This document provides a summary of the global transition to renewable energy sources over time. It discusses the falling costs of solar and wind power, and how they are now the cheapest new sources of electricity in most developed countries. It notes countries and cities that have set targets of being powered 100% by renewable energy. However, it also discusses the risks faced by oil and gas incumbents, as their business plans and projections do not align with the pace of transition needed to meet climate targets. There is a substantial risk of stranded assets if most players continue with a business as usual approach.

1. A report from the
front lines
as of 31st January 2019
Jeremy Leggett
BP Global ad
campaign, 2000
The Great Global Energy Transition

2. A quick tour of the transition
Life as an insurgent
Life as an incumbent
How the UK fares
What next

3. A quick tour of the transition
Life as an insurgent
Life as an incumbent
How the UK fares
What next

4. Global average cost of PV has fallen c.78% since
2010 to $80/MWh (£61) today …and continues
7th Jan
2016
11th Sep
2018
Source: IRENA, Carbon Tracker adaptation
The PV panel learning curve is 29% (BNEF)
(£267)
(£38)

5. BNEF estimates the 2nd TW will arrive by mid-2023, costing 46% less
than the c. $1.3 tn required for the first. 54% wind, 46% solar.
7th Jan
2016
2nd Aug
2018
World passes 1,000 GW of wind and solar,
on a rising exponential curve

6. 7th Jan
2016
19th Nov
2018
Solar PV & wind are now the cheapest new sources
of generation in every developed country ex. Japan
NOT including subsidies. So BNEF concludes in its analysis of H2 2018.
Benchmark LCOE: $58 for wind (down 6%) $60 for solar PV (down 13%).

7. 7th Jan
2016
1st Dec
2017
Operating coal plants are beginning to be shut
down and replaced by solar ….on economic grounds
First in the USA: Wisconsin utility WEC Energy’s 1,190MW Pleasant
Prairie plant to be replaced by a 350 MW solar farm

8. “Case for coal and gas plants is ‘crumbling’ as wind,
solar and battery costs plunge”
7th Jan
2016
28th Mar
2018
Bloomberg New Energy Finance observes that its latest conclusions
have “chilling” implications for fossil generators.
The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About To Change Forever

9. Nuclear is “ridiculously expensive”, “utterly uncompetitive”, says the
longstanding nuclear advocate: $9bn now to build one reactor.
7th Jan
2016
24th July
2018
Nuclear power can’t compete with solar power:
former IEA boss Nobuaki Tanaka

10. Mark Dooley, Macquarie Capital: “while it makes sense that an
aluminium producer is in the vanguard (Norsk Hydro’s giant wind plans),
there is every reason to expect that all heavy industrial will follow.”
7th Jan
2016
24th July
2018
Heavy industry turns to renewables, including
aluminium smelters, cement plants & “green steel”

11. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Oct
2016
Carmakers embrace an electric future
at Paris motor show
Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche
unveils the Mercedes-Benz EQ

12. China's Chongqing Changan to sell only EVs
from 2025
7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2017

13. BYD’s first electric bus, just seven years ago, was seen as a joke. Now
China’s e-buses are displacing 233,000 barrels of oil a day.
Every five weeks, Chinese cities are adding 9,500
electric buses – the size of the London bus fleet
7th Jan
2016
23rd Apr
2018
Honda’s Asimo

14. This is a total system change
It is very popular
with publics around the world
…and it has an endgame
once widely dismissed
as rootless dreaming

15. 7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2017
82% in 13 countries believe it is important to create
a world fully powered by renewable energy
This is the largest ever such study:
26,000 people surveyed by Edelman for Orsted

16. 2015
7th Jan
2016
6th Nov
2017
First 100% RE global power system model published
using full hourly resolution at global – local scale
Energy Watch Group / Lappeenranta Technology University
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Wind
Oil
Nuclear
Solar
Bioenergy
69%
18%
8%
2%
RE
22%
LCOE
€70 MWh
€52 MWh
20302020 2040 2050
…and it finds that, making choices
purely on economic grounds,
solar dominates the world by 2030

