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Managing coral reefs in the
face of climate change:
Is there any point?
Dr Paul Marshall
Director – Climate Change
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
Healthy reef
Bleached reef
Damaged reef
Degraded reef
Is management futile?
Pre-climate change
Worst-case scenario
1950 2000 2100
Reefcondition
2050
20092009 tem
perature
Pre-climate change
Worst-case scenario
1950 2000 2100
Reefcondition
2050
20092009 tem
perature
Best-case scenario
RESILIENCERESILIENCE
Is management futile?
A framework for management action
1.1. Understand problemUnderstand problem
Climate Change Vulnerability AssessmentClimate Change Vulnerability Assessment
2.2. Identify strategies for reducing riskIdentify strategies for reducing risk
Resilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectorsResilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectors
3.3. Prioritise adaptation activitiesPrioritise adaptation activities
Climate Change Adaptation PlanClimate Change Adaptation Plan
4.4. Build resilienceBuild resilience
ImplementationImplementation
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Climate Change & the GBR:
A Vulnerability Assessment
Introduction
Vulnerability
of species and
species
groups
Vulnerability
of GBR
habitats
Enabling
management
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR)
Climate and climate change on the GBR
Oceanography and climate change
Resilience, climate change & the GBR
Marine microbes
Plankton
Macroalgae
Seagrasses
Mangroves & tidal wetlands
Reef-building corals
Benthic invertebrates
Fishes
Sharks & Rays
Seabirds
Marine reptiles
Marine mammals
Coral reefs
Pelagic systems
Coasts and estuaries
Islands and cays
Geomorphological features
Palaeoecology
Industries and communities
Vulnerability & management
implications
Climate Change & the GBR:
A Vulnerability Assessment
Prioritising management
Humans
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Prioritising management
Resilience Analysis (corals)
Marshall &
Schuttenberg
2007
New science
Reducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold
Wooldridge and
Done, 2009
Adaptation Plan
Adapting management
1.1. Manage for process, not just stateManage for process, not just state
• Restore water quality
• Protect key functional groups
• Protect refugia/critical habitats
• Restore resilience of important components
 Photo © Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com.
2.2. Effectively prioritise effort & resourcesEffectively prioritise effort & resources
• Urgency
• Importance
• Feasibility
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Cost Values
Management
Priority
Adapting management
3.3. Manage for social-ecological resilienceManage for social-ecological resilience
• Resource-dependency
• Climate change as a common enemy
• Converting stakeholders to champions
Adapting management
Key messages
1.1. GHGs must be stabilisedGHGs must be stabilised
2.2. Management has never been moreManagement has never been more
importantimportant
3.3. Management needs to adaptManagement needs to adapt
• Resilience focus
• Triage
• Partnerships
4.4. Climate change is an opportunity, tooClimate change is an opportunity, too

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Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point (IWC5 Presentation)

  • 1. Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point? Dr Paul Marshall Director – Climate Change Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
  • 6. Is management futile? Pre-climate change Worst-case scenario 1950 2000 2100 Reefcondition 2050 20092009 tem perature
  • 7. Pre-climate change Worst-case scenario 1950 2000 2100 Reefcondition 2050 20092009 tem perature Best-case scenario RESILIENCERESILIENCE Is management futile?
  • 8. A framework for management action 1.1. Understand problemUnderstand problem Climate Change Vulnerability AssessmentClimate Change Vulnerability Assessment 2.2. Identify strategies for reducing riskIdentify strategies for reducing risk Resilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectorsResilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectors 3.3. Prioritise adaptation activitiesPrioritise adaptation activities Climate Change Adaptation PlanClimate Change Adaptation Plan 4.4. Build resilienceBuild resilience ImplementationImplementation
  • 10. Introduction Vulnerability of species and species groups Vulnerability of GBR habitats Enabling management The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Climate and climate change on the GBR Oceanography and climate change Resilience, climate change & the GBR Marine microbes Plankton Macroalgae Seagrasses Mangroves & tidal wetlands Reef-building corals Benthic invertebrates Fishes Sharks & Rays Seabirds Marine reptiles Marine mammals Coral reefs Pelagic systems Coasts and estuaries Islands and cays Geomorphological features Palaeoecology Industries and communities Vulnerability & management implications Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment
  • 14. New science Reducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold Wooldridge and Done, 2009
  • 16. Adapting management 1.1. Manage for process, not just stateManage for process, not just state • Restore water quality • Protect key functional groups • Protect refugia/critical habitats • Restore resilience of important components  Photo © Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com.
  • 17. 2.2. Effectively prioritise effort & resourcesEffectively prioritise effort & resources • Urgency • Importance • Feasibility Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Cost Values Management Priority Adapting management
  • 18. 3.3. Manage for social-ecological resilienceManage for social-ecological resilience • Resource-dependency • Climate change as a common enemy • Converting stakeholders to champions Adapting management
  • 19. Key messages 1.1. GHGs must be stabilisedGHGs must be stabilised 2.2. Management has never been moreManagement has never been more importantimportant 3.3. Management needs to adaptManagement needs to adapt • Resilience focus • Triage • Partnerships 4.4. Climate change is an opportunity, tooClimate change is an opportunity, too

Notas do Editor

  1. And while the newspaper journalists fire broadsides, real change is occurring….