History and future of the global energy transition in pictures and charts, 2016 - 2017

History and future of the global energy
transition in pictures and charts: 2016 -2017
Including source urls as notes
Jeremy
Leggett

…a saga spanning 2013-2017
…with multiple storylines
…across 3 metanarratives
As told in…
Update edition published 15.2.18.

Global society awakening
to a threat to civilisation
….and responding in critical mass
META-NARRATIVE 1

An insurgency disrupting
an incumbency
….faster than most players appreciate
META-NARRATIVE 2

An incumbency facing
multiple threats
…increasingly existential
META-NARRATIVE 3

Environmental campaigning, 1990s
Social entrepreneurship, 2000s-2010s
Oil research & exploration, 1980s
My perspective on the drama
derives from
…and writing along the way

…beginning with governments
acting on a groundswell of
support for action on climate
in every sector of civil society

….and up to 70% cuts by 2050, 34 years from now
When the G7 agreed to push for decarbonisation in
the Paris Agreement, few believed it would happen
8th Jun
2015

Unexpected result: a clear signal in the Paris
Agreement - decarbonisation, as soon as possible
12th Dec
2015

7th Jan
2016
22nd Apr
2016
175 nations sign the Paris Agreement at the UN on
Earth Day: more than any other treaty in history

7th Jan
2016
4th Nov
2016
The Paris Agreement comes into force

7th Jan
2016
9th Nov
2016
Donald Trump wins the US presidency

7th Jan
2016
17th Nov
2016
“Momentum is irreversible – it is being driven not only by governments,
but by science, business and global action of all types at all levels”
195 nations issue Marrakech Action Proclamation
deeming Paris commitments an “urgent duty”

7th Jan
2016
18th Nov
2016
“Marrakesh sends out strong signal on
climate change”
China: “a global trend that is irreversible”. No nation disagrees, incl.
Saudi Arabia. Russia: we will stick with the treaty “even if others don’t”

7th Jan
2016
17th Jan
2017
"China can take lead, climate envoy says"
Source: Oxfam report for Davos
KSA’s sole solar
plant: a 10 MW
Aramco car park

7th Jan
2016
1st June
2017
Trump announces US will quit Paris agreement
“I was elected
to represent
the citizens of
Pittsburgh,
not Paris”

7th Jan
2016
1st June
2017
Pittsburgh condemns Trump and commits to
100% renewable energy by 2035
Mayor Bill Peduto:
“His misguided decision to withdraw from Paris
does not reflect the values of our city”

7th Jan
2016
2nd June
2017
Michael Bloomberg: US cities, states and businesses
will still meet Paris targets
“The American
government may
have pulled out of
the agreement,
but the American
people remain
committed to it –
and we will meet
our targets”

7th Jan
2016
5th June
2017
1,000+ cities, states & businesses, representing a
third of US GDP, have joined “We Are Still In”

7th Jan
2016
26th Dec
2016
“States Will Lead on Climate Change in
the Trump Era”
• Worst air pollution this year
• 24 cities on red alert
• Schools shut and flights grounded
US decoupling: change in real GDP
and CO2 emissions since 2000 GDP
Energy CO2 emissions
33 states and the District of Columbia have cut carbon emissions
while expanding their economies

7th Jan
2016
29th Dec
2016
Attempt to kill US climate plans and we will
see you in court, 15 states warn Trump
Including New York, California, Virginia, Vermont and New Mexico
Clinton
majorities
Trump
majorities

California's Gov. Brown signs toughest US climate
law: 40% GHG cuts (from 1990 levels) by 2030
7th Jan
2016
8th Sep
2016

7th Jan
2016
15th June
2017
Sweden passes world’s toughest climate law
to become carbon neutral by 2045
Passed 245 to 41 with support
from 8 of 9 parties
Deputy PM
Isabella Lovin

China kicks off world's largest carbon trading market
in major bid to abate climate change and clean air
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2017
Initially to cover the power generation sector – responsible for
c. half national emissions from fossil fuels

7th Jan
2016
15th Oct
2016
Multilateral action encouraged: global climate deal
reached to limit use of hydrofluorocarbons

7th Jan
2016
28th Jun
2017
Mayors of 7,400 cities vow to meet Obama's
climate commitments
First meeting of global covenant of mayors, co-chaired by
Michael Bloomberg and Maroš Šefčovič

7th Jan
2016
26th Jun
2017
250 US mayors endorse switch to
100% renewable energy by 2035
Resolution at the US Conference of Mayors, a
bipartisan gathering in Miami Beach

7th Jan
2016
8th Jul
2017
USA isolated on climate change
in G20 communique
19 nations reaffirm that the Paris Agreement is “irreversible”

7th Jan
2016
6th Nov
2017
COP23 begins, intent on making progress with the
ratchet mechanism of the Paris Agreement
Key timelines are the deadline for completing a rulebook (2018) &
enhanced national emissions ambitions consistent with 1.5 & 2˚C (2020)

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2017
60 world leaders return to Paris for a climate
summit on 2nd anniversary of Paris Agreement
“We are here not for words but for deeds because we are facing an
ongoing emergency”: President Macron

This saga isn’t “just” about climate change

Air pollution up 8% in last 5 years, WHO reports:
now single biggest killer in world, 3m deaths a year
7th Jan
2016
12th May
2016

Global pollution kills 9 million a year
and threatens “survival of human societies”
7th Jan
2016
20th Oct
2017
Commission on Pollution and Health, published in the Lancet
…most comprehensive medical study to date
• Triple AIDS, malaria and TB combined
• Almost certainly a significant underestimate
• Welfare losses: e $4.6 trillion/year, 6% of GDP
• Air pollution is the single biggest cause of death

7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2016
“China’s ‘airpocalypse’ hits half a billion people”
In worst air pollution this year, 24 cities on red alert
Schools shut and flights grounded

China to cut 1.8m jobs in coal and steel sectors,
spend £10bn on worker relocation
29th Feb
2016

7th Jan
2016
18th Jan
2017
Chinese government directive cancels 120 GW of
coal: 103 plants including dozens under construction

7th Jan
2016
6th Nov
2016
Indian government declares Delhi air pollution
an emergency
Concentrations of harmful particles so high they cannot
be measured by most air quality instruments

China to ban production of petrol and diesel cars
“in the near future”, Vice Minister for Industry says
7th Jan
2016
11th Sep
2017

India aims to become 100% e-vehicle nation by
2030: Power Minister Piyush Goyal
25th Mar
2016
“Can we actually give electric cars for free and people can pay for that
out of the savings on the petroleum products...”

