This presentation is the basis for my contribution to a panel discussion on climate solutions organised by the New York Times and The Conduit Club in London today. The focus was on China. In the pictures-and-charts slideshow, I first summarise trends in the Chinese response to climate change, which I see as strongly net positive. I then argue that action on climate change in isolation is not enough in the modern world, for China or any other major power. The compound threats we now face from tech and its uses require a holistic approach to security - environmental, economic, and military.
The presentation is derived from the chronology in pictures and charts of selected developments in energy, climate, tech and the future of civilization on my website, Future Today: www.jeremyleggett.net
China's vision for climate action ....and related issues pertinent to common security
1. China’s vision for climate action
and related issues pertinent to common security
7 March 2019
New York Times and The Conduit
climate solutions discussion, London
Jeremy Leggett
2. Preamble
This presentation is the basis for points made on a
panel discussion and Q&A at the event. It is derived
from the chronology in pictures and charts of selected
developments in energy, climate, tech and the future of
civilization on my website….
4. The imperatives for action on
climate change and air pollution, and
the need for multilateral co-operation,
are clear to the Chinese government
5. Infrastructure the world needs by 2030 will require
c. $90 trillion of investment, built clean or fossil
7th Jan
2016
5th Sep
2018
Building it clean – low & zero carbon, as per governments’ 2015 Paris
Agreement commitments – yields $26 trillion in direct economic gain.
The main conclusion of
a Global Commission
on the Economy and
Climate report
(with Chinese involvement)
6. Global pollution kills 9 million a year
and threatens “survival of human societies”
7th Jan
2016
20th Oct
2017
Commission on Pollution and Health, published in the Lancet
…the most comprehensive medical study to date
• Triple AIDS, malaria and TB combined
• Almost certainly a significant underestimate
• Welfare losses: e $4.6 trillion/year, 6% of GDP
• Air pollution is the single biggest cause of death
7. Including 3 billion people breathing deadly fumes from domestic
cooking stoves and fires, causing an estimated 3.8 million deaths.
Air pollution kills 7 million people a year, WHO
reports, and 90% globally breathe polluted air
7th Jan
2016
1st May
2018
8. 7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2016
“China’s ‘airpocalypse’ hits half a billion people”
In worst air pollution this year, 24 cities on red alert.
Schools shut and flights grounded.
10. China has been a key player in the
delivery of the Paris Agreement (2015),
and its survival and continuation during
the Trump years (2016 to 2019)
11. Close US-China collaboration on climate
during 2014 becomes clear at COP 20
Dec
2014
US & China envoys Todd Stern and Xie Zhenhua, representing 40% of
global emissions, at the Lima climate summit.
12. 7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2016
e-mail leak reveals extent of US-China climate ties
in the run up to the Paris Agreement
Stern to Xie: “You know, President Xi told President Obama
in their bilateral meeting in Paris that climate change could
be an illustration of the new model of major power
relations, and I think we have, in fact, made it so.”
Todd Stern Xie Zhenhua
13. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Sep
2016
US and China announce they have ratified
the Paris Agreement at G20 Summit
This leadership undoubtedly encouraged enough other states to ratify
for the treaty to come into force in November 2016.
14. China to cut 1.8m jobs in coal and steel sectors,
spend £10bn on worker relocation
29th Feb
2016
Single-party states like China can move faster than liberal democracies.
And in seeking to abate climate change and air-pollution, China has.
16. 7th Jan
2016
17th Jan
2017
"China can take lead, climate envoy says"
Source: Oxfam report for Davos
KSA’s sole solar
plant: a 10 MW
Aramco car park
17. China kicks off world's largest carbon trading market
in major bid to abate climate change and clean air
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2017
Initially to cover the power generation sector – responsible for
c. half national emissions from fossil fuels.
18. 7th Jan
2016
11th Jan
2018
Unusually clear air in Beijing as action
on smog begins to bite
PM2.5 emissions fell around Beijing during Q4 2017 vs Q4 2016,
despite recovering growth and higher energy usage.
19. China announces it has already met its
2020 Paris climate goal
7th Jan
2016
27th Mar
2018
Target: CO2 emissions as a unit of GDP down 40-45 % wrt 2005 by 2020.
Achievement: down 46% by end 2017, 5.1% down year-on-year.
21. China’s CO2 emissions grew 1.4% in 2017
after 3 years flat or falling
7th Jan
2016
8th Mar
2018
Official statistics show much lower than commonly estimated growth
in both coal consumption and CO2 emissions.
