How Sectoral Shares are changing in the Indian Economy

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Gross Domestic Product estimates at granular levels is aimed at helping government bodies, companies, analysts, researchers, consultants and strategists understand economic activity levels and growth over time. This product brings out information on Gross Domestic Product at current as well as constant (1999-00 prices) prices for all 593 districts in India. Gross Domestic Product is defined as the total value of all final goods produced within the specified geographical area in a given year. We provide estimates for 7 years from 2001-02 to 2007-08. Estimates have been provided at three different levels- district, state and country level. Estimates are provided for aggregate GDP, Primary sector (Agriculture, Mining, Fishing, Forestry), Secondary sector (Construction, electricity, Manufacturing), Tertiary sector (Transport, Storage & Communication, Trade, Hotel & Restaurant, Public Administration, Banking & Insurance, Others) – 3 major sectors and 12 major sub-sectors of the economy. Coverage - Primary Sector (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Agriculture (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Mining & Quarrying (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Fishing (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Forestry (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Secondary Sector (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Construction (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Manufacturing Sector (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Tertiary Sector (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Transport, Storage & Communication (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Trade, Hotel & Restaurant (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Public Administration (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Banking & Insurance (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Other Services (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately) Total Gross Domestic Product (Current Prices and Constant Prices separately)

Negócios Diversão e humor Notícias e política

Gross Domestic Product by Sectors in The Indian Economy

All values in Rs millions The Three Major Sectors

All values in Rs millions Sub Sectors Of Primary Sector

All values in Rs millions Sub Sectors Of Secondary Sector

All values in Rs millions Sub Sectors Of Tertiary Sector

District GDP – Share of Primary Sector (current prices) Figures in % 2007-08 2004-05 2001-02 The diagram represents equal number of districts in each interval. Over the years the band for each interval is reducing in absolute value, indicating the declining share of primary sector across the board

District GDP – Share of Secondary Sector (current prices) Figures in % 2007-08 2004-05 2001-02 The diagram represents equal number of districts in each interval. Over the years the band for each interval is increasing in absolute value, indicating the enhancing share of secondary sector across the board. The increasing green patches in the east is a welcome development

District GDP – Share of Tertiary Sector (current prices) Figures in % 2007-08 2004-05 2001-02 The diagram represents equal number of districts in each interval. Over the years the band for each interval is fairly static in absolute value, indicating that share share of tertiary sector hasn’t changed much.

District GDP – Share of Manufacturing sub Sector (current prices) Figures in % 2007-08 2001-02 The diagram represents equal number of districts in each interval. The manufacturing sub sector (of the secondary sector) is surely and steadily growing in importance, particularly in the east.

District GDP of India 2007-08 We provide estimates for 7 years from 2001-02 to 2007-08. Estimates have been provided at three different levels- district, state and country level. Estimates are provided for aggregate GDP, Primary sector (Agriculture, Mining, Fishing, Forestry), Secondary sector (Construction, electricity, Manufacturing), Tertiary sector (Transport, Storage & Communication, Trade, Hotel & Restaurant, Public Administration, Banking & Insurance, Others) – 3 major sectors and 12 major sub-sectors of the economy.

As with all Indicus products, the product comes with a query software with GUI navigation which allows the user to drill down to the states via clickable maps. The users can extract data in spreadsheets, and create maps and charts with parameters.

Options The product is available in four versions Basic – Estimates of Aggregate GDP, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary sector GDP for 2007-08 Basic plus - Estimates of Aggregate GDP, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary sector GDP, 4 sub sectors of primary sector, 3 sub sectors of secondary sector and 5 sub sectors of tertiary sector for 2007-08 Premium - Estimates of Aggregate GDP, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary sector GDP for seven years - 2000-01 to 2007-08 Premium plus - Estimates of Aggregate GDP, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary sector GDP, 4 sub sectors of primary sector, 3 sub sectors of secondary sector and 5 sub sectors of tertiary sector for seven years - 2000-01 to 2007-08

