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January 2010




Adjacent Market Strategy
Development & Execution



Prepared for
This breakout session on adjacent markets will focus on the following…


   Key questions A&D leaders are asking about adjacent markets today


   Overview of a variety of adjacent market strategies that have been employed
    previously by A&D firms


   Methodology for maximizing success when entering adjacent markets


   Analysis of several high visibility adjacent markets of interest to the A&D
    community
       – Cyber
       – Health IT
       – Energy & Environmental
       – Smart power




                                                                                  THE AVASCENT GROUP | 2
We are the leading independent management consulting firm serving
companies dedicated to meeting the most demanding government challenges
              20+ Years of experience (formerly DFI Corporate Services)
              Experienced, cross-functional team of over 50 professionals
                  Worldwide network of subject and regional experts



                                    We bring:
                                                                  Pragmatic Growth
                                                                      Solutions
                                    Informed
                                Strategic Insight
   Sophisticated
Fact-Based Analysis
Fact-

              To help our clients conceive, develop and execute
                       Business Growth Strategies
                                     to address
                      Complex Public Sector Needs

                                                                                     THE AVASCENT GROUP | 3
The slowdown in the defense spending growth cycle naturally raises cause for concern and
scrutiny at senior levels throughout the A&D industry
 National Security Macrotrend Budgetary Risk Analysis

                                                                   DoD Budget, 1948-2010                                                                                                                                                   Key Market Issues
                                                                   Including Supplementals, Real $
     800                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   • OPTEMPO in Iraq and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Afghanistan has driven
     700
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             defense spending to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             unprecedented levels
     600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           • Total topline DoD
$B                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           spending is expected to
     500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     decline in the next few
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             years, but historical
     400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     peacetime funding will still
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             be substantial
     300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           • Many of the cuts have
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             already been made in the
     200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             procurement arena,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             targeting under
     100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     performing and non-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             strategic programs
      0
                                                                                                             1976
                                                                                                                    1978
                                                                                                                           1980
                                                                                                                                  1982
                                                                                                                                         1984
                                                                                                                                                1986
                                                                                                                                                       1988
                                                                                                                                                              1990
                                                                                                                                                                     1992
                                                                                                                                                                            1994
                                                                                                                                                                                   1996
                                                                                                                                                                                          1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                 2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010
           1948
                  1950
                         1952
                                1954
                                       1956
                                              1958
                                                     1960
                                                            1962
                                                                   1964
                                                                          1966
                                                                                 1968
                                                                                        1970
                                                                                               1972
                                                                                                      1974




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           • R&D remains steady as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             well as a variety of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             support service functions
                     RDT&E                           Military Personnel                               Other                       Procurement                               Operations & Maintenance                                         (particularly white collar)




            Source: DoD Greenbook, Avascent Analysis                                                                                                                                                                                                       THE AVASCENT GROUP | 4
When recent historic corporate growth objectives become increasingly difficult to attain,
   adjacent markets gain greater visibility

               Paths to Growth


                                                                       Corporate
                                                                        Objective
                                                                     8-10% growth*




                                                          Organic                 Inorganic
                                                          Growth                   Growth



                                    Gain share from    Grow new            Fill gaps or gain customer   Purchase new
                                     competitors      capabilities                    access             capabilities




                                 Core                                   Adjacent                               New
                                Markets                                 Markets                               Markets




* Assumption based on recent past performance                                                                           THE AVASCENT GROUP | 5
As a result, these types of questions about adjacent markets are being heard frequently by
Boards, C level leaders, and heads of strategy and corporate development

       Key Questions


     “My core market is projected to be stagnant or declining in the near to medium term
      after years of robust growth… should my company enter new markets or try to
      compete more aggressively in the core?”

     “If my company enters an adjacent market, how can adjacent markets be compared?”

     “How can a company leverage its capabilities and customers into new markets – and
      can it be done organically or through acquisition?”

     “Will a major play into an adjacent market be positive in the near to medium term for
      creating shareholder value given current growth and margin expectations?”

     “What types of partners and/or acquisition targets should my company be familiar with
      as we look to enter these new markets?”

     “Does my company need to hire people with non-traditional backgrounds and
      expertise in these new markets in order to be successful?”

     “My competitor just stood up a (cyber, smart power, health IT, energy) organization,
      should I be concerned and should I stand one up as well?”

                                                                                     THE AVASCENT GROUP | 6
Aerospace & Defense companies large and small have had the entire gamut of results when
entering adjacent markets over the last decade

   Company             Adjacent Market Strategy                      Results                       Lesson Learned

      Fortune 100      Launch of telecom business unit during       $1.5B and exit from market     Anticipated market
      Defense and      period of rapid growth in IT/Telecom                                        demand did not
       Aerospace       markets by building on deep IT expertise                                    materialize
       Company

      Fortune 100      Launch of high-speed Internet service        Exited market due to lack      Anticipated market
                       for travelers worldwide by leveraging        of demand                      demand did not
      Defense and      ground and data stations                                                    materialize
       Aerospace
       Company

                       Developed strategy to improve oil            Sold capability to oil & gas   Challenge to monetize
      Fortune 100
                       exploration using its own deep defense       industry leader                non-core business
      Defense and      technology expertise and through a
       Aerospace       partner’s capabilities
       Company

