Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to Avoid a Deep and Complex Crisis
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Charles Valentine Riley Memorial Lecture Washington D.C., February 28, 2008
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Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to Avoid a Deep and Complex Crisis
- 1. Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to Avoid a Deep and Complex Crisis Joachim von Braun Director General International Food Policy Research Institute Charles Valentine Riley Memorial Lecture Washington D.C., February 28, 2008
- 2. Overview 1. The world food equation: Out of balance 2. Unsustainable agriculture: Risks and insecurity 3. Actions needed now: Technology and policy change Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 3. The food and agriculture equation: Changes Production Demand Land Income growth Water Poverty and inequality Inputs & Transport costs Consumer behavior Workforce Bioenergy Climate change Biomass (CO2) Agrarian structure Technology Trade and Markets Information & Standards Supermarkets Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 4. The new situation: Surge in prices Commodity prices (US$/ton) 400 Corn 100 Wheat 80 300 Rice Oil (right scale) 60 200 40 100 20 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Source: Data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.
- 5. Cereals price changes: IFPRI projections US$/ton 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Rice Wheat Maize Soybean Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Source: M. Rosegrant (prelim. results with IMPACT-WATER)
- 6. Income growth: Rising consumption Growth (2004-06 per annum) • 9% in Asia, 6% in Africa • 2% in industrialized countries Since 2000, global cereal use for: • Food 4%, feed 7% • Industrial purposes 25% India, 2000 – 2025 Scenario: • Meat 176%, milk and vegetables 70% • Grain 27% Sources: FAO 2003 and 2007b; Kumar, et al. 2007. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 7. Shift towards high-value commodities 2005/1990 ratios of per capita consumption India China Brazil Nigeria Cereals 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.0 Meat 1.2 2.4 1.7 1.0 Milk 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.3 Fish 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.8 Fruits 1.3 3.5 0.8 1.1 Vegetables 1.3 2.9 1.3 1.3 Future grain consumption is driven by income growth, population growth, and feed for meat and dairy production Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Source: Data from FAO 2007.
- 8. Drivers of change: Globalization of the agri-food business chain Agricultural Food Consumers input processors Food industry Farms and traders retailers top 10: $40 bln Agricultural top 10: $409 bln top 10: $1,091 value added: bln • Syngenta $1,592 bln • Nestle • Monsanto • Cargill • Wal-Mart • Bayer C No. of farms: • ADM • Carrefour $4.000 bln • BASF AG ca. 450 mln • Metro G • Unilever • Dow Agro • Kraft Foods • Tesco Size distr. • Seven & I >100 ha: 0.5% < 2 ha: 85% Source: von Braun 2008. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 9. World cereal production: Not growing enough Million tons Total Million tons 1,200 2,000 900 1,600 600 1,200 300 0 800 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* Wheat Coarse grains Rice Total (right) Source: Data from FAO 2003, 2005-07. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 * Forecast.
- 10. Agricultural production: Decreasing share of developed countries Agricultural production, % of world total Africa Brazil China W Europe India United States 0 5 10 15 20 1984-6 2004-6 Source: FAO 2008.
- 11. Cereals: The world eats more than it produces Million tons 700 600 500 400 Total cereal stocks 300 200 100 China 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* Source: Data from FAO 2003, 2005-07. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 * Forecast.
- 12. IFPRI biofuel scenarios by 2020 Price changes Scenario Biofuel expansion (% by 2020) corn: +26 Actual plans & assumed 1 sugar: +12 expansions oilseeds: +18 corn: +72 Doubling of Scenario 1 2 sugar: +27 expansion oilseeds: +44 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Source: IFPRI IMPACT–model projections.
- 13. World food equation: Reasons for imbalance 1. Income growth 2. Biofuels 3. Lack of technology to respond 4. Low stocks 5. Production shocks 6. High input and transport costs due to energy price 7. Population growth Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 14. Overview 1. The world food equation: Out of balance 2. Unsustainable agriculture: Risks and insecurity 3. Actions needed now: Technology and policy change Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 15. Declining productivity growth 6 maize Average annual growth rate (%) 5 rice wheat 4 3 2 1 0 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Source: World Development Report 2008.
