The document discusses the vision and plans for a future smart society. It outlines four megatrends shaping future society: (1) a human-oriented society focused on creativity, (2) an aging population, (3) increased risks and uncertainties, and (4) rapid technology development. It also discusses how a smart revolution powered by advances in information and communication technologies will transform society and argues that governments must shift to more open, people-powered models that empower citizens to create new values.
1. Vision and Plans for
Coming smart Society
Kim, Seang-Tae
President
National Information Society Agency
2. Seang-Tae KIM kimst@nia.or.kr
• President, Inaugurated on May 19, 2008 and appointed 11th
President of NIA
• Dean, Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan
University
• President, Global e-Policy & e-Government Institute
• Member of Joint Evaluation Committee for Local Government,
Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs
• Advisor to Presidential transition committee
• Member of Evaluation Committee, Civil Service Commission
• Chairmen of Committee of World e-Government Award and
challenge
• Policy Advisor to Committee on Science, Technology,
Information and Telecommunication, National Assembly
• President, National Future Policy Institute, National Future
Policy Forum
• President of International Research Cooperation Facilitation
Committee, Korea Research Foundation
• president of Future Politics and Governance Committee, World
Future Society Forum
• Advisory board member of I-ways, Journal of E-Government
Policy and Regulation
Specialty • Member of Committee of U-city under Prime Minister’s Office
• Member of National Informatization Strategy Committee
• Innovation & e-Government, • President of Association of National ICT agencies
• National Competitiveness & IT Policy • Co-chair of Future Network 2020 Forum
-2-
• Foresight, Digital Convergence policy • Commissioner of ITU-UNESCO Global Broadband Commission
3. CONTENTS
I Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift
II Smart Revolution and IT Potential
III Preparing for Future
3
4. I Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift
4
5. Social Paradigm Shift
Agricultural Industrial Information Smart
Society Society Society Society
Agricultural • Capitalism • Post-Fordism (
?
Revolution • Patriarchy Industrial • Fordism (mass p Smart
Information small quantity
Primitive • Communities Revolution Revolution
roduction) Revolution batch producti
• Traditional so
Society • Vertical bureauc on)
ciety
racy • Network organ
ization
Agricultural Industrial Information
Smart Technology
Technology Technology Technology
Technology d Co-evolution of
evelopment technology and society
Change in society
5
6. Analysis of Global Megatrend
Based on 51 different foresight research sources produced by worldwide gov
ernments, agencies and experts (forecast of 2020 on average)
25 resources analyzed by Korea
US National Intelligenc
EU governments including
n government and public/priva
UK, Germany and Finland,
e Council (NIC), RAND multinational companies in
te research institutions (Presid
Corporation, MIT, Gartn ential Council for Future and Vi
cluding Shell, Siemens, etc. Japanese Ministry of Ec
er, etc. sion, KISTEP, KISDI, SERI, LGE
RI, etc.) onomy, Trade and Indu
stry, Committee on Jap
an’s Innovation Strateg
International organization y, Nomura Research Ins
s such as UN, World Future titute, etc.)
