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UNDERSTANDING AMERICA’S SHIFT TO THE EAST USING THE FOREIGN POLICY
DECISION MODEL
Joshua Peterson
Student# 4319065
IRLS 502 – International Political Systems
Dr. Andrew Bosworth
American Military University - October 15, 2012

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UNDERSTANDING AMERICA’S SHIFT TO THE EAST USING THE FOREIGN POLICY
DECISION MODEL
The Foreign Policy Decision Making Model is a structural framework that analysts and
policymakers often use to guide them in formalizing and understanding the decision-making
process. This model assists policymakers in synthesizing a multitude of factors that may
influence foreign policy. The book, World Politics: Trends and Transformations, describes the
foreign policy decision making framework as three components.
The first component includes that the policymaker ponders several questions, which may
include: What are the current global conditions and the problem? What is happening in world
politics and does it provide the setting for international decision making? 1 Once the event(s)
have been determined, policy responses will be formulated based on state objectives and
potential outcomes to each response.
The second component consists of leaders that will consider internal characteristics of the
state. The internal characteristics of the state are "defined by their own attributes, which also act
to determine the actor’s foreign policy choices." 2 The leader must ask the following questions:
What is the populace's view of the adversary? What actions have been taken by the adversary to
support or weaken the state's position? What financial resources are available to implement a
possible strategy or strategies? Are there any roadblocks from a legal or organizational
perspective that would prevent the actor to engage in a foreign policy decision? The policy
maker will determine goal selections based on the events.
The third component of the decision making model suggests that the leader holds a set of
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1. Kegley, Charles W. and Shannon L. Blanton. World Politics: Trends and Transformations,
2011-2012 Update Edition, 13th Edition. Cengage Learning. Kindle Edition, 2011.
2. Ibid, 4907-4908.

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strong personal characteristics. The strong personal characteristics of the leader include moral
values, a solid personal approach to relationship building, and the ability to deal with conflict.
The leader needs these strong characteristics in order to determine the alternatives to the event.
This research paper will analyze the Obama Administration’s stated "pivot" towards East
Asia as it continues to wind down operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The United States (U.S.)
officials have commented that a shift in strategy is due to the interest of re-confirming U.S.
economic and security interests to U.S. partners in the region. According to Andrew Nathan and
Andrew Scobell in a recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine, the Chinese rebuttal to that
statement is that the "United States cannot be satisfied with the existence of a powerful China"
and that "as China rises, the United States will resist.” 3
The current global considerations that the United States policymakers must consider are
the rising economic and military power of China. The U.S. must consider a diminishing
dominance in the North and South Pacific as China assumes a more muscular posture against the
U.S. allies in the region; as well as attempting to impose self-serving economic and foreign
policy interests in the region. Internally, leaders must consider the economic impact of a
competing economic powerhouse and how this would affect the quality of life of the
citizenry. China has long been accused of unfair trade practices that include currency
manipulation, product dumping, and unfair state subsidies to strategically important
industries. In addition, corporate espionage has become a significant threat to the U.S. global
competitive advantage. Some critics have stated that these factors have translated to a weakened
U.S. manufacturing base and a loss of high paying American manufacturing jobs.
___________________
3. Nathan, Andrew J. and Andrew Scobell. “How China Sees America,” Foreign Affairs 91 September/October
(2012): 32-47.

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The Obama Administration is seen as having two grand strategies. The first strategy is one
of "multilateral retrenchment designed to curtail the United States' overseas commitments." 4 The
second strategy is focused on asserting "influence and ideals across the globe when challenged
by other countries, reassuring allies and signaling resolve to rivals." 5 When approaching these
two ideals, which appear on the surface to be diametrically opposed, the analyst must take in to
consideration these two strategies of "Obama Doctrine" when explaining the U.S. focus on the
shift to East Asia. The Obama Administration must monitor the balance of power effect, not
only in the region, but also on a global scale while trying to secure a policy strategy that will win
a two level game.
At a January 2011 meeting between the U.S. President Barack Obama and the Chinese
President Hu Jintao, both leaders exchanged their obligatory niceties. The "United States
reiterated that it welcomes a strong, prosperous, and successful China that plays a greater role in
world affairs. China welcomed the United States as an Asia-Pacific nation that contributes to
peace, stability and prosperity in the region." 6 Despite these pleasant verbal exchanges, the
United States policymakers approach to China is strategically complex. Some hardliners within
the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and analysts, see the rise of China as re-emergence to
their rightful position in the world. The liberal international relations theorists argue that the
current international order is defined by economic and political openness, and that it can
accommodate China's rise peacefully. Realist theorists contend that due to China's growing
strength, they will
__________________________
4. Drezner, Daniel W. “Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 90 July/August (2011): 57-68.
5. Ibid.
6. Kissinger, Henry A. “The Future of U.S. - Chinese Relations,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April (2012): 44-55.