7th Jan
2016
6th Jul
2017
France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars
by 2040
Emmanual Macron, President Nicolas Hulot, Ecology Minister

7th Jan
2016
2nd Dec
2016
Paris, Mexico City, Madrid and Athens vow at
C40 summit to ban diesel vehicles by 2025
David Koch
Paris smog

7th Jan
2016
23rd June
2016
Oslo votes to slash emissions 95% by 2030,
and ban cars in city centre by 2019 en route

7th Jan
2016
16th Jan
2017
Diesel cars banned from Oslo city centre
until air pollution clears

The corporate world
plays a vital role

7th Jan
2016
12th Jul
2017
Corporations pledging 100% renewable power
now top 100
RE 100 club now creating around 146 terawatt-hours (TWh) in demand
for RE annually…about as much as it takes to power Poland

7th Jan
2016
4th Nov
2016
Walmart becomes first retailer, 26th company, to
have its Science Based Targets approved
The SBTs are greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets that are in line
with what climate science says is necessary to keep below 2˚C

7th Jan
2016
19th Sep
2016
600 multinational companies factor Paris
Agreement into business plans
• Over the next
15 years, $90 trillion will
be invested globally in
infrastructure where
emissions are currently
concentrated
• The national climate
plans under the Paris
Agreement represent at
least a $13.5 trillion
market for the energy
sector alone
Source: CDP

7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2016
More than 360 US businesses urge Trump not to back
out of Paris Agreement
DuPont, Hewlett Packard, Kellogg, Mars, Nike, Starbucks +: “failure to
build a low-carbon economy puts American prosperity at risk”

7th Jan
2016
11th Jan
2017
>600 US companies and financial institutions have
now signed open letter to Trump supporting Paris
Original sent by 360 in November 2016, after the election

Surge in corporate planning for cost of carbon:
607 big companies now use an internal price
7th Jan
2016
12th Oct
2017

2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xFrom targets to core business: Ikea unveils ambition
to be number-one global residential solar retailer
31st Mar
2016

Regulators
beginning to
see risk, and
so to regulate

30th Sep
2015
4th Dec
2015
Launch of G20 Financial Stability Board’s
Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures
Mark Carney, FSB Chairman Michael Bloomberg, TCFD Chairman

7th Jan
2016
14th Dec
2016
G20 FSB taskforce reports: urges climate-change
effect disclosure, pay tied to anti-climate action, +
The TCFD comprises companies with market capitalisation of $1.5tn and
financial institutions responsible for assets of $20tn

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2017
237 companies with market cap >$6.3 trillion now
support the TCFD, incl. 150 FIs managing $81.7 tn
A doubling in 6 months since publication of TCFD report …includes 20 of
30 systemically important banks, 8 of 10 largest asset managers

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2017
Funds managing $26 tn pledge to pressure worst
100 companies on emissions, = 2/3rds global total
225 institutions incl. HSBC Global Asset Management, Calpers, Axa ++,
pressing for disclosure and more from Exxon, Coal India, Glencore ++

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2017
ExxonMobil bows to shareholder pressure on
climate: will disclose impact of Paris on business
At the company AGMs, the board had long opposed such disclosure
despite resolutions supported by some of the biggest pension funds
New President Darren Woods, replacing Rex Tillerson 14 December

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2016
Fossil fuel divestment doubles to $5tn in a year, and
80% of total funds are now commercial / pension

Swedish pension fund AP4 makes biggest
divestment move of any institution to date
7th Jan
2016
18th July
2016
The $35bn fund will decarbonise its $14.7bn global equity portfolio by
2020 & invest $3.2bn in low carbon benchmarks

BNP Paribas drops all business with a wide range
of oil and gas companies and projects
7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2017
All companies with focus on shale oil & gas, plus tar sands
- including LNG terminals and pipelines - and Arctic projects

7th Jan
2016
1st Feb
2017
Deutsche Bank stops funding coal
in order to meet Paris climate pledge

7th Jan
2016
7th Nov
2016
HSBC’s UK pension scheme invests £1.85bn in fund
with no coal, oil and gas down, low carbon up
“This is a powerful message that we are sending to companies that they
need to step up to meet the challenges”: Meryam Omi, LGIM

7th Jan
2016
11th Feb
2017
Nordea bans investment in
Dakota Access oil pipeline

Catholic church makes record faith-based
divestment from fossil fuels
7th Jan
2016
3rd Oct
2017
40 institutions, 4 times bigger than previous record
…on anniversary of death of St Francis of Assissi

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2017
Insurance giant Axa takes divestment to new level:
dumps tar sands companies and pipeline insurance
Also quadruples its divestment from coal businesses and increases its
green investments fivefold, to €12 bn, by 2020
Thomas Buberi, CEO

The case for divestment
increasingly marries the
economic case with the
ethical one
e.g….