Society, and International
Energy Agency (IEA)
Australian 2020 Summit
15 Megatrends of Future society
6
7. 4 Keywords of Future
15 Megatrends of Future Society
Society Keywords
S • Change in population structure
• Polarization
• Network society
Human-orient
Technology
• Virtual intelligence space
ated
T • Convergence of technologies
• Robots
Ageing
Economy Population
E • Economy serving citizens’ well-being/ emotion/welfare
• Knowledge-based economy
• Emergence of global talents
Environment
Risk Society
• Climate change and environmental pollution
E • Energy crisis
• Increased side-effects of technology development
Technology De
Politics velopment
P • Globalization
• Increased threats to safety
• South-North unification
7
8. Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society
“Dream Society” “High concept, High touch”
Society where imagination and Moving to the ‘Conceptual Age’ w
emotions are important here creativity, emotions and intu
ition are important
※ Elements of future talents: creativit
Daniel Pink ※ High concept capability to create beauty a
Rolph Jensen y, teamwork, motivation, stimulation,
(Futurist) nd high touch capability to empathize with o
(Dream Company CIO) high spirits
thers are required
Human-oriented societ
y with emphasis on cre
ativity
“Pro-sumer economy”
“Age of vita capitalism”
Individual pro-sumers who are produc Coming of the ‘Age of vita capitalism
ers and consumers change the econo ’ where digilog system combining di
mic system innovatively and create ex gital and analog systems is the key
Alvin Toffler
(Futurist) plosive wealth
Lee O-Young concept
Professor
8
10. Keyword 2: Ageing society
Ageing Korea: Population of 65 and older will reach 38.2% by 2050
※ Population of 65 and older was only 3.8% in 1980; but it is expected to reach 38.2% by 2050 with 1.4 economically
active person aged 15~64 having to support 1 senior citizen (2010 Social Indicators of Korea, Statistics Korea)
Younger Generation
※ Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ in the 1990s was
• Increased burden (supporting senior mainly caused by negative economic
citizens, national pension, etc.) outlook from ageing and active
• Increased burden on social security consumption by citizens
Increased generational conflicts
Finance Industry
• Decreased tax revenue and Change in generational structure
increased spending on social
security
Ageing Change in household consumption
pattern
Increased budget deficits
Reorganized industrial structure
Macroeconomics
Savings rate↓ Labor force↓
Investment↓ Household income↓
*’Ageing society’ if share of the elderly in to
tal population is 7% or larger; ‘Aged society Decreased economic growth rate * Source: LGERI
’ if 14% or larger; and ‘Post-aged society’ if
20% or larger
11. Keyword 2: Ageing Society
[Population share by age group]
Warning!
(Rapid budget increase
on ageing)
65 or older
15~64 S&P says Korea might face the same fiscal trou
0~14 ble by 2050 as Greece is now in.
80 or older
Korea’s net government debt
forecast (in % in GDP)
Source: Statistics Korea (2010)
Number of economically active population (15~64) is forecasted to decrease from 2016.
Age group of those in 30~40s, making up the major part of labor force, already started
to decrease in number since 2006.
(x 10,000 persons) 2016
(36.19 mil)
Economically active
(age 15~64)
Source: S&P
2006 An international credit assessment agency, S&P for
(16.75 mil)
ecasts that the increased spending on the ageing s
Age 30~40s
ociety will increase the share of net government de
bt in GDP from 18.0% in 2010 to 48.0% in 2040, a
nd even further to 137.2% in 2050. (S&P, ‘Global
Ageing 2011’)
Source: Statistics Korea (2009) 11 Source: Munhwa Daily (2011)
12. Keyword 3: High-risk Society
Uncertainties that Korea might face
§ Low birth rate and entrance into post-aged society
§ Climate change and large-scale disasters
§ Increased social conflicts and cost due to polarization, Along with efforts to
multi-culturalism, etc. overcome the current risks,
§ Foreign exchange market crisis and trade war a strategy to forecast the
next 10 years or 100 years
§ Increased price of raw materials and energy
from now and change the
§ Lack of jobs and unbalanced manpower supply and de risks to opportunities is
mand important
§ Expansion of new diseases and epidemics
§ Unification and geographical uncertainties
(Adapted from ‘UN State of the Future’ – 2018 Korea)
Modern society is a risk society Prepare for the black swan,
where uncertainties and risks the enormous impact of the
caused by modernization highly improbable
influence the global
environment as a whole
(Adapted from Urlich Beck) (Adapted from Nassim Nicholas Taleb )
12
13. Keyword 3: High-risk Society
Korea is geographically located in a high-risk area where there is always p
ossible economic risk increase due to the US-China relationship and North
Korea’s nuclear threat
Geographically high Increased volatility in financial markets
er risk in
Korea due to inten
sified hegemonic co
mpetition between Worse con
Reduced FDI Agitated Lower intern ditions for
US and China
and lack of i foreign in ational credit foreign loa
nvestment vestors rating ns and rapi
d cost incr
eases
Real econom Impediment
y stagnation to economic
Shrinking con growth
Falling st Rising exc sumption fro
ock price hange rate m inflation
Stronger efforts b s
y North Korea
to build military t
More difficulties for the domestic industr
ension using nucle Reduced market capita
y to achieve long-term export contracts
ar weapons lization and more diffic
despite rising exchange rates because of
ulties in raising capital
foreign importers feeling more insecure
finance
about the Korean market
Source: SERI, KIET, KIEP, News
13 Articles, A. T. Kearney Analysis
14. Keyword 3: High-risk Society
< No. of brutal crimes > < No. of persons
< Climate change in Korea with forecast>
with officially
designated
infectious
diseases>
(* Source: National Institute of Meteorological Re
search 2010)
(* Source: National Police Agenc
(* Source: Ministry of Health and
y 2010) (* : , 2009.06)
Welfare, MK Business News,
2009.06)
< Growth rate of foreigners residing in < Real and potential growth < Nominal and real price of oil
OECD countries> rate of Korea, %> (in USD/barrel)>
Average increase rat Arrows represent average Nominal price 4th Oil-shock?
