2. Content
Development of the German market in general
Market position of Norway 2012
Analysis of Noway’s market potential on the German market
Analysis of interested holiday maker for Noway
Selected aspects of potential holiday maker for Norway
Main results of special analysis on „Nature holiday“
Dr. Peter Aderhold
3. Reiseanalyse 2012: Methode
7.703 personal face-to-face interviews in
Jan./Febr. 2012
about 1.500 sample-points
in private households
Random-Stichprobe
Representative for German speaking
population of 14 years and older
(70,33 Mio. = 100%)
since RA 2011 also including German
speaking foreigners living in Germany
Length of interview: Ø 60 minutes
Supplemented by „RA online“
- 2.000 + 2.500 online-Interviews
- in Mai + Nov. 2011
- 14 to 70 years
Dr. Peter Aderhold
4. Development of the German market in the view of Norwegian statistics
Registrered nights and arrivals of German holiday
maker (mio.)
2 1,74 1,661 1,69 1,68 1,632
1,586 1,595
1,5
1
0,514 0,527 0,544 0,496 0,527 0,629 0,621
0,5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Tyske gaestedoegn Tyske Ankomster
Nights in commercial registrered hotels etc. 2011: 1,6 mio.
Number of arrivals of German tourists 2011: 621 000
Stagnation auf dem deutschen Markt ?
Attention: not covering all tourists and their accomodation !!!
Dr. Peter Aderhold
5. Selected data on the
Development of the German holiday market in general
Dr. Peter Aderhold
6. Development of holiday propensity
Share of Germans (14 years +) taking per year at least one holiday of at
least 4 nights/5 days
%
90
80 78 76,2
70 74,8
60
50
40
Stability – or stagnation – despite of
30 economic ups and downs
20 24
10
0
54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 11
Dr. Peter Aderhold
7. Development of number of holidays (in mio.)
Since 1989 including East Germans, since 2011 also including German
speaking foreigners living in Germany
80
Total holidays 69,51 m
70
up to 1989 western Germany only→
60
Additional holidays 15,91 m
50
40
30 Main holidys 53,60 m
20
10
0
1971 1980 1995
Main holidays Additional holidays
Dr. Peter Aderhold
8. Development of share of holiday abroad/in Germany
%
100
Germany 85%
80 Abroad 69%
60
40
Germany 31%
20
Effect of
Abroad 15% reunification
0
1954 1960 1990 2011
Balance achieved between travel abroad (70%) and in Germany (30%),
but changes in between destinations
Dr. Peter Aderhold
9. Development of frequency of travel
%
100
18 13
32
80 44 25
60 36
36
40 32
62
20 46
24 32
0
1972 1982 1992 2011
frequent traveller occasional traveller infrequent traveller
Increasing share of frequent travellers leads to stability of demand
Dr. Peter Aderhold
10. Holiday propensity and age
%
100
80
60 2011
40 1989
20 1979
1970
0
14 - 19 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60 - 69 70+
Growth of demand during last 10 – 20 years result of
increasing holiday activities of 60 + generation and increasing
number of 60+
Dr. Peter Aderhold
11. Holiday propensity and social strata
Holiday propensity %
91%
100 80%
33 15 56%
50 8
58 65 48
0
Upper Medium Lower
Main holiday Additional holiday
(Increasing) Gape of society also with regard to travelling
Dr. Peter Aderhold
13. Norway 2009-2011 with 2.9%markedshare
ranking no 18
Spanien 24,6
Italien 16,8
Österreich 15
Türkei 13,3
Frankreich 8,2
Kroatien 6,5
Griechenland 6,4
Niederlande 6,2
Dänemark 5,5
Dänemark Nr. 9: 5,5%
Polen 4,2
Schweiz 4,2
Ägypten 3,8
Tschech. Rep. 3,4
USA 3,3
Asien 3,2
Großbritannien 3,2
Ungarn 3,1
Norwegen 2,9 Norwegen Nr. 18: 2,9%
Portugal 2,7
Schweden 2,4 Scheden Nr. 20: 2,4%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Dr. Peter Aderhold
14. Norway 2012-2014 with 11% marked potential
ranking no 12 … as in the years before
Spanien 41,1
Italien 31,4
Türkei 26,5
Österreich 25,9
Ranking
Frankreich 19,3
Griechenland 18,8 Potential no 12
Kroatien 15,9
Ungarn 15,2
Markedsshare no. 18
Dänemark 14 Dänemark Nr. 9: 14%
