AWS Community Day CPH - Three problems of Terraform
Bednets And Bureaucrats
1. The costs and complexities of climate change, from South Africa to Capitol Hill
Joe Indvik
ICF International
joe.indvik@gmail.com
Bednets and Bureaucrats
1
3. 3
Malaria
is a threat to half of the global population, mostly developing countries.
is preventable and treatable if you have the resources.
Climate Change
is spread by…
Mosquitos
breed in hot, wet locations.
increase malaria incidence as their population grows.
will be bolstered by...
10. 10
Malaria is one example of damages
caused by climate change.
Malaria is preventable but already kills
hundreds of thousands of people per year.
Emissions from the developed world hit
the developing world hardest.
The prevention of climate change
is equally complex.
11. How?
How much?
Is it worth it?
Why haven’t we done it?
Reducing Emissions
The four big questions:
11
13. Quantity of fossil fuels produced
Price
The Economics of Climate Change
External Costs
Private Cost
Demand
13
14. Quantity of fossil fuels produced
Price
The Economics of Climate Change
External Costs
Private Cost
Demand
Public Cost
14
ActualOptimal
Putting a price on carbon aligns
the private cost of climate
change with the costs to society.
16. Climate Damage Pathways
16
Carbon
Emissions
More Solar
Energy
Trapped
Global
Warming
Biological
Disruption
Geographical
Disruption
Economic
Disruption
Political
Upheaval
Social
Conflict
Demographic
Change
Health
Impacts
Net Cost
Economic
Activity
Effect on
Atmosphere
Effect on
Earth Systems
Effect on
Social Systems
The relationship between carbon emissions and net social cost
The relationship is complicated! This makes it hard to determine the best carbon price.
It is made even more complex by…
19. 19
The Economics of Climate Change
The Damage Function
Atmospheric CO2
Damage
19
If we could perfectly predict
climate change, the solution
would be simple.
20. 20
The Economics of Climate Change
The Damage Function
Atmospheric CO2
Damage
20
?But there is a range of uncertainty
around potential damages
And a chance of low-probability, high-impact
events resulting from feedback loops
i.e. the end of civilization as we know it
22. Why haven’t we done it?
NIMBY
“Not in my back yard”
NIMTO
“Not in my term
of office”
Tragedy of the Commons
Concentrated
pain, diffuse
pleasure
Uncertainty
22
23. How?
Put a price on carbon
How much?
Substantially Under 450 ppm
Is it worth it?
The better question is: Can we risk it?
Why haven’t we done it?
Human Nature
Reducing Emissions
My answers to the big questions:
23
25. 25
For the first time in history
Both the actions of bureaucrats on the other
side of the world and the availability of simple
technologies like bednets will dictate the well-
being of half the world’s population.
Policy, politics, wealth, and health interact on
the global stage like never before.
Can we find a solution?