                       Expanded into energy market to service       Stand-alone business           Near term results in
      Multi-
      Multi-billion    oil & gas firms by using market leading      dedicated to Energy            adjacent markets may
                       manufacturing capabilities                   markets                        under-perform even when
    Dollar Aerospace
                                                                                                   long term strategy sound
        company

                       Paid significant multiple to acquire cyber   Formed the core of the         Short-commute adjacency
      Fortune 100                                                   company’s market leading       expansions are lower risk
                       business that had leading edge
      Defense and      technology and intelligence community        cyber business
       Aerospace       relationships
       Company

                       Expansion into security marketplace via      Multi-billion dollar           Understanding core
      Fortune 50
                       multiple acquisitions with the goal of       business today and a core      competencies leads to
      Defense &                                                     corporate business             entry into optimal
                       establishing market leadership
      Industrial                                                                                   adjacencies
      Company
                                                                                                           THE AVASCENT GROUP | 7
Given this uncertainty around entering adjacent markets, companies can reduce risk and
maximize opportunity through a phased market targeting process

                                       Identifying Adjacent Markets

      Phase 1                          Phase 2                          Phase 3
           Competency / Customer                General Market                Targeted Adjacency
             Match – Inside-Out           Attractiveness - Outside-In            Assessment

        Can a company leverage its           How attractive is the         What are the entry points
          core competencies and                   market?                   and opportunities for a
         customer relationships?                                           company in the market?

        • Screen of adjacent             • Screen based on overall        • Final set of targeted
          horizontal and vertical          market attractiveness            adjacencies for a company
          markets based on a
                                                                          • Representative markets
          company’s core
                                                  ~ 20 Markets              could include:
          competencies and               • Examination of market to
          customers                        include:                          • Cyber

        • Examination would include:                                         • Health
                                            • Customer
            • Customer relationships                                         • Energy
                                            • Competitor
                                                                             • Smart Power
            • Technical/                    • Supplier                           ~ 20 Markets
              manufacturing
              capabilities                  • Market growth               • Assessment of optimal
            • Culture                       • Market size                   market entry points




                                                                                            THE AVASCENT GROUP | 8
Phase 1: Inside-Out - When looking to expand into adjacent markets, “short commutes” by
either customer or capability but not both simultaneously tend to be easier to achieve

 Maintain
   – Maintain existing customer base and           Growth Map
     technology focus
   – Organic Focus




                                                              NEW
 Extend: New Capability, Current Customer                              Extend                    Big Bang
   – Expanding service offerings to existing




                                                  CUSTOMERS
     customer groups offers growth path
   – Organic or Inorganic


 Extend: Current Capability, New Customer
   – Likewise, offering current capabilities to




                                                              CURRENT
     new customer groups is a logical
     adjacency- if existing technology supports                         Maintain                  Extend
     easy transfer
   – Organic or Inorganic

                                                                        CURRENT                    NEW
 “Big Bang”: New Capability, New Customer
                                                                                   CAPABILITIES
   – Expanding both capabilities offered and
     customers served would indicate a
     significant change of direction - likely
     driven by inorganic growth
   – Inorganic Focus


                                                                                                         THE AVASCENT GROUP | 9
Phase 2: Outside-In – General Market Attractiveness Evaluation
              Market Potential    Relevant Customers     Analysis                         Strategic Implications
                                                         Aggressive funding and           Many companies are more
                                    Intelligence         stakeholder battle creates        focused on general network IT
Cyber         FY10 Market Size
                                     Community            near-term opportunities           development and
                   $12B
                                    DHS                 Ill-defined programs              implementation and rebranded
                                                                                            as Cyber
              FY10-14 CAGR 8%       DOD                  outside of IC create
                                                          challenges                       Customer positioning key to
                                                                                            long-term viability (NSA)

                                                         Focus on EHR, network            New focus, but not new
                                    Military Health
Healthcare    FY10 Market Size                            modernization, and                market; many firms have
                                     System               application development
Information        $10B                                                                     already placed bets, with
Technology                          VA                   are critical                      remaining targets often,
              FY10-14 CAGR 5%       HHS                 Contract vehicle                  less value-additive
                                                          positioning is key for future    Contract vehicle
                                    Social Security
                                                          success                           positioning is critical
                                     Administration

                                                         Near-term ARRA funding           Defining the addressable
Energy and                          Dept of Energy
                                                          creates gap fill                  market and relative
               FY08 Market Size
Environment                         NOAA                Better funded market sub-         positioning is key
                 $7B - $50B
                                    GSA                  segments are evolutionary,       Firms with flexible
                                                          e.g. green buildings and          business models may offer
              FY10-14 CAGR 5%       State and Local
                                                          green IT, & device energy         greatest upside
                                                          mgmt

                                                        High growth, large market          Some ‘reputational’
Smart Power   FY10 Market Size      Department of       with increasing policy              disadvantage to defense
                   $10B              State               significance                        contractors
                                    DOD                Emerging market of strategic       Challenging business
              FY10-14 CAGR 15%      USAID               import with limited business        models as groups emerge
                                                         sophistication                      from not-for-profit mentality
                                    NGOs
                                                                                                           THE AVASCENT GROUP | 10
The Cyber market is often ill-defined to include many traditional IT functions, but
nevertheless is a $12B market that is projected to grow at more than 8 percent

     Cyber Adjacent Market Profile

     Cyber Investments                                                       Competitive Environment
                                                                             Integrators have generally employed inorganic growth
                                                                               strategies to build deep portfolios of cyber offerings
      IT                                                       RF
      Services                                 Electronic      Warfighting   Integrated Solutions
                                               Warfare         Systems
                     IT Security
                                         Command &
            Network                      Control  Information
                                                  Operations                 Niche Technology Providers
            Configuration