17. Not just popular
but imperative

18. 7th Jan
2016
7th Oct
2018
The IPCC 1.5˚C emissions trajectory entails systems
transitions that are “unprecedented in scale….”
“In 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot, renewables are
projected to supply 70–85% of electricity in 2050 (high confidence).”
Net global CO2 emission pathway
1980 20202000 2040 2060 2080 2100
BilliontonnesofCO2peryear
“…but not necessarily
in terms of speed, and
imply deep emissions
reductions in all
sectors, a wide
portfolio of mitigation
options and a
significant upscaling of
investments in those
options.”
42
Budget: 580 GtC02
for a 50% chance
of limiting global
mean surface air
temperature
to 1.5˚C

19. 7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2018
Carbon budget is all used up - world has no more
capacity for building fossil fuel plants: IEA
“We have no room to build anything that emits CO2 emissions,” Fatih
Birol tells The Guardian. This applies to the 2˚C target, never mind 1.5˚C.
Existing infrastructure would “lock
in” 550 gigatonnes of carbon
dioxide over the next 22 years.

20. 7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
Increase emissions pledges or be on an “immoral”
“suicidal” path, UN chief tells climate summit
António Guterres tells COP24 “to waste this opportunity would
compromise our last best chance to stop runaway climate change. It
would not only be immoral, it would be suicidal.”

21. And so, action right across civil society,
for example….

22. 7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
EU announces it will be the first major economy to
be “climate neutral” - net zero emissions - by 2050
Renewables will be 80% of electricity, 53% final energy demand.
Package will boost economies by 2% of GDP by 2050 and reduce energy
imports by >70%, saving up to €3 trillion a year. Premature air-pollution
deaths will fall by >40%, saving €200bn a year in health costs.
EC’s VP of the
energy union
Maros Sefcovic
Energy
Commissioner
Miguel Arias
Cañete

23. 7th Jan
2016
4th Dec
2018
Spain announces 100% renewables target
and >90% emissions reductions by 2050
The Climate Change and Energy Transition Law, which provides for
retraining of fossil-fuel workers, has yet to be passed by Parliament.
Teresa Ribera
Minister of Energy
and Ecological
Transition

24. 7th Jan
2016
28th Aug
2018
Hawaii passed legislation in 2015 for 100% carbon-free electricity by
2045. Other states including New York are considering the same.
California's legislators set landmark goal for 100%
carbon-free electricity by 2045 …& 60% RE by 2030

25. 7th Jan
2016
27th Feb
2018 43 cities are now 100% renewable powered
The 43 are mostly in Latin America. Of 570 cities reporting to CDP, 101
are 70% or more renewable powered, compared to 42 in 2015.

26. Science Based Targets Initiative launched by
major companies at New York Climate Week
7th Jan
2016
25th Sep
2014
Companies commit to a sector-specific pro-rata emissions pathway
consistent with <2˚C

27. 480 companies from 38 countries now base climate
plans on SBTs: c. one eighth of global market cap
7th Jan
2016
13th Sep
2018
That is nearly USD$10 trillion, comparable to the NASDAQ exchange.
17% of Fortune Global 500. 50 since Trump’s withdrawal from Paris.

28. ….but not yet fast enough

29. They are solar, lighting, data centres and networks, and EVs. Particularly
problematic is that energy efficiency improvements have slowed.
IEA publishes a new monitoring tool showing only 4
of 38 energy sectors are on track with Paris targets
7th Jan
2016
29th May
2018
Future Today
On track: 4
Much more effort needed: 23
Significantly off track: 11

30. www.jeremyleggett.net
more here….

