasonably practicable.

Plans must then be prepared,for implementing the selected options, to enable management
to control the risks. Such plans should identify responsibilities, the actions required,
performancemeasures, and the expected outcomes of treatments,and should provide a basis
for assessing effectiveness. While responsibility for risk treatmentis best placed with those
able to control the risk, a management system is also requiredwhich ensures that the plan is
effectively implemented.As shown in Figures 1 and 2 above, the need to monitor and review
is part of a closed loop sequence. There is a constant need to be alert to changing
circumstances,as risks will change over time, in respect of eitherthe likelihood of occurrences,
or their consequences, or both. Identification of a regular review process would be a very
sensible inclusion in the plan.

A majordifferencebetween the 1995 and 1999 standards inclusionin the latterof the need for
                                                      is
communication consultation.Experiencehas shown thatthese actions,for both internaland
                and
externalstakeholders, requiredfor every stage of the process.Communication to be two-
                      are                                                  has
way to enable effective consultationto occur.

Eachstage also requiresdocumentation be completedso as to satisfyan independent
                                   to                                         audit.The
inclusionof assumptions,methods,datasourcesandresultswill producean audittrailwhich will
demonstrate process. Such documentation
            the                          will also make subsequent monitoringand review
muchsimpler.

Whilethe standard not introduced
                    has            significantlynew conceptsto theanalysisandmanagement
of risk, its developmentand subsequentendorsementhas definitely been of immense benefit.
The thoroughprocess of consultation,implementationand eventualrevision has resulted in a
risk-management    approachwhich has gained wide acceptancein Australiaand New Zealand.




Alan Hodges                                                                            Page 11
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There is an agreedmethodology which is well understoodand acceptedand, as a result, use of
the standard'sapproach now being increasinglydemandedin riskanalysis,by bothgovernment
                       is
and privateenterprise.

A majorbenefit of the standardis the strongemphasis it gives to identifyingrisk as an integral
partof the management                                                          teamto undertake
                        process, as well as to the need for a multi-disciplinary
risk analysis. On the other hand, undertaking thoroughrisk analysis should not be taken on
                                                 a
lightly. The step-by-stepprocess in the standardcan demand a majorcommitmentof staff to
carryit out thoroughly, certainlyrequiresfull supportat managementlevel.
                        and

There has been interestby other countriesin the approach,but none has so far gone to the next
step of developing an agreed standard.This is surprising, given the internationalinterest in
this topic and the benefits which would flow from the formal endorsementof a standardby
national or multi-nationalstandardsorganizations.Such a developmenttask need not appear
daunting;in fact, it is likely to result in wide interest and involvement. It requires,however, a
small group of 'champions'who are preparedto take chargeof the projectand drive it through
to fruition.


                   Catalysts of change in emergency management



Guidelinesfor managingrisk in the AustralianPublic Service
The mere publicationof a standardwhich provides a generic guide on risk managementis, in
itself, insufficientto ensure that it is adoptedby an industrysector.Althoughthe standardcan
contributeto change, other 'drivers' are required;several of those relating to the emergency
managementsectorare describedin the following paragraphs.

In 1995 the Management Advisory Committee and Management Improvement Advisory
Committeeof theAustralian  PublicServiceissuedan 'exposuredraft'on GuidelinesforManaging
Risk in the AustralianPublic Service. The final document8was publishedthe following year.
Althoughit was directedprimarilyat goverment agencies, the approach was widely applicable
in the community.In essence, the Guidelinesprovidedan easily-readableexplanationof the use
of the risk managementstandardin government,and also included a numberof case studies
illustratingpersuasivesuccess stories.

The Guidelinesnotethatthe alternative riskmanagement riskymanagement.
                                     to                is                 They highlight
thatmanagingriskrequiresrigorous,responsible,balancedandforwardthinking.They promote
the standard's
             formalstep-by-stepprocess for significantdecisions, such as:

*     policy changes;

*    projectmanagement;

*     the management sensitive issues;
                   of

*               involving significant sums of money; and
      expenditure

*     the introduction new proceduresand strategies.
                     of

                                                        even if only in an informalmanner,
Moreover,the Guidelinesalso encourageuse of the approach,
in all decision-making,as risk is inherentin all we do.




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The Guidelines               in
             were significant raisingawareness the standard's
                                             of                    withingovernment
                                                            approach
        andcertainly
agencies,                 inpreparing ground change thefieldof emergency
                   assisted         the     for      in                 management.


National emergency risk managementworkshop
The publicationof the standardin 1995 excited interest among a numberof staff members of
EMA and otheremergency managementpractitioners. a result of their influence, in March
                                                    As
1996 EMA conducteda nationalworkshopat its AustralianEmergencyManagementInstituteto
considerthe application the risk managementconceptto emergencymanagementin Australia.
                       of
There was an awareness,however, that this workshophad potentialto create division, as there
was strongnationalacceptanceof the existing approachto emergencymanagementin Australia.
This approach involved concepts of:

    * 'all hazards' single set of management
                  (a                                         of          all
                                                      capable encompassing hazards);
                                           arrangements

    * 'all agencies' (the establishmentof arrangements
                                                     involving all agencies);

    * 'a comprehensive        (planning
                      approach'         whichinvolvesall fourelementsof a 'PPRR'process,
      ie prevention,
                   preparedness,response and recovery);and

                  community' (recognizingthe communityas a primaryfocus of emergency
    * the 'prepared
      management).

Although the PPRRareas are not mutuallyexclusive, there had been a tendency for each to be
seen to some extent as separatefunctions, thereby leading to differing levels of interest and
support,regardlessof communitybenefits.

Over 30 participants from emergencyservice organizations,local government, State government
agencies, the insuranceindustryand industrialorganizations attendedthe workshop.Following
presentations,discussions breakout
                        and                                              agreed9 the risk
                                     sessionsoverthreedays,theparticipants       that
management   standardwouldbe of valuetoAustralianemergency management  arrangements because:

*     governmentsand corporationsare increasinglyusing risk management
                                                                     processes;

*     the risk management process provides a common language and process across all
      organizations;

*      it is a formalized,systematicprocess of analysis and decision-making;

*      emergencymanagementcan be promotedmore effectively throughrisk management;and

*      emergencymanagementshould dovetail into the broaderrisk management
                                                                        process.