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pursue its interests more assertively, which could lead to a hegemonic war between the two great
powers. These two theories, and the possible outcomes, must be considered when using the
Foreign Policy Decision Making Model.
Current Global Conditions – Economic Considerations
The first global reality that U.S. policymakers must face is the rapidly growing Chinese
economy. The U.S. leaders must consider the global consequences of a rising China and how it
will affect the U.S. and the current economic world order. One of Deng Xiaoping's teachings
was that of "tao guano yang hui, or keeping a low profile in international affairs" 7 and is seen as
evidence of China's peaceful rise. However, opponents see it as "hiding one's capabilities and
biding one's time" until "China has enough material power and confidence to promote its hidden
agenda." 8
China continues to view itself as a growing and developing nation. Statistical data
collected from 1981 to 2005, indicated that the proportion of China's population living on less
than $1/day is estimated to have fallen from 85% to 15%. These numbers show that
approximately 600 million people were taken out of poverty.” 9 According to Chinese officials,
there are still over 400 million people that live on less than $2 per day. In 2011, the country's
income per capita was $8,500, six times lower than the United States. However, the income per
capita growth of China has increased a cumulative 136% over 10 years and over 2,600% since
the Deng Xioaping's "economic revolution".
__________________
7. Jisi, Wang. “China's Search for a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 90 March/April (2011): 68-79.
8. Ibid.
9. Sicular, T. X., B. Yue, B. Gustafsson, and S. Li. “The Urban-Rural Income Gap and Inequality in China.”
Review of Income and Wealth 53, 1 (2007): 93-126.

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On a larger scale, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was $11.4 trillion in 2011,
which makes it the second largest economy in the world behind the United States. The GDP
growth rates have averaged over 8.0% per annum for the last 10 years. In speculation, if China
were to maintain its current growth rates, it is projected to be the largest economy in the world
within 10-15 years.
This significant growth may embolden China. Some analysts believe that this type of
economic heft may leave China attempting to play by their own rules as "the current world order
was built largely without Chinese participation." 10 This turn of events may well establish the
global economic status quo. Kissinger has stated, "where the order does not suit Chinese
preferences, Beijing has set up alternative arrangements." 11 It is important for leaders to realize
that China has consistently sought to alter or disrupt the current economic world order by
proposing the yuan, as a means to conduct and settle international transactions. For example,
during a G-20 summit in November 2008, Chinese president Hu Jiantao "called for a new
international financial order that is fair, just, inclusive and orderly." 12 His comments were in
response to America's role in the global economic collapse of 2008.
It is important for the United States to consider China's economic position and influence
within the regional intergovernmental organizations (IGO). The Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) one of the most visible and influential regional IGOs, has been a forum where
the United States could represent their interests.
_________________________
10. Kissinger, Henry A. “The Future of U.S. - Chinese Relations,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April (2012): 44-55.
11. Ibid.
12. Mallaby, Sebastian. “The Future of the Yuan,” Foreign Affairs 91 (2012): 135-138.