31. A quick tour of the transition
Life as an insurgent
a personal perspective
Life as an incumbent
How the UK fares
What next

32. 20 years old, we began in a 180 MW per year global market, & are now
partnered with e.g. IKEA and Nissan in a c. 100 GW per year market.
Solarcentury: a team of 180 from 14 nations
developing >3 GW of solar on 4 continents
7th Jan
2016
August
2018

33. 3
1975 2015200519951985
50
40
20
30
10
80
60
70
90
100
$USD/W
30
10
20
50
40
60SC installed capacity
doubles >8 times
2000 - 2016
to 738 MW
2018
Solarcentury
1998
Incorporated
26 May 1998
Global
capacity
doubles
8 times
2000 - 2016
Globalmarket180MW
Globalmarketc.100GW
Phase 1 42
Our installations have grown at much the same
pace as the global solar capacity
7th Jan
2016
1998 to
2015

34. Joint project with a community, on a waste tip next to an industrial site,
saving 600,000 tonnes of CO2 in the next 25 years.
Nyrstar, Netherlands, connects to the Dutch grid:
44 MW, 120 football pitches, just 5 months to build
7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018

35. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Aug
2017
IKEA teams up with Solarcentury for solar battery
storage saving up to 70% on UK electricity bills
Storage offering starts at £3,000 incl VAT,
+ solar = c. 6% rate of return, 12 year payback

36. Slough, UK
Solar
thermal for
hot water
Excess
solar for
EV charging
>100% of
electricity
from C21e
SSE staff
housing,
Slough
2010

37. 5% of profits
7th Jan
2016
1998
A simple idea from Day One: a levy on our annual
profits to help the poorest of the poor in Africa
A solar company-with-a-difference uses venture capital to grow, and
creates a non-profit social venture that stimulates solar lighting markets.

38. The first two African
solar lighting markets
catalysed
1.8 million sold
….198.2 million to go
"Few, if any, other businesses have launched
a sustainable brand and enabled thousands of people
to live more sustainably in such a short space of time”
$25
1st light sold
$10
Tanzania
Kenya
Zambia
Malawi
Uganda
-th ---
2016
Solarcentury growth2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xSolarAid’s SunnyMoney: Finding an updraft to
become Africa’s largest solar lighting retailer
2012 to
2015

39. -th ---
2016
Solarcentury growth2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xQuantifying the impact of SolarAid’s SunnyMoney’s
1.9 million solar light sales
2012 to
2016
Reaching
> 10 million
people
£283.4 million
saved by rural
families
1.9 billion
extra study
hours for
children
2 million
tonnes of CO₂
emissions
averted
Safer homes
with
reduced risk
of fire and
burns
4 million
experiencing
better health

40. www.jeremyleggett.net
more here….

41. A taste of the excitement of frontier life….

42. Jerome Pecresse, GE Renewables: “We are inventing things that we did
not even imagine three years ago …renewable baseload is coming fast.”
“Utilities dispel all doubts about renewables' ability
to power planet”: Recharge on Eurelectric summit
7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2018
Francesco Starace,
Enel CEO:
electrifying the
transport sector “is
not only a winning
strategy, it’s a
must.”

43. 7th Jan
2016
7th Nov
2016
Dong Energy profit soars on offshore wind and sale
of gas grid, with all oil and gas to be divested next

44. DONG changes its name to reflect
near-100% transition to renewables
7th Jan
2016
2nd Oct
2017
Named after the Danish electricity pioneer, to reflect its
“profound strategic transformation from black to green energy.”
on track for
a 95%
renewable
footprint
by 2023

45. 7th Jan
2016
23rd Jan
2018
122 companies are now pledged to 100% renewable
electricity. If they were a country….
Their use of renewable electricity in 2017 was up 49% on 2016.
PPAs quadrupled. 25 companies had achieved 100% by end 2016.
Source: RE100 Progress and Insights report
…it would
be the
world’s 14th
biggest
user of
electricity

46. Digitalisation “will increase the profitability of solar
power across every part of the value chain”: SPE
7th Jan
2016
13th Sep
2017
Business models: eg solar to be sold as part of a smart building package.
Grid services and cost savings for manufacturers, developers & installers

47. A quick tour of the transition
Life as an insurgent
Life as an incumbent
focussing on the OGI
How the UK fares
What next

48. 7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2017
More than half of EU’s coal-fired power stations
are lossmaking, and almost all will be by 2030
Analysis of >600 power plants by Carbon Tracker estimates €22bn
of losses could be avoided by phasing out coal by 2030