Workshop   participants agreedthatspecific guidelineswere necessaryfor the implementation
                      also
of the standardwithin the emergency managementindustry.It was also proposedthat the term
'emergencyriskmanagement'be adoptedto reflect the multi-agencyaspect of the industry.
Two key recommendations    from the workshopwere that:

*      Australianemergencymanagementshould embody risk management
                                                                principles;and

*      guidelines (based on the standard)should be developed appropriate the Australian
                                                                        to
       emergencymanagementindustry.




Alan Hodges                                                                         Page 13
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In September1996 these recommendations
                                     were put to Australia'speakemergencymanagement
policy body, the NationalEmergencyManagementCommittee,l°which agreed:

   * 'to commendrisk managementprinciplesas a tool for use in the emergencymanagement
     community';

   * 'thatemergencyrisk managementdocumentation  based on the risk management standard
     shouldbe developedappropriate theAustralian
                                 to            emergencymanagement             needs';
                                                                      industry's
     and

   * 'to incorporatethe risk managementapproachinto relevant educationand trainingand
     into principlesand practicepublications."'

Subsequent action was by no means immediate. There was a lack of understanding the  of
implicationsin manyareasand a fear thatexisting concepts andprinciples,whichhave stood the
emergencymanagement    communityin good stead, would be abandoned.   Whatfollowed was an
extensive periodof communicationand consultation,an experience which was to be influential
in includingthese approachesin the 1999 revision of the standard.


                                 Supporting publications

In mid-1996 PatrickHelm, of the Department the PrimeMinisterandCabinetin New Zealand,
                                          of
publisheda paper12 a Ministryof Civil Defencejoural. This was important raisingawareness
                   in                                                   in
of the applicationof the risk managementprocess in the disastercontext.

Thegeneralriskmanagement       approach not new to New Zealand,
                                        was                        whichsince 1987hadadopted
a policy of sharing management
                   risk               betweencentralgovernment local authorities. policy
                                                                 and                The
required localauthorities identifyhazards theirareasof responsibility to introduce
                         to                 in                         and           strategies
to reducethe consequences disasters.
                            of          Thisrequired comprehensive
                                                     a                         to
                                                                     approach loss prevention
and risk management. somewhatsimilarscheme has more recentlybeen adoptedin Australia,
                       A
wherebythe Federal   government's   financialcontribution Statesto assistrecoveryfromrecurrent
                                                         to
         is
disasters contingent appropriate
                      on              mitigationmeasures beingtakenat Stateandlocalgovernment
levels. The concepthas not been universallywelcomedby local governments, theyalreadyhave
                                                                            as
many competingpressures     for expenditures.  Nor have the New Zealandprinciples been adopted
universallyby  local authoritiesin that country.'3Neverthelessthere is a clearmessage in both
countriesthatdisaster            is
                      mitigation an important               in
                                                component a totalriskmanagement    approach to
protecting  communities fromthe effects of disasters.

Helm also notedthatrisk management'... offers a structured,systematicandconsistentapproach
thatforces the analystinto understanding total riskpicture'.Importantly, saw thatit forms
                                          the                             he
an overlay on the emergency/disaster process, and herehe was challengingthe statusquo. While
AustraliaandNew Zealandsubscribeto the comprehensiveapproach emergencymanagement
                                                                   to
via the PPRRprocess, it would be fair to say thatthe majoremphasisin both countrieshas been
on the capabilityto respondto disasters.Risk management,however,requiresa more thorough
analysis of solutions.For instance,the marginalbenefitfrom the applicationof resourcesto both
preventionandresponseshouldbe equal.Helm emphasizedthateach step in disaster     management
requiredsupport'... commensurate   with its importance potentialfor improving outcome'.'4
                                                      or                      the
In concluding,he statedthat:

      Riskmanagement            of
                       strategies themselves
                                           cannot          better
                                                   guarantee    performance because
                                                                                  of
      boththe role thatchanceand uncertainlyplay, andthe vagariesassociated
                                                                          withhuman




Page 14                                                                         Alan Hodges
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      intervention. themethodologies forassessing cancontribute understanding
                  But                used         risk          to
      where mostserious
            the          components Theycanpoint themore
                                   lie.         to               control
                                                         promising     options,
      assistpolicydevelopment, inform allocation resources.15
                            and        the     of

In mid-1996 an articleby Smithet a116foresaw the possibility of the conceptof riskmanagement
providing botha foundation a culturalshift anda stimulusfor integrating
                           for                                            services.The authors
saw the move towardsthe risk managementapproachas leading to a shift towardsprevention
and increasedservicediversity,to communityempowerment responsibility, to increased
                                                            and                and
inter-agencycooperation.They   also considered that the major focus in Australiahas been on
event management,and so significant capabilitieshave been developed, using both permanent
staff and trainedvolunteers, to combat hazardous events. This has inevitably led to further
investmentof resources responsecapabilities,rather
                       in                           thanrecognizinga moreholisticapproach.

                          issues questioningthe prioritiesgiven to the variousPPRRelements,
This articleraisedimportant
and recognized the need both for close involvement of the community in risk management
processesanddecisions,andfor a muchgreaterunderstanding the vulnerability communities
                                                           of                 of
or elements of communities.Hence, in the emergency managementcontext,risk management
can be very much concernedwith people, with the impact of a hazardon them and with their
response to a situation.

Papers by Salter, Koob and Tarrant17were also important in promoting emergency risk
management.


                    Implications of emergency risk management

Notwithstanding influenceof the NationalEmergencyManagementCommittee its views
                 the                                                       and
on the usefulness of the risk managementapproach,there was a need to have wide industry
involvement in buildinga consensus for adoptingthe risk managementapproach in taking
                                                                          and
the next step of producing guidelines for emergency risk management.A national steering
committeewas formedto develop guidelines which blendedtraditionalemergency management
approacheswith emergencyrisk management.

The EmergencyRiskManagementGuidelines which resultedfollow the varioussteps in Figure
2, but with some variations.Whereasthe standardis directedprimarilytowardsthe analysis of
organizationalrisk, its application to emergency managementrequires a strongemphasis on
community consultation and involvement. This is in distinct contrast to earlier emergency
managementapproaches,     whose prime focus was on hazardanalysis. Such analysisis now part
of a much more comprehensiveapproach.

