The Top Grossing Mobile Games: Dissected and Explained | Nebojsha Mitrikeski
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Delivered at Casual Connect Eastern Europe 2018. Take a look at in-depth market research on the Top Grossing mobile games. This research begins with a broad view of the growing mobile market and drills down to the DNA of the top grossing games. Snowball's Game Director Nebojsha Mitrikeski will talk about revenues, genres, game mechanics, economic systems, market trends, long term retention, and engagement, all the way to LTV and live-ops growth. Find out everything you need to know in order to have a chance at launching a successful game yourself!
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The Top Grossing Mobile Games: Dissected and Explained | Nebojsha Mitrikeski
- 1. THE TOP GROSSING MOBILE GAMES: DISSECTED AND EXPLAINED NEBOJSHA MITRIKESKI / GAME DIRECTOR / SNOWBALLGAMES.IO
- 2. Introduction: How this research came to be - Snowball Games, a new indie company, needed a roadmap. - Compiled years of reports from all of the leading data companies. - Personally playtested 550 games and recorded the data findings. - Picking the right game for the market is the best prequel to live-ops growth. - Ordered huge data mining from Apptopia with specific rulesets. - All the processed data in this research is from October 2016 to July 2018.
- 3. Active Smartphone Users: Global Market Growth 3 Bn Smartphones September 2018 2.35Bn Gamers >11% YoY Growth 1.22Bn PC Gamers 638M Consoles
- 4. Global Games Market: 2017 vs 2018 1. $37.9Bn China April 2018 2. $30.4Bn USA 3. $19.2Bn Japan 4. $5.65Bn Korea 5. $4.69Bn Germany 6. $4.45Bn UK 7. $3.13Bn France 8. $2.31Bn Canada Mobile gaming will continue to be the largest segment following 10 years of double-digit growth since the first iPhone was launched in 2007.
- 5. Rise of the Android Market(s): It IS finally happening! May - July 2018 USA - July 2018 - In 2017 smartphones finally evened out from technological POV. - 1.5 M Android devices activated daily. - 2018 KPI Facts: 1 iOS user is worth ~ 4-5 Android users (in ADs), and ~ 2-3 Android users (for IAPs). - Android ‘spenders’ do exist, they just need to be carefully targeted by UA. - Since 2017 we’re seeing top grossing games that make the same amount of IAP revenue (~ 50/50). - Not evened out: the ‘spender mindset’.
- 6. Mobile Games Market: Lifecycle + Forecast(s) The mobile games market looks extremely promising! July 2018 Is there a catch? What are the cons???
- 7. The TOP Grossing Games in USA: (for WW: iOS x3.5) GP:iOS (USA) Oct’16 - Mar’18: TOP 5000 iOS GAMES (USA) 31% 32% 26% 4% 4%3% 7 games make > $100M 65 games make $10M - $100M 3773 games make $3K - $200K 410 games make $1M - 10M 255 games make $500K - $1M 490 games make $200K - $500K The rest (795,000 games) make ~ $0 ...and it’s getting even scarier! 807 games total 289 170 298 46 4
- 8. The Google Play Store has > 1,000,000 active games (as of March 2018) The iOS App Store has ~ 800,000 active games (as of March 2018) The TOP Grossing Games in USA: Tier 1 and Tier 2 TIER 2: 1310 games make more than $10K monthly (or $30K WW) [1 in 600] TIER 1: 467 games make more than $33K monthly (or $100K WW on both stores) TIER 2: 807 games make more than $10K monthly (or $30K WW on both stores) April 2018 TIER 1: 665 games make more than $33K monthly (or $100K WW) [1 in 1200]
- 9. - The market still grows, but at the same time it shows serious maturity signs. The TOP Grossing Games in USA: Newcomers Penetration - Professional production pipeline is now industry standard (the indie hit wonders are not happening anymore). - Big established studios take the lion’s share of the market. TOP 1310 iOS GAMES (USA) OLD GAMES = 1010 NEW GAMES = 300 TOP 665 iOS GAMES (USA) OLD GAMES = 535 NEW GAMES = 130 23% 77% 20% 80%GP: 17% | 83% GP: 11% | 89% TIER 2: TIER 1:
- 10. - Prepare to invest Big $ to earn Huge $$$! MUST HAVE detailed understanding of: OK, so what do we need to know to get on top and profit?!? - Ninja level of Marketing and User Acquisition! - Types of games, eco-systems and users. Let’s dig deeper and see the DNA of the top grossing games. - World class production of games. - Analyzing long term and short term trends. - Analytics: Retention, DAU, MAU, Engagement, LTV. - Be properly prepared for Soft Launch & Global Launch.
