German Norwegian Energy Forum Conference 2012 in Berlin

1. Is Europe prepared
for the German
Energiewende?
Berlin 23 October,
Auke Lont, CEO Statnett SF

2. What is the Energiewende?
Germany's future electricity mix after the nuclear phase out
Source & illustration: The Energiewende – Germany's gamble (The Ofxord Institute for Energy Studies, Buchan (2012))

3. What have we seen so far?
Source: http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/

4. What have we seen so far?
Source: http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/

6. Interaction between political framework,
technology and the market…
Technology
…drives progress
Market Political
framework

7. The future is uncertain…
Source: EPIA (2011): "Solar Photovoltaics Competing in the Energy Sector", IEA (2010): Projected Costs of Generating Electricity – 2010 Edition, NREL (2012) ‐ IEA Wind Task 26:
The Past And Future Cost Wind Energy.

8. …but electric
Electricity's share (%) of energy consumption in the EU
Source and Illustration: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050

9. Therefore we need a stronger grid – and
more interconnectors

10. But system stability and costs are
already under pressure…
Reduced quality of frequency …
....leads to increased system costs

11. …and costs may rise due to conflicting
targets and means
Grid investments and installed capacity under two policy scenarios in EU Energy Roadmap 2050
2500 2500
Euro billions total grid investment
2000 2000
GW installed capacity
1500 1500
1000 1000
500 500
0 0
Current policies High RES
Network investments 2011 ‐ 2050 Installed power capacity 2050
Source: EU Road Map 2050

12. The market is needed to realize the
energy and climate goals for 2050
Until new infrastructure
is in place, congestion
management, such as
price zones, will play an
important role
New mechanisms may
undermine the market –
e.g. national capacity
markets

13. The way forward
Technology
"Stay the course"
"Trust the market"
"Technology neutrality"
Market Political
framework

14. Europe – towards 2050

15. Security of supply in Norway
Power flows during the coldest
day ‐ 6th January 2010

16. Energy transition in Denmark
Electricity consumption, generation og transmission to Norway 6th og 7th of October 2010
Electricty
consumption
Jutland
Wind power
generation
Jutland
Transmission
Jutland ‐ Norway
TV
Coffee
Heading for 50 % wind power in 2020

17. The European energy
community towards 2050
- A possible scenario
Demand side almost fully
electrified
Considerable electricity
trade between countries
Natural gas – supporting
renewables
Oil – of less importance
Germany in the driving seat