For queries or placing orders please contact Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd. 2 nd Floor, Nehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi- 110002. Phone: 91-11-42512400/01 E-mail: products@indicus.net www.indicus.net

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The Case for Increasing FDI Caps in Insurance The history of India’s political economy is replete with missed opportunities. The approach to growth and investment has been often stranded in the many romantic notions of selfreliance and what constitutes national interest. In every decade since Independence, the approach to foreign direct investment has been influenced by a mistrust triggered by a colonial hangover. Every time India has opened its doors – or windows if you please – to foreign investment, it has been characterised by gradualism in the wake of much opposition. The debates around opening or expanding FDI are similar – as it was when telecom or banking opened up for foreign investment. What is important to recognise is that every such initiative has been beneficial, delivering greater common good. Higher economic growth is driven by competition and consumer choice. Competition drives efficiency and efficiency drives growth. This is true of every country that has done well economically. It is also true of India since 1991, in segments where competition has been introduced. Any attempt to artificially introduce protection always has costs. Inefficient producers are protected, but at the expense of consumers. Consumers suffer from higher prices,bad service and limited choice. This is straightforward under-graduate economic theory. The gains to inefficient producers are more than neutralized by losses to consumers, leading to an overall deadweight welfare loss to the country. In this argument, the colour of the competition, whether it is domestic or foreign, does not matter. In addition, there is the macroeconomic argument about a current account deficit having to be met through capital account inflows and non-debt-creating FDI inflows are preferable to debt-creating capital inflows. While these broad arguments about competition and FDI are accepted, the question to ask is, why should the insurance sector not be subject to these compelling arguments? Is there anything special about insurance that rational arguments should not be applied to this sector? In every sector where India has opened up to FDI, be it manufacturing or be it services, two propositions are empirically evident. First, liberalization helps consumers. Second, fears about inefficient producers being eliminated are also vastly exaggerated. Instead, producers of goods and services adapt and survive, based on access to capital, technology, knowhow, improved management practices and customer orientation. Therefore, protection not only harms the cause of consumers, it also harms the cause of producers. There is no reason why insurance should be treated differently. And economic logic and rationale should not be conditional on whether one is within the government or is in opposition.

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The Economic Freedom of the States of India 2012 estimates economic freedom in the 20 biggest Indian states, based on data for 2011. The aim of this report—to measure the level of economic freedom within India—grows out of a larger project begun in the 1980s by the Fraser Institute and culminating in the annual Economic Freedom of the World report (co-published by the Cato Institute in the United States). That exercise has proved fruitful in establishing a strong empirical relationship between economic freedom and prosperity, growth, and improvements in the whole range of indicators of human well being. The global report has also produced an explosion of research by leading universities, think tanks and international organisations on the critical role of economic freedom to human progress, including its importance to sustaining civil and political liberty. The Cato Institute is pleased to co-publish the present report on India with Indicus Analytics and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation at a time when both India’s high growth prospects and its commitment to reform have come under scrutiny. The main highlights of this study are as follows. 1. The top state in India in economic freedom in 2011 was Gujarat. It displaced Tamil Nadu, which had been the top state in 2009. Gujarat’s freedom index score has been rising fast, and at 0.64 it is now far ahead of second-placed Tamil Nadu (0.56). Madhya Pradesh (0.56) is close behind in third position, Haryana (0.55) retains fourth position and Himachal (0.53) retains fifth position. 2. The bottom three states in 2011 were, in reverse order, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. In 2009, the reverse order was Bihar, Uttarakhand and Assam. Uttarakhand has moved up sharply from 19th to 14th position, and this improved freedom is reflected in its average GDP growth rate of 12.82 per cent in 2004-2011, the fastest among all states. This is an impressive achievement for a once-backward state. 3. Earlier the median score for economic freedom for all states had declined from 0.38 in 2005 to 0.36 in 2009. But it has now improved substantially to 0.41 in 2011. This is good news. Still the median score lags way behind Gujarat’s 0.64, so other states have a long way to go. 4. The biggest improvement has been registered by Madhya Pradesh. Its freedom index score rose from 0.42 in 2009 to 0.56 in 2011, enabling it to move up from 6th to 3rd position. This improved economic freedom was associated with acceleration in its GDP growth. This averaged 6 per cent per year from 2004-2009, but then accelerated to 9 per cent per year in 2009-2011. 5. The biggest decline in economic freedom has been recorded by Jharkhand, which slumped from 8th to 19th position. Its score declined from 0.38 to 0.31. Unsurprisingly, its GDP growth has averaged only 4.6 per cent in 2004-2011, one of the lowest among all states . Jharkhand has special problems as a heavily forested state suffering from Maoist insurrections.