- 11. Strategy Puzzle Action RPG Sports Arcade Adventure Simulation Hyper Casual Racing Auto Battle Narrative heavy Fighting Board Family Tower Defense TXT Attack Platformer FPS Card (non-casino) Incremental Music Hack & Slash Serving (TM) MOBA Other Casino / Slots 75 52 28 25 17 17 14 13 13 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 8 42 1560 - City Builder 66 7 33 - Match 3Bubble Shooter Word 51 52 29 39 17 20 23 21 14 27 5 31 10 8 9 2 0 10 4 5 7 3 12 5 3 5 26 18 18 33 - City Builder 20 - Match 3 8 Word Bubble Shooter 6 TOP 300 iOS, USA (alltime) TOP 300 iOS, USA (newcomers) The REAL Game Genres and Subgenres April 2018
- 12. 68% of users will delete a brand app if it doesn't provide a great experience. TOP 300 iOS USA (all time) TOP 300 iOS USA (newcomers) Live PvP Live PvP7% 21% Growth factor: x3 (in 2017 only) Long Term Market Trends: Live PvP | Brand IPs TOP 300 iOS, USA (all time) TOP 300 iOS, USA (newcomers) Brand Games 25% 17% Brand Games April 2018
- 13. Long Term Market Trends: Level Types TOP 300 iOS, USA (all time) TOP 300 iOS, USA (newcomers) 58%28% 14% 9% 49% 42% Casino Casino Levels Progression Levels Progression Level-UpLevel-Up April 2018 Levels Progression games spike, paired with narrative heavy subgenres spikes equals not-so-great news for developers, because these games take much longer to produce, but the maturing market shows that the users want content rich games.
- 14. Analytics: Long Term Retention Benchmarks USA Top Games: iOS - Retention + ARPU (AVGs) USA Top Games: GP - Retention + ARPU (AVGs) ARPU $9.91 ARPU $12.93 ARPU $5.71 ARPU $6.22 LT Retention: 36.5% / 13.2% / 6.1% LT Retention: 39.5% / 14.8% / 6.5% ARPU $7.82 ARPU $8.42 ARPU $3.07 ARPU $3.50 LT Retention: 27.1% / 9.2% / 4.4% LT Retention: 27.4% / 9.8% / 4.3%
- 15. Analytics: DAU, MAU and Engagement Benchmarks USA Top Games: iOS - DAU, MAU & ENG (AVGs) USA Top Games: GP - DAU, MAU & ENG (AVGs) ENG 54.16% ENG 55.71% ENG 45.71% ENG 47.01% ENG 56.78% ENG 61.31% ENG 40.38% ENG 41.25% April 2018
- 16. iOS users spend 28% more than Android users, and the share of Paying Users is 50% higher. $1.70 90-Day LTV (ARPU) Combines IAP+ADs revenue, organic & paid traffic $70.27 90-Day ARPPU Combines organic & paid traffic 3.8% Share of Paying Users Combines organic & paid traffic Strange fact: Organic share of Paying Users is almost the same as Non-Organic, but Organic Paying Users spend 34% more! LTV > eCPI : The Science Behind The Profit June 2018
- 17. - The game economy system health (chance to tweak it). - Can last between 40 and 150 days. Be prepared to iterate a LOT. Soft Launch: Analyze, Update, Repeat, until it’s Profitable! - Technical bugs fixing. Analytics from Soft Launch will validate: - Test ASO (app store optimization); helps your organic growth. - Test Creatives (playable ads are a must); just do as much as you can! - Growth projections (LTV), plan your budget for Global Launch. - Retention (kill the game or go global). July 2018 - Soft Launch might not save your game, but it will save your company.
- 18. - Prepare to invest Big $ to earn Huge $$$! Plan your Live-Ops properly: Global Launch: Go BIG or Go Home! - Keep working on the creatives. - Additional content to keep re-engaging the users. - Plan the paid UA to keep the users volume up. - New downloads to counter the churn rate.
