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Decision making
- 1. Good Decisions Make them fast and effective! S
- 3. Better Decisions - Better Lives S Good decision- making is an essential life skill, but most people acquire it only through a process of trial and error – if at all.
- 4. What is a good decision? S A good decision is one that makes sense from a head perspective and feels right from a heart perspective
- 5. Using your head a decision makes sense. • • • • Searching for facts making judgments about the likelihood of future events understanding how one thing relates to another reasoning your way through the whole situation to reach a sound conclusion.
- 6. Using your heart a decision feels right. • • taking into account social (relationship) considerations how much you care about the consequences of your decisions
- 7. Our decisions shape our lives – for better or for worse. ―Decision‖ and ―scissors‖ have the same root – by making a decision I choose to cut off one alternative future in order to pursue another. What future will I choose for myself and the people I care about?
- 8. What Kind of Decision is this? S To size up the decision, ask yourself: S What kind of decision is this? S How big is the real commitment? What is at stake? S Will I be locked in or can it be easily reversed? S How much time do I have to make this decision? S Should I escalate the decision to a higher level? S (Consider a wider frame) S Does delay have serious consequences?
- 9. Defining a Good Decision S Whether my decision is good or bad depends on how I make it – not on the outcome
- 10. Helpful Frame S Purpose - What kind of picture do I want? S Scope - What do I want to include in the picture S Perspective - From where do I want to take the picture?
- 11. Clear Values What do I really care about. S WHAT IS IT? S WHY DO IT? S Values are what I care about (due to wants, needs, dislikes, etc.) by which I prefer one consequence of a decision over another.
- 12. Clear Values Head Questions: S Can I explain why the potential futures associated with each alternative are attractive or not? S Can I explain how much of something I would give up in order to get more of something else? (e.g., the most I would be willing to pay for a warranty when I buy a used car) Heart Questions: S Have I considered the potential impacts of my decisions on all those whom I care about? S Are the values I am expressing consistent with my conscience?
- 13. Creative Alternatives There’s usually a better alternative. S An alternative is one of the possible courses of action available to me. When considering a weekend, alternatives could include what to do, where to go, how to get there, and who to go with.
- 14. Creative Alternatives Head Questions: S Are my alternatives logically complete (e.g., including doing nothing for now and revisiting the decision at a later time)? Heart Questions: S Do my alternatives consider others whom I care about? S Do my alternatives feel like a complete set? S What other alternatives might I consider, if I were not S afraid? What might someone I trust and admire do?
- 15. Useful Information What are the possible outcomes and their probabilities. S By information, we mean anything I know, would like to know, or should know that might influence my decision— but that is not under my control. This includes factual information from the past and judgments about current or future situations that help me anticipate the consequences of acting on the alternatives.
- 16. Useful Information S General Questions: S What do I wish I knew to make a better decision? S How might I get it? S Do I believe the information? Is the source biased? S Head Questions: S What are the potential outcomes of each course of action? S How likely is each of the outcomes? S Is it worth getting more information before deciding? S Heart Questions: S Who knows about this topic? Who could help me find out? S What stops me from getting the information that I wish I had?
- 17. Useful Information S TOOLS TO USE S Digging for information from good sources: Libraries, S S S S newspapers, magazines, internet Finding out from people who know Networking to find good sources ―Encoding‖ of judgment as probabilities Bayesian inference
- 18. Sound Reasoning Does it make sense to me? Can I explain the rationale? S Reasoning is how I combine my alternatives, information, and values to arrive at a decision. It is my answer to: ―I am choosing this alternative because... .‖
- 19. Sound Reasoning S General Questions: S What is my approach to comparing and selecting my best alternatives? S Is my analysis and selection among the alternatives consistent with my information and values? S How could I explain this choice to others? S Should I drop any alternatives for ethical reasons? S Head Questions: S Why is this the best alternative? S What would it take to switch to another alternative? S Have I used probabilities to describe uncertainty? S Heart Questions: S Do people I trust, respect and/or care about agree with S my logic/rationale? S Does the answer feel right? If not, why not?
- 20. Sound Reasoning S TOOLS TO USE S List of pros and cons for each alternative S Decision and probability trees S Influence diagrams S Computer/spreadsheet models, simulation S Rules of decision theory
- 21. Commitment to Follow Through Living my decisions makes them real. S Commitment to follow through means I am set to follow through and have the ability to do so in a purposeful manner. If we are only halfhearted about our commitment, our followthrough is usually less intense and may not achieve the best results.