potential growth rate by
e for 2000~2008
each stage
Real price
3rd Oil-shock
2nd Oil-shock
Korea
Spain
Italy
Greece
Czech
Portugal
Slovakia
UK
Hungary
Norway
Finland
Japan
Luxembourg
Denmark
Austria
Switzerland
Sweden
Netherlands
Germany
Poten Real
tial
(* Source: Bank of Korea, Hyundai Research (* Source: Hyundai Research Institute, MK Busi
(* Source: OECD, UN, MK Business News 2010.12)
Institute, MK Business News 2009.09) ness News 2011.03)
16. 4 Keywords and Future Society
Risk Society
: Cost and budget increases
• Manpower decrease
• Tax revenue decrease
• Budget deficit increase
Ageing
• Emphasis on hum
anism, vita capital Population • Increased economic,
social, environment
• Future talents: m
al and political risks
ust be creative
Human High-risk • Rapid increase in cos
t for risk manageme
orientated society nt and recovery
• Increased impact of
uncertainties
Technology
development
People Power Society
: Creating new values by adding kn
• Sustained smart revolution
owledge and capacity of individuals • Network improvement (mobile, social and cloud networks)
• Reduced restrictions of time and place (virtual space, augmented reality)
• Improvement and development toward human-like technologies
17. Paradigm Shift in Government Operation i
n Future society
After the worldwide financial crisis, each country is now facing a ‘bu
dget deficit’ caused by massive government spending in the past
Korea is also bound to experience a greater deficit from the need for
providing quality services for citizens in the ageing and risk society
Traditional Gove
rnment-led Stat
e Management
Open government
operation based o
• Increases citizen rights and roles based on human-oriented creativity
n people power • Achieves a low-cost and high-quality country led by creative citizens
20. Future Government: Power of People
Shift to a new government operation paradigm by providing rights to people and
achieving an open government that understands demand and behavior of people
Information Smart Society
Agricultural Society Industrial Society Society (Post-Information Society)
Post-Fordism (small
?
Patriarchy Capitalism quantity batch pro
Communities Fordism (mass production) duction)
Traditional society Vertical bureaucracy Network organizatio
n
Feudal Society
Industrial Society
Smart Society
20
22. Rapid ICT Development
First e-mail (Tomlinson) (1972)
Arpanet test by US Dept. of Defense UCLA-Stanford Data Exchange (1969.10)
(1982)
Worldwide Internet users 22 billion by 2013
(Forrester Research Internet Population Forecast(2009.7))
Mosaic (1993)
WWW (1990) Netscape (1994)
First Webserver (1990)
(Tim Berners-Lee)
(2004)
(2005) (2007)
(2009)
(2010)
22
23. Smart Revolution: Smart Device
Rapid diffusion of smart phones, tablet PCs and Smart TVs
Mobile revolution through smart devices: “Internet on a chair”à “Internet on the move”
n Rapid expansion of mobile life regardless of social class, generation and job
n “A day starts and ends with smart phone”
n Has become a social trend (new term ‘mobile-blind’)
General Users Politicians Businessmen
Lives, works, communicates and ente Publicizes policies and communicates Adopts mobile office system
rtains with smart phone with voters
Socialize • Remote working
President Obama is a s [Case of IBM]
View videos Check traffic • Interconnection to i
mart phone lover ntra-system
• All-time response t
Read books Find roa
ds o customers
• Faster decision ma
king
Listen to
Search rest 25,000 IBM workers are using sma
music Used smart phone to publicize his polic l
aurants l
rt phones for work
ies and collect opinions during the 2008
election l The number is expected to reach
Shop more than 100,000 by 2012
l Has been using a specially manufacture
Play ga d smart phone since inauguration
mes
Monitor exe
rcise
24. Smart Revolution: Media Evolution
Traditional media evolves to social media after going through ICT and smart device development
Traditional Internet m Beginning of Social web
media
edia
revolution
Source: Social web and future trend (Jeong Ji-hoon, Head of IT Convergence Lab,
Myongji Hospital
Used as main channel for providing public services, delivering emergency al