Communityconsultation     raises the complex issue of involving residentsin identification the
                                                                                          of
                                                 of
types of risks affectingthemandthe probabilities those risksoccurring. outcomecould, for
                                                                        The
instance,reveal unperceived  flooding risks, with a consequentialdownwardeffect on real estate
values, or highlighta small, but neverthelessreal, risk of catastrophic
                                                                      dam failure.Such matters
have the potentialto attractmedia attentionand to escalatevery rapidlyto the politicallevel.

The Guidelinesaretailoredto the emergencymanagementenvironmentin relationto:

  * natural,technological,civil/political (terrorism,
                                                    sabotage)and biologicalhazards;

  * recognitionof various community groupings (geographically-based,
                                                                   shared-experience,
                                    and
    sector-based,functionally-based);




Alan Hodges                                                                         Page 15
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   * inclusion of concepts of resilience and susceptibility,to assist in determiningcommunity
     vulnerability.

A key to the acceptanceof the emergencyrisk managementapproachhas been to incorporate
PPRR as options in the treatment risks - importantly,this is the last step in the sequential
                                  of
process (see Figure 1). Prevention,
                                  preparation, responseandrecoveryeach needto be examined,
and the benefitsassessed as options,in the light of the judgementsmade in the riskmanagement
analysisup to thatpoint.The analysismay well lead to the need for greaterresponsecapabilities,
butsucha decisionwill be madeaftercomparing benefitsof, for instance,enhanced
                                               the                                preventative
measures.

The Guidelines have been incorporated    into a comprehensiveApplications Guide18 have
                                                                                 and
been endorsed by Standards    Australia as an appropriatederivation of AS/NZS 4360: 1999.
Concurrently  with this development,the Public Safety IndustryTrainingAdvisory Body19has
             risk
incorporated management       conceptsandprocessesin the identification commonandsector-
                                                                       of
specific trainingcompetencystandards nationaladoption.
                                       for

As an example, in the competencystandards'managementstream', which is common to all
emergencyservices, fourtraining  units have been developed, covering the five mainsteps in the
riskmanagement   process.Eachof the unitshasthenbeen brokendown intocontributing     elements,
with associated performance  criteria.For instance, the unit 'Establishcontext and develop risk
evaluationcriteria'has 'Clarifystakeholders' roles andrequirements' one of its five elements.
                                                                      as
One of the performance criteria this elementis: 'Stakeholders informedof aims,objectives
                              for                                are
and the risk managementcontextand structure    within which they must operate.'

At the Australian Emergency Management Institute, three new courses ('Introduction to
Emergency Risk Management', 'Understanding Emergency Risk Management' and
'ImplementingEmergencyRisk Management')are being conductedor are in development,as
the foundationof the Institute'scurriculum.Publicationsto supportthe ApplicationsGuide are
also being developed, in the form of 'ImplementationGuides' and an annotatedbibliography.
The courses are criticalcomponents the implementation
                                   of                   strategyas, over time, therewill be a
common nationalapproach implementingemergencyrisk managementwhile the philosophy
                           to
andthe languagearedisseminated    Australia-wide.Moreover,they will be an importantmeansof
providing                        who are skilledin implementingthe Guidelinesin conjunction
          well-trainedfacilitators
with communitygroups.

The next stepis to applytheapproach a practical
                                    in           way. EMAstaffwill workwithStateemergency
management staff to undertakecomprehensive risk assessments at community level. Initial
                                                                                in
communityareasselectedforthesestudiesarethe outerMelbournesuburb Cardinia Victoria,
                                                                      of
the North-WestTasmaniaregion,a ruraltown in South Australia   and the Jarrahdale-Serpentine
Shire, south of Perthin Western Australia.Furthermore, National EmergencyManagement
                                                        the
Committee recently approveda strategic plan which includes an intention to undertakecase
studies in each of the eightAustralianStates and Territories.

If the enthusiasm participants the new coursesis any guide,the development anemergency
                   of            on                                          of
risk management approach has been worthwhile. However, it is still at an early stage of
implementation it will be some time beforeenough people have been throughcoursesfor the
                  and
concept                                      way. A majorchallenge still aheadof us will be to
          to be applied in a business-as-usual
ensurethat the approachis acceptedat the executive level.




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                                                Risk Management: International
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                                       Conclusion

The publicationof the riskmanagementstandard 1995 has providedan extremelyuseful and
                                                   in
systematic   basis for examiningrisk. In its applicationto emergency management, standard
                                                                                   the
has resulted in widespreadcritical re-examinationof the traditionalAustralianapproachto
                                                The
protectionof life, property the environment. development,through
                           and                                          extensiveconsultation,
of emergencyriskmanagement      guidelines is now providinga completelynew basisforexamining
risks to communitiesand for determiningtreatmentoptions as partof the process. The options
stillrequireconsideration traditional
                          of           conceptsof prevention,           responseandrecovery,
                                                              preparation,
and so  the old and the new have been successfully blendedtogetherto createan approach which
is now being introduced   nationallythough publications,training and case studies.


