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The future will be different cisco expo slovenia 2011, 20110310 v1.1 jg
- 1. Cisco Expo 2011
THE FUTURE WILL BE
DIFFERENT
Jožek Gruškovnjak
Director, Cisco IBSG
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
- 2. "Prediction is very difficult, especially
about the future." Niels Bohr, Nobel
Laureate
"There is no reason anyone would want
a computer in their home." Ken Olson,
founder of Digital Equipment
Corporation
"Who wants to hear actors talk?" H.M.
Warner, cofounder of Warner Brothers,
1927
"The wireless music box [radio] has no
imaginable commercial value." Said to
David Sarnoff, founder of NBC
"This 'telephone'... is inherently of no
value to us." Western Union memo,
1876
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
3
- 3. Exponential
times
Mega-trends
and megachallenges
The role of
IT…
The future will
be different…
Shaping the
past, present
and future
How do deal
with the “new
normal”
… and
opportunities
for service
providers
… and will favor
the brave.
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
4
- 4. Exponential times
Bell Labs, 9/2009
15.5 Tbps
400 DVD/sec, 7000 km
2000 Download
Time
2009
Download
Time
4 GB DVD
Movie
3 days
2 hours
3 MB MP3
Audio
3 minutes
5 seconds
1MB Email
1 minute
2 seconds
Speed / Bandwidth
Activity
Ethernet Protocol
Standardized
AT&T’s Bell
103 modem
300 bps
1962
9,600
bps
1980
100 Gigabit
Ethernet
100 Gbps
10 Gigabit
Ethernet
10 Gbps
Gigabit
Ethernet
1 Gbps
Fast
Ethernet
100 Mbps
Ethernet
10 Base T
10 Mbps
28,800 56,600
bps
bps
1989 1990
1995
1998
2003
2010
Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_802.3; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_device_bit_rates
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
1984
Internet Business Solutions Group
1997
2006
Cisco Confidential
5
- 5. Exponential times
Core i7 i980
1,17B transistors,
147,600 MIPS
160,000
Interactive gaming, …
Quad 2 Duo
quad core
140,000
Performance (MIPS)
Launches the content & video boom
820 transistors,
59.455 MIPS
120,000
Launches the laptop boom
Core 2 Duo
100,000
291M transistors,
27,709 MIPS
Launches the Internet boom
80,000
Launches the PC boom
60,000
Pentium M
80286
40,000
55M transistors,
5,935 MIPS
Pentium
3.1M transistors,
112 MIPS
123k transistors,
2.66 MIPS`
20,000
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Sources: Intel Corporation, 2010; Dr. Steve Reyer; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_microprocessors
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
6
- 6. Exponential times
Core i7 i980
1,17B transistors,
147,600 MIPS
160,000
Interactive gaming, …
Quad 2 Duo
quad core
140,000
Performance (MIPS)
Launches the content & video boom
120,000
Launches the laptop boom
Launches the Internet boom
Core 2 Duo
27,709 MIPS
ARM processor architecture
Pentium M
≈55M transistors,
1,600 DMIPS @ 800 MHz
Pentium
80286
40,000
Apple iPhone 4
• Apple A4291M transistors,
processor
100,000
80,000
Launches the PC boom
60,000
820 transistors,
59.455 MIPS
5,935 MIPS
• 512 MB RAM
3.1M transistors,
112 MIPS
123k transistors,
2.66 MIPS`
• 16 or 32 GB flash drive
20,000
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Sources: apple.com, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARM_architecture
Intel Corporation, 2010; Dr. Steve Reyer; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_microprocessors
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
7
- 7. Exponential times
Movable type.
Johannes Gutenberg
Print in digital format.
Text. Photos. Audio.
Video. Together.
1439
2007
2010
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
8
- 8. Entertainment
Central living
device
Changing media
consumption
and distribution
Providing
relevant
information
Communication
Media
Computing
Transportation
Information
Entertainment
and group
communication
Main
creation
device
Mobile
communication
platform?
