BlindSpot Prince's Foundation net-positive circular economy

www.blindspot.org.uk
1

The
Prince’s
Founda:on

Masters
in
Sustainable
Urbanism
Group

A
net-‐posi+ve
world?

Sept
2013

James
Greyson

BlindSpot
Think
Tank

2

AGer
40
years
of
global
problem
solving
why
are
problems
overall

worse?

Can
we
map
the
solu:on
space
and
ﬁnd
a
new
category
of
solu:ons?

What
is
posi:ve
development?
How
to
get
net
posi:ve
impacts?

Is
it
possible
to
reverse
intractable
problems?

Keywords:
Biochar,
precycling,
circular
economy,
global
security,
whole

system
policy
switches

A
net-‐posi:ve
world?

Road
to
Rio+20
(ISCIENCES,
L.L.C.)

1972 | 1982 | 1992 | 2002 | 2012
See
also:

Sustainable
Development
Timelines,
Stakeholder

Forum

2012
Rio de Janeiro
UN Conference on
the Human
Environment,
Earth Summit
1992
Rio de Janeiro
UN Conference on the
Human Environment,
Earth Summit
1972
Stockholm
UN Conference on
Sustainable
Development

Road
to
Rio+20
(ISCIENCES,
L.L.C.)

The
United
Na,ons
Conference
on
the
Human

Environment
in
Stockholm
put
environmental
issues
on

the
interna,onal
agenda
for
the
ﬁrst
,me.

The
Stockholm
Conference,
June
5-‐16,
1972
laid
the
groundwork

for
progress
in
the
environment
and
development.

One
important
outcome
from
Stockholm
was
the
crea,on
of
the

UN
Environment
Programme
(UNEP).

“Man
is
unlikely
to
succeed
in
managing
his
rela?onship
with
nature
unless
in
the

course
of
it
he
learns
to
manage
beBer
the
rela?ons
between
man
and
man.”
–

Maurice
Strong,
Secretary-‐General
of
the
Stockholm
Conference

Declara?on
of
the
UN
Conference
on
the
Human
Environment
hBp://www.unep.org/Documents.Mul?lingual/Default.asp?documen?d=97&ar?cleid=1503

Report
of
the
UN
Conference
on
the
Human
Environment
hBp://www.unep.org/Documents.Mul?lingual/Default.asp?documen?d=97

Maurice
Strong
(leG)
with
Conference
President

Ingemund
Bengtsson
(Credit:
UN
Photo)

Road
to
Rio+20
(ISCIENCES,
L.L.C.)

The
ﬁrst
global
gathering
on
sustainability
was
the
1992
Earth
Summit
in
Rio

de
Janeiro,
Brazil.

The
Earth
Summit
–
the
United
Na:ons
Conference
on
Environment
and
Development
(UNCED)
June

3-‐14
–
produced
Agenda
21,
a
blueprint
to
rethink
economic
growth,
to
advance
social
equity
and
to

ensure
environmental
protec,on.

More
than
178
Governments
adopted:
Agenda
21,
the

Rio
Declara:on
on
Environment
and
Development,
and
the

Statement
of
Principles
for
the
Sustainable
Management
of
Forests.

(Credit:
UN)

Two
important
legally
binding
agreements
were
opened
for
signatures:
the

United
Na:ons
Framework
Conven:on
on
Climate
Change
(UNFCCC),
to
reduce

greenhouse
gas
emissions;
and,
the
Conven:on
on
Biological
Diversity,
to
conserve

biodiversity.
The
Commission
on
Sustainable
Development
(CSD)
was
created
to
ensure

eﬀec:ve
follow-‐up
to
the
Summit.

Road
to
Rio+20
(ISCIENCES,
L.L.C.)

Rio+20,
the
United
Na,ons
Conference
on
Sustainable
Development
June
20-‐21,
2012
in
Rio
de

Janeiro,
Brazil,
was
intended
to
set
a
global
sustainability
agenda
for
the
coming
decade
.

Delegates
from
183
countries,
some
of

them
represented
by
their
presidents,

vice-‐presidents,
and
premiers,
along
with

more
than
50,000
par,cipants
from

governments,
the
private
sector,
non-‐
governmental
organiza:ons
(NGOs)
and

other
groups
agended.

The
Conference
was
promoted
as
“The
Future
We
Want.”
Updates
can
be
found
at

www.uncsd2012.org.

7

Steps
taken?

Credit: Simon Tong si.smugmug.com/
Steps taken?

Problems solved?