22. China’s CO2 emissions grew again in 2018,
albeit slower than expected
7th Jan
2016
5th Mar
2019
Up 2.3% in 2018, as CO2 emissions per unit of GDP fell by 4.0%
while GDP grew by 6.6%.
23. Domestic pressure has been a factor:
among the Chinese population
air-pollution is feared,
renewable energy is popular
and conventional energy unpopular
24. 7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2017
82% in 13 countries believe it is important to create
a world fully powered by renewable energy
Largest ever such study: 26,000 people surveyed by Edelman for Orsted.
China scores highest at 93%.
25. 7th Jan
2016
31st Aug
2016
Chinese public overwhelmingly backs renewables
push: 92% willing to pay more for green power
Equivalent polls in US and UK: 50% & 48%
26. 7th Jan
2016
10th Aug
2016
Mass protest against Sino-French nuclear waste
plant threatens Chinese national nuclear plans
Lianyungang, Jiangsu province
This is the third nuclear project to attract
significant public opposition in the past 10 years.
All have been called off.
28. The development of a domestic solar
industry in China has been a major
factor in exponential growth
of the global solar market
29. For the first time, global solar capacity grew faster
in 2017 than all fossil fuels and nuclear combined
7th Jan
2016
5th Apr
2018
The record 98 GW of new solar built in 2017 increased the world’s
cumulative capacity by a third, to 399GW. 51GW of this was in China.
Fossil fuels
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Other renewables Nuclear
Global growth in net electricity generating capacity
(i.e. including retirements of plants)125
100
75
50
25
0
GW
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
30. Asia added 75% of all new solar PV. The EU was down to just 6 GW.
India added 9.1 GW, 3rd in the world, and 6th in cumulative capacity.
By end 2017, every continent had installed 1 GW of
solar PV and at least 29 nations had 1 GW or more
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018
Future Today
Global solar PV capacity 2007 - 2017: main countries
Source: REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report
31. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
IEA’s 23rd annual Trends in Photovoltaic Applications
report tells a remarkable industrial success story
Of 99 GW global total
33. This growth has driven a whole new
dimension in energy economics: coal is being
displaced as the least expensive option - in
China and elsewhere - greatly helping the
climate policy agenda
34. 7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2017
More than half of EU’s coal-fired power stations
are lossmaking, and almost all will be by 2030
Analysis of >600 power plants by Carbon Tracker estimates €22bn
of losses could be avoided by phasing out coal by 2030
36. 7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2018
Carbon Tracker satellite analysis shows 40% of
Chinese coal fleet is cash-flow negative in 2018…
…owing to high fuel costs (capacity weighted average of $85/t). By 2040
95% will be loss-making, due to C pricing & air pollution regulation.
Solarcentury solar farm, Panama
37. 7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2018
It will be cheaper for China to build new onshore
wind than operate coal by 2021, & solar PV by 2025
So Carbon Tracker concludes in its latest report. Chinese coal power
owners can avoid losing $390 bn by retiring the operating fleet in a
manner consistent with the Paris Agreement.
Solarcentury solar farm, Panama
38. Note the importance of globalisation:
the supply chain for the entire global solar
industry is mostly located in China
Deterioration in international relations
could adversely affect the solar industry
39. It’s not just about solar and wind. China is
fast-tracking a broad clean-energy family
40. 7th Jan
2016
1st Feb
2018
China dwarfs other nations manufacturing batteries,
with a pipeline >3x rest of the world combined
42. BYD’s first electric bus, just seven years ago, was seen as a joke. Now
China’s e-buses are displacing 233,000 barrels of oil a day.
Every five weeks, Chinese cities are adding 9,500
electric buses – the size of the London bus fleet
7th Jan
2016
23rd Apr
2018
Honda’s Asimo
43. 7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2018
Shenzhen has the world's first and largest fleet of
fully electric buses: 16,000 of them
Shenzhen Bus Group estimates 160,000 tonnes of coal saved p.a. and
440,000 tonnes of annual CO2 emissions reduced, with fuel bill halved.