Schweiz 13,1
Niederlande 11,8 Indication for
Norwegen 11,5 Norwegen Nr. 12: 12% opportunities
Polen 11,3
Portugal 11,3
Schweden 11,1 Scheden Nr. 15: 11%
Ägypten 10,8
Asien 10,7
USA 8,7
Großbritannien 8,7
Tschech. Rep. 6,5
0 10 20 30 40 50
Dr. Peter Aderhold
15. Market potential of holiday regions 2005/2012
Development of market potential from 2005-07 to 2012-14 (% )
+15% 2005-07
80 70 +5%
+36%
2012-14
60
60 53
61 +13%
57 +16%
+5% - 8%
40 34
29
39 24
22
30
20 26 25
21
0
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itt
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st
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el
or
Sü
O
-E
itt
er
N
M
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nt
ss
ru
Au
ie
H
Northern Europe stagnating at about 20% market potential
Dr. Peter Aderhold
16. Keyfigues Norway RA 2009/RA 2010/RA 2011 (m)
10
8,1
8 6,9
6
4
2
2 1,2
0,5
0
N last 3 years N last year N pot. Total N pot. Hard N pot. Soft
RA 2010 (Mio.) RA 2011 (Mio.) RA 2012 (Mio.)
N last 3 Norway N-pot N-pot N-pot
years last year * total hard soft
RA 2010 (m.) 2,1 (0,6) 8,56 1,2 7,3
RA 2011 (m.) 1,9 (0,6) 8,39 1,4 7,0
RA 2012 (m.) 2,0 (0,5) 8,1 1,2 6,9
2010/12 (m 2,0 (0,6) 8,2 1,2 7,0
•Last year figures statistical unsecure data
Dr. Peter Aderhold
17. Interest for Norway 4 times as big as volume of
holiday makers
Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years
2,9% (2,0 mio.) 11,5% (8,1 million)
of the German population took of the German population plan a
at least one holiday in Norway holiday in Norway within the next
during the last 3 years 3 years 2012-14 “relatively
certain” or at least generally
consider a holiday in Norway
Interest for Norway 4 times as big as
volume of holiday makers
Opportunities for marketing !
Dr. Peter Aderhold
18. Soft potential 5 times as big as hard potential
Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years
2,9% (2,0 mio.) 11,5% (8,1 million)
of the German population took of the German population plan a
at least one holiday in Norway holiday in Norway within the next
during the last 3 years 3 years 2012-14 “relatively
certain” or at least generally
consider a holiday in Norway
15% (1,2 Mio.) 85% (6,9 Mio.)
‘Hard Norway potential” ‘Soft Norway potential”
Plan relatively certain a holiday in Norway Consider a holiday in Norway
2012-2014 2012-2014
Dr. Peter Aderhold
19. Large NEW potential opens market opportunities
Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years
2,9% (2,0 mio.) 11,5% (8,1 million)
of the German population took of the German population plan a
at least one holiday in Norway holiday in Norway within the next
during the last 3 years 3 years 2012-14 “relatively
certain” or at least generally
consider a holiday in Norway
13% (1,0 mio.) 87% (7.1 mio.)
‘Potential repeater of Norway” ‘NEW potential”
“Interest YES + experience YES” “Interest YES + experience NO”
Dr. Peter Aderhold
20. Knowledge of Norway from previous holidays (%)
Holiday in Norway before Holiday in Norway 2009-2011
45
40 42 42
41
35
35
30
25
20
15
10 13
5 9
0
N 2009 N 2010 N 2011 Pot total hard pot soft pot
About 40% of all actual Norway-tourists from Germany have had holiday
before, abouot 60% are „unexperienced“ Norway-guests
About 15% of all potential Norway-guests from Germany have been in
Norway before, 85% no previous experience („new potential“)
Dr. Peter Aderhold
21. Interest to take holiday in Norway 2012-14 (%) – hard and soft potential
120
100%
100
80
51% 50%
60 85
40 14
30
20 36
21 15
0
N 2009-2011 N 2011 N 2012-14
hard potential soft potential
About 50% of all actual Norway-tourists from Germany have interest to visit
Norway on a holiday again (potential repeater)
Dr. Peter Aderhold
22. Desctiption of the market potential for
Norway (aim group)
Comparison
Population total
Norway holiday maker 2009-2011
Potential Norway holiday maker 2012-2014 (hard p.)