                                           Notes

1                               Director
       AlanHodgeswasuntilrecently              of
                                        General Emergency
                                                        Management        whichis
                                                                  Australia,
       the Federal         agencyresponsible reducing impactof natural man-made
                  government               for      the              and
       disasters theAustralian
               on            community.
2             known theNatural
       Formerly    as        Disasters
                                     Organisation.
3      StandardsAustralia,StandardsNew Zealand (1999) Risk Management,AS/NZS4360: 1999.
                 NSW:
       Strathfield,        Association Australia, 3.
                    Standards        of        p
4      Ibid,p 4.
5      EmergencyMangement                                           Glossary.Canberra:
                        Australia(1998) AustralianEmergencyManagement
       EMA,p 41.
6                                     Standard. Australian
       Cross,J. (1995)TheRiskManagement       The        Journalof Emergency
                                                                           Management.
       Vol. 10,No. 4, pp4-7.
7      Standards      Standards Zealand, cit.
              Australia,      New      op
8              Advisory
       Management             and
                      Committee Management
                                        Improvement             Australian
                                                        Committee,
                                                 Advisory
       PublicService(1995)ReportNo 22: Guidelines ManagingRiskin theAustralian
                                                for                           PublicService.
                       Government
              Australian
       Canberra:                        Service.
                               Publishing
9      EmergencyManagement                       RiskManagement
                         Australia(1996) Emergency                   MountMacedon
                                                              Workshop.
       Paper 5. Canberra:
            No.          Australian
                                  Government         Service.
                                            Publishing
10     TheNational
                 Emergency ManagementCommittee comprises Director
                                                        the              of
                                                                   General Emergency
       Management        as chair, thechairs executive
                 Australia,      and        and         officers eachStateandTerritory
                                                                of
                   management
       peakemergency           committee other
                                       or     nominatedofficers
11     Minutes theNational
             of          Emergency       Committee,
                                 Management      Emergency       Australia,
                                                         Management
       September1996.
12                                       for     and          Disasters.
       Helm,P. (1996)Integrated Management Natural Technological
                              Risk                                     Tephra.
       Vol.15,No. 1,pp5-13.
13     Ibid,p 5.
14     Ibid,p 11.
15     Ibid,p 13.
16     Smith, Nicholson, andCollett, (1996)RiskManagement theFire Emergency
            P.,         J.          L.                   in      and        Services.
       InNDR96. Proceedings the National
                            of          Disaster       conference.
                                               Reduction                           of
                                                                         Institution
                                                                  Canberra:
       EngineersAustralia, 377- 87.
                        pp




Alan Hodges                                                                          Page 17
Risk Management: International
               An            Journal



17    Salter,J. (1995a) Disasters as Manifestationsof Vulnerability. AustralianJournal of Emergency
      Management.    Vol. 10, No. 1, pp 9- 10; Salter,J. (1995b) Towardsa BetterDisaster Management
      Methodology.AustralianJournal of EmergencyManagement.Vol. 10, No. 4, pp 8 - 16; Salter,J.
      (1997) Risk Management a DisasterManagementContext.Journalof Contingenciesand Crisis
                                in
      Management.Vol.5, No. 1, pp 60 - 5; Salter,J. (1999a) PublicSafetyRisk Management:   Assessing
      the LatestNationalGuidelines.AustralianJournal of EmergencyManagement.Vol. 13, No. 4, pp
      50 - 3; Salter,J. (1999b) A Risk ManagementApproachto Disaster Management.In Ingleton,J.
      (ed.) Natural Disaster Management.Leicester: Tudor Rose, pp 111-13; Koob, B. (1996) The
      Contextof EmergencyManagement.        AustralianJournal of EmergencyManagement.Vol. 11,No.
                           M.
      2, pp 1-4; Tarrant, (1997) Risk Communicationin the Context of EmergencyManagement:
      Planning'With'RatherThan 'For' Communities.AustralianJournal of EmergencyManagement.
      Vol. 12,No.4,pp20-8.
18    Emergency ManagementAustralia (2000) Emergency Risk ManagementApplications Guide:
      AustralianEmergencyManual.PartII, Vol. 1. Melbourne:EMA.
19    A company establishedunderFederalgovernmentarrangements the furtherance education
                                                                    for             of
      andtraining thepublicsafetyindustry. boardcomprisesemployerandemployeerepresentatives
                  in                        Its
      from the fire, police, emergencyservices, defence and emergencymanagementsectors.




Page 18                                                                             Alan Hodges

