Climate Change and Food Security
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Climate Change and Food Security
- 1. Climate Change and Food Security Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute IPC and ICTSD Seminar “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Trade: Promoting Policy Coherence” Washington DC, October 29, 2009
- 4. 17 Gt of reductions below ‘BAU’ required by 2020 for a 450ppm pathway with (40-60% chance of 2 degrees) Global GHG emissions, Gt CO 2 e per year 52 61 70 50 55 60 65 70 75 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 40 45 44 35 -17 -35 Reference pathway ‘ BAU’ 450ppm pathway (with overshoot) Change relative to 1990 17 -7 Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis 50 55 60 65 70 75 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 40 45
- 9. CO 2 emissions by country and sector Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton 2006.
- 12. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated rice Global production = -27% NCAR A2a Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
- 13. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed maize Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009. NCAR A2a Global production = -16%
- 14. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated wheat NCAR A2a Global production = -42% Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
- 15. Climate change impact: Global food prices, 2050 Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 .
- 16. Climate change impact: Child malnutrition Part of the silent climate change health crisis Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 .
- 17. Climate change impact: Net cereal trade Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 . (Negative values indicate net imports)
- 20. Agriculture-related terms in the Bonn conference negotiating text* June 2009 Source: Global Donor Platform for Rural Development 2009. *Revised Negotiating text June 22, 2009.
- 22. Additional annual agricultural adaptation funding required: +US$ 7 billion Expenditure to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$) Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 . The mix of investments differs by region Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Developing countries Agric. research 314 172 1,316 Irrigation expansion 537 344 907 Irrigation efficiency 187 999 2,158 Rural roads 2,015 17 2,737 Total 3,053 1,531 7,118
- 25. Developing countries require different types of support for mitigation activities Source: McKinsey, 2009 Energy efficiency in buildings, transportation and industry Demos / investment in emerging technologies Agriculture and forestry Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t) Support to overcome barriers (best practice info, capacity building,loans) Support to compensate incremental costs, e.g. through offset market or grants Support to compensate incremental costs (grants) and international cooperation Power supply 8 10 12 14 2 4 6 * Cost of abatement € / ton Forestry Agriculture Industry Power Transport Buildings 0 20 40 60 -20 -80 -60 -40 Technology follows investment Abatement potential Gt CO 2 e
- 30. IFPRI on the web http://www.ifpri.org/
Notas do Editor
- After water demand for different sectors
- Our recommendation then is that agriculture be included in any mitigation funding modalities, with funds available for development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systems and that allow innovative payment mechanisms to address the characteristics of agriculture, especially in developing countries, where small producer predominate and legal institutions are not always fully effective. The principle of common by differentiated responsibilities implies that any funding should support mitigation of agricultural emissions by the poorest but as countries progress and their incomes rise, the burden of mitigation should be adjusted too. 5) Linking communities to global markets - Establish regional centers for carbon trading, specialized business services and local intermediaries. Simplify standards for small-scale projects. Deal with permanence issue in carbon sequestration.