- 22. Commitment to Follow Through S General Questions: S Am I ready to act? S Will I do this? S Do I have the necessary means to follow through? S Head Questions: S What could stop me from following through? S Am I prepared for the consequences and for doing what it takes to carrying through the decision? S Heart Questions: S What fears do I have that prevent me from making my decision real? S Have I accepted the potential consequences that go along with acting/choosing? S Am I ready for the internal shift from considering the decision to the state of making it happen? S Will others support or hinder me in executing the decision? And,
- 23. Commitment to Follow Through S TOOLS TO USE S Good choice and good decision process to create right conditions for follow through S Alignment with others whose help I need to achieve commitment S Action or implementation plan S Progress measurement (e.g., milestones)
- 24. Process for Making Good Decisions
- 25. Decision Traps S Lack of Decision Fitness: recognize when I lack the capacity to make a good decision (e.g., the day I break up, when I’m angry or drunk, when I’m with the gang) S Fatalism: it doesn’t matter what I think or do, the future will just turn out the way that it will S Reacting to situations without thinking S Avoiding conscious choice due to fear of failure, S criticism, ambiguity, lack of resources, loss of face S Reacting unconsciously out of guilt, hate, shame, S revenge, or love S Unwittingly letting others decide for us
- 26. Know Yourself Know your preferences, strengths and weaknesses. S We drag decisions into our comfort zone instead of considering the real needs of the decision situation.
- 27. MBTI - personalities along four dimensions of preferences.
- 28. DICTATORIAL & PERMISSIVE ROLES S You must do what I say. S You may do what you want.
- 29. PARTICIPATIVE ROLES S Authoritative: The parent (or other adult) engages in a joint decisionmaking process with the youth, but reserves final veto power. Partner: The parent engages in a joint decision-making process with the youth, with the intention of reaching a consensus. Coach: The parent helps the youth to make a good choice. In the end, it is the youth’s decision to make.
- 30. Avoid Traps and Biases Filtering S Another important motivational bias is suppression, or the refusal to see reality for what it is. The extreme example is of an ostrich burying its head in the sand on seeing danger and hoping the threat will thereby disappear. S What we actually pay attention to is very much determined by what we expect to see. Psychologists call this selective perception. If something doesn’t fit, we often distort reality to fit our viewpoint rather than challenge our assumptions.
- 31. Avoid Traps and Biases Distortion S Even if we let the new information penetrate our minds objectively, we are still susceptible to various biases of interpretation S egocentrism, the tendency to overemphasize our own role in the events we seek to explain.
- 32. Decision Tree Heads Win 20UAH .5 Play .5 Not Win Tail Not 0 UAH +Sing -1UAH
- 33. Questions?
Notas do Editor
- Balancing Head and Heart : Decisions require both the head and the heart. Good choices result from a process of reasoning and caring. Good choices make sense and feel right.
- Decisions require both the head and the heart. Good choices result from a process of reasoning and caring. Good choices make sense and feel right.
- Decisions require both the head and the heart. Good choices result from a process of reasoning and caring. Good choices make sense and feel right. Extensive research has shown that people tend to lead either from the head or from the heart. Unless we make a conscious choice to achieve the appropriate balance, we tend to do what comes naturally and drag the problem into our comfort zone.
- Our decisions shape our lives – for better or for worse. Many decisions – for example, those that harm someone or break the law – may result in undesirable consequences that are hard, if not impossible, to undo. Other decisions – developing good study habits, adhering to one’s values, developing self-control, respecting self and others, and helping others – may result in favorable consequences that are hard, if not impossible, to otherwise replicate.
- Decisions come in many forms and sizes. They come both as problems and as opportunities. It is helpful to categorize your decisions into three types – the big decisions that shape our lives; the significant decisions that are worth considering seriously; and, the decisions made In the moment either because they appear inconsequential, or they require an immediate response. TOOLS TO USE Size up what kind of decisions you face When in doubt, ask others Select an approach that fits the decision type Practice until it becomes a habit
- For example: I feel that I need more money and I want to address the problem. There are many ways to approach this, like: How can I earn the money? How do I get it out of my parents? Maybe I don’t really need it.
- The values that are most important to me can make a big difference to my decisions. Too often, people make poor decisions by overemphasizing the short-term (e.g., buy it now) and underemphasizing the long-term (e.g., too much credit card debt); or by forgetting to consider a value that is important to them (e.g,. the effect of their decision on others they care about).
- The values that are most important to me can make a big difference to my decisions. Too often, people make poor decisions by overemphasizing the short-term (e.g., buy it now) and underemphasizing the long-term (e.g., too much credit card debt); or by forgetting to consider a value that is important to them (e.g,. the effect of their decision on others they care about). General Questions: When the consequences are all in, what is it that I really care about? How much of one want am I willing to give up to get more of another? How do my overall goals apply in this situation?
- Recognizing and creating alternatives is essential because, without alternative, I have no decision. Recognizable qualities of good alternatives are that they are under my control, significantly different, potentially attractive, and can be acted on. Many people wrongly assume that they have few or no alternatives. Usually, there are many more potentially desirable alternatives than appear at first glance. If I don’t like any of the alternatives I see, there’s a good chance I can find better ones by putting some effort into finding them. Other people, whose experience and judgment I respect, can often be a great source of alternatives I might not think of on my own.
