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Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013 Webinar Presentation

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Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013 Webinar Presentation

  1. © OECD/IEA 2013Webinar20 June 2013Markus WrakeJustine GarrettDavide D‘AmbrosioContact: etp_project@iea.org
  2. © OECD/IEA 2013Tracking progress: why, how and against what?Global CO2 emissions under ETP 2012 scenariosAll sectors must contribute to reduce emissions in line with a 2 C scenario.293031323334353637382009 2015 2020GtCO2Other transf. 1%Buildings 18%Transport22%Industry 23%Power gen. 36%6DS emissions 38 Gt2DS emissions 32 Gt
  3. © OECD/IEA 2013Renewable power a light in the darkRenewable power generation42%Solar PV capacitygrowth 201219%Wind capacitygrowth 2012-11%Slowdown in renewablecapacity investment 2012
  4. © OECD/IEA 2013The IEA Energy Sector Carbon Intensity IndexA gloomy global picture: the ESCIIGlobal energy supply is as carbon intensive today as it was in 1990.46%Increase in global energydemand 1990-201044%Increase in energy-relatedCO2 emissions 1990-2010
  5. © OECD/IEA 2013Coal continues to outpace non-fossil energy sourcesCoal and non-fossil power generation2010 generation from coal was 28% higher than all non-fossil sources combined.0%10%20%30%40%05 00010 00015 00020 0001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020TWhHydro Other renewables NuclearCoal Shareof Coal Shareof non-fossil electricity2DS targets
  6. © OECD/IEA 2013Coal-to-gas switching: a regional phenomenonNatural gas spot pricesNatural gas is displacing coal-fired generation in some countries, butregional market dynamics are driving divergent trends.0246810121416182003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013USD/MBtuJapan LNGEurope (NBP)United States(Henry Hub)
  7. © OECD/IEA 2013Wanted: major new construction in nuclearNuclear capacity additions and reactors under construction16 GW of capacity additions are required out to 2020,versus a 30 GW historic high in the mid-1980s.03060901201501800510152025301979 1987 2006 2012 2015 2025ReactorsunderconstructionGWNet GW connected to the grid Reactorsunder construction2DS targets
  8. © OECD/IEA 2013CCS: still waiting its cue from governmentsCumulative spending on CCS projectsThere are signs of commercial interest in CCS technologies,but government policy remains inadequate to drive progress.
  9. © OECD/IEA 2013Improvement in fuel economy, but still a long road aheadFuel economy readiness index status, 2012Fuel economy is improving, but significant potential remains globally.
  10. © OECD/IEA 2013Hybrid vehicles are taking offHEV sales reached 1.2 million in 2012 and need togrow 50% every year until 2020.HEV global annual sales
  11. © OECD/IEA 2013High feedstock prices see biofuels production stalledGlobal biofuels productionGlobal production remained static in 2012, highlightingvulnerability of conventional biofuels to extreme weather events.0501001502002502000 2005 2010 2015 2020BillionlitersOtherBiodieselEthanolBiodieselEthanolAdvancedConventionalProjections 2DS target
  12. © OECD/IEA 2013Energy efficiency remains a largely untapped resource31%19%Iron and steelBAT energysavings potential25%Cement BATenergy savingspotential28%Chemicals andpetrochemicals BATenergy savingspotentialIncrease in industrial energyconsumption 2000-2010
  13. © OECD/IEA 2013Stringent building energy codes should be enforced50% of all existing buildings will still be standing in 2050BECs must target new and existing buildingsBuilding code implementation and stringency
  14. © OECD/IEA 2013The power is in the data: tracking systems integrationSmart grid technologiesSmart grid demonstration and deployment is intensifying, but betterdeployment indicators and data are required to accurately track progress.2010 2020Variablerenewablecapacity234 GW(4.5%)942 GW( 13.4%)2010 2020Electricity demand intransport278 TWh(1.6%)404 TWh(1.4%)2010 2020Globalelectricitydemand17 860 TWh 22 680 TWh0 24hVariableandpeak demand
  15. © OECD/IEA 2013Energy RD&D: declining share but more wisely spentIEA government RD&D expenditureEnergy RD&D has slipped in priority in IEA member countries.0%3%6%9%12%051015201974 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011ShareofenergyRD&DintotalR&DUSDbillionRenewableenergy Nuclear Fossil fuels Other Shareof energy RD&D in total R&D
  16. © OECD/IEA 2013Energy gets a small slice of the research pie2010 OECD government RD&D expenditure – 281 USD billion87 bn USDDefence46 bn USDHealthandenvironment43 bn USDGeneral university funds43 bn USDOther36 bn USDNon-orientedresearch15 bn USDSpaceprogrammes11 bn USDEnergy
  17. © OECD/IEA 2013Summing up the partsRenewable powerElectric and hybrid-electric vehiclesSmart gridsFuel economyGas-fired powerNuclear powerCoal-fired powerCarbon capture and storageIndustryBiofuelsBuildings
  18. © OECD/IEA 2013Upcoming publicationsTransition to Sustainable BuildingsJoin us on June 27 for the launch webinarRegister here:https://cleanenergysolutions.org/training/transition-to-sustainable-buildingsMedium-Term Renewable EnergyMarket Report 2013Released June 26
  19. © OECD/IEA 2013