Third biggest US pension fund, NY State's, could
have made $5.3bn in last 3 years by divesting
2nd Mar
2016

7th Jan
2016
18th Sep
2017
A sub 2˚C pathway would save US power
consumers $10bn a year by 2021
Proxy founders and PR agency drafting
uncovered by a Bloomberg investigation
New coal capacity is not remotely competitive, and in the next few years
operating costs in almost all coal plants will be more than the levelized
cost of new gas and renewables

7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2017
Norwegian Central Bank, manager of the oil fund,
tells government it should divest from oil and gas
Biggest holding end 2016:
$5.3 bn in Shell

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2017
World Bank announces it will end financial support
for oil and gas exploration from 2019
At present, 1-2% of the Bank’s $280bn per year portfolio goes to oil and
gas projects. 28% of its lending will go to climate action by 2020

Then there is the
legal system

7th Jan
2016
9th Apr
2016
Judge in Oregon rules against US government and
fossil-fuel industry in landmark climate case
21 aged 8-19 sued the federal government for “violating their
constitutional rights to life, liberty and property, and their right to
essential public trust resources, by permitting, encouraging and
otherwise enabling continued exploitation, production and
combustion of fossil fuels.”

Portuguese children to sue 45 countries in European
Court of HR over wildfires, and crowdfund costs
7th Jan
2016
25th Sep
2017
First climate case against multiple governments.
Failure to tackle climate change “threatens their right to life”.
Countries must commit to keeping majority of fossil fuels in ground.

“This event is unprecedented & all impacts are
unknown & beyond anything experienced”: NWS
7th Jan
2016
27th Aug
2017
Hurricane Harvey:
forecast rainfall
Houston city officials: “Head to your
roofs, not your attics”

Hurricane Harvey's aftermath could see pioneering
climate lawsuits as attribution science tightens
7th Jan
2016
5th Sep
2017

“Big Oil must pay for climate change. Now we can
calculate how much”: leading climate scientists
7th Jan
2016
7th Sep
2017
“Nearly 30% of the rise in global sea level between 1880 and 2010
resulted from emissions traced to the 90 largest carbon producers”
Myles Allen, Oxford University, et al

San Francisco and Oakland sue five oil companies
for damages from rising seas
7th Jan
2016
21st Sep
2017
Public nuisance cases requiring payment for sea walls etc
Against BP, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil

Lawyer who helped extract $200 bn from
Big Tobacco is now taking on Big Oil
7th Jan
2016
22nd Dec
2017
Steve Berman represents Oakland and San Francisco in a lawsuit vs
Exxon, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and BP for causing sea-level rise

7th Jan
2016
10th Jul
2017
Just 100 companies are responsible for 71%
of greenhouse gases since 1988
Source: Carbon Disclosure Project

7th Jan
2016
18th Sep
2015
A new dimension in corporate lawsuits
…all about cheating on emissions limitations

VW CEO told about emissions cheating in May 2014
Company admitted it to EPA September 2015
2nd Mar
2016

7th Jan
2016
9th Sep
2016
Pa
First criminal charge in VW dieselgate scandal
as veteran engineer pleads guilty to fraud
James Liang helped develop the “defeat software” in 2006
….Major role in cover-up ….Now co-operating with authorities

7th Jan
2016
10th Jan
2017
VW admits guilt and pays $4.3bn penalty /
6 present and past executives charged with fraud
US Attorney General Loretta Lynch

7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2017
Senior VW exec pleads guilty to role in dieselgate
fraud, but is still jailed for 7 years
Oliver Schmidt

7th Jan
2016
23rd Aug
2017
Samsung heir found guilty of corruption and
sentenced to five years in prison
“It can be seen as the shattering of the ‘too-big-to-jail’ trend.”
Park Sangin, professor of economics, Seoul National University

….as already
investigated
1989 – 1997
in this book
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
5th Nov
2015
xNew York Attorney General investigates ExxonMobil
for securities fraud over climate change

LA Times investigation: e.g. Shell’s Troll gas platform, raised an extra 2
metres; Mobil factored in storms and SLR off Nova Scotia; etc
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
23rd Dec
2015
xOil majors braced for global warming in their
engineering even as they fought climate regulations

2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
15th Jan
2016
xCalifornia Attorney General to investigate whether
ExxonMobil lied about climate-change risks
Kamala Harris
Rex
Tillerson

2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
23rd Mar
2016
xRockefeller Family Fund divests from ExxonMobil
ruing “morally reprehensible” conduct
John D. Rockeller
founder of Standard Oil
parent of ExxonMobil

Global society is waking up to a new imperative: to cut
the current c. 50 billion tonnes a year
of carbon dioxide emissions and their equivalent in
other greenhouse gases
to zero, within a few decades
Metanarrative 1
in tonnes

7th Jan
2016
28th Jun
2017
“Three years to safeguard our climate”:
Christiana Figueres + a host of climate experts

2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xEmissions flat for second year despite growth
“surge in renewables spurs change”
15th Mar
2016

CO2 emissions from energy stay flat for third year in
row – despite global economy growing
7th Jan
2016
27th Mar
2017

Fossil fuel burning set to rise in 2017 after
3 flat years, scientists warn
7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2017

7th Jan
2016
2nd Nov
2017
Emissions have already ‘peaked’ in 49 countries,
representing 36% of current global emissions

7th Jan
2016
30th Oct
2017
Global emissions are decoupling from
GDP growth in recent years

But there is a
long way to
go…
President Obama’s
handwritten note to his
climate negotiating
team, on the first page
of the Paris Agreement,
December 2015

1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
250
200
150
100
50
0
Pricein$/m(mbtu)
4th April
2014
Fossil fuel indices
Solar PV
Solar PV: cost driving a spectacular expansion
…welcome to the Terrordome
7th Jan
2016
4th Apr
2014
Last 40 years
Source:AllianceBernstein