                                                   RF
             Network                               Collection
             Operations                 Computer
             Centers                    Network
                                        Attack                                OCI Issues
                                                   ISR
                             Computer
            Identity         Network
            Management       Defense
                                          Computer
                                          Network
                                          Exploitation
                                                            Foreign          Opportunity Areas
                 Access                                     Signals
                 Controls                                   Intelligence      The Comprehensive National Cyber Security
                                                            Collection
                                           Geospatial
                                                                               (CNCI) introduced $17B in new cyber
                                           Information                         development funding over FY09-13
                                           Systems
                                                                              $6.6B DIA Solution for the Information
                               National
                               Intelligence
                                                                               Technology (SITE) IDIQ is likely to have a large
                               Systems                                         cyber component



                                                                                                                                 THE AVASCENT GROUP | 11
Federal Health IT represents a potential growth alternative as customers tackle new
    policies, data integration/sharing issues and EHR migration

             Healthcare IT Adjacent Market Profile

              Market Details
                Customers




                                        DoD:                            Veterans Affairs:                HHS:               Commercial, S&L
                                        $1,040M                         $916M                            $1,557M            (e.g. Hospitals, Labs)

                               Health IT
                               • Patient Management –
                                                                        Public Health
                                                                                                  Life Sciences
                Capabilities




                                 Clinical & Non-Clinical                 • Logistics & Supply                                  Pharma
                               • Business Solutions                        Chain                   • Program Management
                                                                         • Program Management        & Research Support –      • Quality Assurance
                               • IT Infrastructure
                                                                           & Research Support –      Life Sciences             • Program Management
                               • Logistics & Supply Chain
                                                                           Public Health           • Quality Assurance           & Research Support –
                                                                                                                                 Pharma

              Competitive Environment                                                        Opportunity Areas
              Successful players in the Health IT domain have tended to                       IDIQ contract vehicle turnover in FY10-11
               combine organic growth with targeted acquisitions and
               have usually focused on just one or two customers                              Modernization of IT infrastructure
                                              Northrop’s strategy has been primarily          Major system redesign
                                              acquisitive and targeted at MHS
                                                                                              Data interoperability
                                              SAIC’s position is based on its long history
                                              with massive programs at MHS and NCI            Increasing EHR adoption
                                              SRA’s strategy has been organic growth of       Some stimulus opportunities
                                              its NIH account and an acquisition targeted
                                              at CDC and NIH




*All budget numbers based on the FY08 OMB IT Budget                                                                                            THE AVASCENT GROUP | 12
Energy has become a focus for this administration; opportunities are likely to be split
between facilities modernization and device-focused energy enhancements

       Energy and Environment Adjacent Market Profile

      Energy Market Value Chain/Life Cycle


                                                                                                  Waste
          Resource        Resource       Power                                                                    Waste to
                                                         Distribution    Storage     Consumers    Disposal &
          Extraction      Refining       Generation                                                               Energy
                                                                                                  Remediation



                                                          Energy Management
                                                                                   Micro
                                                          Macro


      Competitive Environment                                           Opportunity Areas
                                                                         Energy management, a service area that cuts
                                                                          across multiple segments of the energy value chain,
                                                                          offers the most opportunity
                                                                         DOE SmartGrid: $4.3B in stimulus funding to
                                                                          improve electric grid efficiency/reliability
                                                                         Subcontract opportunities under DOE’s $80B
                                                                          Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) to
                                                                          improve energy efficiency at federal facilities
      Raytheon made a strategic choice to exit the energy
      business and sold off its relevant intellectual property           Cyber security will rise in importance as energy
                                                                          systems adopt networked solutions



                                                                                                                      THE AVASCENT GROUP | 13
Smart Power holds potential as the USG adopts policies that aim to boost US influence
          abroad by employing means other than traditional military power


                    Smart Power Adjacent Market Profile
                            Operating Environment
                            Instability               Failing State             Post-Conflict/Stabilization
Prescription




               Military            Law              Humanitarian   Health          Reconstruction    Education       Democratization
               Assistance          Enforcement/     Assistance/
                                   Counter-
                                   Counter-         Disaster
Policy




                                   Narcotics        Relief

                                                    Development & Humanitarian Aid
                Logistics
                Program Management
Functional




                Training                                      Training
Activities




                Provision of Equipment &
                Assets
                International Organizations & NGO Support (including Peacekeeping)

               Competitive Environment                                      Opportunity Areas
                                                                            • Department of State and USAID are the primary
                                                                              funders of smart power and account for nearly 70%
                                                                              of the total market (FY09 total $60B)
                                                                            • Department of Defense dedicates nearly $10B
                                                                              (FY09) to smart power initiatives
                                                                            • The Department of Treasury and Department of
                                                                              Agriculture together make up nearly 4% of the total,
                                                                              with contributions in technical assistance, debt
                                                                              restructuring, and education activities
                                                                                                                        THE AVASCENT GROUP | 14
Phase 3 – Targeted Adjacency Assessment – The internal and external assessments in
Phases 1 and 2 will yield an understanding of current adjacent market positioning and best
entry points – e.g. grow organically, partner, acquire and will help to define achievable goals
                  Cyber Market Case Study
                                                                                                                                                                                              NG
                                                        • Where do you fit and where do you want to be?
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Integrators
                                        High