49. The oil and gas majors hold
similar views of our future….
…. that are very discordant
with the all the above

50. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Feb
2018
Exxon publishes its climate risk assessment: growth
through 2040 while burning almost unfettered
Current reserves of 20 BBOE will need replacing with a further 35 BBOE
….more gas is burned in 2040 than 2016, and oil is about the same.
Energy mix 2016 to 2040
Average annual
growth rate: 0.9%
Growth rates 2016 to 2040

51. Shell publishes a global energy scenario
“meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement”
7th Jan
2016
26th Mar
2018
In 2050, the Sky scenario has oil at 88% of today’s use, gas 93%, and coal
62%: “a rapid energy transition,” Shell says.
Oil
Gas
Coal

52. 7th Jan
2016
20th Feb
2018
BP projects demand for oil & gas in 2040 +/- same
as today even with fast transition to RE and EVs
Oil demand in 2040 higher than today’s even with an ban on petrol
engines by 2040 and a “renewables push”.

53. 7th Jan
2016
28th Jun
2017
The Paris Agreement pledges emissions will fall
enough to keep warming < 2˚C & 1.5˚C if we can
Decarbonisation
by 2040
As a long list of climate experts summarise in Nature, that means total
decarbonization - retreat from burning fossil fuels - by c. 2040.
Source:C.Figueresetal

54. There is substantial risk
in the OGI approach

55. “Fossil fuels will peak in the 2020s as renewables
supply all growth in energy demand”
7th Jan
2016
11th Sep
2018
Carbon Tracker’s latest report warns of “trillions of dollars in stranded
assets” across much of the corporate sector, and in petro states
…and most players proceeding as though they are blind to the risk.
Most likely

56. $25 trillion in past infrastructure investment
is at risk if governments do what they say they will
7th Jan
2016
11th Sep
2018
Companies making up to a quarter of equity indexes & debt markets will
be hit, incl. banking, capital goods, transport and automotive sectors.
• Fossil fuel rents account
for 10% or more of GDP in
12 countries …one of them
Russia
• Entire sectors will struggle
to make this transition.
They can expect price
declines, greater
competition, restructuring,
stranded assets and
market derating.
$bn

57. US shale gas and oil
are central to the plans
of the oil and gas majors

58. ExxonMobil becomes the top driller in the US
Permian shale, expecting growth through 2025
7th Jan
2016
17th Dec
2018
It needs to do this to replace its otherwise falling oil production,
now at a 10 year low, Bloomberg reasons.

59. 7th Jan
2016
7th Jan
2018
Growth of Shell’s oil and gas operations in the next
decade will depend on shale production: CEO
With “a little bit of help from the oil price going up, we now see that we
can significantly accelerate investment into this opportunity.”

60. Beating Shell and Chevron to the 4.5 billion barrels of oil-equivalent
resources, BP CEO Bob Dudley calls it a “transformational acquisition.”
7th Jan
2016
26th July
2018
BP heads into US shale oil and gas by buying BHP's
assets - up for sale nearly a year - for $10.5bn

61. But there are some inconvenient truths
concerning the economics

62. “If $100 was too high for the world, $50 is too low for the
industry. It will have to be somewhere in between.”
John Hess
CEO, Hess Corporation
Despite huge cuts, most oil majors couldn’t even
cover their costs at $50 oil in 2016
7th Jan
2016
2nd April
2017

63. The US shale oil and gas business hasn’t funded
itself at any oil price in any year since the beginning
7th Jan
2016
27th Dec
2017
Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, the 33 companies spent more
money producing shale energy than they made from operations.
33 shale-weighted E&P companies in the 4 main shale oil plays:
Free cash flow
Source: Bloomberg

64. 7th Jan
2016
6th Feb
2018
“The US exploration and production sector has
been a great place to burn cash”
Worse than that, it has been “a Ponzi scheme from Day One”, argues
Steve StAngelo of @SRSroccoReport.

65. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Jan
2019
So how will the drillers service their debts, much less pay them off
and finally make a collective profit?
“Fracking’s Secret Problem—Oil Wells Aren’t
Producing as Much as Forecast”
“Thousands of shale wells drilled in the last five years are pumping less oil and
gas than their owners forecast to investors, raising questions about the
strength and profitability of the fracking boom.”

