Easily accessible via PHOTON Consulting’s extensive online research and data platform, Solar Updates is the source for accurate, up-to-date information and analysis on solar PV prices, project announcements, demand summaries and supply information by company. Information is updated on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis, enabling users to keep their finger on the pulse of the sector.
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1. Solar Power PRELIMINARY Solar Updates sample information Example deck PHOTON Consulting, LLC THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL – DO NOT FORWARD OR SHARE
2. This sample information file is designed to demonstrate the sample data in the Solar Updates product. Data in Solar Updates may be different from this sample information file. Some data and Y-axes in this file were intentionally removed. This is a subset of the Solar Updates product for marketing purposes only. This document is confidential. Please do not forward or share it in any form. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 2
5. Demand information includes quarterly installation volume and system/module price forecasts for key and emerging solar markets.
6. Company/supply information includes monthly company by company production at each step in the supply chain. This suite of timely, relevant data and analysis provides solar decision makers with key insight into leading indicators for the sector. Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Solar Updates: Critical PV information at your fingertips CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 3
7. Solar Updates Price PV system installation announcements Demand/market updates Company/supply updates Subscribe to Solar Updates CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 4
8.
9. Price points are collected from Asian, European and US producers based on transactions into Asian, European and US markets.
10. Period average prices are reported as the simple average of all collected price points over that time period, though an effort is made to match the geographic share of data points to global market share
12. Price points are collected/captured in whatever currency they are offered by survey respondents. Conversions to USD are based on real-time exchange rate on the day the transaction is reported.
14. The significant majority of reported price points come from primary research/interviews with market participants.
15. These price points are routinely verified against/augmented by pricing information reported in trade/business/popular press, company presentations and earnings transcripts, and other public data sources.
16. Prices are taken from both actual transaction price points as well as from current offers.
21. The module price received by the producer whether a module is sold to a distributor or directly to a large installer (i.e. the price Trina receives from IBC).
23. The module price received by the distributor when a module is sold to an installer (i.e. the price IBC receives when selling a Trina module to a small installer in Germany).2 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Consistent monthly methodology for collecting / reporting on price points across the PV value chain CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 5
24. c-Si value chain pricing ($/W) PRELIMINARY Module wholesale price index rebased as of 05/29/2009 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of price at each step of the supply chain Illustrative data Axes, dates and data removed Data updated 01/__/2010 Next update by 01/__/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Note: $/W pricing for wafer and Si based on standard conversion factors. Module WS price down and module FG gate price down, cell price flat and wafer price up Silicon contract price flat and spot price down CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 6
25. c-Si value chain pricing ($/W) PRELIMINARY Illustrative data Axes, dates and data removed Data updated 01/__/2010 Next update by 01/__/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Note: $/W pricing for wafer and Si based on standard conversion factors. Data and graphics available for export CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 7
26. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 8 Weekly price movements ($/W) PRELIMINARY 2 Illustrative data Dates removed Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. c-Si module German WS price up and c-Si module FG gate price up, cell price down and wafer price up
27. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 9 c-Si value chain price movement (Month-on-month changes) PRELIMINARY 1 Illustrative data Dates removed Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. c-Si module up 6% MoM, cell prices up 2%, wafer prices up 7%MoM, and polysilicon prices flat MoM
28. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 10 WS module price movement (Month-on-month changes) PRELIMINARY 1 Illustrative data Dates removed Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. WS module MoM price movements ranged from -13% to +14%
29. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 11 Price spreads along c-Si value chain ($/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Illustrative data Axes, dates and data removed Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of price spreads at each step of the c-Si value chain Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Each weekly price spread number is in an indication of the difference between mean observed price spreads at each step of the supply chain. For instance, “Spot cell price – spot wafer price” is equal to the weekly observed difference between mean cell price and mean wafer price in each week’s data set.” Wafer minus Si spread up 2% WoW;cell minus wafer spread down 7%WoW; FG module minus cell spread up 59%WoW; WS module minus FG module spread down 31%WoW
30. System price history – California large systems ($/W, CSI reported data, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of system price for California large systems Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Note: California system price data is updated roughly every two weeks in conjunction with release of updated CSI program data. 20% increase in month to date average of $8.10/W vs. monthly average price in November of $6.77/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 12 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