7th Jan
2016
16th Dec
2016
“World Energy Hits a Turning Point”
Michael Bloomberg and Mark Carney
Solar
Wind
Average cost of new wind and solar in 58 emerging-
market economies, including China, India, and Brazil
“Solar power, for the first time, is becoming
the cheapest form of new electricity”

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
7th Jan
2016
5th Jan
2017
“Solar Could Become the Cheapest
Power on Earth”
In recent auctions solar at <$30 MWh
Is already < half average price of coal
Average solar price may be < coal by 2025
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
2039
CCGTSolar Wind Coal
$MWh

Saudi Arabia solar auction breaks record:
lowest ever bid price of $17.9 MWh
7th Jan
2016
3rd Oct
2017
First plant in the $50bn national programme
Joint bid by Masdar and EDF (NB provisional winner at this stage)

7th Jan
2016
1st Dec
2017
US coal-fired power plant to be shut down
and replaced by solar
Wisconsin utility WEC Energy’s 1,190MW Pleasant Prairie
plant to be replaced by a 350 MW solar farm

-th ---
2016 Solar PV global capacity is growing exponentially
7th Jan
2016
7th Jun
2017
REN21 report: 2017
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
75 GW = 31,000 solar panels installed every hour

-th ---
2016
China dominates solar expansion, but there are
significant emerging markets on all continents
7th Jan
2016
7th Jun
2017
REN21 report: 2017
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Rest of world
Italy
USA
Germany
China
Japan
=375 TWh / yr
24 countries
have > 1 GW

Solar was the biggest single sector for new
global power capacity additions in 2016
7th Jan
2016
24th Mar
2017
Source: UNEP / BNEF
Solar
75
Wind
54
Coal
54
Gas
38
Large hydro
15
Nuclear
10
GW
Net new
power after
retirements
$114 bn of
investment:
biggest sector
in £241 bn total
renewables
investment

IEA hopeless view of future solar PV additions:
historic data versus World Energy Outlook
7th Jan
2016
4th Oct
2017
40 institutions, 4 times bigger than previous record
…on anniversary of death of St Francis of Assissi
2000 2006 2010 2016 2020 2030
GW per year

Dong Energy wins offshore wind auction
with lowest ever price: €72.70 ($80.60) MWh
7th Jan
2016
5th July
2016

7th Jan
2016
13th April
2017
Offshore wind farms offer subsidy-free power
for the first time
Bloomberg NEF New Energy Outlook 2016
Dong Energy among group winning German auction at a record-low
weighted average of 4.40 euros ($4.67) a megawatt hour, from 2025

7th Jan
2016
25th Oct
2016
Renewables overtake coal as world’s largest source
of power capacity: 500,000 solar panels a day now
IEA: 153 GW capacity added in 2015. Total 23% of electricity (coal 39%)
2015-2021 projections up 13% on 2014’s

7th Jan
2016
7th Sep
2016
All China’s new power demand in 2015
met with wind and solar
Consumption up 0.5% (by 27 TWh, in national total of 5,500 TWh)
Wind and solar up 48 TWh (2x Ireland’s entire national demand)

7th Jan
2016
9th Feb
2017
Almost 90% of new power in Europe
came from renewables in 2016
Lisbon: 4 straight days of renewable-only power in 2016

India to electrify every willing home with solar,
storage and LEDs …. by December 2018
7th Jan
2016
26th Sep
2017
$2.5 billion ‘Saubhagya Yojna’ scheme: rural and urban

7th Jan
2016
1st Oct
2016
“The solar revolution is coming… fossil fuels
could be facing extinction”

US workers in solar and wind in 2016: 475,000
….more than coal and gas
7th Jan
2016
23rd Apr
2017
Coal
Gas
WindSolar
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,0000
Source: US Department of Energy

7th Jan
2016
7th Feb
2017
73% of Trump voters support more solar and wind,
& 49% believe climate change is happening

7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2017
82% in 13 countries believe it is important to create
a world fully powered by renewable energy
Largest ever such study: 26,000 people
surveyed by Edelman for Orsted

2015
7th Jan
2016
6th Nov
2017
First 100% RE global power system model published
using full hourly resolution at global – local scale
Energy Watch Group / Lappeenranta Technology University
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Wind
Oil
Nuclear
Solar
Bioenergy
69%
18%
8%
2%
RE
22%
LCOE
€70 MWh
€52 MWh
20302020 2040 2050

Global investment in electricity exceeds fossil fuel
investment for the first time in 2016. But…
7th Jan
2016
11th Jul
2017
Total $1.7 trillion, 12% down on 2015, 2.2% of global GDP
Renewables + energy efficiency = $518 bn vs fossil fuels c$700 bn
Source: IEA Energy Investment 2017
$718 bn c.$700 bn
$287bn
$231bn
$650bn

Global investment in renewables falls 23% in 2016
But…
7th Jan
2016
24th Mar
2017
x
Source: UNEP / BNEF

Record new renewables capacity added
at record low cost
7th Jan
2016
24th Mar
2017
Renewable capacity
change as % of
global capacity
change
Renewable power
as % of global
power capacity
Renewable power
as % of global
power generation
Source: UNEP / BNEF
Renewable capacity > FF
& nuclear 2 years running

7th Jan
2016
5th Dec
2017
Lithium-ion battery prices down to an average $209
/ kWh …80% down on 2010
$100 is widely viewed as the tipping point for EVs
…and on current trends is reached by 2025

7th Jan
2016
21st Nov
2017
BNEF predicts energy storage set to double 6 times
worldwide by 2030, to 125 GW / 305 GWh
Proxy founders and PR agency drafting
uncovered by a Bloomberg investigation
Source:BloombergNEF

7th Jan
2016
6th Jul
2017
EVs will be cheaper than conventional cars
in most countries by 2020-2025
54% of new vehicles & 33% of all light vehicles on roads by 2040
….Bloomberg New Energy Finance hikes its annual prediction again

7th Jan
2016
6th Nov
2017
Global EV sales will be in line with 2˚C scenario to
2020 if manufacturers produce numbers they say
20 countries & cities have announced shifts from petrol & diesel to EVs

7th Jan
2016
30th Apr
2015 Launch of Tesla Energy
The Powerwall 1: 7 kWh at $3,000 and 10kWh at $3,500
….plus larger Powerpacks for industrial use

7th Jan
2016
21st June
2016
Tesla offers to buy SolarCity …to make the
first renewable / storage / EV conglomerate
“The world does not lack for automotive companies. The world lacks for
sustainable energy companies.”