                                                        • Gov’t IT and C4I Generalists provide the broadest level                         Multi-Service                           GD
                                                                                                                                                                                              LM
                                                                                                                                             Providers
                                                          of competition with activities that span all Federal                                                  BAH                       Raytheon
                                                          customer communities                                                                                             SAIC
   Breadth of Cyber / IT Capabilities




                                                        • Commercially-focused firms offer needed technology,                                                            ManTech          CACI
                                                          but full-commitment to Federal customers is                                                         BAE
                                                          questionable                                                                                                           ITT

                                                        • Cyber specialists serve as technology incubators and                                                                                     CSC
                                                                                                                                                                          L-3
                                                          have historically represented key acquisition targets                                                                     QinetiQ

                                                                                                                                                                                               Serco
                                                                                                                                                             Boeing               SRA

                                                                                                                 HP/
                                                                                                                EDS                                          Thales /
                                                          Computer               IBM                                                                         Ncipher
                                                         Associates
                                                                                                                                                                                 Harris
                                                                                                                                                             Wyle
                                                            Symantec                                                                                                    MacAulay-Brown
                                               McAfee                                                                                                               GAITS                                 NCI
                                                            Cisco                                                                          Trusted Computer
                                                                             SafeNet         Blue Coat            Intelligent                                         Endace
                                                 DeepNines                  NuBridges      Smartronix             Decisions                                                                          ProObject
                                        Low




                                                                                                                                         New World Apps             Arbor
                                                                                                        Allot       NuParadigm
                                                    Global Velocity                                                  Core Security                  TechUSA              Bivio         TecSec
                                                                 Entrust, Inc.     WebSense         DynTek
                                                                                                                     Technologies       IOactive                        Npulse             KCG           Syprus
                                                                                      Net Witness                                                   Galois
                                                     SecureWorks                                     Core     Cloudshield      F5         Layer 7                                             Omen         SNI

                                                   0%                                                                                                                                                       100%
                                                                                            Market Positioning ( % Government Focus)
                                                                                                         = Commercially-focused            = Gov’t IT & C4I Generalists
                                                  = <$50M                 = $250M - $1B
                                                                                                         = Cyber Specialists
                                                  = $50M - $250M          = >$1B
                                                                                                         (based on primary offerings)

                                                                                                                                                                                                   THE AVASCENT GROUP | 15
Final considerations


   While the overall defense budges will be leveling-off, certain adjacent markets
    represent real growth and scale


   A phased market entry approach to adjacent markets maximizes opportunity and
    minimizes risk


   Short-commutes to adjacent markets by customer or capability but not both
    simultaneously are typically easier to achieve


   Leading growth companies in these adjacent markets (e.g. cyber) have strong
    interest from many suitors – acquiring at higher multiples can be expected


   Corporate growth and margin targets can be at odds with the higher risk/rewards
    profile of entering adjacent markets – often there is a trade-off


   There is a distinction between launching an initiative and brand awareness in
    adjacent markets vs. growing a business of scale – recognize which is the focus

                                                                               THE AVASCENT GROUP | 16
Avascent assists corporate clients to chart paths to growth across the full spectrum of
government missions and domains


  Public Mission Expertise                                                                                     Government Domains




                           Homeland
                                                  Space              Public Safety        Infrastructure          Defense &             Federal
      National             Security &
                                               Exploration &            & Law                    &               Intelligence           Civilian
      Security              Disaster
                                                Exploitation         Enforcement          Transportation          Agencies             Agencies
                           Response

    Ground, naval, air   Border, port ,        Military, civil and   Law enforcement      Construction,         US Army, Navy,      US federal civil
    and joint military   aviation, physical    commercial space      and public safety    engineering and       Air Force and       agencies and
    forces and           and cyber security;   operations,           equipment            operations of         joint agencies      programs
    intelligence         domestic and          systems and           systems,             major facilities,     and intelligence
    operations           international         supporting ground     programs and         and transportation    agencies
                         disaster response     infrastructure        services             infrastructure




                                                                         Global            Government
     Aviation &          Health Care &           Energy &                                                       State & Local
                                                                     Development            Business                                International
     Aerospace           Life Sciences          Environment                                                     Governments
                                                                     & Stabilization        Systems


   Aviation               Military, veteran    Generation,           Stabilization, aid   Business support     US state and local   Governments,
   infrastructure and     and public health    distribution and      and development      systems and          government           NGOs, and major
   commercial sector      systems and          conservation;         support              processes across     entities             multinationals
   equipment and          services and life    environmental                              all levels of                             serving public
   MRO services           sciences             monitoring &                               government                                sector needs
                          applications         protection                                                                           around the world


                                                                                                                                        THE AVASCENT GROUP | 17
Our role is to help companies successfully navigate a high stakes market characterized by
constant change, customer complexity, and stiff competition

 Government Market Challenges                                                   How Avascent Can Help
 Changing Mission Needs                                             Sophisticated Fact-Based Analysis
                                                                                  Fact-
    Multitude of forces (political, budgetary,       Superior         Anticipate government needs and define
     technological, bureaucratic, international)                        the emerging opportunity landscape
     constantly shape and reshape demand             Opportunity       Isolate the best growth opportunities for
    Long time horizons constantly buffeted by        Discovery         your company
     near-term needs and forces


