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Climate Change Impacts on Estimating Design Flood Level
1. Incorporating Climate Change Impacts in Estimating
Design Basis Flood Level at a Project Site
Pankaj Mani
(mailofpmani@yahoo.com)
National Institute of Hydrology,
Patna
2. Climate Change impacts on Water
Resources Projects
• Design flood hydrograph is a key input for Water
Resources Projects particularly flood protection/
management works.
• The design flood is computed by convoluting design storm
with unit hydrograph.
• The general prediction from climate change research
indicates comparatively more vigorous hydrological cycle
resulting into
– increased precipitation (intense storm with altered temporal
distribution)
– Increased evaporation rates
• This in turn affect the design storm and further the design
flood and then the maximum flood level
3. % increase in peak of flood
hydrograph with % increase in peak
of UH
4. % decrease in peak of flood
hydrograph with loss rate
9. 9
• Breach in FBC
• Breach in BML
• Catchment flooding
• Local site rainfall
Effect of climate change on maximum flood
level at a plant site
Case Study: NPCIL, Harayana
11. 11
Rainfall estimate is increased
by 15% to account for the
future climate change
The maximum flood level is
computed as RL 218.25 m
which was otherwise RL
218.15 m.
An increase of 0.1 m is
computed due to increase in
rainfall estimate by 15%
Effect of climate change on maximum flood
level at a plant site
14. Effect of climate change on maximum flood
level at a plant site
Various sources of flooding:
Upstream catchments floods
Back water effect of Bargi dam
Failure of upstream dams
Local site rainfall
15. 15
The impact of climate change has been considered by increasing the rainfall
by 15% and thus the corresponding river flow is computed and its effect on
flooding has been estimated as 2.02 m.
Effect of climate change on maximum flood
level at a plant site