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3867920

  • 1. Emergency Risk Management Author(s): Alan Hodges Reviewed work(s): Source: Risk Management, Vol. 2, No. 4 (2000), pp. 7-18 Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3867920 . Accessed: 30/01/2012 00:47 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. Palgrave Macmillan Journals is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Risk Management. http://www.jstor.org
  • 2. RiskManagement: InternationalJournal An Emergency Risk Management byAlanHodges1 Thepublicationin 1995 of an Australian -New Zealand on Standard RiskManagement provideda logical andsystematic processfor examining anddetermining risk treatment options. After national consultation, the approachtaken by the standard has been adaptedto makeit appropriateto the needs of theAustralianemergencymanagement community. resultant The policy of emergencyriskmanagement now underpinning is management-level emergencymanagement trainingand is to be appliedat a practical level in communitysettings. Key Words: Risk; risk management; emergency management; disaster management Introduction Theprotectionof life, property the environment and fromtheeffects of disastersis a responsibility of State governmentsin Australia.The Federalgovernment no constitutionalrole, but it has has an obvious interestin such matters. addition,disastersareinevitablypoliticalandmediaevents, In and are the focus of widespreadattention. Twenty-fiveyears ago the FederalGovernmentestablishedEmergencyManagement Australia2 (EMA) to coordinatephysical assistanceto the Statesduringdisasters.While this coordinationis an importantand continuingrole, EMA is also heavily involved in working with the States to raise emergency managementcapabilities across the nation.It does this throughdevelopment anddelivery of educationandtrainingat middle-to upper-management levels, and by providing leadershipin promotingpolicies, practicesand arrangements throughcooperativeFederal-State committee arrangements. is in this environmentthatEMA, over the last five years, has been It promoting emergencyriskmanagement the fundamental as basisfordetermining how to minimize threatsto life and propertyfrom both naturaland technologicaldisasters. - In this paperthe approachtakenin the Australian New ZealandRisk ManagementStandard is examined. Variouscatalysts of change for the integration risk managementinto emergency of managementare then identified. Finally, the implicationsfor emergency risk managementare examined. For this paper,the following definitionsapply: * 'risk': the chance of somethinghappeningthat will have an impact upon objectives. It is measuredin terms of consequencesand likelihood;3 * 'risk management': the culture, processes and structuresthat are directed towards the effective managementof potentialopportunities adverseeffects;4 and * 'emergencyrisk management':a systematicprocessproducinga rangeof measureswhich contributeto the well-being of communitiesandthe environment.5 Copyright© 2000 PerpetuityPress Ltd Page 7
  • 3. Risk Management: InternationalJournal An The risk management standard In 1992, StandardsAustraliaraisedby circularletterthe needfor a standard risk management. on The following year,JeanCross, Professorof Safety Engineeringat the Universityof New South Wales,chaireda widely-representative JointTechnicalCommitteewhichworkedduringthe next two yearsto develop an Australian- New Zealand Standard Risk Management(ANS/NZS on 4360: 1995). Before publicationof the standard,ProfessorCrosswrotethat: since its impact depend the extentto which Theimplications as yet uncertain are will on and government major decide takeupthestandard industry to ...6 Althoughthe standard mightreceive littleattention,she consideredthat,in view of the significant interestat the public comment stage of its development,this was unlikely. Herconfidencewas well placed. The standard had a significantimpactin Australiaand New has Zealandand has attractedworldwide attention.It was revised and republishedin April 1999,7 and it is this later publication which will be used here in describing the approach to risk management. Figure 1 below providesan outline of the main steps in the process.In essence, risk management is the systematicapplicationof managementpolicies, proceduresand practices to the tasks of establishingthe context, and to those of identifying, analyzing,evaluating and treatingrisks. Monitoring review,andcommunication consultation, alsokey elementsof the process. and and are Figure I. Risk management overview A more detailedexplanationof the risk managementprocess is shown in Figure 2 below. The standardprovidesquite detailed guidancefor each aspect of thatprocess. Page 8 Alan Hodges
  • 4. RiskManagement: InternationalJournal An Figure 2. Risk management process i T- Establish the context * The strategiccontext * The organizationalcontext * The risk managementcontext * Develop criteria * Decide the structure v Identify risks 4 * What can happen? 4 t * How can it happen? v Analyze risks Determine existing risks cj-~ Determine Determine likelihood consequences 0 ct a0 E: E l I .- 0 tt C Estimatelevel of risk 0 ;.. .1 r: u 0 v Evaluate risks * Compareagainstcriteria * Set risk priorities t Treat risks * Identify treatment options * Evaluatetreatment options * Select treatmentoptions * Preparetreatment plans * Implementplans I I Alan Hodges Page 9
  • 5. An Risk Management: InternationalJournal The first step is to examine the strategic,organizationaland risk managementcontext within which the analysis will take place. In this step it is appropriate examinethe criteriaagainst to which risks will be evaluated and to determinethe structure, set of elements, for subsequent or analysis.It is important examinationof the context is undertaken the outset,to providethe that at framework the following risk analysis.This requiresa thoroughexamination the operating for of and environment a full understanding organizational of policies andgoals, so as to decidewhether a risk is acceptableor not. The second step involves identificationof all the risks which need to be managed,togetherwith possible causes and effects. If risks arenot recognizedin this step, it is unlikelythatthey will be controlled.In an organizationalsetting, it is also necessary to considerrisks which are outside the entity's control. Analysisof risk,the thirdstep, has two key elements:likelihoodandconsequences. combining By analyses of these elements, an estimate of the level of risk can be derived in the context of existing controlmeasures. During the analysis stage, minor, acceptablerisks can be identified and put to one side. Depending on the degree of risk and the availabilityof accuratedata and resources available, analysis may be qualitative, semi-quantitativeor quantitative.When a is qualitativeapproach used, the level of risk can be estimatedas extreme,high, moderateor low. A possibleallocationof these estimatesfor differentcombinations likelihoodandconsequences of is shown in Table 1 below. Table I. Qualitative level of risk Consequences Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Almost H H E E E certain Likely M H H E E Moderate L M H E E Unlikely L L M H E Rare L L M H H Legend:E = extreme,H = high, M = moderate,L = low. Aftertheanalysisprocess,the riskscan be evaluated. This involves a comparisonbetweenthe level of riskidentified the previously-established criteria. and risk Fromthiscanbe deriveda list of risks in priorityorder.Some of these mightbe at such a level thatthe riskcanbe acceptedandtreatment maynotbe required. Nevertheless, theyshouldbe documented, monitored periodically and reviewed to ensurethatthey remainacceptable.The otherrisks will requirefurther consideration. Forthoseriskswhich areunacceptable,fouroptions (which arenot necessarilyall appropriate or mutuallyexclusive in all circumstances)are available: Page 10 Alan Hodges