Dr. Peter Aderhold
23. Structure in accordance to age, income and
education (%)
Zusammensetzung Bev. and Norway 2009-11 (%)
60 52
50 42 44
38 37
40
31
30 25
20 12
11
10 7
0
14-29 30-39 40-59 60+ u. EK m. EK o. EK Haupt Real Abi+
Population total Norway 2009-2011
80% over 40/no children in household - medium or high income -
good education
Dr. Peter Aderhold
24. Structure in accordance to life cycle
More than 70% 40+ travelling
35 without children
31
30
26
25
20
15 12
10 8 7 7 8
5 3
0 . . 6 3 . .
ch ch to -1 ch ch le
no o 6 no o p ne
d/ d /n up . / /n ou al
o
rie rie i ld ch ri ed ne +
c +
ar ar ch ith ar al
o
60 60
nm /m .+ w m 60
9/
u 39 m ily 60 0-
3 u. fa fa
m 0- 4
u. 4
Population Norway 2009-11
Dr. Peter Aderhold
25. Structure in accordance to social strata
60
47
50 42
40
52
30
20
23 25 12
10
0
Upper Medium Lower
Population Norw ay 2009-11
Norway holiday maker are belonging to upper (42%) and medium (47%) social strate (90%)
Dr. Peter Aderhold
26. Structure in accordance to Nielsen-regions
45 42
40
35
30
25 28
19 18
20 22 14 21
15
16
10 14 7
5
0
N I SH, HH, NS, B N II NRW N IIIA H, RhPf N IIIB+IV BW, Bay, N V - VII gl.Øst-T.,
Saar Berlin
Population Norway 2009-11
Dr. Peter Aderhold
27. Description of actual and potential Norway holiday maker
Interest in alternative holiday destinations
General holiday motivation/expectation
Interest in types of holiday
Dr. Peter Aderhold
28. Alternative holiday destinations of potential Norway tourists 2012-2014 (%)
Norway 15 85
Germany 34 36 70%
Sweden 6 58 66%
Spain 19 45 64%
Denmark 7 54 61%
plan relatively certain
Italy 14 41 55% consider
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dr. Peter Aderhold
29. Bevölk
. Norway Index
General holiday motivation (top 10) Hard pot.
% % %
Relaxation, no stress 66 77 117
Recuperate 59 71 120
Enjoy nature (RA 2011: 55/79/140) 50 68 136
Escape from daily routine 65 66 102
Sun, warmth, good whether 67 59 88
Feel free 55 58 105
New impressions 41 62 151
Travel around, be on the move 36 52 144
Get to know other countries 33 55 166
New experiences 40 49 122
Healthy climate 43 49 113
Dr. Peter Aderhold
30. Experience 2009 – 2011 with types of holiday (%)
60 56
Population 2009-11
50 45 Norway 2009-11
40 35
30 29
30 23 24
17 19 18
20 16
10 8 9 7
10 2
0
an
w
e
p
re
ng
se
e
ur
tri
av
no
t iv
tu
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nt
ki
d
ar
rs
Ac
Na
al
Cr
un
ve
C
te
W
Ad
p/
Ro
in
m
W
Ca
Norway guests significant more interested in nature and active orientated holidays
Dr. Peter Aderhold
31. Interest 2012 – 2014 with types of holiday (%)
70 Population 2012-14
59
60 51 Norway 2012-14
50 44 42
38
40 35 35 35 34
30
30 21 23
14 17 15 17
20
10
0
an
w
e
p
re
ng
se
e
ur
tri
no
av
t iv
tu
ui
nt
ki
d
ar
rs
Ac
Na
al
Cr
un
ve
C
te
W
Ad
p/
Ro
in
m
W
Ca
Norway guests significant more interested in nature and active orientated holidays
Dr. Peter Aderhold
32. Main results with regard to
internet access and usage of internet
on base of
der RA 2012 face-to-face (n = 7703)
und der RA online 11/2011 (n = 2016)
Dr. Peter Aderhold
33. Access to internet and experience for information and booking in tourism
Base: Population = 100%
% Jan 01
+135% Jan 04
80 73 Jan 08
70
70 Jan 11
55 Jan 12
60 +236%
49
50
40 +725% 33
29
30
31
20
10 15 4
0
Access to internet Experience with info Experience with
booking
Dr. Peter Aderhold
34. Norway holiday makers experience with internet (RA 2012)
Internet-Erfahrung Norwegen-Urlauber (in %) 2012
Populati Norway holiday Norway pot.