45. 7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2016
China has 317 million smart meters in operation,
covering 100% of urban areas and 70% of rural areas
Presentation by Zhang Gang, Counsellor of the State Council of China
46. 7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2016
….including smart co-ordination spanning all aspects
of grids, at all scales, involving 230 million users
Presentation by Zhang Gang, Counsellor of the State Council of China
47. 7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2016
….including China’s first expressway fast-charging
EV network between Beijing and Shanghai
Presentation by Zhang Gang, Counsellor of the State Council of China
48. China to ban production of petrol and diesel cars
“in the near future”, Vice Minister for Industry says
7th Jan
2016
11th Sep
2017
49. BYD founder lobbies Beijing for early ban
of internal combustion engine
7th Jan
2016
21st Sep
2017
Wang Chianfu: “China will run out of oil soon” …all buses will have to be
electric by 2020, all heavy trucks by 2025, all cars by 2030
50. 7th Jan
2016
11th Jan
2019
Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy
Transformation reports: Expect a new world
“The world that will emerge from the
renewable energy transition will be
very different from the one that was
built on a foundation of fossil fuels.
…Global power structures and
arrangements will change in many
ways and the dynamics of
relationships within states will also be
transformed.
Power will become more
decentralized and diffused…. the
majority of countries will have the
potential to achieve energy
independence, enhancing their
development and security as a result.
51. The energy incumbency is fighting a
rearguard action in China, just as it is
in many another nation
…and Trumpist US bellicosity is taking its toll
52. “China Vows to Fight Trump Tariffs ‘to the End’
as Tension Rises”
7th Jan
2016
5th Apr
2018
Shares tumble as Trump considers a further $100bn of tariffs. If China
played tit-for-tat, tariffs would be on all US exports to China.
53. Subsidies cut, installation capped at 10 GW. Solar manufacturers’ stock
prices plunge. Developers overseas anticipate lower prices, but…
Chinese government slams the brakes on domestic
solar, and the global industry braces for the impact
7th Jan
2016
5th Jun
2018
Solar PV capacity and additions 2017: top ten countries
Source: REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report
54. Expect “another wave of oversupply, low profitability and consolidation”
then solar “even more competitive across new markets.”
2018 global solar demand to increase 11%
to 105 GW despite China cuts, IHS Markit forecasts
7th Jan
2016
8th Jun
2018
55. China sets renewable energy target of 35% by 2030
amid concerns about new coal-plant construction
7th Jan
2016
26th Sep
2018
Previous goal: “non fossil fuel” to make up 20% of energy by 2030. But
satellite photos suggest a disastrous 250 GW of new coal being built.
56. 7th Jan
2016
1st Oct
2018
China’s economy is decelerating, prompting Beijing to
pare back environmental policies to boost GDP.
Beijing axes coal and steel production curbs as
Trump’s trade war impacts economy
57. 7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2018
FT reporter gathers evidence from locals that
China’s fracking for gas is polluting water supply
Residents of Xiaohaotu in Shaanxi province: “the water is beyond
repair”, containing multiple toxins. Elevated cancer & 70% with skin
rashes. Pigs & sheep dying after drinking water. Sinopec: no comment.
58. China plans to use a nuclear bomb detonator to
mine shale gas in an earthquake zone (Sichuan)
7th Jan
2016
27th Feb
2019
China has biggest shale resource in the world on paper, but 80% is
below 3,500 m, not amenable to hydraulic fracturing.
Chinese well with fracking, Chongqing
59. “Russia’s $55bn pipeline gamble on China’s
demand for gas”
7th Jan
2016
3rd Apr
2018
“Russia’s first eastern pipeline is the most striking physical manifestation
of President Putin’s diplomatic pivot towards China”.
It is a bet that China’s green energy tech won’t grow exponentially.
60. 7th Jan
2016
18th Nov
2018
UK government using DFID money to promote
fracking - & prospects for British frackers - in China
Millions of aid £ spent on overseas O&G incl. 2 schemes to “export the
UK’s expertise in shale gas regulation” to China, Platform reports.
61. China’s clean-energy and climate-action leadership
is strongly net positive
But this has to be viewed in a holistic context:
governments ultimately cannot solve the climate
crisis if they persist in parallel with the current race to
last-man-standing on wider tech-and-security issues
62. The search for a military edge is one driver. But both US and Chinese
companies talk of new potential for open-source collaboration.
“The AI arms race: China and US compete to
dominate big data”: FT
7th Jan
2016
1st May
2018
63. So the FT reports. China is vulnerable, spending more on imported
silicon than oil, prompting a scramble to expand domestic chip supply.