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"Strategic elites in Asia continue to view the United States and an essential strategic balancer,
vital to stability." 13 However, as China wealth and influence becomes stronger within these
organizations, they will use their power to construct trade and security alliances that would be in
their self-interests. These interests may oppose and/or displace U.S. interests.
Current Global Conditions - Military Considerations
Policymakers in Washington must implement the rising status of the People's Liberation
Army (PLA) into the decision matrix framework. "Although U.S. forces would ultimately
prevail in a military crisis or conflict, Beijing might be able to impose serious risks and costs on
the U.S. military if the United States concludes that it was necessary to commit air and naval
forces to battle with China in defense of Taiwan." 14 According to Brown, et al., the Council on
Foreign Relations Independent Task Force Report has pointed out that, “the PRC is currently
engaged in a comprehensive military modernization."15 This power shift is viewed as a threat to
the current Obama Administration for the following reasons: 1) there is a threat to the security
agreement with countries within the region, specifically close U.S. allies, such as, Japan, Taiwan
and South Korea and; 2) there is a threat to the effectiveness of the U.S. influence in the
region. However, as China's strength and influence has grown, "the United States has bolstered
its own capabilities in the region, enhanced its strategic cooperation with traditional allies, and
built new partnerships with other countries that share its concerns, such as India and
Singapore.” 16
_____________________________________________________
13. Feigenbaum, Evan A. and Robert A. Manning. The United States in the New Asia. New York: Council on
Foreign Relations Special Report No. 50, 2009.
14. Brown, Harold, Joseph W. Prucher and Adam Segal. Chinese Military Power. New York: Council on Foreign
Relations, 2003.
15. Ibid, 7.
16. Friedberg, Aaron L. “Bucking Beijing,” Foreign Affairs 91 September/October (2012): 48-58.

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The PLA's modernization plan is two-pronged. It has indicated that China is "developing
limited power projection capabilities to deal with a range of possible conflict scenarios along its
periphery" and secondly, to "defend Chinese sovereignty and territorial interests and to pose a
credible threat to Taiwan in order to influence Taiwan's choices about its political future." 17
The White House and the Pentagon are particularly focused on what is described as PLA's "anti-
access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities." 18 These weapons systems pose a serious threat to the
U.S. as "China can target virtually every air base and port in the western Pacific, as well as
threaten to sink enemy surface vessels (including U.S. aircraft carriers) operating hundreds of
miles off its coasts. "19
Chinese spending on military equipment and modernization has risen significantly over
the past decade. The PLA's military systems acquisition program with Russia has focused on
upgrading their air-to-air and air-to-ground systems through the acquisition of advanced jet
fighter aircraft and improving their maritime capabilities by acquiring (albeit outdated) aircraft
carrier technology. Cyber and communications technologies may be the most effective and may
act as the greatest deterrence against "hostile actions" within the region by the U.S. "Chinese
intrusions into U.S. power grids or other critical infrastructure, especially when evidence is left
behind, act as a warning that the U.S. homeland may not be immune to attack in the case of a
conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea."20
________________________________
17. Brown, 8.
18. Friedberg, 53.
19. Ibid.
20. Segal, Adam. “Chinese Computer Games,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April (2012): 14-20.

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Internal Characteristics of the State - Internal Perception
The second component of the decision framework focuses on internal characteristics and
the internal view of global events or perceptions of global competitors or adversaries. These
global competitors and adversaries include policymakers and citizens in the U.S. who view that
the economic rise of China is at the expense of U.S. businesses and jobs. Corporate espionage,
unfair trade practices, and government subsidies top the long list of grievances by American
workers and business owners.
The slow loss of America's manufacturing base has come to the forefront over the last
several decades. The U.S. manufacturing firms have slowly atrophied over the decades due to
trade agreements, such as, North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). However,
policymakers and their constituents have been quick to place the blame on China due to the
rapidity of the transition and restructuring It is believed that "importing inexpensive goods
manufactured abroad by low-wage laborers, and exporting U.S. capital to finance such
manufacturing in China and elsewhere, tends to lower the wages of U.S. manufacturing workers,
to put competing U.S. plants out of business, and to eliminate U.S. manufacturing jobs. Since
2001, more than 2 million U.S. jobs may have been lost due to trade with China." 21
China has openly admitted to "industrial espionage directed at foreign high-tech
companies" because the Chinese government "desperately wants its economy to move up the
value chain." 22 China has acknowledged that their industrial espionage program is widespread
and extensive.
____________________________
21. Benjamin Page, Xie Tao, and Andrew J. Nathan, Living with the Dragon: How the American Public
Views the Rise of China (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010), 17.
22. Segal, 16.