31. System price history – California small systems ($/W, CSI reported data, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of system price for California small systems Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Note: California system price data is updated roughly every two weeks in conjunction with release of updated CSI program data. 2% increase WoW in reported California small system prices 1% decrease in month to date average of $7.46/W up 1% vs. monthly average price in December of $7.53/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 13 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
32. c-Si module spot price history - US wholesale ($/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of c-Si module spot price for US wholesale market Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Note: California system price data is updated roughly every two weeks in conjunction with release of updated CSI program data. Reported c-Si module US WS spot prices flat WoW 1% decrease in month to date average of $2.95/W vs. monthly average price in December of $2.99/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 14 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
33. c-Si module spot price history - German wholesale (€/W, spot market,through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in €/W Weekly reporting of c-Si module spot price for German wholesale market Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 9% increase WoW in reported c-Si module Germany WS spot prices 6% decrease in month to date average of €1.75/W vs. monthly average price in December of €1.86/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 15 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
34. c-Si module spot price history - German wholesale ($/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of c-Si module spot price for German wholesale market Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Each weekly price point assumes the FX rate that was current as of that week. For current week data, FX rate of 1 EUR=1.44 USD simple average of daily FX rate between X/X/2010 – X/X/2010 was used. 9% increase WoW in reported WS spot c-Si module prices in Germany in USD terms 8% decrease in month to date average of $2.52/W vs. monthly average price in December of $2.74/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 16 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
35. German wholesale c-Si module price by region of origin (€/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Weekly price in €/W Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Chinese pricing flat WoW, Japanese pricing up 24% WoW and Western pricing up 9% WoW CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 17 Illustrative data Axes, dates and data removed
36. German wholesale module price by technology (€/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Weekly price in €/W Illustrative data Axes, dates and data removed Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. a-Si (single junction) prices up 8% WoW, and c-Si prices up 9% WoW CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 18
37. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 19 Chinese Tier 1 module - Germany wholesale (€/W, spot, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Weekly price in €/W Weekly reporting of Chinese Tier 1 modules in German wholesale market Illustrative data Axes, dates and data removed Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Notes: “Chinese Tier 1” refers to the grouping of Chinese module manufacturers that includes Canadian Solar, Solarfun, Suntech, Trina and Yingli. 6% WoW decrease in reported Chinese Tier 1 module WS prices in Germany 1% increase in April average of € 1.57/W vs. monthly average price in March of € 1.56/W
38. Thin film module spot price history - German wholesale (€/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in €/W Weekly reporting of thin film spot price in German wholesale market Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 5% increase WoW in reported TF module WS spot prices in Germany down 1% decrease in month to date average of €1.53/W vs. monthly average price in December of € 1.55/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 20 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
39. TF module spot price history - German wholesale ($/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of thin film spot price in German wholesale market Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Each weekly price point assumes the FX rate that was current as of that week. For current week data, FX rate of 1 EUR=1.46 USD simple average of daily FX rate between X/X/2010 – X/X/2010 was used. 5% increase WoW in reported TF module WS spot prices in Germany 3% decrease in month to date average of $2.21/W vs. monthly average price in December of $2.28/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 21 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
40. First Solar module - Germany wholesale (€/W, spot, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in €/W Weekly reporting of First Solar module price in the German wholesale market Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Month to date average of € 1.65/W flat vs. monthly average price in December of € 1.65/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 22 Illustrative data Axes, dates and data removed
41. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 23 Inverter price history - German wholesale (€/W, spot market,through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in €/W Weekly reporting of inverter prices in the German wholesale market Illustrative data Axes and dates removed Data updated X/X2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Reported inverter WS spot prices in Germany flat WoW 5% increase in month to date average of €0.41/W vs. monthly average price in March of €0.39/W
42. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 24 German wholesale inverter prices by size (€/W, spot market,through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY H H H H 1 Price in €/W Illustrative data Axes, dates and data removed Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. <5 kW inverter prices flat WoW, and 10-100 kW inverter prices flat WoW