…living the six-screen life
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
9
- 9. Exponential times
Members (millions)
600
• Facebook: 4th most popular web site
500
500M+ unique visitors 3rd most populous
nation worldwide
60% USA retailers maintain fan page
400
50% users log-in every day
30B photos uploaded to Facebook in 2010
300
• Visits to social shopping sites ↑ 244%
200
Etsy, kaboodle, Crowdstorm
100
>25% adults posted product reviews
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
• 126M blogs on the WW internet
• 90M+ Tweets on Twitter per day
• 82% of Internet users view videos
online
Sources: Facebook, 1/2011; techcrunch.com;
• Interactive gamers purchase real
goods
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
10
- 10. Exponential times
• Driven by consumers…
79% of global IP traffic in 2009
60,000
PB per month
70,000
forecasted to grow to 87% by
2014
50,000
• … by video
40,000
growing from 38% of all IP
traffic in 2009 to 55% in 2014
30,000
20,000
• … and mobile data
10,000
growing with 108% CAGR
between 2009 and 2014
increasing 39 x
2009
2010
Consumer IPTV/CATV
Consumer Internet Video
Business Internet
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2011
2012
2013
2014
Consumer Internet Data
Business Managed IP
Mobile Data
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
11
- 11. Exponential times
Digital Universe - exabytes
Digital data is increasing 10 x every 5 years
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
2020
2018 2019
2017
2015 2016
2014
2012 2013
2011
2009 2010
2007 2008
Source: The Digital Universe Decade – Are You Ready?, IDC, May 2010
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
12
- 12. Web 4.0
Individual and Group Productivity
2020–2030
Agents and
reasoning
Semantic
Web
Web 3.0
2010–2020
Semantic
search
Web 2.0
Naturallanguage
search
2000–2010
Web 1.0
1990–2000
Keyword
search
PC Era
1980–1990
Websites,
email, directories
The
Web OS
Tagging and
folksonomies
World
Wide
Web
Folders,
databases, lists
Desktop
Size of Data, Size of Groups
Sources: Radar Networks and Nova Spivack, 2007; Cisco IBSG, 2008
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
13
- 13. Exponential times
18,000
Global Exports (B$)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: World Trade Organization Statistical Database, March 2011
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
14
- 14. Exponential times
8.0
6.0
More developed regions
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0.0
1980
2.0
2025
4.0
1975
Population (billions)
10.0
World
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, UNDESA, online database: http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
15
- 16. Exponential times
300
200
(2005 = 100)
Commodity prices index
250
150
100
50
0
Fuel / Energy
Food
Industrial Inputs
Source: Index Mundi
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
17
- 17. Exponential times
90,000
10.0%
80,000
8.0%
70,000
6.0%
4.0%
60,000
2.0%
50,000
0.0%
40,000
-2.0%
30,000
-4.0%
20,000
-6.0%
10,000
-8.0%
-
-10.0%
1980
1985
1990
World GDP
Advanced Economies
Slovenia
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
World
Emerging and developing economies
Source: World Economic Outlook database, October 2010, International Monetary Fund
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
18
- 18. NEW NORMAL
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
19
- 19. Exponential
times
Mega-trends
and megachallenges
The role of
IT…
The future will
be different…
Shaping the
past, present
and future
How do deal
with the “new
normal”
… and
opportunities
for service
providers
… and will favor
the brave.
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
20
- 20. Mega-Trends
Globalisation
Aging Population
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Increased Asian
competition
Sustainability:
environmental
and economic
Innovation
Efficiency
”Personalisation”
Effectiveness
Rapid
customer
adoption of new
technologies
Mega-Challenges
Productivity
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
21
- 21. Superior Customer Experiences and the Borderless Organization
Mega-Challenges
Business Transformation Models
INNOVATION:
Improve innovation to
provide your company
with differention and a
competitive edge in the
eyes of customers
Revenue
&
PRODUCTIVITY:
Improve productivity
through cross-functional
collaboration (including
partners)
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Profits
Opex
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
22
- 22. Value is maximized when both areas are pursued on intra
and inter-company level
Value
Innovation
Innovation2
Innovation
Inter-organization
+
Productivity
Intra-organization
Productivity
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Productivity2
Technology
Leverage
Cisco Confidential
23
- 23. Controlling Efficiency
Is Commonplace
Productivity / Impact
Process automation and
re-engineering are
important, but not
enough…
Information sharing
1990
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Transactions
2000
Interactions
2005
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
24
- 24. “People” costs: 84%
Other costs: 16%
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
25
- 25. Controlling Efficiency
Is Commonplace
Optimizing Human
Interactions
Productivity / Impact
Process automation and
re-engineering are
important, but not
enough…
Today’s environment
requires collaboration as an
organizational competency
to empower employees
Workforce productivity
achieved with employees,
ecosystem, and customers
Information sharing
1990
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Transactions
2000
Interactions
Collaboration
2005
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
26
- 26. Web 2.0
Collaboration
Solutions
1.1 B$
Web 1.0
Internet
Solutions
3.3 B$
Information sharing
1995
Transactions
2000
Interactions
2005
Collaboration
2008
2009
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
27
- 27. Cisco Benefits: $1.05B* Net, 4.9% Productivity Increase
$486M
• Reduce real estate
• Avoid travel
$85M
• Create new
revenue streams
• Scale expertise
• Increase customer
intimacy
• Enhance executive
communication
Reduce
costs to
improve
profitability
Transform
business to
increase
growth
* Based on $1.168 billion gross
contribution minus costs of $116 million
$483M
Save time
to increase
efficiency
Speed
process to
increase
agility
•
•
•
•
Reduce travel
Reduce commuting
Find people faster
Find information faster
$115M
• Shorten sales cycle
• Speed time to market
• Reduce decision-making delays
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
28
- 28. Exponential
times
Mega-trends
and megachallenges
The role of
IT…
The future will
be different…
Shaping the
past, present
and future
How do deal
with the “new
normal”
… and
opportunities
for service
providers
… and will favor
the brave.