US-China tech wars threaten ‘economic carnage’ as
US seeks to rein in growing power of Chinese tech
7th Jan
2016
8th May
2018
64. “China seeks dominance of global AI industry”
7th Jan
2016
16th Oct
2017
Advantages over USA:
• government investment
• sheer number of people
• data & slack privacy laws
• talent & tech literacy
• superior number of lines
of code being written
The “BAT” tech titans are
close to government:
• Baidu
• Alibaba
• Tencent
65. 10 years ago China spent $35 bn on defence. Now $230 bn.
Silicon Valley started out on DoD largesse.
People’s Liberation Army and corporate China
“draw ever closer” as military budget rises: FT
7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2018
66. 7th Jan
2016
9th Nov
2018
“China’s drone makers zero in on armed forces”
The Zhuhai Air Show: >350 Chinese private firms now make drones.
Chinese companies have the lion’s share of the international market.
67. Onboard AI systems will make decisions on course and depth. Unclear if
they will have autonomous kill/no-kill decisionmaking capability.
7th Jan
2016
15th Aug
2018
China follows the US in building a fleet of
autonomous, AI-powered submarines, due 2020
One of the two US AI Unmanned Undersea Vehicles under development
The other is Boeing’s Echo Voyager. Also both due 2020.
68. 7th Jan
2016
16th Oct
2018
US-China tensions soar: we are in a “new cold war”
as China goes on offense in face of Trump bellicosity
Including dangerous manoeuvres by Chinese and US warships in South
China Sea, and a major return by China to cyberwar.
Fuelling the Future? Does Britain’s
green energy strategy stack up?
Confrontation between the USS Decatur and
a Chinese navy warship, Sept 2018
69. US and UK accuse Chinese government of sustained
hacking campaign as 2 are indicted in the USA
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2018
Chinese hackers accused of obtaining unauthorised access to the computers of at least
45 entities, including commercial and defence technology companies and US
government agencies such as Nasa and the US Navy.
70. LinkedIn struggles with a “super-aggressive" effort
by China to recruit spies in US using fake accounts
7th Jan
2016
31st Aug
2018
The targets are people with access to confidential information. German
and British security agencies have reported similar Chinese campaigns.
71. 7th Jan
2016
7th Dec
2018
“Inside China’s audacious plan for global
media dominance”
Since 2003 the political goals of the People’s Liberation Army have
overtly included “media warfare.” Today China Global TV Network is
hiring and training journalists worldwide “to tell China’s story well.”
72. As in any arms race in history, the US and UK
are far from simply reactive
….it’s just that we hear more in our media
about China’s activities than our own
73. US Air Force posts a video on You tube about its
cyber training: “The Making of a Cyberwarrior”
7th Jan
2016
16th Apr
2013
“They are fighting a war every day on the wire’, says one officer. The
video does not make it look as if this is purely a defensive war.
74. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Nov
2016
British government pledges to “damage, disrupt
and destroy” cyberattackers - including proactively
Attacking tools being developed by the National Offensive Cyber
Programme, a partnership between the Ministry of Defence and GCHQ.
Philip Hammond, Defence Minister, in a speech
75. In parallel with the new arms race, the
Chinese government’s intended use of
technology for authoritarian purposes is a
major complicating factor
76. 7th Jan
2016
28th Jul
2017
The biggest facial recognition system in the world
is rolling out in China ….and the most invasive use
Officials aim to enroll every Chinese citizen into a nationwide database by 2020.
A recently pioneered social credit system aims to give every citizen a rating.
77. 7th Jan
2016
8th July
2018
“China is reversing the commonly held vision of technology as a great
democratizer, bringing people more freedom and connecting them.”
“Inside China’s Dystopian Dreams: A.I., Shame and
Lots of Cameras”
c. 200 million of
these nationwide
78. 7th Jan
2016
22nd Feb
2017
China has deployed robots for facial recognition
at an airport and a railway station
The AnBot, developed by the National Defence University, can answer
travellers’ questions ….while monitoring them.
79. 7th Jan
2016
23rd Jul
2017
Chinese companies are helping police develop AI
intending to identify criminals before they act
Li Meng, vice-minister of science and technology: If we use AI, “we can know
beforehand . . . who might be a terrorist, who might do something bad.”
80. 7th Jan
2016
21st Nov
2018
“Beijing to Judge Every Resident Based on Behavior
by End of 2020”
Those deemed untrustworthy will be “unable to move even a single
step,” according to the plan published on the city government’s website.