- 16. Sources of cereal production growth Annual cereal production growth rates, 2000-2050 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 LAC ESAP SSA CWANA NAE Area expansion Yield improvement Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections 2007.
- 17. Competition for land Field and pastures: ~40% Forests: ca. 10 million km2 (~ 20%) Cities, roads: 2% Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Foley et al., SCIENCE 309, 2005
- 18. Climate change and sustainability • Agriculture is part of the problem: 13.5 % the CO2 of equivalents (Transport: 13.1%) • Agriculture is part of the solution: Biomass; CO2 sequestration • CO2 trade: A new agricultural commodity market of the future? Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 19. Agriculture: Other sustainability threats Water resources Irrigation = 80% of water use in developing countries Soils Overgrazing, deforestation, inappropriate agricultural practices Biodiversity Traditional crops replaced by genetically uniform modern varieties Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 20. 970 million people live on less than $1 a day Subjacent poor ($.75 cents – $1) 485 million people Medial poor ($.50 cents – $.75 cents) 323 million people Ultra poor (less than $.50 cents) 162 million people Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Source: Ahmed, et al. 2007.
- 21. GHI: Hunger remains high Contribution of components to the Global Hunger Index proportion of calorie deficient people 30 prevalence of underweight in children under-five mortality rate 20 10 0 1990 2007 1990 2007 1990 2007 1990 2007 1990 2007 Sub-Saharan South Asia East Asia & Middle East & L. America & Africa Pacific N. Africa Caribb. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 Source: Wiesmann, et al. 2007.
- 22. Bangladesh: Household price effects Five-person household living on one dollar-a-day per person spends its $5 $3.00 on food $0.50 on household energy $1.50 on nonfoods A 50% increase in food and energy prices cuts $1.75 from their expenditures Food expenditures will be cut most, and will be accompanied by: • Reduced diet quality • Increased micronutrient malnutrition • Delays in wage rate adjustments Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 23. Security synergies and conflicts Food insecurity Political security risks Rising food prices: • The poorest suffer silently, the middle class protests and lobbies • Mass protests against rising prices Decline in building international agriculture capacity contributes to insecurity Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 24. Overview 1. The world food equation: Out of balance 2. Unsustainable agriculture: Risks and insecurity 3. Actions needed now: Technology and policy change Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 25. Agriculture to address poverty in the Critical Square Governance Economic & Conflicts Growth Innovation Productivity & Capacity (in agriculture)
- 26. Why invest in agriculture? Agricultural growth is more pro-poor Projected Poverty Rate in Ethiopia (Both with 5% of GDP annual growth) 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 Ag-led grow th Nag-led grow th Base run 26 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: IFPRI, 2007
- 27. Global public agricultural R&D 1981 2000 $15.2 billion* $23.0 billion* 100% Middle East-North Africa Latin America-Caribbean 80% Other Asia-Pacific India 60% China 40% Sub-Saharan Africa Developed 20% 0% Source: Pardey, 2006 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008 * in 2000 international prices
- 28. Policy responses NOT to choose • Export stops (“starving your neighbor”) • Food subsidies for vocal middle class • Maintaining outdated production controls • Continued public underinvestment in agriculture productivity increases • Exclusion of agriculture from climate change mitigation strategies Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 29. Five milestones for the roadmap 1. Global political attention at the highest levels 2. Specific policy action to protect the poorest from excessively high food prices 3. Major investments in services, rural infrastructure and input supply and finance for small farmers 4. A global R&D initiative for accelerated agricultural productivity 5. Enhanced collaboration of old and new key global agricultural players Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008
- 30. A global initiative Accelerated investment in agricultural productivity now: • makes economic sense • is pro-poor and good ethics • enhances sustainability • serves security Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2008