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Education is clearly important in tapping the so-called demographic dividend. There is nothing automatic about a demographic dividend materializing. Among other things, that is a function of health and education outcomes. More specifically, there is question of skills. The overall skills deficit has often been flagged. For instance, in 2002, the S.P. Gupta Special Group constituted by the Planning Commission stated, “It should be noted, however, that on the average the skilled labour force at present is hardly around 6-8 per cent of the total, compared to more than 60 per cent in most of the developed and emerging developing countries.” In 2001, the Montek Singh Ahluwalia Task Force , again constituted by the Planning Commission, stated, “Only 5% of the Indian labour force in this age category has vocational skills.” While the numbers are marginally different, the Eleventh Five Year Plan document adds the following. “The NSS 61st Round results show that among persons of age 15-29 years, only about 2% are reported to have received formal vocational training and another 8% reported to have received non-formal vocational training indicating that very few young persons actually enter the world of work with any kind of formal vocational training.” Among the youth, most of those with formal training are in Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. A better indicator of a State’s performance is the share of the young population that has some variety of formal training. In this, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh perform well. Is this because there is better training capacity and infrastructure? Is it because industrial activity exists in these States? Is it because there is a positive correlation between some minimum level of educational attainment and acquisition of formal training? The answer is probably a combination of various factors.

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Growth StoryG rowth is never an end in itself. It is a means to an end, especially because by growth one typically means growth in gross State domestic product (GSDP). In the context of a country, GSDP is akin to GDP (gross domestic product), the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a fixed time period,typically one year. GDP isn’t the same as GNI (gross national income), since GNI also includesnet factor income from abroad. The principle is no different for a State and GSDP is notnecessarily the same as gross state income (GSI). The difference can be important for a Statewhere migration and remittances are major variables. However, having accepted the point, oneis stuck, since no credible estimates exist for GSI. One only has figures on GSDP and mustaccept it as a surrogate indicator. GSDP figures are compiled by Directorates of Economics andStatistics of different State governments. They are then “vetted” by Central StatisticalOrganization (CSO) and finalized. GSDP figures can be in current prices, or in constant prices.If we do not wish to get carried away by inflation, we should focus on constant price numbers.In the present case, this means that everything is expressed in 2004-05 prices.

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Indian cement industry has passed through many ups and down. It was under strict government control till 1982. Subsequently, it was partially decontrolled and in 1989, the industry was opened for free market competition along with withdrawal of price and distribution controls. Finally, the industry was completely de-licensed in July 1991 under the policy of economic liberalization and the industry witnessed spectacular growth in production as well as capacity.

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The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3. The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011. The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period. This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each. Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.