7th Jan
2016
30th July
2016 Opening of Tesla’s gigafactory

“‘Tesla Solar’ Wants to Be the Apple Store
for Electricity”
7th Jan
2016
29th June
2016

Master Plan, Part Deux:
Elon Musk’s vision
7th Jan
2016
20th July
2016
1. Make stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage.
2. Expand electric vehicle product line to address all major segments.
3. Develop self-driving 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning.
4. Enable cars to make money for owners when they aren't using them.

7th Jan
2016
17th Nov
2016
Tesla shareholders vote $2.6bn SolarCity deal
through by 85%, despite Wall Street scepticism

7th Jan
2016
28th Oct
2016
Tesla unveils its new line of camouflaged
solar rooftiles, plus the Powerwall 2
4 tile types,
using microlouvres
$5,500 for 14kWh
of storage

7th Jan
2016
4th Jan
2017
Tesla begins mass production of battery cells
at (the first stage of) its Gigafactory
35 GWh as of next year …Will be largest building in the world when
finished. The next one will be in Europe.

7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2017
Tesla unveils an all-electric truck, with 500 mile
range, first production in 2019

7th Jan
2016
1st Dec
2017
Tesla switches on world’s biggest
lithium-ion battery
c.129 MW power at the 350 MW Hornsdale wind farm
in South Australia …enough for 30,000 homes for an hour

7th Jan
2016
2nd Oct
2016
Carmakers embrace an electric future
at Paris motor show
Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche
unveils the Mercedes-Benz EQ

7th Jan
2016
5th Jul
2017
First major carmaker calls time on ICE-only cars:
Volvo to use electric motors in all cars from 2019
x
Jean Claude Van Damme in a famous Volvo ad

China's Chongqing Changan to sell only EVs
from 2025
7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2017

BYD founder lobbies Beijing for early ban
of internal combustion engine
7th Jan
2016
21st Sep
2017
Wang Chianfu: “China will run out of oil soon” …all buses will have to be
electric by 2020, all heavy trucks by 2025, all cars by 2030

“Race to build first electric passenger aircraft
takes to skies”
7th Jan
2016
5th Oct
2017
Boeing-backed startup Zunum plans 10-12 seater
hybrid commercial plane by 2022, 50-100 seater by 2030

Rolls-Royce joins Airbus and Siemens to form
consortium aiming at hybrid planes flying by 2020
7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2017
Airbus: “We decided we needed to be more ambitious because the
world and technology is moving so fast.” The aim is a 100 seater.

EasyJet says it could be flying electric planes
within a decade on flights under 2 hours
7th Jan
2016
27th Sep
2017
Anesco’s 10 MW with 6 MW batteries at Clayhill

7th Jan
2016
10th June
2016
Apple Energy set up, and applies to FERC to supply
excess solar electricity from its installations
Apple CEO Tim Cook at Climate Week, 2014

“Google Cuts Its Giant Electricity Bill With
DeepMind-Powered AI”
7th Jan
2016
19th July
2016
Servers = c. 2%
of global greenhouse
gas emissions A Google data centre
Savings several %
= $100s millions

7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2016
An energy first as UK successfully transmits
data via national electricity grid

7th Jan
2016
12th Mar
2017
National Grid and Google: investigating DeepMind
AI in balancing supply and demand on the UK grid

7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2016
China has 317 million smart meters in operation,
covering 100% of urban areas and 70% of rural areas
Presentation by Zhang Gang, Counsellor of the State Council of China

7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2016
….including smart co-ordination spanning all aspects
of grids, at all scales, involving 230 million users

7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2016
….including China’s first expressway fast-charging
EV network between Beijing and Shanghai

7th Jan
2016
21st Nov
2016
Siemens & LO3 Energy use blockchain to allow
neighbours to trade solar via microgrid in Brooklyn

Digitalisation “will increase the profitability of solar
power across every part of the value chain”: SPE
7th Jan
2016
13th Sep
2017
$800bn of additional
value for renewables
by 2030
Business models: eg solar to be sold as part of a smart building package.
Grid services and cost savings for manufacturers, developers & installers

Crown Prince Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi:
“I promise you, my brothers and sisters, we will be celebrating.”
7th Jan
2016
16th Jan
2016
“In 50 years, when we ship off the last barrel
of petrol, we will not be sad”

“Saudi Arabia Plans $2 trillion
Megafund for Post-Oil Era”
7th Jan
2016
1st Apr
2016
Mohammed Bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince: “Within 20 years,
we will be an economy or state that doesn’t depend mainly on oil.”

7th Jan
2016
25th Apr
2016
“Saudi Arabia pledges economic overhaul to end
‘addiction to oil’”
Mohammed Bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince:
“We have an addiction to oil . . . this is dangerous.”