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The Chinese have been able to establish access to proprietary information by cyber-attacks or by
"simply walking in through the front door by buying into foreign companies or selling them
products that could give China access to technology and information." 23
The economic accomplishments of China have been impressive over the past forty
years. Up to this point, the economic relationship has been mutually beneficial. China has
become an export machine, exporting $411 billion of manufactured goods to the U.S. from a
base of $337 million in 1973. This export machine has brought hundreds of millions of Chinese
out of poverty and it has provided Americans with cheap goods. These "cheap Chinese
consumer products saved American consumers $600 billion from 1995 to 2005." 24
However, the U.S. has launched several complaints to the World Trade Organization and has
accused China of dumping cheap exports into the U.S. and the global economy.
At the center of this accusation is the claim that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is
subsidizing the businesses that manufacture the products. The reasoning behind the actions
could be two-fold: 1) China wants to ensure they maintain control of particular manufacturing
bases by offering cheaper products, that other competitors cannot match, and; 2) China needs to
maintain its growth by continuing to address its remaining poor, and preparing a safety net to
take care of an aging population.
Internal Characteristics of a Leader
Prior to Barack Obama’s election to office, the Administration campaigned for a foreign
policy approach that focused on retrenchment and repositioning. President Obama wanted to
look less like a hegemonic, imperial power and more like an equal contributor in an increasingly
___________________________
23. Friedberg, 57.
24. Page, 16.

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multipolar world. President Obama and his advisors knew that the global world order was
changing. Some individuals considered his blanket apology to the world for being an arrogant
superpower as repugnant. However, President Obama believed that this was necessary to
encourage an open, candid dialogue between the growing countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and
China (BRIC), specifically China. However, given the Obama doctrine of retrenchment, it is
important to have an implementation of policy and actions that keep China's ambitions under
control. It is important to consider those policies and actions that are related to disputed
territorial claims that would threaten U.S. security agreements with allies in the region.
Conclusion
The factors identified in this research paper which were part of the Foreign Policy
Decision Making model have provided justification for the Obama Administration's shift to the
east. Policymakers may utilize this decision making model to come to final choice to guide the
implementation of a directed foreign policy. The Foreign Policy Decision Making Model
recognizes and defines the problem. The problem identified is a rising China and its effects on
the U.S. economic and political influence. In addition, the model determines goal selection. The
Obama Administration's goal was to support a strengthening China, but to also limit its
ambitions, by allowing some growth, but also keeping China in a box. Lastly, the policymakers
identified alternatives. The administration's alternatives were basic, and supported China’s
growth, realizing the impending multipolar world order or to proceed in a more combative
approach. A realist approach would disallow the administration from achieving a win in a two-
level game strategy. The last part of the model focused on choice. Policymakers make decisions
based off of an extensive cost-benefit analysis. The Obama Administration, nor any future
administration cannot afford a combative, realist approach to China. Economic interdependence

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would ensure that hostile actions on either side would ensure mutually assured economic
destruction. This fact is why the U.S. strategic shift to the East was a correct choice.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Brown, Harold, Joseph W. Prucher and Adam Segal. Chinese Military Power. New York:
Council on Foreign Relations, 2003.
Drezner, Daniel W. “Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 90 July/August
(2011): 57-68.
Feigenbaum, Evan A. and Robert A. Manning. The United States in the New Asia. New York:
Council on Foreign Relations Special Report No. 50, 2009.
Friedberg, Aaron L. “Bucking Beijing,” Foreign Affairs 91 September/October (2012): 48-58.
Jisi, Wang. “China's Search for a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 90 March/April (2011):
68-79.
Kegley, Charles W. and Shannon L. Blanton. World Politics: Trends and Transformations,
2011-2012 Update Edition, 13th Edition. Cengage Learning. Kindle Edition, 2011.
Kissinger, Henry A. “The Future of U.S. - Chinese Relations,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April
(2012): 44-55.
Mallaby, Sebastian. “The Future of the Yuan,” Foreign Affairs 91 (2012): 135-138.
Nathan, Andrew J. and Andrew Scobell. “How China Sees America,” Foreign Affairs 91
September/October (2012): 32-47.
Page, Benjamin, Xie Tao, and Andrew J. Nathan. Living with the Dragon. How the
American Public Views the Rise of China. New York. Columbia University Press, 2010.
Segal, Adam. “Chinese Computer Games,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April (2012): 14-20.
Sicular, T. X., B. Yue, B. Gustafsson, and S. Li. “The Urban-Rural Income Gap and Inequality
in China.” Review of Income and Wealth 53, 1 (2007): 93-126.