090519 The Shape of Things to Come: Learning to See Human Capital Markets

The Shape of Things to Come

Understanding Recruiting Markets

© 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 1

Introductions

• Name
• Organization
• Brief Bio
• Goals for Today


Module 1: Spiky and Flat


Agenda: Spiky and Flat

• Lively Conversation on Demographic Changes

• Deliver Meaty Demographic Detail

• There Is No National Anything

• Deﬁne Opportunity

• Offer Solutions / Framework


Declining Fertility Rates
1950 2007
8.00

6.7 6.9
6.00
5.9 5.9
5.5

4.00
3.5
3.1
2.5 2.7
2.00 2.4
2
1.5

0 Sub Saharan Africa Middle East / N. Africa Asia Latin America / Carribean N. America Europe


Basic Dynamic

Population Growth Rate

Birth Rate

Death Rate
Time


Age Distribution

Working Age
Working Age


Demographic Transition
Digital, Cell, Internet, Technology

Other
Transitional
Forces Economic Miracle

Demographic Gift

Youth
Demographic
Investment Sustainable Growth

1945 1960 2010 2025
GDP Per Capita Growth Rate

Non-Industrial World


Industrial World


India


One Generation: Pakistan


Pyramids
• Embedded Historical View

• Familiar

• “They’re Everywhere”

• Family

• Community

• Organizations

• Government

• Invalid Assumption

Developmental Stages
70

55

40

25

10

Growth Maturity Decline Dying

Other Shapes
70

55

40

25

10

Adolescence Revitalization Layoffs Failed Renewals


Other Shapes??


Recap: Opportunity

• Organizational Shape Deﬁnes Opportunity Flow

• Opportunity Availability Deﬁnes Growth

• Opportunity Consolidates With Tenure

• Inexperience = Agility + Resilience = Growth

• Experimentation and Failure Essential For Survival


There Is No Nation


Immigration


Immigrants Native Born


Where Immigrants Go


Homeownership


Population Density

Source: Department of Commerce

Where The Roads Are


Population Plus GDP

Source: Yale – G-Econ Group

12 Mega Regions

Source: Who’s Your City

College Degree Distribution


How Obama Won


Red Blue by County


Prime Industry


Ethnicity


Unemployment By County


Regionalization of Work

Source: Who’s Your City?

Over 65 by MSA


Employment to Population Ratio


Median Earnings


Life Expectancy


Commute Time


US Workforce vs Population


Who Moves


Domestic Migration


Developmental Stages
70

55

40

25

10

Growth Maturity Decline Dying

No One Story, No One Nation

• Fencepost is the Midwest.
• Young are leaving fast
• Cities saved by immigrants
• Floating Box is Manufacturing, Metals, Agri
• Young are Gone
• Remnants are cash cows

Other Shapes
70

55

40

25

10

Adolescence Revitalization Layoffs Failed Renewals


Take Aways #1
• Generalizations Fail
• Paradoxical Trends
• Shrink while Growing
• Diverse Within Structure
• Spiky and Flat
• The Kids Are Leaving The Middle

Take Aways #2
• Let’s Discuss Conventional Wisdom
• Attrition is Bad
• Experience Is Good
• Circle of Trusted Advisors
• Retention Is Good
• Referral Programs are Smart
• HR/Recruiting Are Uniform

Take Aways 3
• Regional Culture Trumps National

• Many, Many Niches, All Different

• Elements of Culture

• Ethnicity

• Life Expectancy

• Manners and Customs

• Geography, Trafﬁc, Politics, Density


BREAK


Context

Module 2:
Diagnosis Application
Set Ideals
Understand

Understand The Basic Shapes


Pyramids

http://www.china-proﬁle.com/data/ani_ceu_pop.htm


Grant County, ND Orange County, FL


Atlanta Salt Lake City

© 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com

Mansﬁeld, OH San Francisco


San Antonio Detroit


Boston United States


http://sdrurallife.sdstate.edu/populationpyramids2.htm

Hughes County
South Dakota McPherson County

Fresno California Sacramento

Bakersﬁeld San Diego Chico

58

Austin Texas College Station

Dallas San Antonio Houston


Honolulu Hawaii

Kauai Maui 60

Pittsburgh Cleveland Detroit

Grand Rapids Bloomington Flint


Boston New York, NY Philadelphia

Atlanta Washington, DC Baltimore

62


Denver Seattle Portland,

San Jose Oakland Los Angeles
63


Migration
Life Expectancy Ethnicity

Education Shaping Baby Boom
Factors

College Town Industry

Religion Manners


BREAK


Diagnostics


Making Your Own
Charts


BREAK


Where Opportunity Goes


Where Everything Else Flows


■High Growth
■Hierarchical
■Innovative
■Entrepreneurial
■Startups, Bio-Tech

■Modest Growth
■Distributed
■Incremental Improvement
■Procedural
■New Fortune 500

■Very Low Growth
■Increasingly Hierarchical
■Opportunity Consolidates at Top
■Procedural
■Old Media, New Mfg, Retail

■Death Spiral
■Punitive Cultural Enforcement
■No Retention of the Young
■Grasping
■Autos, Metals, Old Mfg

Your Goals


Geo Shape

Current Shape

Desired End State


Wrap Up


090519 The Shape of Things to Come: Learning to See Human Capital Markets

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