43. c-Si module price history – factory gate ($/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of c-Si factory gate module spot price Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Each weekly price point assumes the FX rate that was current as of that week. For current week data, FX rate of 1 EUR=1.46 USD simple average of daily FX rate between X/X/2010 – X/X/2010 was used. 4% WoW decrease in reported c-Si module FG price 11% WoW decrease in month to date average of $1.89/W vs. monthly average price in December of $2.12/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 25 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
44. Cell price history ($/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of cell spot price Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Assumes current daily FX rate. 1% decrease WoW in reported cell prices Month to date average of $1.30/W flat vs. monthly average price in December of $1.30/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 26 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
45. Wafer price history ($/Piece, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/Piece Weekly reporting of wafer spot price Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Each weekly price point assumes the FX rate that was current as of that week. For current week data, wafer data points include 156 mm mono, 156mm multi. 4% increase WoW in reported wafer prices 1% increase in month to date average of $3.11/piece flat vs. monthly average price in December of $3.08/piece CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 27 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
46. Wafer price history ($/W, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/W Weekly reporting of wafer spot price Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Each weekly price point assumes the FX rate that was current as of that week Assume 5 inch wafer price is converted to $/W based on 2.42 Watt per wafer, and 6 inch wafer price is converted to $/W based on 3.77 Watt per wafer. Wafer data points include 156 mm mono, 156mm multi, 125 mono, 125 multi and majority of the data is 156 mm multi. 4% increase WoW in reported wafer prices 1% increase in month to date average of $0.83/W vs. monthly average price in December of $0.82/W CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 28 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
47. Silicon price history ($/kg, spot market, through X/X/2010) PRELIMINARY 1 Price in US$/kg Weekly reporting of silicon spot price Data updated X/X/2010 Next update by X/X/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 8% decrease WoW in reported silicon spot prices 7% decrease in month to date average of $59/kg vs. monthly average price in December of $59/kg CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 29 Illustrative data Axes and dates removed
48. Solar Updates Price PV system installation announcements Demand/market updates Company/supply updates Subscribe to Solar Updates CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 30
53. All reported projects come from either primary public sources such as company presentations and earnings transcripts or secondary public sources such as trade/business/popular press
54. Public announcements frequently do not contain specific information regarding module manufacturer or system installer. When explicit, we provide these details
55. To avoid potential confusion: Private/confidential data are not included in these estimates
57. Project sizes are captured either explicitly from an announcement or implicitly from secondary information provided in the announcement, such as aggregate project investment or expected output (kWh/year) of the system (labeled as “Estimate”)
69. Aggregated announcement volumes are not proportional to true installation volumes. Rather trends in announcement volumes – especially monthly averages – are a more reliable lead indicator of module demand and end customer appetite for downstream PV projects
71. The next version of this deck will be posted on Friday, May 7, 2010 by 8pm EST.2 Example Illustrative data Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Consistent methodology for collecting/reporting PV project announcements
72. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 32 Trailing 7-day project announcements (MW - 04/21/10 - 04/27/10) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Dark blue = estimated. ‘Europe - Unspec’ reflects European announcements with no country specified. ‘US - Unspec’ reflects US announcements with no state specified. ‘ROUS’= Rest of US. ‘TBD’ = To Be Determined. Announced volumes down 74% WoW Equates to 425MW monthly run rate
73. Trailing 30-day project announcements (MW - 04/21/10 - 04/27/10) PRELIMINARY Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Dark blue = estimated. ‘Europe - Unspec’ reflects European announcements with no country specified. ‘US - Unspec’ reflects US announcements with no state specified. ‘RONA’=Rest of North America. ‘TBD’ = To Be Determined. Data and graphics available for export CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 33 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010
74. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 34 Trailing 30-day project announcements (MW - by market - since 03/27/10) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Dark blue = estimated. ‘Europe - Unspec’ reflects European announcements with no country specified. ‘US - Unspec’ reflects US announcements with no state specified. ‘ROUS’= Rest of US. ‘TBD’ = To Be Determined. 2,400MW announced volume, 2,436MW total volume (incl. estimated volume) Equates to 29,229MW annual run rate
75. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 35 Trailing 30-day project announcements (MW - by market - since 03/27/10) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. ‘Europe - Unspec’ reflects European announcements with no country specified. ‘US - Unspec’ reflects US announcements with no state specified. ‘ROUS’= Rest of US. ‘TBD’ = To Be Determined. ‘Other’ includes ‘TBD’ projects. India 46% of total project announcements since 03/27/10
76. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 36 Trailing 30-day project announcements (MW - chronological - since 03/27/10) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Light blue = announced. Dark blue = estimated. Dotted blue divisions indicate new week. ‘Europe - Unspec’ reflects European announcements with no country specified. ‘US - Unspec’ reflects US announcements with no state specified. ‘ROUS’= Rest of US. ‘TBD’ = To Be Determined. 104 project announcements since 03/27/10
77. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 37 Recent system price examples ($/W) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. ‘ROUS’= Rest of US 1.3X range in system prices across markets and segments
78. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 38 Recent system price examples ($/W) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. ‘ROUS’= Rest of US. Light blue = announced. Dark blue = estimated. 1.3X range in system prices across markets and segments
79. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 39 Weekly totals (MW - since 11/01/2008) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. 382MW of announcements last week Weekly average of 634MW since 11/01/2008
80. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 40 Monthly totals (MW - since 09/01/2008) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. 2,222MW of announcements month-to-date in April
81. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 41 Project announcements - 2009-2010 (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. 30.2GW of announcements in 2009; 15.9GW YTD2010
82. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 42 Project announcements - 2009-2010 (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. 15.9GW of announcements YTD2010 compared to 8.0GW in 2009 thru 04/27
83. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 43 Announcements by market - 2010 (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Europe - Unspec’ reflects European announcements with no country specified. ‘US - Unspec’ reflects US announcements with no state specified. ‘ROUS’= Rest of US. ‘TBD’ = To Be Determined. California, ROUS and India lead project announcements in 2010YTD
84. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 44 Announcements by market - 2010 (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Europe - Unspec’ reflects European announcements with no country specified. ‘US - Unspec’ reflects US announcements with no state specified. ‘ROUS’= Rest of US. ‘TBD’ = To Be Determined. ‘Other’ includes ‘TBD’ projects. California represents 36% of total project announcements in 2010YTD
85. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 45 Number of announcements (# - since 01/09) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. 78 announcements month-to-date in April
86. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 46 Trailing 7-day announcements by completion date (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 49% of announced volumes for completion in 2010, 4% in 2011, 47% undisclosed
87. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 47 Trailing 30-day announcements by completion date (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 9% of announced volumes for completion in 2010, 5% in 2011, 31% undisclosed
88. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 48 2010 announcements by completion date (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 13% of announced volumes for completion in 2010, 4% in 2011, 62% undisclosed
89. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 49 2010 announcements by completion date (MW - YTD) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. 15.9GW of projects in 2010YTD with 2.0GW (13%) of projects to be completed in 2010
90. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 50 2010 announcements by completion date (% - YTD) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. 15.9GW of projects in 2010YTD with 2.0GW (13%) of projects to be completed in 2010
91. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 51 2009 announcements by completion date (MW - 01/01/09-12/31/09) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. In 2009, wide distribution of project installation year with no information available for nearly half of announced project volume
92. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 52 Apr 10 announcements by completion date (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 6% of announced volumes for completion in 2010, 1% in 2011, 32% undisclosed
93. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 53 Monthly announcements by completion date (MW) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. Monthly comparison of MW of announcements by completion date
94. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 54 Monthly announcements by completion date (% of MWs) PRELIMINARY 1 Example Illustrative data Data as of 04/27/2010 Next update by 05/07/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Current database numbers reflect 500MW adjustment to July 2009 announcement volumes, reflecting prior double-counting of project associated with partnership between Suntech and CECIC. Monthly comparison of % of announcements by completion date
95. Solar Updates Price PV system installation announcements Demand/market updates Company/supply updates Other updates Subscribe to Solar Updates CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 55
96. Market price and volume data - 2009 (Summary data) ROUGH ESTIMATES Data are intentionally removed Illustrative data Axes and data removed Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC as of January __, 2010. Note: All data are rough estimates. Demand curve components sum to a number larger than total annual installations due to work-in-progress installations. These are conservative estimates __GW supply, __GW shipments, __GW installs, $__/W FG ASP, $__/W system ASP CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 56
97. Market price and volume data - 2009 (Summary data) ROUGH ESTIMATES Data are intentionally removed Illustrative data Axes and data removed Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC as of January __, 2010. Note: All data are rough estimates. Demand curve components sum to a number larger than total annual installations due to work-in-progress installations. These are conservative estimates Data and graphics available for export CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 57