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
29
- 29. “Old world”
“New Normal”
Corporate ‘lab’ innovation approach
Open innovation (suppliers/partners/customers)
Efficient consumer transactions
Personalized interactions, real-time dialogue
Business mainly inside corporation
External collaboration becomes commonplace
Workforce primarily in-house
Flexible, remote workers (home, on the road)
Capex financing, manage utilization
Opex, avoid unnecessary cost, ‘pay as you go’
Sustainability lower priority
Sustainability: business as usual
Standard devices, basic capabilities
Multiple (PC/Mac, iPhone/BB), video-enabled
Consistent user experience is needed
Intra-company
PC. laptop
Any device
Text
Any media
In house
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Inter-company
Any location
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
30
- 30. Core question: what is your IT budget balance?
Innovation and business
transformation
Infrastructure operations
“Keeping the lights on”
70% of the IT Budget for Maintenance, 30% Available for Innovation*
*Source: Gartner - IT Infrastructure, And The Shift To “Real-Time”
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
31
- 31. Need to rebalance – business alignment and
transformation are key
Innovation and business
transformation
Infrastructure operations
“Keeping the lights on”
Allows innovation &
drives competitive advantage
Creates flexibility & reduces costs
*Source: Gartner - IT Infrastructure, And The Shift To “Real-Time”
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
32
- 33. CIO of Fortune 500 Pharmaceutical Company
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
34
- 34. Internet Companies
(“OTT”)
Service
Providers
Systems Integrators &
Server Vendors
Typical
Players
Unique
Assets
Competitive
Advantage
• Global Footprint
• Massive Scale
• Fast Moving
• Stability Concerns
Challenges
• Security & privacy
• End-to-End Network/IT
• Strong SI Capability
• Security & SLAs
• Enterprise Trust
• Application QoS to CPE
• SMB
Channels/Brand
• Priced higher than OTTs
• Professional service
capabilities vs. large SIs
• No End-to-End
Control
• Business agility
Source: Cisco IBSG SP
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
35
- 35. Global Telecommunications Market Capitalization
4
Wave 1
US$Trillions
Wave 3
PTT
Web 1.0
Deregulation
Basic Internet
POTs
Mobile voice
TDM
3
Wave 2
TDM / IP
Web 2.0
Broadband, video,
mobile data,
network as a
platform, IP
2
?
1
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Year
Source: Dow Jones Global Telecoms Index, to June 3, 2009; Cisco IBSG, 2009
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
36
- 36. Exponential
times
Mega-trends
and megachallenges
The role of
IT…
The future will
be different…
Shaping the
past, present
and future
How do deal
with the “new
normal”
… and
opportunities
for service
providers
… and will favor
the brave.
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
37
- 37. Some statements CEOs agree with
• The correction will impact advanced economy consumer
spending for several years to come (5.34)
• IT-enabled changes will be a key element of our post
recession strategy (5.13)
• Emerging economies are poised for am multiyear period
of rapid growth and a rising standard of living (4.96)
• The next decade will be far more volatile and
unpredictable than the last (4.95)
• There will be a major wave of merger-and-acquisition
(M&A) activity in 2010/2011 (4.95)
• Many companies and industries will have to redesign
their business models (4.90)
Source: Gartner CEO & Business Executive Survey 2010
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
38
- 38. Spending more on new investments
By how much, if at all, do you expect your organization’s IT budget for
operating expenses and new investments will change in 2010?
Source: McKinsey Global Survey results: IT in the new normal, McKinsey & Company, 2009
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
39
- 39. Five areas where
the CIO is key
to drive business value
1.
Secure alignment between business transformation and technology
architectures
2.
Evolve IT team skills e.g. architecture, risk management, business
understanding
3.
Substantiate the business impact of IT
4.
Actively participate in cross-functional initiatives
5.
Pilot new technologies
The winning CIO in the New Normal
must think like an entrepreneur.
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
40
- 40. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
41
- 41. There is no challenge without
crisis.
A crisis can be a real blessing to
any person, to any nation, for all
crises bring progress.
The true crisis is the crisis of
incompetence.
Albert Einstein
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
42
- 42. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet Business Solutions Group
Cisco Confidential
43
- 43. Thank you.
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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Cisco Confidential
44