  • 6. Risk Management: InternationalJournal An * Avoidingthe risk. Very careful considerationneeds to be given to such a course, as the level of otherrisks might potentiallybe increased. * Reducingthe likelihood.Modifying the hazardcan be undertaken a range of measures, by dependingon the circumstances.For instance, it might requirerevision of organizational arrangements, of of implementation preventativemeasures,application technicalcontrols, or initiationof researchand development. * Reducing the consequences. The impact can be reduced by such means as contingency planning,recovery plans, engineeringand structural and barriers, design features. * Transferringthe risk. By use of contracts, insurance arrangements and organizational structures(such as partnerships),the risk can be transferred shared. However, such or arrangements may not reduce the level of risk to society. Additionally,there is the added dangerthat the organizationwhich has the new responsibilitymay not manage that risk. Despite these actions, there may be residual risk which is retained.Planningwill thereforebe requiredto managethe consequencesof this. Following the identificationof options for risk treatment,therewill be a need for an assessment process. The process should take account of the extent of risk reductionand the likely benefits which can be achieved. Obviously, high reductionin risk for low cost should be implemented. As the costs rise and the benefits diminish, careful judgement will be required, and there may come a point where it is clearly uneconomic to increase expenditure to lower the risk further.Again, in such cases judgement is required so as to reduce the risk impact to as low a level as is reasonably practicable. Plans must then be prepared,for implementing the selected options, to enable management to control the risks. Such plans should identify responsibilities, the actions required, performancemeasures, and the expected outcomes of treatments,and should provide a basis for assessing effectiveness. While responsibility for risk treatmentis best placed with those able to control the risk, a management system is also requiredwhich ensures that the plan is effectively implemented.As shown in Figures 1 and 2 above, the need to monitor and review is part of a closed loop sequence. There is a constant need to be alert to changing circumstances,as risks will change over time, in respect of eitherthe likelihood of occurrences, or their consequences, or both. Identification of a regular review process would be a very sensible inclusion in the plan. A majordifferencebetween the 1995 and 1999 standards inclusionin the latterof the need for is communication consultation.Experiencehas shown thatthese actions,for both internaland and externalstakeholders, requiredfor every stage of the process.Communication to be two- are has way to enable effective consultationto occur. Eachstage also requiresdocumentation be completedso as to satisfyan independent to audit.The inclusionof assumptions,methods,datasourcesandresultswill producean audittrailwhich will demonstrate process. Such documentation the will also make subsequent monitoringand review muchsimpler. Whilethe standard not introduced has significantlynew conceptsto theanalysisandmanagement of risk, its developmentand subsequentendorsementhas definitely been of immense benefit. The thoroughprocess of consultation,implementationand eventualrevision has resulted in a risk-management approachwhich has gained wide acceptancein Australiaand New Zealand. Alan Hodges Page 11
  • 7. Risk Management: InternationalJournal An There is an agreedmethodology which is well understoodand acceptedand, as a result, use of the standard'sapproach now being increasinglydemandedin riskanalysis,by bothgovernment is and privateenterprise. A majorbenefit of the standardis the strongemphasis it gives to identifyingrisk as an integral partof the management teamto undertake process, as well as to the need for a multi-disciplinary risk analysis. On the other hand, undertaking thoroughrisk analysis should not be taken on a lightly. The step-by-stepprocess in the standardcan demand a majorcommitmentof staff to carryit out thoroughly, certainlyrequiresfull supportat managementlevel. and There has been interestby other countriesin the approach,but none has so far gone to the next step of developing an agreed standard.This is surprising, given the internationalinterest in this topic and the benefits which would flow from the formal endorsementof a standardby national or multi-nationalstandardsorganizations.Such a developmenttask need not appear daunting;in fact, it is likely to result in wide interest and involvement. It requires,however, a small group of 'champions'who are preparedto take chargeof the projectand drive it through to fruition. Catalysts of change in emergency management Guidelinesfor managingrisk in the AustralianPublic Service The mere publicationof a standardwhich provides a generic guide on risk managementis, in itself, insufficientto ensure that it is adoptedby an industrysector.Althoughthe standardcan contributeto change, other 'drivers' are required;several of those relating to the emergency managementsectorare describedin the following paragraphs. In 1995 the Management Advisory Committee and Management Improvement Advisory Committeeof theAustralian PublicServiceissuedan 'exposuredraft'on GuidelinesforManaging Risk in the AustralianPublic Service. The final document8was publishedthe following year. Althoughit was directedprimarilyat goverment agencies, the approach was widely applicable in the community.In essence, the Guidelinesprovidedan easily-readableexplanationof the use of the risk managementstandardin government,and also included a numberof case studies illustratingpersuasivesuccess stories. The Guidelinesnotethatthe alternative riskmanagement riskymanagement. to is They highlight thatmanagingriskrequiresrigorous,responsible,balancedandforwardthinking.They promote the standard's formalstep-by-stepprocess for significantdecisions, such as: * policy changes; * projectmanagement; * the management sensitive issues; of * involving significant sums of money; and expenditure * the introduction new proceduresand strategies. of even if only in an informalmanner, Moreover,the Guidelinesalso encourageuse of the approach, in all decision-making,as risk is inherentin all we do. Page 12 Alan Hodges
  • 8. Risk Management: InternationalJournal An The Guidelines in were significant raisingawareness the standard's of withingovernment approach andcertainly agencies, inpreparing ground change thefieldof emergency assisted the for in management. National emergency risk managementworkshop The publicationof the standardin 1995 excited interest among a numberof staff members of EMA and otheremergency managementpractitioners. a result of their influence, in March As 1996 EMA conducteda nationalworkshopat its AustralianEmergencyManagementInstituteto considerthe application the risk managementconceptto emergencymanagementin Australia. of There was an awareness,however, that this workshophad potentialto create division, as there was strongnationalacceptanceof the existing approachto emergencymanagementin Australia. This approach involved concepts of: * 'all hazards' single set of management (a of all capable encompassing hazards); arrangements * 'all agencies' (the establishmentof arrangements involving all agencies); * 'a comprehensive (planning approach' whichinvolvesall fourelementsof a 'PPRR'process, ie prevention, preparedness,response and recovery);and community' (recognizingthe communityas a primaryfocus of emergency * the 'prepared management). Although the PPRRareas are not mutuallyexclusive, there had been a tendency for each to be seen to some extent as separatefunctions, thereby leading to differing levels of interest and support,regardlessof communitybenefits. Over 30 participants