8

40
years
of
trends

•  World
popula:on

1972
3.8b,
1972
5.5b,
2012
7b

•  World
CO2
emissions
from
fuel
burning

1972
16.1b
t,
1992
22.3b
t,
2012
35.6b
t

•  Atmospheric
CO2
concentra:ons

1972
327ppm,
1992
356
ppm,
2012
394ppm

Some
of
the
trends:
loss
of
forest,
CO2
concentra:on,
species
ex:nc:ons,

motor
vehicles,
ozone
deple:on,
water
use,
paper
use,
Northern
hemisphere

average
temperature,
popula:on,
global
real
GPD.

1750-‐2000

New
Scien:st
magazine,
16
October
2008,
page
40-‐41

The
planet
crunch

If
we
do
not
change

direc:on,
we
may
end
up

where
we
are
heading.

Lao
Tzu

11

Runaway
climate
change

One
of
many
climate
feedbacks
is
methane

from
thawing
permafrost
and
sea-‐beds
in

the
Arc:c.

hgp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/
2007/10/071025174618.htm

Image:
Sergey
Zimov

“Arc:c
climate
dynamics
is
now
strongly

non-‐linear
behaviour
consistent
with

feedback-‐driven
ampliﬁca:on
of
the

underlying
forcing
from
anthropogenic

increase
in
greenhouse
gas
concentra:ons.”

hgp://www.apollo-‐gaia.org/Arc:c%20Dynamics.pdf

12

“…As
Member
States
consider
the
processes
leading
up
to
2015,
they
could
be

supported
by
a
report
of
the
Secretary-‐General
during
the
main
part
of
the
sixty-‐
ninth
session
of
the
General
Assembly.
This
would
draw
upon
the
outcomes
of
the

Open
Working
Group
on
Sustainable
Development
Goals,
the
Intergovernmental

Commigee
of
Experts
on
Sustainable
Development
Financing
and
other
bodies.

The
intergovernmental
process
could
lead
to
an
agreement
on
the
vision,

principles,
goals
and
targets
of
the
post-‐2015
development
agenda,
as
well
as
on

the
renewed
global
partnership
for
development…”

Follow-‐up
to
the
outcome
of
the
Millennium
Summit

Item
118
of
the
provisional
agenda
A/68/150,
Sixty-‐eighth
session

hgp://daccess-‐dds-‐ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N13/409/32/PDF/N1340932.pdf

vs

“Poli:cal
eﬀorts
to
curb
pollu:on,
protect
forests
and
avert
climate
change
have

proven
totally
inadequate.”

Achim
Steiner,
UNEP
execu:ve
director,
Oct
2008

12

Institutional steps vs solutions

13

May
we
have
another
40
years
please?

1972
Stockholm
conference;
Rio+20
is
Stockholm+40

The
‘solu:on
space’
used
for

major
global
problems
has

solved
none
of
them.

What
now?

1.  Cross
ﬁngers
and
keep

going?

2.  Rethink?

14

Why
does
it
seem
so
hard?

You can’t solve
today’s problems with
the same thinking
that causes them
John Cole http://emedia.thetimes-tribune.com

“…like
picking
up
a
tangled
skein
of
wool;
all
the
threads
are

interwoven
-‐
everything
leads
to
something
else.”

First
lady
‘Lady
Bird’
Johnson
1970

16

“Divide
each
diﬃculty
into
as

many
parts
as
is
possible
and

necessary
to
resolve
it”

Déscartes
1637

17

None

Complexity
considered

All

None

Change
considered

All

Default
zone:

systema:c
steps

in
subsystems

Complexity
zone:

explore

Chaos
zone:

“Avoid”

Scep:cs
corner

Mapping
the
solu:on
space
1
of
2

‘We
need
to
advance
in
a
managed
way.
We
take
one
block
at
a
:me.
Otherwise
we
will

produce
chaos.’

video
at
12:45
mins
hgp://www.environmentalgovernance.org/video/2010/05/quest-‐for-‐leadership/

18

None

Complexity
considered

All

None

Change
considered

All

Default
zone:

systema:c
change

In
subsystems

Missing
perspec:ve:

systemic
change
in
whole
system

Default
scep:c

posi:on:
no
change

Mapping
the
solu:on
space
2
of
2

Blindspot

Comfort
zone

Extreme
comfort
zone

19

Subsystem
and
whole
system
approaches

Default:
systema+c
New:
systemic

Focus
on
subsystems
deﬁned
by
topics

(such
as
climate
or
food),
sectors
(such
as

energy
or
ﬁnance),
ins:tu:ons
or
physical

areas
(such
as
a
community
or
region).

Focus
on
whole
system
not
subsystems.

Complexity
is
manageable
as
subsystems.
Complexity
is
manageable
as
an
indivisible

whole.

Manage
via
reducing
(disregarding)

complexity.