 Complex Customer Requirements                                      Strategic Insight
    Demanding customers with stringent                New             Engineer innovative solutions that address
     performance, schedule, and cost requirements    Business           customer needs and deliver business
     that often require custom solutions                                results
                                                     Revenue
    Complex and often opaque buying processes                         Partnership strategies that secure a
     with many participants and shifting criteria
                                                     Streams            strategic advantage over competitors


 Competitive, High Stakes Environment                               Pragmatic solutions
   Intense market driven by high stakes/high risk   Investment         Fact-based business cases with
                                                                         Fact-
    competitions and dominance of single buyers      Confidence          comprehensive risk/return evaluation
   Need to invest, partner, and innovate to         & Reduced          Contract capture support
    succeed and secure long-term revenue flows                          On-going support post-capture to assure
                                                        Risk             On-                post-
                                                                         value is delivered


     Avascent Client Perspective:

             “The value I receive from Avascent is critical to my firm achieving our objectives. The
          Avascent team is a true partner and allows me and my team to tackle complex problems and
                                  produce meaningful and actionable results.”
                                                                                                      THE AVASCENT GROUP | 18
We help clients detect emerging opportunities then engineer winning growth strategies to
capture value for their business

                                              Questions we help clients address

                                                        Engineer Business
     Anticipate Opportunities                                                                       Capture Business Value
                                                            Strategies

                              Define
                                                      Design             Develop Fact-
                                                                                 Fact-            Execute Value           Deliver
   Detect Mission           Business
                                                     Business                Based                  Capture              Business
   & Value Shifts            Growth
                                                     Strategy            Business Case              Strategy              Results
                           Opportunities

 How will changes in    What are the             Organic Growth Challenges
 the macro              emerging or
 environment to         unexploited            Who are the target     What is the upside        What are the most    How do we insure
 reshape the public     opportunities in       customers? What        of capturing the          important customer   effective
 sector priorities?     my current and         are their key needs/   opportunity?              requirements?        execution?
                        adjacent markets?      preferences?
 How are emerging                                                     What risk                 What risk            What are the
 missions driving       Who are the            What business          scenarios do we           scenarios do we      appropriate
 shifts in policy       competitors in this    models should we       need to consider?         need to consider?    performance
 priorities & budget    space? Can we          consider?                                                             milestones and
 resources?             build a competitive                           What investment,          What investment,     metrics?
                        advantage?             How do we position     competencies,             competencies,
 How will changes                              for success?           organizational            organizational       What systems and
 in regulations,        What capabilities      Pricing? Offering?     systems do we             systems do we        processes need to
 technology or          and resources are      Operations?            need?                     need?                be put in place?
 customer needs         required to address
 reshape the market     opportunities?           Inorganic Growth Challenges
 environment?
                        How attractive are      How might an          Will the target fulfill   How should we        How do we know
 What risks, issues     the opportunities       acquisition best      expectations              integrate target?    that we are
 & opportunities do     (risk/reward            position us? Which    regarding growth,         What actions do we   capturing the
 these mission &        profile)? Are they      targets should we     margin & strategic        need to capitalize   synergies we
 value shifts create?   aligned with goals?     pursue?               positioning?              on acquisition?      expect?

                                                                                                                          THE AVASCENT GROUP | 19

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Expanding into Adjacent Markets (Cyber, Energy, Smart Power, Health IT) - Wharton Aerospace & Defense Conference

