Everbody talks about electric cars as the future of transport. Here are some of the challenges on the road. (June 2009)

1. Electric Cars
– Global Trends
Results of Finpro Foresight
Ines Seidel, June 2009

2. Electric Car Trends - Overview
1. Background & Methodology
2. Global Electric Car Climate
3. Related Trends
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3. Background
• The Ministry of Employment and Economy has established
an official task force "Electric Vehicles in Finland“. The aim
of the working group is to define the required measures for
technology and innovation policy in order to strengthen the
foundations of know-how and business aspects in Finland.
• Finpro Foresight has been asked to use Finpro global
network to get a view on current trends related to the
use of Electric Cars. Can we find signals that relate to the
development outlook, impact, business possibilities, as well
as future needs of the branch in terms of research and
development activities?
• Finpro used the internal platform for sharing and discussing
signals related to Electric Cars. The following presentations
are an analysis of these signals, where appropriate, also
developments that are only indirectly linked to electric cars
have been included. – Deeper analysis into specific areas or
regions could be a next step.
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4. Methodology: From Signals to Trends
Signal Pattern/Trend Analysis: What is
collection Recognition happening + samples
Spillover Effects
Do it Yourself
Deeper Analysis of
Options and
Opportunites can be a
next step
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5. Electric Car Trends - Overview
1. Background & Methodology
2. Global Electric Car Climate
3. Related Trends
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6. Signals refer to various parts of the
electric car eco-system
Manufacturing/R&D
Car Industry crisis
Society Context
Battery R&D Progress
Energy Crisis
Competing Alternative Transport
Economic Crisis
Research Breakthroughs?
Government Influence
Consumer Acceptance (Costs,
Mistrust, Convenience)
Enabling Infrastructure
Utilities
Retail/Ownership Models
Charging Infrastructure
Insurance
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7. Questions that move the market
• How long before electric vehicles
become mass market?
While some car manufacturers are sure that
„the time for the mass-market zero-emission
car has come‖ (Carlos Ghosn, Renault-
Nissan), other experts believe that it may
take at least a decade before electric cars Research firm Fuji Keizai Co predicts battery-
enter the mainstream. powered electric vehicles to go mainstream in
Japan only until late 2020s or 2030s
High purchasing costs and lack of
convenience are currently seen as the
main obstacles towards mass adoption.
Hybrid cars are seen as an interim solution.
There is a hope for research
breakthroughs towards better batteries or
other alternative energy that could change
the game completely. Financial incentives
like subsidies speed up mass adoption
already today. © Finpro ry /7

8. Questions that move the market
• Who will be Winners and
Losers?
Establishing leadership in electric
car technology is like the new race
to the moon – every one wants to
be first. There is a certain
desperation in that competition as
electric cars are seen as a way out
of the crisis for the car industry ―When the electric revolution final
and the economic crisis as a whole. comes, China's e-bike makers could
have the last laugh‖ – Time, June 2009
This competition will inevitably lead
to casualties – and potentially also
to conflict over resources. In ―The flurry of ruthlessly competitive diplomatic and
corporate overtures to Bolivia … is driven by the
many cases, competition for same dream: ultimate control of the future global
survival also leads to new market for electric vehicles. An ample supply of
partnerships and also new value lithium, at least using current technology, is the
critical weapon in that quest and Bolivia is to lithium
chains/value networks are on the what Saudi Arabia is to oil, say geologists. ― Times
horizon. online, June 2009
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9. Questions that move the market
• Will electric cars make ―How is using electric cars considered
transportation environmentally green technology? If you still are tied to
a nuclear power plant that produces
save? waste that can‘t be disposed of, how is
The concern that the electric car/battery that green?‖ – Letter to the Editor, Northwest Herald
Feb 2009
industry is not really solving the energy
and environmental problems of transport is ―The delusion lies in the idea we can
voiced especially from activists and continue to live the way we do (eat,
consumer groups. Being „a little less consume and travel) but do so in a
"sustainable" fashion‖. Sydney Morning
bad“ is not seen as sufficient. Also Herald, June 2009
urban planning increasingly encourages
alternatives to cars. The suburban district Vauban was
As health and safety are generally designed for living without a car. 70% of
households do not own a car.
growing more important to consumers,
also electric vehicles need to address
these topics. Some worry that electromagnetic fields
generated by electric vehicles could
cause cancer.
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10. Electric Car Trends - Overview
1. Background & Methodology
2. Global Electric Car Climate
3. Related Trends
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11. Government Influence Only if the cost of ownership is
heavily subsidized will the cost
of electric cars be brought
Countries like the U.S. or China have put down to an attractive level for
it on their national agenda to develop a most consumers. - Comeback of
leading role in electric car technology. the Electric Car? BCG, Jan 2009
Governments try to speed market
migration towards electric cars through „Governments could …lose
financial incentives such as subsidies, tax revenues when drivers
taxes, investments. What will be the spend less money on
impact of electric vehicles on tax gasoline … Will lawmakers
…be willing to sacrifice tax
revenue? receipts that pay for the
upkeep of roads in order to
help control climate change.
If not, how will the tax burden
be migrated to the new fuel:
electricity?― - Electrifying cars.
McKinsey Quartlerly 2009, Number 3
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12. ―Because they are not in
the mainstream yet we may
look at potentially a higher
rating for these cars. Part
Spillover Effects of the group rating … is the
cost to repair the car. The
cost of repairing an electric
As electric car and battery industry take a or hybrid car could be
center stage in plans for the future of higher because of the
transport, this opens opportunities (and specialist technology they
challenges) to adjacent industries. feature,‖ Norwich Union, Britain‘s
biggest motor insurer.
Lightweight construction of car parts
and overall sustainable design are
obvious examples. Other spillover effects
on new value chains are not so clear:
Who will own and operate charging
stations? Could electrified cars lead to
new revenue streams for utilities? Will
insurers see electric vehicles as more
risky initially?
In the joined project, Vattenfall
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provides charging infrastructure
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13. Not just Cars!
When talking of electric vehicles,
typically passenger cars are being
discussed. But electric propulsion can
also make sense for other vehicles,
especially in an urban context.
Cheap, green electric bikes are
more popular than cars in
China's
crowded cities, helping to offset
the country's pollution problems.
Last year, Chinese bought 21
million e-bikes, compared with
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9.4 million autos. / 13