from emergencyservice organizations,local government, State government agencies, the insuranceindustryand industrialorganizations attendedthe workshop.Following presentations,discussions breakout and agreed9 the risk sessionsoverthreedays,theparticipants that management standardwouldbe of valuetoAustralianemergency management arrangements because: * governmentsand corporationsare increasinglyusing risk management processes; * the risk management process provides a common language and process across all organizations; * it is a formalized,systematicprocess of analysis and decision-making; * emergencymanagementcan be promotedmore effectively throughrisk management;and * emergencymanagementshould dovetail into the broaderrisk management process. Workshop participants agreedthatspecific guidelineswere necessaryfor the implementation also of the standardwithin the emergency managementindustry.It was also proposedthat the term 'emergencyriskmanagement'be adoptedto reflect the multi-agencyaspect of the industry. Two key recommendations from the workshopwere that: * Australianemergencymanagementshould embody risk management principles;and * guidelines (based on the standard)should be developed appropriate the Australian to emergencymanagementindustry. Alan Hodges Page 13
  • 9. Risk Management: InternationalJournal An In September1996 these recommendations were put to Australia'speakemergencymanagement policy body, the NationalEmergencyManagementCommittee,l°which agreed: * 'to commendrisk managementprinciplesas a tool for use in the emergencymanagement community'; * 'thatemergencyrisk managementdocumentation based on the risk management standard shouldbe developedappropriate theAustralian to emergencymanagement needs'; industry's and * 'to incorporatethe risk managementapproachinto relevant educationand trainingand into principlesand practicepublications."' Subsequent action was by no means immediate. There was a lack of understanding the of implicationsin manyareasand a fear thatexisting concepts andprinciples,whichhave stood the emergencymanagement communityin good stead, would be abandoned. Whatfollowed was an extensive periodof communicationand consultation,an experience which was to be influential in includingthese approachesin the 1999 revision of the standard. Supporting publications In mid-1996 PatrickHelm, of the Department the PrimeMinisterandCabinetin New Zealand, of publisheda paper12 a Ministryof Civil Defencejoural. This was important raisingawareness in in of the applicationof the risk managementprocess in the disastercontext. Thegeneralriskmanagement approach not new to New Zealand, was whichsince 1987hadadopted a policy of sharing management risk betweencentralgovernment local authorities. policy and The required localauthorities identifyhazards theirareasof responsibility to introduce to in and strategies to reducethe consequences disasters. of Thisrequired comprehensive a to approach loss prevention and risk management. somewhatsimilarscheme has more recentlybeen adoptedin Australia, A wherebythe Federal government's financialcontribution Statesto assistrecoveryfromrecurrent to is disasters contingent appropriate on mitigationmeasures beingtakenat Stateandlocalgovernment levels. The concepthas not been universallywelcomedby local governments, theyalreadyhave as many competingpressures for expenditures. Nor have the New Zealandprinciples been adopted universallyby local authoritiesin that country.'3Neverthelessthere is a clearmessage in both countriesthatdisaster is mitigation an important in component a totalriskmanagement approach to protecting communities fromthe effects of disasters. Helm also notedthatrisk management'... offers a structured,systematicandconsistentapproach thatforces the analystinto understanding total riskpicture'.Importantly, saw thatit forms the he an overlay on the emergency/disaster process, and herehe was challengingthe statusquo. While AustraliaandNew Zealandsubscribeto the comprehensiveapproach emergencymanagement to via the PPRRprocess, it would be fair to say thatthe majoremphasisin both countrieshas been on the capabilityto respondto disasters.Risk management,however,requiresa more thorough analysis of solutions.For instance,the marginalbenefitfrom the applicationof resourcesto both preventionandresponseshouldbe equal.Helm emphasizedthateach step in disaster management requiredsupport'... commensurate with its importance potentialfor improving outcome'.'4 or the In concluding,he statedthat: Riskmanagement of strategies themselves cannot better guarantee performance because of boththe role thatchanceand uncertainlyplay, andthe vagariesassociated withhuman Page 14 Alan Hodges
  • 10. Risk Management: International An Journal intervention. themethodologies forassessing cancontribute understanding But used risk to where mostserious the components Theycanpoint themore lie. to control promising options, assistpolicydevelopment, inform allocation resources.15 and the of In mid-1996 an articleby Smithet a116foresaw the possibility of the conceptof riskmanagement providing botha foundation a culturalshift anda stimulusfor integrating for services.The authors saw the move towardsthe risk managementapproachas leading to a shift towardsprevention and increasedservicediversity,to communityempowerment responsibility, to increased and and inter-agencycooperation.They also considered that the major focus in Australiahas been on event management,and so significant capabilitieshave been developed, using both permanent staff and trainedvolunteers, to combat hazardous events. This has inevitably led to further investmentof resources responsecapabilities,rather in thanrecognizinga moreholisticapproach. issues questioningthe prioritiesgiven to the variousPPRRelements, This articleraisedimportant and recognized the need both for close involvement of the community in risk management processesanddecisions,andfor a muchgreaterunderstanding the vulnerability communities of of or elements of communities.Hence, in the emergency managementcontext,risk management can be very much concernedwith people, with the impact of a hazardon them and with their response to a situation. Papers by Salter, Koob and Tarrant17were also important in promoting emergency risk management. Implications of emergency risk management Notwithstanding influenceof the NationalEmergencyManagementCommittee its views the and on the usefulness of the risk managementapproach,there was a need to have wide industry involvement in buildinga consensus for adoptingthe risk managementapproach in taking and the next step of producing guidelines for emergency risk management.A national steering committeewas formedto develop guidelines which blendedtraditionalemergency management approacheswith emergencyrisk management. The EmergencyRiskManagementGuidelines which resultedfollow the varioussteps in Figure 2, but with some variations.Whereasthe standardis directedprimarilytowardsthe analysis of organizationalrisk, its application to emergency managementrequires a strongemphasis on community consultation and involvement. This is in distinct contrast to earlier emergency managementapproaches, whose prime focus was on hazardanalysis. Such analysisis now part of a much more comprehensiveapproach. Communityconsultation raises the complex issue of involving residentsin identification the of of types of risks affectingthemandthe probabilities those risksoccurring. outcomecould, for The instance,reveal unperceived flooding risks, with a consequentialdownwardeffect on real estate values, or highlighta small, but neverthelessreal, risk of catastrophic dam failure.Such matters have the potentialto attractmedia attentionand to escalatevery rapidlyto the politicallevel. The Guidelinesaretailoredto the emergencymanagementenvironmentin relationto: * natural,technological,civil/political (terrorism, sabotage)and biologicalhazards; * recognitionof various community groupings (geographically-based, shared-experience, and sector-based,functionally-based); Alan Hodges Page 15