on 2011 2012-14
% % %
Access to internet 73 83 87
Related to population (total)
Experience with information (population) 55 72 73
Experience with booking (population) 33 52 47
Related to people with access
Experience with info (onliner) 75 87 84
Experience with booking (onliner) 45 63 54
Dr. Peter Aderhold
35. Using the internet for getting information about …
(all people using the internet/Norway 2009-11)
Information in the internet about ...
90 82
80 all
71 70
70 Norway 2009-11
69
60
60 64
60 49
50
49 37
40 30
40 29
30
20 26 25
19
10
0
ce
n
ot
er
n
io
r
tio
n
ht
sp
i
ca
f
pr
ai
at
of
ig
a
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e
tin
l
od
of
Fl
or
ta
th
en
s
at
om
on
on
de
er
R
ris
cc
op
y
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a
pa
A
id
it i
ur
om
ol
iv
To
H
ct
C
A
Dr. Peter Aderhold
36. Using the internet for booking of …
(all people using the internet/Norway 2009-11)
Using the internet for booking of ...
45 39
40 total
35 Norway 2009-11
30 27
25 33 24
25 21
20 23 17
21
15 19
10 13
10
5
0
n
ur
t
r
ke
tio
n
ht
ca
to
ai
ig
tic
a
Tr
l
od
ge
Fl
ta
ry
en
ka
om
t
En
R
c
cc
Pa
A
Dr. Peter Aderhold
37. Main results of special analysis of
Nature holiday
Expectations with regard to nature holiday
on the base of
RA 2012 face-to-face (n = 7703)
Dr. Peter Aderhold
38. Expectation on nature holiday (Norway holiday maker ++)
Must be fulfilled at nature holiday Population Norway 2009-11 Index
% %
Enjoy nature 47 62 132
Move around in free nature 40 59 148
Holiday in healthy climate 37 48 130
Good healthy meals 32 43 134
Experience untouched nature 24 31 130
Visit natural nature-attractions 18 26 144
Learn something about nature 13 24 185
Accomodation in the middle of nature 13 22 169
Ecological holiday, environmental 12 17 142
Mondey stays in the region 10 15 150
Meet people with interest in nature 11 15 136
Dr. Peter Aderhold
39. Expectation on nature holiday (Norway holiday maker +)
Must be fulfilled with nature holiday Population Norway 2009-11 Index
% %
Relaxation and recreation 45 54 120
Rest, do nothing 39 44 113
Observe animals in natural
sourrounding 15 17 113
Nature parks 13 14 108
Natur attractions such as nature
museums 9 9 100
Contact to animals 9 5 55
Don‘t make nature holiday 30 3 10
Dr. Peter Aderhold
40. My holiday should be as ecological as possible and take consideration to
natural resources and environment (agreement/disagreement in %)
50
41
40 37
42
30 22
31
20 25
10
0
completely neutral completely
agree/agree disagree/agree
Population Norway 2009-11
Dr. Peter Aderhold
41. In case of questions to table and graphs:
aderhold@aderhold.dk
Dr. Peter Aderhold
44. Analysis of actual and potential Norway holiday maker
Norw Norw N 2012-14 N 2012-14 N 2012-14
2009-11 2011 Pot. total hard pot. soft pot.