  • 1. January 2010 Adjacent Market Strategy Development & Execution Prepared for
  • 2. This breakout session on adjacent markets will focus on the following…  Key questions A&D leaders are asking about adjacent markets today  Overview of a variety of adjacent market strategies that have been employed previously by A&D firms  Methodology for maximizing success when entering adjacent markets  Analysis of several high visibility adjacent markets of interest to the A&D community – Cyber – Health IT – Energy & Environmental – Smart power THE AVASCENT GROUP | 2
  • 3. We are the leading independent management consulting firm serving companies dedicated to meeting the most demanding government challenges 20+ Years of experience (formerly DFI Corporate Services) Experienced, cross-functional team of over 50 professionals Worldwide network of subject and regional experts We bring: Pragmatic Growth Solutions Informed Strategic Insight Sophisticated Fact-Based Analysis Fact- To help our clients conceive, develop and execute Business Growth Strategies to address Complex Public Sector Needs THE AVASCENT GROUP | 3
  • 4. The slowdown in the defense spending growth cycle naturally raises cause for concern and scrutiny at senior levels throughout the A&D industry National Security Macrotrend Budgetary Risk Analysis DoD Budget, 1948-2010 Key Market Issues Including Supplementals, Real $ 800 • OPTEMPO in Iraq and Afghanistan has driven 700 defense spending to unprecedented levels 600 • Total topline DoD $B spending is expected to 500 decline in the next few years, but historical 400 peacetime funding will still be substantial 300 • Many of the cuts have already been made in the 200 procurement arena, targeting under 100 performing and non- strategic programs 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 • R&D remains steady as well as a variety of support service functions RDT&E Military Personnel Other Procurement Operations & Maintenance (particularly white collar) Source: DoD Greenbook, Avascent Analysis THE AVASCENT GROUP | 4
  • 5. When recent historic corporate growth objectives become increasingly difficult to attain, adjacent markets gain greater visibility Paths to Growth Corporate Objective 8-10% growth* Organic Inorganic Growth Growth Gain share from Grow new Fill gaps or gain customer Purchase new competitors capabilities access capabilities Core Adjacent New Markets Markets Markets * Assumption based on recent past performance THE AVASCENT GROUP | 5
  • 6. As a result, these types of questions about adjacent markets are being heard frequently by Boards, C level leaders, and heads of strategy and corporate development Key Questions “My core market is projected to be stagnant or declining in the near to medium term after years of robust growth… should my company enter new markets or try to compete more aggressively in the core?” “If my company enters an adjacent market, how can adjacent markets be compared?” “How can a company leverage its capabilities and customers into new markets – and can it be done organically or through acquisition?” “Will a major play into an adjacent market be positive in the near to medium term for creating shareholder value given current growth and margin expectations?” “What types of partners and/or acquisition targets should my company be familiar with as we look to enter these new markets?” “Does my company need to hire people with non-traditional backgrounds and expertise in these new markets in order to be successful?” “My competitor just stood up a (cyber, smart power, health IT, energy) organization, should I be concerned and should I stand one up as well?” THE AVASCENT GROUP | 6
  • 7. Aerospace & Defense companies large and small have had the entire gamut of results when entering adjacent markets over the last decade Company Adjacent Market Strategy Results Lesson Learned Fortune 100 Launch of telecom business unit during $1.5B and exit from market Anticipated market Defense and period of rapid growth in IT/Telecom demand did not Aerospace markets by building on deep IT expertise materialize Company Fortune 100 Launch of high-speed Internet service Exited market due to lack Anticipated market for travelers worldwide by leveraging of demand demand did not Defense and ground and data stations materialize Aerospace Company Developed strategy to improve oil Sold capability to oil & gas Challenge to monetize Fortune 100 exploration using its own deep defense industry leader non-core business Defense and technology expertise and through a Aerospace partner’s capabilities Company Expanded into energy market to service Stand-alone business Near term results in Multi- Multi-billion oil & gas firms by using market leading dedicated to Energy adjacent markets may manufacturing capabilities markets under-perform even when Dollar Aerospace long term strategy sound company Paid significant multiple to acquire cyber Formed the core of the Short-commute adjacency Fortune 100 company’s market leading expansions are lower risk business that had leading edge Defense and technology and intelligence community cyber business Aerospace relationships Company Expansion into security marketplace via Multi-billion dollar Understanding core Fortune 50 multiple acquisitions with the goal of business today and a core competencies leads to Defense & corporate business entry into optimal establishing market leadership Industrial adjacencies Company THE AVASCENT GROUP | 7
  • 8. Given this uncertainty around entering adjacent markets, companies can reduce risk and maximize opportunity through a phased market targeting process Identifying Adjacent Markets Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Competency / Customer General Market Targeted Adjacency Match – Inside-Out Attractiveness - Outside-In Assessment Can a company leverage its How attractive is the What are the entry points core competencies and market? and opportunities for a customer relationships? company in the market? • Screen of adjacent • Screen based on overall • Final set of targeted horizontal and vertical market attractiveness adjacencies for a company markets based on a • Representative markets company’s core ~ 20 Markets could include: competencies and • Examination of market to customers include: • Cyber • Examination would include: • Health • Customer • Customer relationships • Energy • Competitor • Smart Power • Technical/ • Supplier ~ 20 Markets manufacturing capabilities • Market growth • Assessment of optimal • Culture • Market size market entry points THE AVASCENT GROUP | 8
  • 9. Phase 1: Inside-Out - When looking to expand into adjacent markets, “short commutes” by either customer or capability but not both simultaneously tend to be easier to achieve  Maintain – Maintain existing customer base and Growth Map technology focus – Organic Focus NEW  Extend: New Capability, Current Customer Extend Big Bang – Expanding service offerings to existing CUSTOMERS customer groups offers growth path – Organic or Inorganic  Extend: Current Capability, New Customer – Likewise, offering current capabilities to CURRENT new customer groups is a logical adjacency- if existing technology supports Maintain Extend easy transfer – Organic or Inorganic CURRENT NEW  “Big Bang”: New Capability, New Customer CAPABILITIES – Expanding both capabilities offered and customers served would indicate a significant change of direction - likely driven by inorganic growth – Inorganic Focus THE AVASCENT GROUP | 9
