IICA-OAS Food Security Conference Washington DC, October 1, 2009

1. Food Security under Stress Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute IICA-OAS Food Security Conference Washington DC, October 1, 2009

3. Rising number of hungry people in the developing world Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009 . (in million) >1 bil. WFS target

4. Hunger “serious” in parts of the region Source: von Grebmer et al., IFPRI 2008 . 2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI)

5. Sub-national poverty ca. 2005 ($2/day) Prevalence Number Source: Stan Wood et al. (IFPRI) 2009.

6. High inequality in LAC Source: POVCAL, based on household surveys .

7. Food riots a mass phenomenon when prices spike Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009. Price spike

8. Distributional impacts of the food crisis Source: M. Torero (IFPRI) 2009. Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Peru Poverty (%) Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Deepening 64.1 43.7 67.8 23.4 58.0 22.8 70.6 39.8 Exit 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Entry 2.2 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.0 2.3 1.8 Change 2.1 2.3 1.1 1.8 1.5 2.9 2.3 1.7

9. Calorie consumption – Honduras Before (blue) and after (red) of the increase in prices Households with 0 -2 years old kids National level

10. Increased speculation in food markets, and link to energy price Source: Chicago Board of Trade 2009. Grain and oilseed futures and options - Ave. daily volume And closure of commodity exchanges (India, China, etc.)

12. Food system now also affected by financial volatility and recession Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.

14. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed maize Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009. Global production: -16%

15. Climate change impact: Global food prices Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.