1. Wind Turbine Generation Forecasts
15 slides
1 DONG Energy april 2009

2. Outline
How do optimize your/the performance of your Wind Parks from birth to
adult life with respect to the impact of climate?
About ConWx
Risk in connection with wind parks
Balancing Power (short, mid and
long term)
Power Trading and planning
Others
It’s all about Weather Risk Management……
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3. Who are we?
A forecasting centre with 5 core business areas
Forecasting Metocean Wind Power Numerical Energy Trading
Consultancy Forecasts Forecasts Weather Forecasts
Predictions
From Weather Predictions to Business Value
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4. Sectors and services
ConWx- a forecasting centre
Service Areas
Renewable lifecycle engagement
Wind Parks (experience from ALL offshore parks)
-Site Assessments ConWx offers a full range of services
-Metocean Forecasts covering the entire lifecycle of renewable
-WTG Power Forecasts for +2400 units
investment projects, combining in-depth
wind industry expertise and best practices
Numerical Weather and Wave Predictions
in management consulting, forecasting and
(global services)
site services
Energy trading services and forecasts
State-of-the-art Wind Turbine Generation
Predictions, metocean forecasting and
Energy Demand Forecasts
numerical weather predictions
Forecasting and climatic consultancy The only company with operational
experience in power prediction and
Water & Environment metocean forecasts for offshore parks
Your power is to know
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5. Volume and price risks
Risk management and resource planning in connection with all Wind
Business work concerns the following areas:
Planning (volume)
Construction (volume)
Balancing (volume and price)
Grid Operator/TSO (volume)
Trading (price)
O&M (volume)
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6. Balancing responsibilty
- Day a head power forecasts (obligation)
- 7 days power forecasts (common)
- Monthly power forecasts (tomorrow)
Uncertainty:
•Timing and numerical size of
production
•1 m/s error gives up to 30%
error in production
•Error pr turbine/park pr.
year: 10-20% (MAPE/yr)
WTG Forecasting minimizes balancing challenges
=> Higher revenue=> Less Co2 emission
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7. The needs of today and tomorrow
Today needs
Primary :
-Balancing responsible, “day a head” forecast
-System operators, 0-7 days forecasts
Secondary:
-Short term power trading, intra day
-O&M
Near Future
-Balancing penalty all areas,
longer than “day a head”
-Now casting in order to optimize LFC
-Increased intraday trading intensity
-Demand for CO2 reduction
This gives higher demands to balancing and O&M
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8. How to optimize forecast and O&M?
A physical model predicts power
from power curve and weather data
…But Power Curves varies
-With season
-With wind direction
-Air and sea temperature
Season: Vegetation changes
Wind direction: Shade,
Wake effects and topography
Power curve, two periods
Temperature: Lower temp=>
Source: Sanchez (2006)
higher production
Using SCADA data as intelligent input to forecasting models
improves the basis for daily decissions
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9. Artificial Neural Network Forecasting System
Neural Network:
-Mathematical model
-Solves the problems without
creating model
-Recognition of patterns
Learning by trial and error..
Like the Human Brain
Data input:
-SCADA data
-Wind speed
-Wind direction Training Input: -2 to 6 month SCADA data
-Temperature -6 month hist. NWP’s
-Stability Operational Input: -Online SCADA data
-Online NWP’s
-Others
Performance: 1-4% better day a head forecasts
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10. Operational Output
Output from the operational Wind Turbine Generation System:
• Wind Generation Forecasts +180 hours in advance
• Granularity: 30 minutes or 1 hour
• Update frequency: 5 minutes - 6 hours
• Up 3 NWP sources as input (IRIE,WRF and Hirlam)
• Percentiles
• RAMP forecasts
• Graphical presented and transmitted via FTP
• Long term forecasts, +32 days in advance
• Short term forecasts (10 minutes granularity)
• Seasonal Forecasts
• Weather parameters
• Manually corrections and warnings
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11. Others
Now-casting, load frequency
control:
• 3 hours persistence forecasts 60-
70% better
• But ConWx system improves this
significantly
• Based on ANN, MOS, dynamic
persistence and others
• 0-3 hours a head in time
• New forecasts every 5 min.
Long term Wind Power Generation
Forecasting:
• 32 days a head in time
• Ensemble runs gives the best
probability forecasts
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12. Summary
You get!
This gives you:
Tailor made power management system
• Better fundament for your
•Online power forecasts 180 hr. ahead in daily decisions
time
• Cost savings
•Mid term forecasting system
• Increased earnings
•Graphical Presentation
• Less C02 emission
•Turbine Administration Site
• Decreased project risks
•Statistic presentation
•Ramp forecasts
•Now-casting system
•Long term forecasts
The State of the Art and Future secured Wind Power Forecasting System
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13. Thank you
13 DONG Energy april 2009