  • 11. An Risk Management: International Journal * inclusion of concepts of resilience and susceptibility,to assist in determiningcommunity vulnerability. A key to the acceptanceof the emergencyrisk managementapproachhas been to incorporate PPRR as options in the treatment risks - importantly,this is the last step in the sequential of process (see Figure 1). Prevention, preparation, responseandrecoveryeach needto be examined, and the benefitsassessed as options,in the light of the judgementsmade in the riskmanagement analysisup to thatpoint.The analysismay well lead to the need for greaterresponsecapabilities, butsucha decisionwill be madeaftercomparing benefitsof, for instance,enhanced the preventative measures. The Guidelines have been incorporated into a comprehensiveApplications Guide18 have and been endorsed by Standards Australia as an appropriatederivation of AS/NZS 4360: 1999. Concurrently with this development,the Public Safety IndustryTrainingAdvisory Body19has risk incorporated management conceptsandprocessesin the identification commonandsector- of specific trainingcompetencystandards nationaladoption. for As an example, in the competencystandards'managementstream', which is common to all emergencyservices, fourtraining units have been developed, covering the five mainsteps in the riskmanagement process.Eachof the unitshasthenbeen brokendown intocontributing elements, with associated performance criteria.For instance, the unit 'Establishcontext and develop risk evaluationcriteria'has 'Clarifystakeholders' roles andrequirements' one of its five elements. as One of the performance criteria this elementis: 'Stakeholders informedof aims,objectives for are and the risk managementcontextand structure within which they must operate.' At the Australian Emergency Management Institute, three new courses ('Introduction to Emergency Risk Management', 'Understanding Emergency Risk Management' and 'ImplementingEmergencyRisk Management')are being conductedor are in development,as the foundationof the Institute'scurriculum.Publicationsto supportthe ApplicationsGuide are also being developed, in the form of 'ImplementationGuides' and an annotatedbibliography. The courses are criticalcomponents the implementation of strategyas, over time, therewill be a common nationalapproach implementingemergencyrisk managementwhile the philosophy to andthe languagearedisseminated Australia-wide.Moreover,they will be an importantmeansof providing who are skilledin implementingthe Guidelinesin conjunction well-trainedfacilitators with communitygroups. The next stepis to applytheapproach a practical in way. EMAstaffwill workwithStateemergency management staff to undertakecomprehensive risk assessments at community level. Initial in communityareasselectedforthesestudiesarethe outerMelbournesuburb Cardinia Victoria, of the North-WestTasmaniaregion,a ruraltown in South Australia and the Jarrahdale-Serpentine Shire, south of Perthin Western Australia.Furthermore, National EmergencyManagement the Committee recently approveda strategic plan which includes an intention to undertakecase studies in each of the eightAustralianStates and Territories. If the enthusiasm participants the new coursesis any guide,the development anemergency of on of risk management approach has been worthwhile. However, it is still at an early stage of implementation it will be some time beforeenough people have been throughcoursesfor the and concept way. A majorchallenge still aheadof us will be to to be applied in a business-as-usual ensurethat the approachis acceptedat the executive level. Page 16 Alan Hodges
  • 12. An Risk Management: International Journal Conclusion The publicationof the riskmanagementstandard 1995 has providedan extremelyuseful and in systematic basis for examiningrisk. In its applicationto emergency management, standard the has resulted in widespreadcritical re-examinationof the traditionalAustralianapproachto The protectionof life, property the environment. development,through and extensiveconsultation, of emergencyriskmanagement guidelines is now providinga completelynew basisforexamining risks to communitiesand for determiningtreatmentoptions as partof the process. The options stillrequireconsideration traditional of conceptsof prevention, responseandrecovery, preparation, and so the old and the new have been successfully blendedtogetherto createan approach which is now being introduced nationallythough publications,training and case studies. Notes 1 Director AlanHodgeswasuntilrecently of General Emergency Management whichis Australia, the Federal agencyresponsible reducing impactof natural man-made government for the and disasters theAustralian on community. 2 known theNatural Formerly as Disasters Organisation. 3 StandardsAustralia,StandardsNew Zealand (1999) Risk Management,AS/NZS4360: 1999. NSW: Strathfield, Association Australia, 3. Standards of p 4 Ibid,p 4. 5 EmergencyMangement Glossary.Canberra: Australia(1998) AustralianEmergencyManagement EMA,p 41. 6 Standard. Australian Cross,J. (1995)TheRiskManagement The Journalof Emergency Management. Vol. 10,No. 4, pp4-7. 7 Standards Standards Zealand, cit. Australia, New op 8 Advisory Management and Committee Management Improvement Australian Committee, Advisory PublicService(1995)ReportNo 22: Guidelines ManagingRiskin theAustralian for PublicService. Government Australian Canberra: Service. Publishing 9 EmergencyManagement RiskManagement Australia(1996) Emergency MountMacedon Workshop. Paper 5. Canberra: No. Australian Government Service. Publishing 10 TheNational Emergency ManagementCommittee comprises Director the of General Emergency Management as chair, thechairs executive Australia, and and officers eachStateandTerritory of management peakemergency committee other or nominatedofficers 11 Minutes theNational of Emergency Committee, Management Emergency Australia, Management September1996. 12 for and Disasters. Helm,P. (1996)Integrated Management Natural Technological Risk Tephra. Vol.15,No. 1,pp5-13. 13 Ibid,p 5. 14 Ibid,p 11. 15 Ibid,p 13. 16 Smith, Nicholson, andCollett, (1996)RiskManagement theFire Emergency P., J. L. in and Services. InNDR96. Proceedings the National of Disaster conference. Reduction of Institution Canberra: EngineersAustralia, 377- 87. pp Alan Hodges Page 17
  • 13. Risk Management: International An Journal 17 Salter,J. (1995a) Disasters as Manifestationsof Vulnerability. AustralianJournal of Emergency Management. Vol. 10, No. 1, pp 9- 10; Salter,J. (1995b) Towardsa BetterDisaster Management Methodology.AustralianJournal of EmergencyManagement.Vol. 10, No. 4, pp 8 - 16; Salter,J. (1997) Risk Management a DisasterManagementContext.Journalof Contingenciesand Crisis in Management.Vol.5, No. 1, pp 60 - 5; Salter,J. (1999a) PublicSafetyRisk Management: Assessing the LatestNationalGuidelines.AustralianJournal of EmergencyManagement.Vol. 13, No. 4, pp 50 - 3; Salter,J. (1999b) A Risk ManagementApproachto Disaster Management.In Ingleton,J. (ed.) Natural Disaster Management.Leicester: Tudor Rose, pp 111-13; Koob, B. (1996) The Contextof EmergencyManagement. AustralianJournal of EmergencyManagement.Vol. 11,No. M. 2, pp 1-4; Tarrant, (1997) Risk Communicationin the Context of EmergencyManagement: Planning'With'RatherThan 'For' Communities.AustralianJournal of EmergencyManagement. Vol. 12,No.4,pp20-8. 18 Emergency ManagementAustralia (2000) Emergency Risk ManagementApplications Guide: AustralianEmergencyManual.PartII, Vol. 1. Melbourne:EMA. 19 A company establishedunderFederalgovernmentarrangements the furtherance education for of andtraining thepublicsafetyindustry. boardcomprisesemployerandemployeerepresentatives in Its from the fire, police, emergencyservices, defence and emergencymanagementsectors. Page 18 Alan Hodges