- The values that are most important to me can make a big difference to my decisions. Too often, people make poor decisions by overemphasizing the short-term (e.g., buy it now) and underemphasizing the long-term (e.g., too much credit card debt); or by forgetting to consider a value that is important to them (e.g,. the effect of their decision on others they care about). General Questions: List alternative courses of action. Are there any potentially good alternatives not on my list? What alternatives might others consider that I might miss? Whose counsel might help me create better alternatives?
- The values that are most important to me can make a big difference to my decisions. Too often, people make poor decisions by overemphasizing the short-term (e.g., buy it now) and underemphasizing the long-term (e.g., too much credit card debt); or by forgetting to consider a value that is important to them (e.g,. the effect of their decision on others they care about).
- Recognizing and creating alternatives is essential because, without alternative, I have no decision. Recognizable qualities of good alternatives are that they are under my control, significantly different, potentially attractive, and can be acted on. Many people wrongly assume that they have few or no alternatives. Usually, there are many more potentially desirable alternatives than appear at first glance. If I don’t like any of the alternatives I see, there’s a good chance I can find better ones by putting some effort into finding them. Other people, whose experience and judgment I respect, can often be a great source of alternatives I might not think of on my own.
- The values that are most important to me can make a big difference to my decisions. Too often, people make poor decisions by overemphasizing the short-term (e.g., buy it now) and underemphasizing the long-term (e.g., too much credit card debt); or by forgetting to consider a value that is important to them (e.g,. the effect of their decision on others they care about).
- The values that are most important to me can make a big difference to my decisions. Too often, people make poor decisions by overemphasizing the short-term (e.g., buy it now) and underemphasizing the long-term (e.g., too much credit card debt); or by forgetting to consider a value that is important to them (e.g,. the effect of their decision on others they care about).
- Recognizing and creating alternatives is essential because, without alternative, I have no decision. Recognizable qualities of good alternatives are that they are under my control, significantly different, potentially attractive, and can be acted on. Many people wrongly assume that they have few or no alternatives. Usually, there are many more potentially desirable alternatives than appear at first glance. If I don’t like any of the alternatives I see, there’s a good chance I can find better ones by putting some effort into finding them. Other people, whose experience and judgment I respect, can often be a great source of alternatives I might not think of on my own.
- The values that are most important to me can make a big difference to my decisions. Too often, people make poor decisions by overemphasizing the short-term (e.g., buy it now) and underemphasizing the long-term (e.g., too much credit card debt); or by forgetting to consider a value that is important to them (e.g,. the effect of their decision on others they care about).
- The values that are most important to me can make a big difference to my decisions. Too often, people make poor decisions by overemphasizing the short-term (e.g., buy it now) and underemphasizing the long-term (e.g., too much credit card debt); or by forgetting to consider a value that is important to them (e.g,. the effect of their decision on others they care about).
- Recognizing and creating alternatives is essential because, without alternative, I have no decision. Recognizable qualities of good alternatives are that they are under my control, significantly different, potentially attractive, and can be acted on. Many people wrongly assume that they have few or no alternatives. Usually, there are many more potentially desirable alternatives than appear at first glance. If I don’t like any of the alternatives I see, there’s a good chance I can find better ones by putting some effort into finding them. Other people, whose experience and judgment I respect, can often be a great source of alternatives I might not think of on my own.
- Recognizing and creating alternatives is essential because, without alternative, I have no decision. Recognizable qualities of good alternatives are that they are under my control, significantly different, potentially attractive, and can be acted on. Many people wrongly assume that they have few or no alternatives. Usually, there are many more potentially desirable alternatives than appear at first glance. If I don’t like any of the alternatives I see, there’s a good chance I can find better ones by putting some effort into finding them. Other people, whose experience and judgment I respect, can often be a great source of alternatives I might not think of on my own.
- Recognizing and creating alternatives is essential because, without alternative, I have no decision. Recognizable qualities of good alternatives are that they are under my control, significantly different, potentially attractive, and can be acted on. Many people wrongly assume that they have few or no alternatives. Usually, there are many more potentially desirable alternatives than appear at first glance. If I don’t like any of the alternatives I see, there’s a good chance I can find better ones by putting some effort into finding them. Other people, whose experience and judgment I respect, can often be a great source of alternatives I might not think of on my own.
- Recognizing and creating alternatives is essential because, without alternative, I have no decision. Recognizable qualities of good alternatives are that they are under my control, significantly different, potentially attractive, and can be acted on. Many people wrongly assume that they have few or no alternatives. Usually, there are many more potentially desirable alternatives than appear at first glance. If I don’t like any of the alternatives I see, there’s a good chance I can find better ones by putting some effort into finding them. Other people, whose experience and judgment I respect, can often be a great source of alternatives I might not think of on my own.
- $10 – 0.5 = 9.50$ - 5$ = $4.50 Expected Value
- $10 – 0.5 = 9.50$ - 5$ = $4.50 Expected Value