98. Global demand curve - 2009 ($/W and MW/yr) ROUGH ESTIMATES US$/W Illustrative data Axes and data removed Quarterly reporting of price and volume by market segment Data as of: __/__/2009 Next update by: 01/__/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Demand curve components sum to a number larger than total annual installations due to work-in-process installations. Demand curves reflect trailing six-month average exchange rates. __GW supply, __GW shipments, __GW installs, $__/W FG ASP, $__/W system ASP CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 58
99. Global installation volume by market - 2009 (MW/yr) ROUGH ESTIMATES Illustrative data Axes and data removed Data as of: 4/__/2009 Next update by: 04/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 3 largest markets in 2009: Germany (46%), Italy (8%) and Japan (6%) CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 59
100. Market price and volume data – 2010 (Summary data) ROUGH ESTIMATES Data are intentionally removed Illustrative data Axes and data removed Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC as of January __, 2010. Note: All data are rough estimates. Demand curve components sum to a number larger than total annual installations due to work-in-progress installations. These are conservative estimates __GW supply, __GW shipments, __GW installs, $__/W FG ASP, $__/W system ASP CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 60
101. Global demand curve - 2010 ($/W and MW/yr) ROUGH ESTIMATES US$/W Illustrative data Axes and data removed Quarterly reporting of price and volume by market segment Data as of: 04/__/2010 Next update by: 04/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Demand curve components sum to a number larger than total annual installations due to work-in-process installations. Demand curves reflect trailing six-month average exchange rates. __GW supply, __GW shipments, __GW installs, $__/W FG ASP, $__/W system ASP CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 61
102. Global installation volume by market - 2010 (MW/yr) ROUGH ESTIMATES Illustrative data Axes and data removed Data as of: 1/__/2009 Next update by: 01/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. 3 largest markets in 2010: Germany ( %), Italy ( %) and Japan ( %) CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 62
103. Solar Updates Price PV system installation announcements Demand/market updates Company/supply updates Subscribe to Solar Updates CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 63
104. Silicon production (2010) (Thousand tons - Bottom up) ROUGH ESTIMATE Illustrative data Axes and data removed Data as of: 01/__/2010 Next update by: 02/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. This slide reflects PHOTON Consulting’s most up-to-date company by company supply projections for 2010 and may not match supply data in other sections because of differing slide update frequencies (monthly vs. quarterly). 2010 silicon production bottom-up estimate for top 10 companies: __ thousand tons CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 64
105. Wafer production (2010) (MW - Bottom-up) ROUGH ESTIMATE Production in MW Illustrative data Axes and data removed Data as of: 01/__/2010 Next update by: 02/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. This slide reflects PHOTON Consulting’s most up-to-date company by company supply projections for 2010 and may not match supply data in other sections because of differing slide update frequencies (monthly vs. quarterly). 2010 wafer production bottom-up estimate for top 20 companies: __GW CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 65
106. Cell production (2010) (MW - Bottom-up) ROUGH ESTIMATE Production in MW Illustrative data Axes and data removed Data as of: 01/__/2010 Next update by: 02/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. This slide reflects PHOTON Consulting’s most up-to-date company by company supply projections for 2010 and may not match supply data in other sections because of differing slide update frequencies (monthly vs. quarterly). 2010 c-Si cell production bottom-up estimate for top 20 companies: __GW CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 66
107. c-Si module production (2010) (MW - Bottom-up) PRELIMINARY Production in MW Illustrative data Axes and data removed Data as of: 01/__/2010 Next update by: 02/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. This slide reflects PHOTON Consulting’s most up-to-date company by company supply projections for 2010 and may not match supply data in other sections because of differing slide update frequencies (monthly vs. quarterly). 2010 c-Si module production bottom-up estimate for top 20 companies: __GW CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 67
108. Thin film module production (2010) (MW - Bottom-up) ROUGH ESTIMATE Production in MW Illustrative data Axes and data removed Data as of: 01/__/2010 Next update by: 02/2010 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. This slide reflects PHOTON Consulting’s most up-to-date company by company supply projections for 2010 and may not match supply data in other sections because of differing slide update frequencies (monthly vs. quarterly). 2010 thin film module production bottom-up estimate for top 20 companies: __GW CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 68
109. Solar Updates Price PV system installation announcements Demand/market updates Company/supply updates Subscribe to Solar Updates CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 69
112. Phone: +1-617-262-57012 Source: PHOTON Consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rough estimates. Solar Updates: Critical PV information at your fingertips
113. CONFIDENTIAL info@photonconsulting.com 71 This sample information file is designed to demonstrate the sample data in the Solar Updates product. Data in Solar Updates may be different from this sample information file. Some data and Y-axes in this file were intentionally removed. This is a subset of the Solar Updates product for marketing purposes only. This document is confidential. Please do not forward or share it in any form.