Establishing a shared understanding of the business problem across business, IT and analytics teams is critical for successful predictive analytics projects. Recently decision modeling has begun to be adopted as a way to specify business requirements for predictive analytics projects. This session will introduce decision modeling and describe how it helps predictive analytics practitioners. The value of the technique will be illustrated with both experience working with real-world projects and of using the approach to teach students of analytics.

1. Decision Modeling for
Predictive Analytic
Projects
JamesTaylor
CEO
Steve Knode
Program Director
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

2. Master of Science in Data Analytics (MSDA)
 36 Graduate credits (six courses)
 Foundations & Predictive Analytics certificate options
 MBA Option (18 more credits)
 Integration of analytics and decision-making
 Competency-based courses
 Entirely online classes
 More information:
http://www.umuc.edu/academic-programs/masters-
degrees/data-analytics.cfm
University of Maryland University College (UMUC)
© Steve Knode, 2015

3. Master of Science in Data Analytics (MSDA)
 Data630 – Decision management systems
 Emphasis on Tom Davenport approach from
“Keeping up with the quants”
 Three steps:
 Frame the problem
 Solve the problem
 Communicate and act on the results
 DecisionsFirst
 Essential software for “framing” aspect
 Significant contributor to “communicating” aspect
 Used by students for team and individual assignments
University of Maryland University College (UMUC)
Davenport, T. H., & Kim, J. (2013). Why everyone needs analytical skills. Keeping up with the quants
your guide to understanding and using analytics (). Boston, Massachusetts: Harvard Business Press. © Steve Knode, 2015

4. How does the use of “framing”
improve/alter decision making?
Helps move the organizational culture from:
“BOGGSAT”
(Bunch of Guys and Gals Sitting Around Together)
To: evidence-based decision making!
“If I were given one hour to save the
planet, I would spend 59 minutes defining
the problem and one minute resolving it,”
Albert Einstein
Guszcza, J., & Lucker, J. (2012). A delicate balance: Organizational barriers to evidence-based management.
Deloitte Review, (10), http://dupress.com/articles/a-delicate-balance-organizational-barriers-to-evidence-based-management/?
© Steve Knode, 2015

5. How does the use of “framing”
improve/alter decision making?
 Provides “structure” (who, what, how, when)
 Provides “transparency” of decision process
 Promotes “buy in”
 Fosters innovation
 Standardizes approach to decision making
 Provides an audit trail for decisions
 Improves/changes the business model
© Steve Knode, 2015

6. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 5
From Decision To Data
Decision
Analytic
Insight
Data
…not the other way
around
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

7. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 6
Workflow Thinking in BI
Identifying decisions in workflows does not define
decision making
Workflows show
When decisions are made
Who makes decisions
What information they use
What the consequences
are
Workflow doesn’t show
HOW
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

8. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 7
Decision AND Workflow Thinking
Explicitly shows
Information used
Questions answered
Policies, regulations used
Role of analytics
Adding Decision Modeling explains HOW a
decision is made
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

9. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 8
Decision Modeling and Notation (DMN)
“… provide a common notation that is readily understandable by
all business users... DMN creates a standardized bridge for the gap
between the business decision design and decision
implementation.”
Use Cases
Modeling Human Decision-making
Modeling Requirements for automated Decision-making
Implementing automated Decision-making
OMG Specification – a peer to BPMN
Decision Management Solutions, IBM, Oracle,TIBCO, FICO, Escape
Velocity, KUL, Model Systems, KPI,Visumpoint
Approved. Finalization expected Q1 2015
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

10. Source:DecisionsFirst Modeler and UMUC
Example: Hold or sell distressed mortgage
Information
Knowledge
Decision
Precise
Definition
Link to analytic
Identify decision to be
improved
Uses a non-technical
notation
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

11. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 10
An Advanced Analytic Methodology
CRISP-DM
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

12. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 11
Business Case and Monitoring
Analytic
Decisions KPIs
Processes
and Systems
Organizations
Monitoring
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

13. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 12
Lessons Learned
Decision Models frame and
communicate analytic requirements
Decision Models can be shared
between team members
How the analytic will add value is
clear
The requirements for deployment
and usage are clear
@jamet123 #decisionmgt

14. Thank You
JamesTaylor
james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com
@jamet123 #decisionmgt
Steve Knode
steve.knode@umuc.edu
decisionsfirst.com

15. Back-up Slides

16. Master of Science in Data Analytics (MSDA)
 Courses: (6 graduate credits each)
 Data610 – Datamining
 Data620 – Data Management and Visualization
 Data630 – Decision Management Systems
 Data640 – Predictive Modeling
 Data650 – Big Data Analytics
 Data660 – Data Analytics Practicum
University of Maryland University College (UMUC)
More questions: steve.knode@umuc.edu or Dr. Rand Ford, rand.ford@umuc.edu
© Steve Knode, 2015

17. Decision Traps
Russo, J., & Schoemaker, P. (1989). Decision Traps. New York: Simon & Schuster. © Steve Knode, 2015

18. Decision Traps
Russo, J., & Schoemaker, P. (1989). Decision Traps. New York: Simon & Schuster. © Steve Knode, 2015

19. DecisionsFirst Modeler
Social, collaborative, cloud-based Decision Management
modeling software that puts decisions at the heart of your
business architecture, building better requirements and
driving successful business rules implementations
18©2015 Decision Management Solutions

20. Determine call center staffing
Source: DecisionsFirst Modeler and UMUC

21. Estimate days until grant funding
Source: DecisionsFirst Modeler and UMUC

22. Tax return audit recommendation
Source: DecisionsFirst Modeler and UMUC