Meeting of the Beijing
Municipal City Peoples’
government
81. In the government-backed project, artificial intelligence algorithms scan
the data for outliers that could indicate anxiety or rage.
Chinese companies conduct ‘emotional
surveillance’ of workers’ via hat or helmet sensors
7th Jan
2016
30th Apr
2018
82. Data leak reveals China is tracking almost 2.6m
people using facial recognition in Xinjiang
7th Jan
2016
17th Feb
2019
SenseNets boasts of the four police contracts it has, and how it has
helped “bring charges against people involved in illegal gatherings.”
Security researcher
finds that a
Shenzen-based
facial-recognition
company & police
contractor,
SenseNets,
collected nearly
6.7m GPS co-
ordinates in one
database in a 24-
hour period.
83. Beijing “is committing some of the most extensive, and neglected,
human-rights violations in the world” against Muslim Uighurs.
“China has turned Xinjiang into a police state
like no other”
7th Jan
2016
31st May
2018
Future Today
84. Russia’s current policy of subverting western
democracies is also a major complicating factor
85. • One or more of the three US
grids down for weeks or months
“not just possible but likely”
e.g. It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when:
Centcom Commander General Lloyd Austin
15th Nov
2015
• NSA says Russians and Chinese
have conducted reconnaissance
• US government unprepared
86. The stakes could not be higher for those
who believe their liberal democracies and
open societies should remain such
87. Democracy has regressed in multiple countries
since 2007, and liberal democracy especially
7th Jan
2016
12th Jun
2018
In 1941 there were only a dozen democracies; by 2000 only 8 states had
never held a serious election. But since the financial crisis of 2007-08….
88. 7th Jan
2016
8th Jan
2019
The EIU Democracy Index scores 167 countries 0-10 based on 60
indicators. It stopped declining in 2018, but is expected to keep falling.
Just 4.5% of the world’s people live in a “full
democracy”: Economist Intelligence Unit
89. 7th Jan
2016
24th Jan
2019
Combination of repressive regimes & IT monopolies
poses “a mortal threat to open societies”
So George Soros warns Davos. Because of China’s citizen-scoring plan, Xi
Xinping is “the most dangerous opponent of open societies.”
90. Donald Trump praises Xi Jinping's President-for-life
power grab & says….
7th Jan
2016
4th Mar
2018
“Dictators are always arrogant. It’s a disaster for political civilization.”
Qiao Mu, exiled Chinese journalism professor.
91. As things stand, western companies
pour petrol on an already highly
unstable situation
92. The world's most valuable AI startup targets
nationwide facial recognition
7th Jan
2016
9th Apr
2018
Co-founder of China’s $3 bn SenseTime Group Xu Li: “It will not affect
privacy because only authorized persons can access it.”
93. And who is bankrolled this armour-plating of authoritarianism?
Many western financial institutions.
“World's Biggest AI Startup Raises $1.2 Billion in
Mere Months”: Bloomberg on Sense Time Group
7th Jan
2016
31st May
2018
Future Today
94. New Facebook revelation: data shared with four
Chinese consumer-device makers, including Huawei
7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2018
Ren Zhengfei, ex Chinese Army,
Huawei founder and CEO
New questions arise. Has data gone to Chinese servers? Have back
doors been created for Chinese hacking? And users were not told….
95. 7th Jan
2016
17th Jan
2019
“Huawei solar panels could threaten US grid,
lawmakers warn”
Both Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives say
that Huawei solar equipment could be hacked to allow China
“to slow or even interrupt US electricity supplies.”
96. 7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
Google CEO refuses to rule out development of a
censored network for China
Sundar Pichai in Congressional Testimony: “We think it’s in our duty to
explore possibilities to give users access to information.”
97. The interplay of all the foregoing will express
itself in the evolution of the Chinese
government’s “Belt and Road Initiative”
….which is not unfolding well
as things stand
98. China’s Belt and Road grand plan: serious delays,
ballooning debts, mounting sovereignty concerns
7th Jan
2016
1st Apr
2018
The Nikkei Asian Review and The Banker review the progress
of the $1 trillion mega-project in 8 countries.
99. 7th Jan
2016
9th July
2018
US study suggests 234 of 1,674 Chinese-invested infrastructure projects
(14%) announced in 66 countries have hit corruption and other troubles.