erts and in elections
San Francisco Customer Servi
ce Center ‘SF311’ through wh
ich citizens can file SNS applic
ations in cases of emergency,
Active two-way com fire or road damage
munication using di
verse media
Twitter of British
Monarchy
UK encouraged citizens to vote throug
h SNS in Prime Minister Election
24 California Online Innovation Forum
Source : Brian Solism
25. Smart Revolution: Business Innovation
IT Evolution Change in Buying Platform Expansion Business Innovation
Rapid change of technology featur
Patterns Expansion from single platform, one-wa
Business value focus shifted from t
Extension of buying trend segmen echnology and quantity expansion
es to become online, intelligent an y communication to integrated platform
ted into individualization, customiz to emotion and quality improveme
d converged , two-way communication
ation, etc. nt
Diverse business chan New business concept Improved business pr Value-oriented busines
nels s ofit models ses
• Facilitation of Internet an • Facilitation of smart shopping • Boom in Internet and mobil • Active customer-oriented
d mobile services , one-person business, cloud s e ads marketing
• Introduction of converge ourcing, etc. • Coming of the cross-media • Expansion of businesses
nce businesses age contributing to society
25
26. Smart Revolution: Customized Services
Individual
Enjoys any customized service he/she wants regardless of time and place
Integrated Plat
Content & Service
form
26
27. Smart Revolution: New Life Style
Policy participation
Leisure information
Traffic information
Cultural life information
Job information
Sports facilities i One-stop civil service
Tour information nformation
27
28. Smart Revolution: Future Roles of IT
ICT is the main source of energy that leads the megatrend such as the econo
mic society, creates values, and changes the social system right from the fou
ndation
It is also the key means to actively responding to future uncertainties and ri
sks
Create/Expand Growth Engines
Agility,
Convergence
Network Intelligence
IT Potential
Manage open government
Foster creative talents
Two-way Overcome time
and space limits
Achieve smart welf
Create new values are society
28
29. Smart Revolution: Another ICT Leap
New Paradigm Needed
Smart Society Para
Information Society Paradigm digm
NOW
Dawn of Smart R
evolution
Industrial Society Paradigm
Introduction Growth Maturity Another leap
Informatization 1.0 Informatization 2.0 Informatization 3.0
29
30. Framework of Smart Society
Smart Life
Smart Gov Smart Biz
Service Infrastructure Social Infrastructure
Network Service/System Prediction Governance Law
32. Future Values
Opinion leaders in Korea selected “happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice and
fairness’ and ‘creativity and imagination’ as new values of the future
An in-depth interview on ‘Fut Justice & Fai
ure Korea’ and ‘The Roles of I Happiness
rness
CT in the Future’ was carried
out with 10 opinion leaders (
NIA, 2010. 9~11)
Future values
Creativity &
Sustainability
Imagination
32
33. Future Values and New Strategies
IT-based strategies are needed to achieve such future values – ‘happiness’,
‘sustainability’, ‘justice & fairness’, and ‘creativity & imagination’
Strategy 1 Strategy 2
Citizen Happine Growing Together
ss
• Smart government • Sharing, contribution
• Smart work • Supporting SMEs
Ageing (standard framework)
• u-health, u-welfare
Population • One-person business
Human- Risk
oriented
IT society
Technology
development
Strategy 3 Strategy 4
Creative Powerho Sustainable Deve
use lopment
• Smart talent • Knowledge platform
• Smart citizen • Smart Biz
• Smart learning 33 • Green IT
34. New Strategic Framework for Future Develo
pment
IT-based open platform
Smart
Smart sharing
Government
Standard
Smart Framework
Work
New Open
Values Ageing 1-person Innovation
Population Business
u-health,
u-welfare Human Risk
oriented Society
Knowledge
Technology Platform
Smart Development
Learning
Smart Biz
Smart
Citizen
Green IT
Smart Talent
IT-based open platform
35. 1. National Strategy of Platform for Creative In
novation
Facilitation of ‘open innovation’ and ‘collaborative creation’
Open platform applied to the entire society