66. “The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground”
…in shale
7th Jan
2016
1st Sep
2018
Bethany McLean, author of famous book on Enron's collapse:
“the Federal Reserve is responsible for the fracking boom.”

67. And then there is methane leakage

68. Methane leaks from the US oil & gas industry c.60%
higher than government estimates: new study
7th Jan
2016
21st Jun
2018
9-basin estimate incorporating aerial data suggests 2.3% leakage well-
to-power plant. EPA suggested 1.4%. 2.7% makes gas worse than coal.

69. 7th Jan
2016
28th Apr
2016
The U.S. oil and gas boom is having global
atmospheric consequences, NOAA reports
Fully 2% of rising global ethane concentrations (which can only
come from fossil fuels) are from the Bakken Shale.

70. NASA-led team shows oil & gas industry responsible
for largest share of rising methane concentrations
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2017
New measurements reconciling isotopic data suggest fossil fuels
contributed 12–19 Tg CH4 per year of c. 25 Tg CH4 per year since 2006.

71. Meanwhile, speaking of immoral and suicidal….

72. 7th Jan
2016
29th Jan
2019
EDF satellite-data analysis finds 4.4% of all Permian
gas production was flared in 2017 - $322m worth
“This is a complete dismantling of federal methane regulation in the
United States:” Matt Watson of the Environmental Defense Fund.

73. www.jeremyleggett.net
more here….

74. A quick tour of the transition
Life as an insurgent
Life as an incumbent
How the UK fares
What next

75. -th ---
2016
Solarcentury growth2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xUK government cuts domestic, commercial and
solar-farm feed-in tariffs by 65%, 85% and 71%
16th Dec
2015
DECC accepts, in an impact assessment, that this means >18,000 job
losses in the solar industry. To save a few pence on electricity bills.
Energy Secretary Amber Rudd,
who just four days before this
was in Paris, adopting a
climate treaty pledging every
nation on Earth to deep cuts
in carbon emissions

76. 7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
MW per year of installations >250 kW
110-120 MW
300-600 MW
Genuinely subsidy-free UK solar-farm building to start in 2019, with a
2.5 GW 131 project pipeline already in place.
UK solar installations plummet 2016 -2018 …many
thousands of job losses just as global market soars

77. 7th Jan
2016
8th Jan
2019
And they will have to wait months, giving away exported electricity free, until the new
scheme …with HMG estimating a maximum of only 12.5 MW per year as a result.
UK rooftop solar generators will be paid any price
utilities fancy, above zero, with no floor price

78. Why on earth would politicians and civil servants
want to cause such deliberate harm to an
embryonic industry so vital to future
energy and economic security?

79. Two of the reasons expressed to me by trustworthy
sources inside Whitehall and Westminster
1. To ensure there is room for a nuclear renaissance

80. 7th Jan
2016
6th Aug
2016 “Hinkley Pointless”
“Britain should
cancel its nuclear
white elephant
and spend the
billions on making
renewables work”
The Economist had
for many years
been strongly in
favour of nuclear

81. Total cost of Wylfa, to be shared with Hitachi and Japanese government:
£16bn. Price of power: £75-77 MWh …more than solar & wind.
In a remarkable U-turn, UK government agrees to
£5bn public stake in a Welsh nuclear power station
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018

82. 7th Jan
2016
11th Jan
2019
Hitachi will write down the c. £2.1 billion in assets held by its British
nuclear business. The UK’s £5bn offer of bill-payer funds did not work.
Hitachi suspends work on UK’s £16 bn Wylfa plant.
Japanese overseas nuclear projects come to an end.

83. 7th Jan
2016
10th July
2018
This in the UK’s first ever National Infrastructure Assessment: at least
half UK power should be renewable by 2030, & can be at no extra cost.
UK NIC urges HMG to grab the ‘golden opportunity’
to ditch nuclear & go with cheaper solar + wind

84. 66% would be happy to have a large renewables project locally. 74% are
concerned about climate change. 35% support nuclear (22% oppose).
UK Government poll finds a record 85% public
support for renewable energy, 87% for solar
7th Jan
2016
26th Apr
2018
Onshore wind:
not so unpopular after all

85. www.jeremyleggett.net
more here….