4th April
2014
By 2030, all new energy will be solar and wind,
all new cars EVs, autonomous ones: Tony Seba
7th Jan
2016
20th May
2014
“Resistance
is futile”

Google futurist Ray Kurzweil argues that analysts
tend to struggle with exponential effects
7th Jan
2016
30 Mar
2016
Solar doubles every c.2 years
30
10
20
50
40
(GW)
60
…to 2% of global energy supply
8 doublings 2000 – 2016…
6 more doublings to 2028…
…to >100% of 2016 global energy
c. 13,600 mtoe and >150,000 TWh
Ray Kurzweil
Co-founder, Singularity University

19131900
Spot the car Spot the horse
Total system change:
it has happened before

Coal production has fallen steeply since 2011
and coal-fired electricity has fallen since 2013
7th Jan
2016
16th Oct
2017

Coal capacity versus retirements:
the gap has closed rapidly since 2015
7th Jan
2016
16th Oct
2017

1st global survey of coal phase-out plans shows exit
of >¼ of 1,675 companies since 2010 (448)
7th Jan
2016
18th Oct
2017
And nearly 70% (1,141) of the companies currently
have no active plans for new power capacity
An abandoned coal plant in Illinois

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0%
-20
-40
-60
-80
Source:ThomsonReuters
Walter EnergyAlpha Natural
Peabody Energy
Peabody Energy, no. 1 US coal miner, joins 49 others
to have gone bankrupt since 2012
13th Apr
2016
In 2011 the top 4 US coal companies were worth $32 billion

7th Jan
2016
19th Jul
2017
Coal has no future, says US railroad boss:
“fossil fuels are dead”
Hunter Harrison, CEO of CSX, says he will be financing
not a single new locomotive to haul coal.

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2016
IEA: China's new coal plants make
“no economic sense”
Share in 2000 Share in 2015
Source: IEA

7th Jan
2016
13th Dec
2016
India does not need more coal-based capacity
addition till 2022: Central Electricity Authority

7th Jan
2016
10th Nov
2017
One of the world's biggest miners is on the verge of
going coal-free as Rio Tinto puts last assets on sale

World's biggest coal export port announces
shift away from coal
7th Jan
2016
17th Dec
2017
Newcastle Ports Board: “Clearly the long-term outlook for coal is a
threat to the port and Hunter region, but it is also a huge opportunity”

7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2017
More than half of EU’s coal-fired power stations
are lossmaking, and almost all will be by 2030
Analysis of >600 power plants by Carbon Tracker estimates €22bn
of losses could be avoided by phasing out coal by 2030

First major utility business model U turn:
E.On to pursue renewables and energy services
7th Jan
2016
1st Dec
2014

7th Jan
2016
10th Oct
2016
Wind and solar power alone can meet the
energy needs of a whole region: E.ON
Smart Region Pellworm

7th Jan
2016
5th Dec
2017
All major EU power utilities commit to carbon-
neutral power ‘well before’ 2050
Eurelectric secretary-general Kristian Ruby

7th Jan
2016
11th Nov
2017
“GE and Siemens: power pioneers flying too far
from the sun”
2010: Analysts expect 300 large gas turbines to be sold each year
2017: 122 sold
Joe Kaeser, CEO, Siemens John Flannery, CEO, GE

7th Jan
2016
29th Aug
2016
Utilities doing the obvious in M&A:
RWE's Innogy acquires Belectric Solar & Battery
280 utility-scale photovoltaic plants and roof-top systems,
total installed capacity >1.5 GWp, plus 1 GW of O&M

7th Jan
2016
27th Oct
2017
“We pay no shareholder bonuses” …includes Doncaster, Leeds,
Liverpool, Durham, Nottingham, Islington, Bristol & by 2021 ….Scotland
A new wave of council-led publicly-owned energy
companies is emerging to challenge the UK’s Big 6

7th Jan
2016
14th Oct
2016
DSM, AkzoNobel, Google & Philips source power
from a wind farm owned by two local co-operatives
Windpark Krammer, Zeeland

Some think nuclear power
can come to the rescue
but….

• €18.5 bn market cap
• €37 bn net debt
• €22 bn for Hinkley C
• €55 bn for French
reactors
• €? bn for high
carbon in pressure-
vessel steel
What do you do if you are a CFO
with a balance sheet like this?
7th Mar
2016

EDF CFO resigns over CEO’s failure
to cancel Hinkley Point
7th Mar
2016
Thomas Piquemal
CFO
Jean-Bernard
Lévy, CEO

7th Jan
2016
6th Aug
2016 “Hinkley Pointless”
“Britain should
cancel its nuclear
white elephant
and spend the
billions on making
renewables work”

“If $100 was too high for the world, $50 is too low for the
industry. It will have to be somewhere in between.”
John Hess
CEO, Hess Corporation
Despite huge cuts, most oil majors couldn’t even
cover their costs at $50 oil in 2016
7th Jan
2016
2nd April
2017

7th Jan
2016
24th Aug
2016
“Big oil companies binge on debt”
Combined debt $184 bn, double their 2014 level
>100% of profits spent of dividends in 2015

“Energy companies buy time by paying debt
interest with more debt”
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016
W&T Offshore: offering bondholders 45% of equity plus
more debt notes deferring cash payments due
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016

Oil and gas extraction has been the least profitable
US industry over the last year
7th Jan
2016
24th Sep
2017
Negative net profit averaging almost 7%
on average over the 12 months to end July

“Oil price plunge sparks bankruptcy concerns”
11th Jan
2016
$29

The share prices have been dropping
…so has the rig count
10th Feb
2016
$30
Source: Baker Hughes data in the Oil & Gas Journal

7th Jan
2016
16th Sep
2016
North American oil & gas bankruptcies climb
beyond 100, on of debts $67bn
Filings 2015 & 2016 through August
Some are emerging with new capital structures within months
….reportedly on conservative assumptions about future production

7th Jan
2016
29th Jun
2017
After $13bn of writedowns, BHP chairman says
$20bn US shale investment in 2011 was “a mistake”
Jacques Nasser: “If we knew what we knew today,
we wouldn't do it, of course we wouldn't do it”

