PLI GET presentation May 2010

1. Scenario Planning James C. Galvin, Ed.D. April 20, 2009

2. Organizations can become paralyzed by turbulence or chaos

3. You fear your organization may adapt too slowly to unexpected changes

4. You want to create robust strategies that will weather any storm

5. Use scenario planning to help your organization grow more resilient

6. Tyndale House Publishers was a growing company

7. 20,000 copies

8. 40,000 copies

9. 80,000 copies

10. 350,000 copies

11. 900,000 copies

12. 1,400,000 copies

13. 1,800,000 copies

14. 2,400,000 copies

15. What’s going to happen next?

16. Scenario planning is a way to plan when facing critical uncertainties

17. Scenario planning is not…

18. Rapid-cycle scenario planning is a high-yield six-step process

19. Step 1: Determine your focus

20. Step 2: Identify driving forces

21. Step 3: Surface questions that matter

22. Step 4: Explore alternative scenarios

23. Step 5: Identify strategic priorities

24. Step 6: Develop your action plan

25. Tyndale House still had four titles remaining in the series

26. Tyndale House strategic focus How should we respond to this unprecedented growth?

27. Tyndale House driving forces Lack of trained staff in all areas Distribution capacity squeezed Less ability for sales reps to give attention to individual products New marketing channels and emerging opportunities Stewardship of capital Pressure to compromise values Pressure from agents to up ante Decline of established channels (CBA, ABA, chains, independents) Author expectations going up More competition for good authors Harder to maximize mid-size properties Consumers turning to other media Shrinking labor pool Channels enforcing legislative regulations Decline of reading/literacy Environmental concerns Global marketplace Core market becoming more postmodern

28. Continued… Spiritual needs intensifying, interest in spiritual things increasing New, younger market Non-English speaking demographics Pressure to have bigger projects and addiction to big releases Secular markets opening up Rise of nontraditional competitors New, small publishers emerging Internet sales increasing Rise of E-books Pressure to establish brand quickly and have quick pay back Need for brand managers to leverage our brands Strategic alliances with others who own strong brands Lack of time for new lines Reduction of shelf life of new bibles More intense competition Need for evangelism Crowded marketplace Consumers wanting to design their own Bibles

29. Tyndale House questions that matter Will general interest in spiritual things go up or down? Will bookstores struggle or thrive? Big box stores vs. bookstores CBA vs. ABA Christian chains vs. Independents

30. Tyndale House scenario logic

31. Brand X scenario logic

32. ACSI scenario logic

33. G&A scenario logic

34. G&A scenarios

35. Use scenario planning to help your organization grow more resilient

36. Everyone in the organization will feel more confident about your future

37. G&A www.galvinandassociates.com