14. Multi-fuel Cars: Technology that
will allow cars to run on petro,
ethanol, bio diesel, hydrogen,
R&D Wildcard natural gas or biomass based fuel
is developed at the German
Aerospace Center in Germany.
The search for the best future transportation The various types of fuel are
is going on. Hydrogen powered vehicles turned into electricity and the
motor is in effect an electric motor.
seem to have lost the competition: Ford and
Nissan cancelled their hydrogen car plans
and the U.S. Department of Energy has put
BCG developed 3 scenarios
the brakes on hydrogen fuel cell research. and found that ―internal
Could other alternatives (such as compustion engines will
advanced internal-combustion engines remain the dominant
(ICE)) make battery powered vehicles technology in 2020 ―- Comeback
of the Electric Car? BCG, Jan 2009
obsolete? Regarding batteries, R&D efforts
are for instance concerned with storage and
speed of charging. As lithium is difficult to
recycle, also advances in recycling or
alternative materials are needed.
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15. Alternatives to Ownership
As many consumers are less interested
in owning products but more in using
them, alternative ownership models
Vancity—Canada's largest
are gaining in popularity, especially in
credit union (!)—kicked off
the field of transport: car sharing, bike their free Bike Share program
sharing and even boat sharing programs in summer 2007 and has since
can be seen, with very different business got a lot of positive feedback.
models (e.g. community ownership; or
company remains owner but sells usage
time). Similar service models are also Sunlabob Rural Energy (Laos)
is renting solar panels to
used for instance in solar technology. communities and solar
Likewise, innovative business models powered lanterns to
could make electric vehicles affordable individuals.
per use. © Finpro ry / 15

16. Sustainable mobility is at the
Do-it-Yourself heart of the motivation
behind c,mm,n (pronounced
"common"), an initiative from
the Dutch Society for Nature
With collaboration and empowerment and Environment along with
becoming a way of life it is little wonder that 3 universities. Aiming to
we see crowdsourcing /open source car provide an open source
model for cars in the year
projects also in the terrain of electric cars. 2020, the first collaboratively
Enthusiastic users hope to be able to designed prototype car was
develop more innovative and less expensive debuted recently at
cars – ideally with support from carmakers. Amsterdam's AutoRAI 2009
car show.
Similar developments can be seen in relation
to energy: As energy prices become more
noticable in people‗s budgets, consumer
generated energy becomes an interesting
alternative.
The influence on electric vehicle market
remains yet to be seen. © Finpro ry / 16

17. Electric cars emit gases indirectly if
they use widely available power from
fossil fuel electric plants which burn
coal, natural gas and petroleum .-
More radical, please! International Business Times, Feb
2009
„If you want a cheap
Despite the enthusiasm of governments way to be fuel
and many consumers, whether electric efficient, buy a car
cars can fulfill the promise of being an that‗s half the size.
environmentally friendly transportation is Hybrids cannot
not certain. If involved industries cannot compete with that.― –
BCG consultant Xavier Mosquet
address these issues convincingly and in interview, Mar 2009
with a holistic concept of sustainable
design, investments may turn into losses.
„(B)atteries at the end of
their lives may be
―If we accept the ―cradle to cradle‖ liabilities, not assets,
philosophy, there‘s no reason there should be because of their recycling
any garbage at all. No waste. Living systems, costs.―– - Electrifying cars.
McKinsey Quartlerly 2009/3
ecosystems, don‘t waste.‖ – Justin Podur,
Canadian activist, Apr 2008
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18. Contact
Markku Vantunen – Foresight Process
markku.vantunen@finpro.fi
00358 40 3433407
Ines Seidel – Foresight Projects
ines.seidel@finpro.fi
0049 8954264731
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