Manage
via
the
connectedness
of

complexity.

Progress
as
gradual
incremental
change

along
a
linear
trajectory.

Progress
as
change
of
paradigms
(system

states).

20

Switch
from
hopping
to
running

•  Subsystem
and
whole
system

methods
are
like
feet.
Best
to
use

both.

•  ‘In
the
broader
perspec:ve
of
the

systems
approach
no
problem
can

be
solved
simply
on
its
own
basis.

Every
problem
has
an
environment,

to
which
it
is
inextricably
united.’

C
West
Churchman

•  Hence
every
subsystem
has
a
global

whole
system
to
which
it
is

inextricably
united

21

1969:
‘What
would
be
the
true
progress
of
man

if
hunger
and
war
persists?’

The
Guardian
newspaper
July
21st
1969

o 
Food
security
involves

solu:ons
both
within
and

beyond
the
food
subsystem.

o 
Na:onal
security
involves

solu:ons
both
within
and

beyond
the
conﬂict
subsystem.

22

Has food production gone ‘potty’?
This
top
soil
was
so
impoverished
it
could
be
made
into
a
clay
pot.

23

The
Guardian
June
25th
1988

o 
Climate
instability
is
a
symptom
of
a
system.

o 
It’s
a
race
between
runaway
change
and
an
eﬀec:ve
systemic
response.

o 
Responses
so
far
are
systema:c.
Eg,
‘Let’s
focus
on
carbon
emissions.’

o 
What
would
a
systemic
response
do?

• 
Cook
by
making
charcoal

rather
than
burning
it

• 
Grow
food
by
building
rather

than
deple:ng
soils

• 
Incen:ves
to
plant
trees
rather

than
cut
them

• 
Large
scale
carbon
storage
by

small
scale
ini:a:ve

• 
Localised
money
spent
into

economy
for
biochar/soils/food/
trees.
This
adds
to
GDP.

Biochar – climate change in reverse
MIT
Climate
CoLab
proposal
hgp://bit.ly/pf4kX8

hgp://ow.ly/oJadI

hgp://ow.ly/oJaSy
hgp://ow.ly/oJbo8

hgp://ow.ly/oJbvv

hgp://ow.ly/oJc2E

27
Credit: jfiddler.smugmug.com

Leverage connectedness
Shift policy
-> new direction
-> makes new reality
“a
small
shiG
in
one
thing

can
produce
big
changes
in
everything”

Donella
Meadows,
Leverage
Points,
1999

28

Systems
have
pagerns
of
connectedness

“Systems
can
be
understood
by
looking
for
pagerns
within
their

complexity,
pagerns
that
describe
poten:al
evolu:ons
of
the

system.”

Dooley,
K.
(1996),
“A
Nominal
Deﬁni:on
of
Complex
Adap:ve
Systems,”
The
Chaos
Network,
8(1):

2-‐3.
hgp://www.public.asu.edu/~kdooley/papers/casdef.PDF

29

Pagerns
can
reveal
levers

•  Mechanisms
for
planet-‐scale
self-‐
organising
systemic
change

•  Lever
=
policy
switch
=
worldview
+

ac:on

•  Change
across
issues,
sectors
and

scales

•  Goals
are
not
compromised
but

merged

•  Lever
‘working
posi:ons’
are
binary

Eg
Nature
either
shrinks
or
expands.

Products
become
waste
or
new
resource.

30

NATO
don’t
just
do
bombing

NATO
Science
for
Peace
and
Security
Programme

www.nato.int/science/

Advanced
Research
Workshops

Energy
Security
themes

Seven
Policy
Switches
for
Global
Security

hgp://blindspot.org.uk/seven-‐policy-‐switches/

‘Together
the
switches
deﬁne
a
prac:cal
strategy
for
global
security,
for
a

serious
agempt
at
revival
of
co-‐opera:on,
ecosystems
and
prosperity.’

31

How ambitious?
Default: reduce problem
New: reverse problems
with net-positive impacts

32

We missed the bits about improving the environment…

Declara:on
of
the
United
Na:ons
Conference
on
the
Human
Environment

June
1972

• PRINCIPLE
1.

…
a
solemn
responsibility
to
protect
and
improve
the
environment
for
present

and
future
genera:ons.

• PRINCIPLE
2.

The
natural
resources
of
the
earth
…must
be
safeguarded
for
the
beneﬁt
of

present
and
future
genera:ons

• PRINCIPLE
3.

The
capacity
of
the
earth
to
produce
vital
renewable
resources
must
be

maintained
and,
wherever
prac:cable,
restored
or
improved.