7th Jan
2016
29th Apr
2017
“More Rigs Don't Mean More U.S. Gas …producers
are running hard to stand still.”
Rigs double since August…
…and production drops

“Has the US shale drilling revolution peaked?”
7th Jan
2016
18th Oct
2017

The shale business hasn’t funded itself
at any oil price
7th Jan
2016
27th Dec
2017
Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, the 33 companies spent more
money producing shale energy than they made from operations
33 shale-weighted E&P companies in the 4 main shale oil plays:
Free cash flow
Source: Bloomberg

7th Jan
2016
1st June
2017
“The Global Oil & Gas Industry Is Cannibalizing Itself
To Stay Alive”
75% of operating
cash flow just to
pay interest
The Debt Wall
Amount of bonds below investment grade that the US
energy companies need to pay back each year

Long awaited EPA study concludes that fracking
does contaminate US drinking water
7th Jan
2016
5th June
2016
Both industry and EPA had said it did not until this report

7th Jan
2016
1st Aug
2017
“As the oil patch demands more water, West Texas
fights over a scarce resource”
Water companies are mining aquifers
Farmers and others are preparing to sue

Exposure to intense shale gas operations correlates
with higher risk of asthma attacks, researchers find
7th Jan
2016
18th July
2016
Study began in 2012 accessing medical records of >400,000 residents

7th Jan
2016
2nd June
2016 Scottish parliament bans fracking

7th Jan
2016
24th June
2016 Germany bans fracking

7th Jan
2016
30th Aug
2016
Victoria becomes first Australian state to
permanently ban fracking and coal seam gas
“It is clear that the Victorian community has spoken. They simply don’t
support fracking”: State government spokesperson

France bans fracking and oil extraction
in all of its territories
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2017
• President Macron says
he wants to lead the
world in race for
renewables
• Lawmakers hope the ban
will be “contagious”

7th Jan
2016
9th Nov
2016
Monterey county, a significant drilling target, votes
to ban fracking despite oil industry lobbying blitz

7th Jan
2016
8th Aug
2016
UK shale: “All households near fracking sites
set to get money paid straight into banks”

7th Jan
2016
3rd Aug
2017
Public support for fracking in the UK at record low
of 16%, government survey shows

World oil
supply
World oil
demand
70% drop in
oil price
What a difference a 1 – 2% variance can make

7th Jan
2016
26th Oct
2016
Supply under threat: spending on exploration since
2010 leads only to plunging oil and gas discoveries
IEA:
• 153 GW capacity added in 2015
• Total 23% of power (coal 39%)
• 2015-2021 projections up 13%
on last year
$>200 bn 2010-15

7th Jan
2016
12th Feb
2017
“Oil and gas discoveries dry up to lowest total
for 60 years”

1 Electric Vehicle = 15 barrels of oil / year
Source:Bloomberg
20
10
15
5
0
2010 2020 20252015 2030 2035 2040
Millionsofbarrelsofoilperday
Oil displaced by projected rise
of electric vehicles
Previous crashes happened with
excess supply of 2m barrels/day
2023
Another
oil crash?
24th Feb
2016
$31
Demand under “threat”: “Another oil crash is
coming and there may be no recovery”

DNV: World energy supply “likely to peak before
2030” …a “watershed moment in human history”
7th Jan
2016
4th Sep
2017
DNV-GL Energy Transition Outlook 2017
2025
GDP
Population
Energy
supply
Energy-
related CO2
emissions
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
2015
52%
fossil
fuel

7th Jan
2016
2nd Feb
2017
Carbon Tracker: Electric cars and cheap solar
“could halt fossil fuel growth by 2020”
COAL …demand peak 2020
GAS …demand curtailedOIL …demand plateau from 2020
TOTAL FOSSIL FUELS …demand peak 2020
Least fossil-fuel intensive
scenario: High PV / EV low
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Expect The Unexpected

7th Jan
2016
“Dismal delivery puts big oil and gas energy
projects at risk”
Gorgon: just back online after 2 major gas leaks since 2014 start
E&Y study of 365 oil and gas megaprojects:
64 % cost overrun, 73% behind schedule
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016

“Oil industry faces huge
worker shortage”
7th Jan
2016
8th July
2016
The average age of the oil
industry worker is 49
c. 350,000 workers laid off industry-wide, c. 60% of fracking workforce
laid off, c. 70% fracking equipment idled, >70 companies bankrupt

7th Jan
2016
21st Apr
2016
“As Oil Jobs Dry Up, Workers Turn to Solar Sector”
Alamo 6 solar farm

The core oil and gas climate
(and indeed survival) argument….
….is that burning gas is less bad for global
warming than burning coal

“The data confirm that we can and must
do more on methane.”
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
29th Feb
2016
xEPA Chief: Methane emissions from oil and gas
“substantially higher than we thought”

7th Jan
2016
28th Apr
2016
The U.S. oil and gas boom is having global
atmospheric consequences, NOAA reports
Fully 2% of rising global ethane concentrations from Bakken Shale

“Future of natural gas hinges on staunching
methane leaks”
7th Jan
2016
11th July
2016
EPA data collection programme underway on 10s of 1000s of oil and
gas operations. Some drillers have committed to <1% emissions.

2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
11th Mar
2016
xUS and Canada to cut methane emissions from
oil and gas industry by 40-45%

2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
11th Mar
2016
xAPI says it will take legal action because emissions
cuts will “threaten the shale revolution”
Jack Gerard
CEO

NASA-led team shows oil & gas industry responsible
for largest share of recent rising methane emissions
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2017
New measurements reconciling isotopic data suggest fossil fuels
contributed 12–19 Tg CH4 per year of c. 25 Tg CH4 per year since 2006

“The long twilight of the big oil companies”7th Jan
2016
27th May
2016
FT View: “Fossil
fuel producers
face a future of
slow and steady
decline”
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
27th May
2016

7th Jan
2016
“Oil giants find there’s nowhere to hide from
doomsday market”
7th Jan
2016
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016
7th Jan
2016
29th July
2016
$41
“The industry cannot survive on current oil prices.”