China’s Belt and Road difficulties proliferate across
the world in the face of local controversies
Former Malaysian PM Najib
Razak charged with corruption
100. A crucial litmus test of Chinese
intentions in the Belt and Road
initiative will be at the bottom end
of the energy ladder
101. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
27 countries have reached a minimum of 1 GW of
solar PV …but only one in Africa
Source: IEA Trends in Photovoltaic
Applications 2018
9 countries installed at least 1 GW in 2017. Cumulative per capita all
years: 1. Germany 514W. 2. Japan 390W. 3. Belgium 341W.
Distribution of the 403 GW of global cumulative PV power by end 2017
102. Data include only quality-verified pico-solar (<11 W) and solar home
system products, c. 30% of all. Other 70% are generic products.
Global solar lighting sales have essentially stalled
since 2015 …despite steep rise in investment
7th Jan
2016
26th Apr
2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
H2
2010
H1
2011
H2
2011
H1
2012
H2
2012
H1
2013
H2
2013
H1
2014
H2
2014
H1
2015
H2
2015
H1
2016
H2
2016
H1
2017
H2
2017
million
Data source: GOGLA / Lighting Global
<35 million solar light sales in all
> $600 m$207m$75 m$18 m$21 mInvestment:
103. 7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Off grid solar lighting sales fell again in 2018 H1
….no sign of the growth needed to hit SDG 7
A billion people remain without electricity. Yet existing light sales mean
c. $3.5bn additional income for households over lifetime of products.
million
4
33
1
2
12%
down
104. Further thoughts on the economic backdrop
against which all the above drama will play out
105. 7th Jan
2016
24th Jan
2019
“The golden age of globalisation” (1990 -2010) is
being replaced by a new age of “slowbalisation”
“Fortunately, this need not be a disaster for living standards.
Continental-sized markets are large enough to prosper.”
In the last decade “cross-border
investment, trade, bank loans
and supply chains have all been
shrinking or stagnating relative to
world GDP”
In 2018:
• Chinese investment into
Europe and America fell by
73%.
• The global value of cross-
border investment by
multinational companies sank
by about 20%.
106. Of the top 50 tech startups by value, 26 are Chinese
and 16 are American, with none from Europe
7th Jan
2016
15th Jun
2018
Of the top 20, 11 are Chinese, 6 are American and 2 are Indian. As a
Sequoia Capital partner puts it: “China is winning the global tech race.”
107. Europe needs its own fully-integrated battery
supply chain Umicore CEO tells FT
7th Jan
2016
14th Feb
2019
Marc Grynberg: “Given the sheer size of the requirements ….it makes
most sense in my opinion to have a regional supply chain.”
108. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Oct
2018
Median government debt-GDP ratio stands at 52%, up from 36% before
the 2008 crisis. Rising inequality and hoarding make a crash more likely.
With world debt well above 2008 levels, world
economy is at risk of another financial crash: IMF
109. Steve StAngelo in SRSrocco Report: this mountain of debt will crash the
global economy – it is not a matter of if, but when.
In 2017, the global economy grew $3.9tn to $79.3tn
....and global debt grew $21tn to $237tn
7th Jan
2016
24th May
2018
110. A happy outcome will require a new global
common security regime in parallel with
climate action
Three quick examples of what will be needed
(this is a much bigger discussion)…..
111. The world needs a global cyberwar treaty, says a
former head of GCHQ
7th Jan
2016
21st Feb
2018
Richard Hannigan: “I think the worrying thing is that international
relations at the moment mean that people don't feel constrained.”
112. 7th Jan
2016
8th Jan
2017
Hundreds of AI / robotics researchers develop 23
principles for global use: the Asilomar Principles
Principle 23 Common Good: Superintelligence should only be
developed in the service of widely shared ethical ideals, and for the
benefit of all humanity rather than one state or organization
Principle 17 Non-subversion: The power conferred by control of highly
advanced AI systems should respect and improve, rather than subvert,
the social and civic processes on which the health of society depends.
113. Governments meet in Geneva to consider global
ban on killer robots, with an arms race underway
7th Jan
2016
9th Apr
2018
At least 381 partly autonomous weapon & military robotics systems are
deployed or in development in 12 states, incl. US, Russia, China, UK.
114. This may sound utopian, but than so once did
negotiation of not just the Paris Agreement, but
also the Montreal Protocol on ozone depletion,
the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, and the
arms-control treaties negotiated during and at
the end of the Cold War
None of these were / are perfect, but they
provide a platform of historical precedent on
which to build the global common security
regime that must parallel ongoing climate action