  • 10. Phase 2: Outside-In – General Market Attractiveness Evaluation Market Potential Relevant Customers Analysis Strategic Implications  Aggressive funding and  Many companies are more  Intelligence stakeholder battle creates focused on general network IT Cyber FY10 Market Size Community near-term opportunities development and $12B  DHS  Ill-defined programs implementation and rebranded as Cyber FY10-14 CAGR 8%  DOD outside of IC create challenges  Customer positioning key to long-term viability (NSA)  Focus on EHR, network  New focus, but not new  Military Health Healthcare FY10 Market Size modernization, and market; many firms have System application development Information $10B already placed bets, with Technology  VA are critical remaining targets often, FY10-14 CAGR 5%  HHS  Contract vehicle less value-additive positioning is key for future  Contract vehicle  Social Security success positioning is critical Administration  Near-term ARRA funding  Defining the addressable Energy and  Dept of Energy creates gap fill market and relative FY08 Market Size Environment  NOAA  Better funded market sub- positioning is key $7B - $50B  GSA segments are evolutionary,  Firms with flexible e.g. green buildings and business models may offer FY10-14 CAGR 5%  State and Local green IT, & device energy greatest upside mgmt  High growth, large market  Some ‘reputational’ Smart Power FY10 Market Size  Department of with increasing policy disadvantage to defense $10B State significance contractors  DOD  Emerging market of strategic  Challenging business FY10-14 CAGR 15%  USAID import with limited business models as groups emerge sophistication from not-for-profit mentality  NGOs THE AVASCENT GROUP | 10
  • 11. The Cyber market is often ill-defined to include many traditional IT functions, but nevertheless is a $12B market that is projected to grow at more than 8 percent Cyber Adjacent Market Profile Cyber Investments Competitive Environment Integrators have generally employed inorganic growth strategies to build deep portfolios of cyber offerings IT RF Services Electronic Warfighting Integrated Solutions Warfare Systems IT Security Command & Network Control Information Operations Niche Technology Providers Configuration RF Network Collection Operations Computer Centers Network Attack OCI Issues ISR Computer Identity Network Management Defense Computer Network Exploitation Foreign Opportunity Areas Access Signals Controls Intelligence  The Comprehensive National Cyber Security Collection Geospatial (CNCI) introduced $17B in new cyber Information development funding over FY09-13 Systems  $6.6B DIA Solution for the Information National Intelligence Technology (SITE) IDIQ is likely to have a large Systems cyber component THE AVASCENT GROUP | 11
  • 12. Federal Health IT represents a potential growth alternative as customers tackle new policies, data integration/sharing issues and EHR migration Healthcare IT Adjacent Market Profile Market Details Customers DoD: Veterans Affairs: HHS: Commercial, S&L $1,040M $916M $1,557M (e.g. Hospitals, Labs) Health IT • Patient Management – Public Health Life Sciences Capabilities Clinical & Non-Clinical • Logistics & Supply Pharma • Business Solutions Chain • Program Management • Program Management & Research Support – • Quality Assurance • IT Infrastructure & Research Support – Life Sciences • Program Management • Logistics & Supply Chain Public Health • Quality Assurance & Research Support – Pharma Competitive Environment Opportunity Areas Successful players in the Health IT domain have tended to  IDIQ contract vehicle turnover in FY10-11 combine organic growth with targeted acquisitions and have usually focused on just one or two customers  Modernization of IT infrastructure Northrop’s strategy has been primarily  Major system redesign acquisitive and targeted at MHS  Data interoperability SAIC’s position is based on its long history with massive programs at MHS and NCI  Increasing EHR adoption SRA’s strategy has been organic growth of  Some stimulus opportunities its NIH account and an acquisition targeted at CDC and NIH *All budget numbers based on the FY08 OMB IT Budget THE AVASCENT GROUP | 12
  • 13. Energy has become a focus for this administration; opportunities are likely to be split between facilities modernization and device-focused energy enhancements Energy and Environment Adjacent Market Profile Energy Market Value Chain/Life Cycle Waste Resource Resource Power Waste to Distribution Storage Consumers Disposal & Extraction Refining Generation Energy Remediation Energy Management Micro Macro Competitive Environment Opportunity Areas  Energy management, a service area that cuts across multiple segments of the energy value chain, offers the most opportunity  DOE SmartGrid: $4.3B in stimulus funding to improve electric grid efficiency/reliability  Subcontract opportunities under DOE’s $80B Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) to improve energy efficiency at federal facilities Raytheon made a strategic choice to exit the energy business and sold off its relevant intellectual property  Cyber security will rise in importance as energy systems adopt networked solutions THE AVASCENT GROUP | 13
  • 14. Smart Power holds potential as the USG adopts policies that aim to boost US influence abroad by employing means other than traditional military power Smart Power Adjacent Market Profile Operating Environment Instability Failing State Post-Conflict/Stabilization Prescription Military Law Humanitarian Health Reconstruction Education Democratization Assistance Enforcement/ Assistance/ Counter- Counter- Disaster Policy Narcotics Relief Development & Humanitarian Aid Logistics Program Management Functional Training Training Activities Provision of Equipment & Assets International Organizations & NGO Support (including Peacekeeping) Competitive Environment Opportunity Areas • Department of State and USAID are the primary funders of smart power and account for nearly 70% of the total market (FY09 total $60B) • Department of Defense dedicates nearly $10B (FY09) to smart power initiatives • The Department of Treasury and Department of Agriculture together make up nearly 4% of the total, with contributions in technical assistance, debt restructuring, and education activities THE AVASCENT GROUP | 14