86. Two of the reasons given to me by trustworthy
sources inside Whitehall and Westminster
2. To ensure there is room for a shale boom

87. 7th Jan
2016
15th Oct
2018
Fracking allowed once again in UK after 7 year
abeyance following failure of last minute injunction
Energy Minister
Claire Perry:
Those who
oppose fracking
are peddling “wild
myths”

88. 7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
47th tremor at Caudrilla fracking site is biggest yet,
magnitude 1.5, and the first to be felt by residents
This is on a par with the one that led to a 7 year moratorium on fracking
in 2011. Caudrilla says they will restart after the required 18 hour pause.

89. 7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2018 Support for fracking in the UK falls to 15%
So the latest instalment of the BEIS Public Attitudes Tracker finds. Poll
was taken before Cuadrilla restarted fracking, triggering many tremors.

90. 7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Conservative MPs line up to criticise government's
‘downright bonkers’ and ‘ludicrous’ fracking plans
20 ready to rebel, the Independent reports. Lee Rowley, MP for NE
Derbyshire: “fracking will not work in this country.”

91. 7th Jan
2016
28th Oct
2018
Fracking risks turning the country against Tories,
Tory MP Zac Goldsmith warns
“Fracking is an issue that has the potential to turn whole regions against
the government,” for reasons including “the sheer volume of trucks.”

92. Only one new community energy group added to
the UK’s 228 in 2017 as subsidies went to fossil fuels
7th Jan
2016
23rd Jun
2018
So Community Energy England reports in its annual survey. Subsidies to
FF are 30x higher, including >£3bn in 2017 through the capacity market.

93. A quick tour of the transition
Life as an insurgent
Life as an incumbent
How the UK fares
What next
Follow the money

94. 7th Jan
2016
22nd Jan
2019
Carbon Tracker analysts argue that the world is
sitting right on a political tipping point now

95. Investment will be the acid test
for the Carbon Tracker world view

96. A report by CERES sees realistic opportunities in the tens of trillions of
dollars across an array of asset classes in multiple sectors.
The “clean trillion” - the extra c. $1 tn p.a. needed
through 2050 for Paris 2˚C - is “eminently feasible”
7th Jan
2016
10th May
2018
Summary of conclusion in the original 2014 CERES report
on closing the clean energy investment gap

97. Investment in renewables in 2017 was less than it
was in 2011 …it has essentially been flat since 2011
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018
Global investment in renewable power and fuels
Source: REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report excluding hydro >50MW
…at least $310 bn if included

98. 7th Jan
2016
15th Jan
2019
Bloomberg NEF ascribes to a Chinese crackdown on solar subsidies and the falling cost
of wind and solar projects. Installed capacity keeps growing because of decreasing cost
of solar and wind products.
Global clean energy investment drops 8%
to $332bn in 2018, BNEF reports

99. 7th Jan
2016
10th Jan
2019
Mercom’s annual compilation includes venture capital, private equity,
debt financing, and public market financing.
Total global corporate funding into solar sector falls
24% in 2018: $9.7 bn, down from $12.8 bn in 2017

100. Let us put these sums into perspective
with just one example of the largesse currently
extended to the oil and gas industry

101. 7th Jan
2016
25th Jan
2019
British taxpayers face £24bn bill for tax relief to oil
& gas firms for removal of North Sea infrastructure
That is fully 8% of all UK North Sea tax income. The National Audit Office
warns that the figure will rise if companies collapse leaving government
with the bill ….as has already happened with some operators.
Total tax to government since
1960s: £300 bn.
The industry has been a net
subtractor from the government
purse since 2016.

102. What will tip the balance, and divert the extra
hundreds of billions that need to flow
to green energy not brown energy?
Could it be ethical and spiritual considerations?