33

hgp://www.slideshare.net/jlagarde/

34

Less bad is not good enough

“The view that negative impacts are
an inevitable consequence of
development has blinded us to the
obvious. We could design
development to increase the size,
health and resilience of natural
systems, while improving human
health and life quality.”
Janis Birkeland
Positive Development. Earthscan 2008
Economic tool for ‘positive development’ on page 339

35

BT

Our
2020
Net
Good
goal
is
to
help
customers

reduce
carbon
emissions
by
at
least
three

:mes
the
end-‐to-‐end
carbon
impact
of
our

business.

BT
Net
Good

How
do
we
learn?

Default:
what
we’re
told

New:
what
we’re
curious
about

Credit:
helenstoreyfounda:on.org/pro8.htm

37

hgp://www.slideshare.net/jlagarde/

38

How to handle resources?
Default: linear
New: circular

39

The
default
growth
strategy
is
obsolete

“Total
consump:on
of
resources
will
con:nue
to
increase
as
a
result
of
economic

growth…
The
G8
will
seek
to
reduce
waste,
reuse
and
recycle
resources
and
products

to
the
extent
economically
feasible.”

3R
Ac:on
Plan
Adopted
at
the
G8
Sea
Island
Summit,
June
10
2004

40
Nike
Considered
boot

Think
Chair
by
Steelcase

gDiapers

Shaw
carpet
:le

41

Kenneth
Boulding,
1966.
Cowboy
economy
vs
spaceship
economy

United
Na:ons
ZERI,
1994.
Zero
emissions,
“All
waste
is
to
be

converted
into
value-‐added
ingredients”.

Japan,
2000.
Fundamental
Law
for
Establishing
a
Sound
Material-‐Cycle

Society

Bill
McDonough
and
Michael
Braungart,
2002.
Cradle
to
Cradle:

Remaking
the
Way
We
Make
Things

China
Na:onal
Plan,
2006.
“It
is
an
urgent
strategic
task
for
China
to

vigorously
develop
the
circular
economy.”

Diﬀerent
language
for
the
same
goal

42

Precycling: circular economics in action
o 

Everything
can
be
precycled

o 
Everyone
precycles

o 
System-‐wide
precycling
=

sustainable
development
=
Green

economy

o 
Avoids
white-‐elephant
investments

Image:
Publicity
by
Berkeley
City,

California
in
1989

www.ororkepr.com

Precycling
is
ac:on
to
ensure
that
resources
won’t
add
to
wastes
in
ecosystems.

43

A market-based tool can fix eco-externalities.
Expands ‘green economy’. Aligns economy with
values.
Growth rises. Emissions fall. Ecosystems expand.
MIT Climate CoLab proposal:
‘Fix the system’, http://bit.ly/qpItP9

44

Life insurance for resources
Insurance
is
about
risks:

o 
Insurance
avoids
being
ﬁnancially
wiped-‐out

o 
Can
prevent
disasters,
like
early
ﬁre
insurance

o 
Can
share
risks,
like
car
insurance

Precycling
premiums
are
about
preven:ng
accumula:ve
risks:

o 
Extension
of
exis:ng
‘recycling
insurance’
in
EU
WEEE
Direc:ve

o 
Premiums
come
from
products
at
risk
of
becoming
waste

o 
Premiums
go
to
green
economy
and
society
(precycling
everything
everywhere)

45

Credit: seeingtheforest.com
How to get security?
Default: us vs them insecurity
New: global security,
tweak GDP to reverse the arms
race

46

How to get on with the Earth?
Default: the Earth belongs to us
New: we belong to the Earth,
Ownership to include guardianship

47

Doug and Kris Tompkins
Credit: Sam Beebe, eo.wikipedia.org

How to use wealth?
Default: mega-rich: mega-problems
New: prompt sharing, fix problem stockpile

Credit: FreeDigitalPhotos.net
How to create money?
Default: banks create money
as debt
New: create money publicly,
end austerity

49

Seven
policy
switches
for
global
security

1.  Development
=
Net-‐posi:ve
impacts
not
less-‐bad

2.  Learning
led
by
curiosity
not
programming

3.  Circular
economy
to
build
not
consume
the
physical

basis
for
economic
growth

4.  Tweak
GDP
to
reverse
macro-‐incen:ves
for

militarisa:on
of
problem-‐solving

5.  Ownership
to
include
guardianship.
We
belong
to
Earth.

6.  Stockpile
of
surplus
wealth
recruited
into
ﬁxing
the

stockpile
of
problems

7.  Monetary
liquidity
supplied
by
public
bodies
not
private

banks

50

Thank you!

Let’s connect…
James Greyson
@blindspotting
@climate_rescue
www.BlindSpot.org.uk

BlindSpot Prince's Foundation net-positive circular economy

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