Integration Openness
Connection Sharing
Participation Creation
Collaboration Innovation
36. 2. Platform Government for Advanced Administ
ration
< Change in Government Roles >
Agricultural Industrial Information Smart
Society Society Society Society
Mobilize and
Plan and create Mediate and “Create
distribute
market provide services values”
resources
Government/Public Sector Innovation
Open Open
Innovation Platform
Need for expansion of an open platform strate
gy in the entire administration
37. 3. Open Knowledge Ecosystem for New Values
Platform – main source of
competitiveness in the sm
art age
• Transform into a platform government
Government by expanding use of public information a
nd government services
• Establish a highly valued platform thro
ugh government engagement
Open innovation
Industries Collaborative crea Citizens
tion
• Create new services by actively using open go • Create group intelligence synergies by providing and
vernment information sharing new ideas based on active participation
• Innovate as global platform service industries • Communicate with government and build a framewor
by providing creative platform k by actively using government platform service
What is a platform strategy?
Value-oriented ecosystem strategy that integrates diverse ideas and knowledge and produces new
services by providing people the opportunities to challenge and create
Platform itself influences as group power is accumulated through the platform
38. 4. Open Contribution: Sharing Platform
Based on open contribution and sharing platform, participating organizations can pra
ctice beneficiary-oriented social contribution and sharing service by sharing informati
on with others and facilitating collaboration
Smart Angels Move
Relevant Organi
Sponsor
ment Council
Inquiry/application of
Integration of zations
volunteer service
volunteer service information
information
Volunteer organizations
IT experts
Volunteer
Service user Provision of
participant
volunteer service
Facilitated
management
information information
management Press/Media
IT businesses backup
Sharing
system
platform
Educational organizations
IT organizations/institutions Provision of
Volunteer service
Provision of
program
Statistical statistical
information
information information
Central/local government
Students Key Projects
Service
Mentoring
Ability-sha Rights-sha Teaching
ring
ring
Contribution and sharing platform
38
39. 5. Fostering Creative Future Talents: S.M.A.R.T
takes Actions
is a pursues
Multiplayer Relationships
A smart talent
knows how to prepares for
Share Tomorrow
39
40. 6. Creating Smart Businesses
Diversify business cha Introduce new busi Improve business prof Expand value-oriented
nnels ness concepts it models businesses
Facilitated Internet and Smart shopping, one- Rapid development of Customer-oriented marketing,
mobile services, introduction person business, and Internet mobile ads, coming expansion of businesses
of convergence businesses facilitated cloud sourcing of the age of cross-media contributing to society
Platform based Open Innovation
Market Drive Attention Get Target Marke
Smart Device Real Time
n ter t
Improve national competitiveness through smart businesses
Business Role Government Role
Establish foundation for businesses by supporting f
Contribute to economic growth by actively utilizi
acilitation and preparing for adverse effects
ng smart IT business strategy • Support with business facilitating policies and prepare legal
• Actively respond to changing business trends
means for improvement
• Provide diverse products and services to customers • Actively apply smart IT business strategies to government se
40 rvices
41. Closing
Informatization 3.0
Government 3.0
IT-based creative Creative citizens Smart Government
powerhouse leading
Open innovation and coll People Smart government based o
aborative creation n individualization, intellige
Power
nce and platforms
Low-cost, high-qu
ality country
Open knowledge ecosystem bas
ed on smart infrastructure
Open Innovation
New Values
Creative and Human-oriented Smart Society
- Improving from an IT powerhouse to a smart country guiding the world
41