  • 15. Phase 3 – Targeted Adjacency Assessment – The internal and external assessments in Phases 1 and 2 will yield an understanding of current adjacent market positioning and best entry points – e.g. grow organically, partner, acquire and will help to define achievable goals Cyber Market Case Study NG • Where do you fit and where do you want to be? Integrators High • Gov’t IT and C4I Generalists provide the broadest level Multi-Service GD LM Providers of competition with activities that span all Federal BAH Raytheon customer communities SAIC Breadth of Cyber / IT Capabilities • Commercially-focused firms offer needed technology, ManTech CACI but full-commitment to Federal customers is BAE questionable ITT • Cyber specialists serve as technology incubators and CSC L-3 have historically represented key acquisition targets QinetiQ Serco Boeing SRA HP/ EDS Thales / Computer IBM Ncipher Associates Harris Wyle Symantec MacAulay-Brown McAfee GAITS NCI Cisco Trusted Computer SafeNet Blue Coat Intelligent Endace DeepNines NuBridges Smartronix Decisions ProObject Low New World Apps Arbor Allot NuParadigm Global Velocity Core Security TechUSA Bivio TecSec Entrust, Inc. WebSense DynTek Technologies IOactive Npulse KCG Syprus Net Witness Galois SecureWorks Core Cloudshield F5 Layer 7 Omen SNI 0% 100% Market Positioning ( % Government Focus) = Commercially-focused = Gov’t IT & C4I Generalists = <$50M = $250M - $1B = Cyber Specialists = $50M - $250M = >$1B (based on primary offerings) THE AVASCENT GROUP | 15
  • 16. Final considerations  While the overall defense budges will be leveling-off, certain adjacent markets represent real growth and scale  A phased market entry approach to adjacent markets maximizes opportunity and minimizes risk  Short-commutes to adjacent markets by customer or capability but not both simultaneously are typically easier to achieve  Leading growth companies in these adjacent markets (e.g. cyber) have strong interest from many suitors – acquiring at higher multiples can be expected  Corporate growth and margin targets can be at odds with the higher risk/rewards profile of entering adjacent markets – often there is a trade-off  There is a distinction between launching an initiative and brand awareness in adjacent markets vs. growing a business of scale – recognize which is the focus THE AVASCENT GROUP | 16
  • 17. Avascent assists corporate clients to chart paths to growth across the full spectrum of government missions and domains Public Mission Expertise Government Domains Homeland Space Public Safety Infrastructure Defense & Federal National Security & Exploration & & Law & Intelligence Civilian Security Disaster Exploitation Enforcement Transportation Agencies Agencies Response Ground, naval, air Border, port , Military, civil and Law enforcement Construction, US Army, Navy, US federal civil and joint military aviation, physical commercial space and public safety engineering and Air Force and agencies and forces and and cyber security; operations, equipment operations of joint agencies programs intelligence domestic and systems and systems, major facilities, and intelligence operations international supporting ground programs and and transportation agencies disaster response infrastructure services infrastructure Global Government Aviation & Health Care & Energy & State & Local Development Business International Aerospace Life Sciences Environment Governments & Stabilization Systems Aviation Military, veteran Generation, Stabilization, aid Business support US state and local Governments, infrastructure and and public health distribution and and development systems and government NGOs, and major commercial sector systems and conservation; support processes across entities multinationals equipment and services and life environmental all levels of serving public MRO services sciences monitoring & government sector needs applications protection around the world THE AVASCENT GROUP | 17
  • 18. Our role is to help companies successfully navigate a high stakes market characterized by constant change, customer complexity, and stiff competition Government Market Challenges How Avascent Can Help Changing Mission Needs Sophisticated Fact-Based Analysis Fact-  Multitude of forces (political, budgetary, Superior  Anticipate government needs and define technological, bureaucratic, international) the emerging opportunity landscape constantly shape and reshape demand Opportunity  Isolate the best growth opportunities for  Long time horizons constantly buffeted by Discovery your company near-term needs and forces Complex Customer Requirements Strategic Insight  Demanding customers with stringent New  Engineer innovative solutions that address performance, schedule, and cost requirements Business customer needs and deliver business that often require custom solutions results Revenue  Complex and often opaque buying processes  Partnership strategies that secure a with many participants and shifting criteria Streams strategic advantage over competitors Competitive, High Stakes Environment Pragmatic solutions  Intense market driven by high stakes/high risk Investment  Fact-based business cases with Fact- competitions and dominance of single buyers Confidence comprehensive risk/return evaluation  Need to invest, partner, and innovate to & Reduced  Contract capture support succeed and secure long-term revenue flows  On-going support post-capture to assure Risk On- post- value is delivered Avascent Client Perspective: “The value I receive from Avascent is critical to my firm achieving our objectives. The Avascent team is a true partner and allows me and my team to tackle complex problems and produce meaningful and actionable results.” THE AVASCENT GROUP | 18
  • 19. We help clients detect emerging opportunities then engineer winning growth strategies to capture value for their business Questions we help clients address Engineer Business Anticipate Opportunities Capture Business Value Strategies Define Design Develop Fact- Fact- Execute Value Deliver Detect Mission Business Business Based Capture Business & Value Shifts Growth Strategy Business Case Strategy Results Opportunities How will changes in What are the Organic Growth Challenges the macro emerging or environment to unexploited Who are the target What is the upside What are the most How do we insure reshape the public opportunities in customers? What of capturing the important customer effective sector priorities? my current and are their key needs/ opportunity? requirements? execution? adjacent markets? preferences? How are emerging What risk What risk What are the missions driving Who are the What business scenarios do we scenarios do we appropriate shifts in policy competitors in this models should we need to consider? need to consider? performance priorities & budget space? Can we consider? milestones and resources? build a competitive What investment, What investment, metrics? advantage? How do we position competencies, competencies, How will changes for success? organizational organizational What systems and in regulations, What capabilities Pricing? Offering? systems do we systems do we processes need to technology or and resources are Operations? need? need? be put in place? customer needs required to address reshape the market opportunities? Inorganic Growth Challenges environment? How attractive are How might an Will the target fulfill How should we How do we know What risks, issues the opportunities acquisition best expectations integrate target? that we are & opportunities do (risk/reward position us? Which regarding growth, What actions do we capturing the these mission & profile)? Are they targets should we margin & strategic need to capitalize synergies we value shifts create? aligned with goals? pursue? positioning? on acquisition? expect? THE AVASCENT GROUP | 19