- 19. Thanks for listening! :) NEBOJSHA.MITRIKESKI@SNOWBALLGAMES.IO Market Research by: Nebojsha Mitrikeski Questions?
Notas do Editor
- - Hi, I’m Neb, and I’m the Game Director at Snowball Games. - One of the tasks I loved doing - market research! (Snowball needed one)
- - Mobile market is huge, and it’s getting even bigger. - Mobile gamers growth is gigantic, it’s 500 million more than PC & Console combined!
- - Of the leading markets, I’ll further focus on the US market, because is we don’t count (China, Japan & Korea - which are a whole other talk) the rest of the world mirrors the US market and generally have the same games in the top-grossing charts. - NewZoo forecasts that the mobile market will continue it’s double digit growth and by 2021 the mobile alone will be a 100 billion dollar industry.
- - Forecasters are saying it’s gonna happen since 2012… but iOS still (today) remains with at least ⅔ of the revenues, while having only ⅓ of the downloads. - 2 B Android devices worldwide, and rising. - LATAM region is already a $5Bn market, this puts it in front of Germany for example (which is the 5th largest market by country). - India & Indonesia have the fastest growing average spend per gamer, and in the next two years they’ll also become $5Bn markets.
- All those awesome numbers and growth are happening because the market is in the growth phase (naturally, it won’t stay there forever)
- - I was surprised when I saw revenues dropping below $10K monthly after 1300 games, meaning all the games that followed after the Top-1300 basically don’t make any $. The situation on GP is even scarier, only 807 games make sustainable money (defined on the next slide).
- - TIER 2: the ones that make OK revenues (you’ll just need a few of them to get ahead) - TIER 1: the ones that make self-sustainable revenues. Everything else approximates to $0 revenue - it’s the scary side of the market.
- *newcomers: games not older than 18 months - Viewed as a %, the newcomers give hope (growth side of the market), - But viewed as a number of games, it’s a bit scary (maturity side of the market). - So as you see the market has it’s PROs and CONs, which we have to be aware of (go to next slide)
- - We saw only 1300 games make sustainable $$$, and in the rest 1M games there are dozens of them that are very well made, but are missing some of these key components, usually it’s unplanned Marketing and UA, or more importantly, weak economy systems in the game (where the user isn’t incentivized to spend).
- - The app stores don’t offer the real picture of the game types, the categories are used as just another marketing tool. - This is why I played 550 games and recorded the data about it. - Everyone points out that Strategy / Puzzle / Casino are the BIG 3 that make the revenues - this is only technically true, and a bit misleading. - The newcomers show other genres as future trendsetters. (I’m talking on a genre level here, not about world phenomenon cross-platform games like Fortnite)
- - Mid-core leaning game elements aren’t just possible, they’ve already proven themselves across the top-charts. - Users are more likely to play these games >5 hours a week, and far more likely to spend money in them. They will outperform their peers in 2018/2019. - Not so great news for Brand IPs...
- - The core mechanics still have to be nailed down perfectly, but content rich world class production is becoming an equally important thing.
- - The industry standard is 40/20/10, but the long term retention (averages) show a different picture. - AVG long term retention shows lower numbers, and we can use these as long-term benchmarks to avoid panic and plan accordingly, as long as the ARPU is strong. - They all have strong ARPUs (any D30 ARPU above $3 is great)
- - Strong ENG is >50% (wrong, will fix soon), Alltimers have it, and the Newcomers struggle to achieve it (it’s normal, they’re New, need time to gain loyal users) - (iOS) MAU on Top 1310 = DAU on Top 665 - imagine the difference; this is what makes the Top 665 much better earners. - (Android) Alltimers have abundance of users while newcomers struggle.
- - Courtesy of AppsFlyer. - Analytics start with the Retention and end with the LTV. LTV is the most important metric in your game, it basically tells you how much you can afford to spend on UA. - Share of Paying Users is 50% higher on iOS - confirmation that on Android, the ‘spender mindset’ isn’t completely there yet.
- Soft Launch might not save your game, but it will save your company!
- Final Conclusion: The current state of the market is: Go BIG or Go Home, meaning you will either make great revenues (if everything is properly prepared) or make no revenue at all!