Person in mio. 2,0 0,45 8,1 1,20 6,9
% % % % %
N 2009-2011 100 100 (12) 13 (32) 35 (9) 9
N 2012-14
NEW potential (88) 87 (68) 65 (91) 91
N 2012-14
Potential total (55) 51 (62) 50 100 100 100
N 2012-14
Hard potential (22) 21 (42) 36 (16) 15
N 2012-14
soft potential (32) 30 (19) 14 (84) 85
First time Norway (59) 58
Holiday in N
before (41) 42
NEW potential = interest for N 2012-14, but no holiday in N 2009-2011; (RA 2011 data)
Dr. Peter Aderhold
45. Structure in accordance to age, income and
education (%)
Zusammensetzung Bev./N 2009-11 und N 2012-14 hartes P. (%)
60 52
50 45 46
40 36
32
28
30 22
20 14 13 12
10
0
14-29 30-39 40-59 60+ u. EK m. EK o. EK Haupt Real Abi+
Population total Norway 2009-2011 Norway 2012-2014 hard pot.
Dr. Peter Aderhold
46. Structure in accordance to social strata
60
50
50 47
42 41 52
40
30
20
23 25 12 9
10
0
Upper Medium Lower
Population Norw ay 2009-11 Norw ay 2012-14 hard pot.
Norway holiday maker are belonging to upper (40%) and medium (50%) social strate (90%)
Dr. Peter Aderhold
47. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday
Population. Norway Population. Norway
Experience Experience Interest Interest
2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot
% % % %
Nature (2012-11) 22-30 43-56 29-38 51-59
Adventure 23 45 30 51
Active 17 35 21 44
Walking 9 18 17 35
Winter snow 7 16 15 35
Dr. Peter Aderhold
48. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday
Population. Norway Population. Norway
Experience Experience Interest Interest
2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot
% % % %
Round trip 10 29 23 42
Cruise 2 19 14 35
Health 6 10 18 29
Culture 6 10 13 25
Dr. Peter Aderhold
49. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday
Population. Norway Population. Norway
Experience Experience Interest Interest
2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot
% % % %
Holiday
appartment 29 38 54 71
Holiday home 15 26 37 60
Camping total 8 24 17 34
Caravan 3 6 8 28
Mobile home 3 9 8 20
Tent 4 10 8 19
Coach 12 24 20 24
Dr. Peter Aderhold
50. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday
Population. Norway Population. Norway
Experience Experience Interest Interest
2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot
% % % %
Nature (2012-11) 22-30 43-56 29-38 51-59
Adventure 23 45 30 51
Active 17 35 21 44
Walking 9 18 17 35
Winter snow 7 16 15 35
Dr. Peter Aderhold
51. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday
Population. Norway Population. Norway
Experience Experience Interest Interest
2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot
% % % %
Round trip 10 29 23 42
Cruise 2 19 14 35
Health 6 10 18 29
Culture 6 10 13 25
Dr. Peter Aderhold
52. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday
Population. Norway Population. Norway
Experience Experience Interest Interest
2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot
% % % %
Holiday
appartment 29 38 54 71
Holiday home 15 26 37 60
Camping total 8 24 17 34
Caravan 3 6 8 28
Mobile home 3 9 8 20
Tent 4 10 8 19
Coach 12 24 20 24
Dr. Peter Aderhold
53. Structure in accordance to life cycle
More than 60% 40+ travelling
35
without children
30 28
25 23
20
15
15
9 9
10
7
5 5
5
0 . . 6 3 . .
ch ch -1 ch ch le
no no
to o ne
d/ up 6 /n /n
o up al
o
d/ .
ed ne co
rie rie hi
ld ch ri + +
ar ar c ith ar al
o
60 60
nm /m .+ w m 60
9/
u 39 m ily 60 0-
3 u. fa fa
m 0- 4
u. 4
Population Norway 2009-11 Norway 2012-14 hard pot.
Dr. Peter Aderhold
54. Structure in accordance to Nielsen-regions
45
40 38
35
30
25 28
20 18 18 17
22 21
15
16 10
10 14
5
0
N I SH, HH, NS, B N II NRW N IIIA H, RhPf N IIIB+IV BW, N V - VII gl.Øst-T.,
Bay, Saar Berlin
Population Norway 2009-11 Norway 2012-14 hard pot.
Dr. Peter Aderhold