7th Jan
2016
19th Sep
2016
“Big Oil was never that big a money-maker,
Goldman Sachs says”
Oil price
(Brent, real)
CROCI
BP
Shell
ExxonMobil

Investment in fossil fuels takes a nosedive:
IEA on 2015
7th Jan
2016
20th Sep
2016
Fatih Birol, ED, IEA: “Anyone who does not understand what is going on
- governments, companies, markets – is not in the right place”

21st Mar
2016
$39
What happens when the oil price rises again?
“What has yet to be tested is how keen banks and bond investors
will be to finance that drilling.”

7th Jan
2016
3rd Aug
2017 “Oil has a crisis of faith”
“The likeliest culprit is fear that, even if oil prices aren't falling further,
they are low enough to affect E&P firms' growth plans”

7th Jan
2016
1st Jul
2017
“Oil Company Wins Over Investors by Promising to
Stop Looking for Oil”
“Suncor shares outperformed every major North American oil company
from June 2016 to May, as well as the S&P 500 index”

7th Jan
2016
21st Jun
2017
c. $2.3 trillion of capex should not be deployed
by 2025 if the OGI is to keep to a 2˚C budget
Within 2˚C budget (IEA 450)
…50% probability
Business
as usual
Capex($bn,real2017:
69publicallytradedcompanies)
Historic
Latest report: Two Degrees of Separation
Based on CTI & Rystad analysis
$1.6 tn oil
$700 bn gas
…of which
$200bn LNG

7th Jan
2016
16th Aug
2017
“Shell takes $14bn gas gamble with world’s biggest
floating structure”
FLNG vessel Prelude
Length 488 metres

7th Jan
2016
3rd Nov
2016
Shell CEO: “no-one makes money
from renewables”
Ben van Beurden

7th Jan
2016
3rd Nov
2016
“I did talk to him …to point out that we are making
profits …with solar energy priced at $0.05 per kWh.”
Paddy Padmanathan
CEO, ACWA Power

Big oil and gas companies are unsurprisingly
taking out hedge bets…

7th Jan
2016
18th Oct
2017
Statoil powers up world's first floating windfarm
off coast of Scotland
The $200m 30 MW Hywind project

Statoil takes first stake in utility-scale solar
7th Jan
2016
19th Sep
2017
Their first major move in solar is a 40% stake
in a 162 MW Scatec project in Brazil
(when you do, its still
all about oil & gas)

7th Jan
2016
7th Aug
2017
Shell to supply electricity to commercial
users in the UK from 2018

Shell buys electric car charging company
7th Jan
2016
12th Oct
2017
One of Europe’s largest, with 30,000 electric charge points

Shell to supply energy to UK households after
takeover of First Utility
7th Jan
2016
21st Dec
2017
£200 – 300 million for access to 850,000 homes to compete with the
vulnerable Big 6 and create a platform for expansion to other markets

7th Jan
2016
15th Dec
2017
BP to reenter solar market with 43% $200m stake
in developer Lightsource

BP to spend $400m a year on alternative energy,
says CEO: “We’re placing bets, but not big bets”
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2017
$400m is a fraction of its $15bn-$17 bn annual capital expenditure
…and its total $62 bn fines and settlements for the Gulf of Mexico spill

…so not like the “Beyond Petroleum” era then
7th Jan
20162000

One (former) oil and gas company has already
shown that total transition is possible….

7th Jan
2016
13th June
2016
Dong Energy - Danish Oil and Natural Gas - now 75%
renewables …enjoys most successful IPO of 2016
$16.5 bn market cap, $2.6 bn proceeds of IPO

DONG changes its name to reflect
near-100% transition to renewables
7th Jan
2016
2nd Oct
2017
Named after the Danish electricity pioneer, to reflect its
“profound strategic transformation from black to green energy.”
on track for
a 95%
renewable
footprint
by 2023

There is a major caveat to my cautiously upbeat
analysis of the global energy transition. It concerns
the wider uses and abuses of tech in society….

Notwithstanding all the manifest good digitalisation
can bring to the energy transition, development, and
wider social goals….

7th Jan
2016
17th Jul
2017
Elon Musk: regulate Artificial Intelligence to combat
its “existential threat” before it is too late
“By the time we are reactive in AI regulation, it’ll be too late.
AI is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilisation.”

7th Jan
2016
13th Mar
2017
Microsoft researcher warns AI is “ripe for abuse”
by authoritarian regimes
“This is a fascist’s dream - power without accountability.”
Kate Crawford

Campaign to Stop Killer Robots produces
hair-raising video of current lethal capabilities
7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2017

“...cheap and convenient assassination machines
available to everybody with an axe to grind”
7th Jan
2016
28th Aug
2017
As described by Max Tegmark, professor of physics at MIT
co-founder of the Future of Life Institute

7th Jan
2016
8th Jan
2017
Hundreds of AI / robotics researchers develop 23
principles for global use: the Asilomar Principles
23) Common Good: Superintelligence should only be
developed in the service of widely shared ethical
ideals, and for the benefit of all humanity rather than
one state or organization

History and future of the global energy transition in pictures and charts, 2016 - 2017

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Mais procurados (20)

Semelhante a History and future of the global energy transition in pictures and charts, 2016 - 2017

Semelhante a History and future of the global energy transition in pictures and charts, 2016 - 2017 (19)

Mais de Jeremy Leggett

Mais de Jeremy Leggett (10)

Último

Último (20)

History and future of the global energy transition in pictures and charts, 2016 - 2017