103. “Civilisation requires energy, but energy use must not destroy
civilisation,” the Pope tells heads of BP, ExxonMobil and others.
Pope Francis invites oil bosses to the Vatican and
tells them that they must switch to clean energy
7th Jan
2016
9th Jun
2018
Valdis Dombrovskis, EC VP:
“time is running out”

104. Probably not….

105. 7th Jan
2016
7th Jan
2019
The company must now hand over decades of records to the
Massachusetts Attorney General’s office.
Supreme Court rejects Exxon Mobil effort to stop
access to documents for climate fraud investigation

106. Could it be the divestment movement
and / or rising tide of “rational engagement”
in the financial services industry?

107. After 6 years of the divestment campaign,
1,000 divestments now sum almost to $8 trillion
7th Jan
2016
16th Dec
2018
Unity College, Maine, was the first, in 2012. The latest are major French
and Australian pension funds. Widespread action by mainstream FIs
means that divestment is now a clear risk to fossil fuel companies.

108. “Oil must face its future as a declining industry”:
Legal & General Investment Management in the FT
7th Jan
2016
13th Jun
2018
The CIO and a commodities specialist suggest that rather than transition
to renewables, oil companies stop investing and return cash.

109. Maybe, but….

110. 7th Jan
2016
26th Jan
2019
The best performing investment during the 35 years
of the FTSE 100? British American Tobacco
Next best performing manufacturer is BAE Systems. “Making stuff that
can kill people seems, sadly, to be what Britain’s rather good at.”
£100 of BAT shares in
1984 now worth
£33k, if dividends
were reinvested.
Next closest:
Unilever, £100 to
£13k. Worst of the
100: RBS, £100 to
£100.

111. 7th Jan
2016
9th Dec
2018
BlackRock, Vanguard, Axa and other investors have
ramped up coal holdings since the Paris agreement
So InfluenceMap finds. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager
with $6.4tn in assets, has the largest absolute holdings in thermal coal.

112. “Relatively few” companies are disclosing climate
risk, esp. in financial filings, as TCFD recommends
7th Jan
2016
26th Sep
2018
513 organisations now support the TCFD recommendations, 457 with
market cap of $7.9 trillion. But few are yet acting on financial risk.

113. And so….

114. “The depressing reality about climate change is that
we could solve the problem, at manageable cost,
but are failing to do so”: FT Editorial Board
7th Jan
2016
26th Dec
2018
“The self-deception comes from those who accept the reality, but only pretend to
solve it. …The tragedy is that while the scientists and technologists have won the
argument, the climate sceptics and deniers have effectively won the policy debate.”
“This failure is due to
a mixture of blindness
and self-deception.
The blindness comes
from those, such as
US president Donald
Trump, who deny the
reality of climate
change.”
Howblind do you
have to be?

115. “Investment in low-carbon energy remains poor
for oil majors”
7th Jan
2016
27th Dec
2018
Harry Brekelmans of Shell tells the FT that a key frustration for energy companies such
as Shell is that many see only one pathway for decarbonisation — the elimination of
fossil fuels — rather than more “realistic” options.
Disclosed low carbon investment as a
proportion of total capital spend,
2010 to Q3 2018

116. 7th Jan
2016
30th Dec
2018
Browne, the former chair of Cuadrilla and the current chair of an oil and gas
investment vehicle owned by Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman, cites CCS as the top
action needed, and does not mention clean-energy investment.
“The energy industry must engage with climate
change” - John Browne op-ed in the FT

117. 7th Jan
2016
28th Jan
2019
BP’s 1st global ad campaign since Deepwater
Horizon: critics allege deception, hypocrisy & worse
“We’re producing cleaner burning natural gas, and solar and wind…”
“at BP, we see possibilities everywhere. So we can all keep advancing.”
“Natural gas burns 50% cleaner than coal in power generation”

118. Main conclusion:
The dam will break….
….but currently it is difficult to see
what will trigger it, and when
One to watch in 2019:
Short sellers targeting the weakest
oil and gas business models

119. 7th Jan
2016
5th Dec
2018
US shale oil production keeps rising – but even at
$70 oil still the drillers make no money
IEEFA & Sightline report: 32 publicly traded fracking-focused companies
collectively spent nearly $1 billion more on operations during Q3 than
they received in sales of oil and gas. Their losing streak is now 9 years.