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Household consumption patterns depend on many factors, and the age of the chief wage earner is a key determinant. The Indicus Indian Urban Consumer Spectrum classifies urban households into three broad categories: younger years, in which the chief wage earner is predominantly less than 34 years of age; middle years, in which the chief wage earner is mainly in the age group of 35 to 54, and mature years, households in which the chief wage earner is usually over the age of 54. At each life stage, there are different income and consumption patterns; as the chief wage earner moves into the older years, the family structure also changes. So the category of younger years does not necessarily denote younger households; in fact, households in mature years have more than 40% of its population under the age of 18. Creating consumer segments by the age of the chief wage earner of the household reveals patterns that are otherwise hidden in data. Take for instance occupations—the sector that employs the highest share of chief wage earners in younger and middle years is manufacturing, which takes up a lower share for chief wage earners in mature years. On the other hand, manufacturing falls to second slot for chief wage earners in mature years; and more interestingly, public administration/defence accounts for the third largest share of employment in this segment. This does point to the changing structure of employment over time, and also gives an indication of the income and consumption behaviour of these households. Then there is the size of the household—households where the chief wage earner is in his younger years are to a large extent small in size; close to 60% are single member households—the earning member in the city is single or married and living away from his family. This is the smallest segment, comprising less than 15% of urban households, and around 5% of urban population. The largest segment, which accounts for more than 60% of urban households, is those in which chief wage earners are in their mature years; here, a majority have five or more members and almost a quarter have more than two earning members. This, therefore, forms a bulk of urban consumer spends; and, since it includes senior citizens as well as minors, it caters to the needs of all age groups. The segment in which chief wage earners are in their middle years accounts for more than a quarter of urban households. This segment stands out as the one in which almost all households have minors; this would, therefore, be extremely cued into the needs of growing children—whether it comes to education, food or entertainment, it is in these households that children rule. The younger years segment feeds into the others as chief wage earners marry, or bring their families to the cities and have children, save to buy houses, two-wheelers, cars and so on, and the maturity of the chief wage earner naturally shows up in higher incomes and asset penetration across the groups.

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mall durables—the little items that personalize households and make each home different—can be divided into four main groups: furniture and fixtures, household appliances, recreational goods, and other personal goods including mobile handsets, watches, clocks, plastic goods and decorative items. As a group, they account for less than 2% of total household expenses, as other basic necessities such as food, travel and rent take up the bulk of the budget. The largest sub-groups in this category are other personal goods and household appliances, accounting for more than 80% and 11%, respectively, of the total expense within the group. There are variations across states. In Chandigarh, Goa and Kerala, household appliances take up close to 20% of the expenses in this category, double the average. Within this group of small durables, there is a wide variety, with prices and brands to suit every pocket, and as households move up the income ladder, they spend on higher-value items within the group; per-household annual expense on small durables, therefore, rises from Rs. 1,255 on an average in the lowest income segment, which are households earning less than Rs. 1.5 lakh a year, to Rs. 11,807 in the highest income segment of households earning more than Rs. 10 lakh a year.

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With technology based solutions seen as key to achieving financial inclusion, the role of e-money becomes important in reaching out to the unbanked masses. While regulatory space in India has been slowing opening up to allow non-banks to act as e-money issuers and prudential norms are in place, regulatory concerns remain regarding the safety of customer funds and the potential impact of e-money on monetary aggregates. The regulator’s dilemma, as described by David Porteous, is whether or not to implement measures that may hinder expansion of access to nonusers in the interest of greater protection for those who already have access, and it is for each country to evolve models and practices appropriate to their economy. It is however instructive to absorb lessons from international experiences that exemplify how regulations can evolve to meet the challenges involved in non-bank e-money issuers, all with the aim of bringing about universal financial inclusion.

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Sustaining the development of the country will require current levels of growth to trickle down to the poorest and more excluded of society. A critical way to extend these benefits will be to bring people into the formal sector of finance, whereby they may have more reliable and cheaper access to their financial needs of remittances, savings, borrowings etc. Many models have been suggested as alternatives to traditional branch banking, the current penetration of which is abysmally low. Options include mobile banking, enlisting business correspondents, encouraging MFIs, etc., and each option has its strengths and weaknesses. The models with the greatest potential for the future should be able to leverage on existing retail networks and the rapidly expanding ICT (information and communication technology) platform. As such, the BC model, clubbed with m-banking technology, holds the greatest promise to achieving universal inclusion and steps must be taken to encourage its sustained proliferation

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Under the Indicus Urban Consumer Expenditure Spectrum, the bottom of the pyramid in urban India is comprised of households that earn less than Rs. 1.5 lakh per annum. This class forms the bulk of the population in cities, but contributes less than 15% of total urban income and less than 10% of total urban savings. Household sizes are typically smaller than in the more affluent classes. One reason is that there are many migrants in this segment; with little skills and low education, their earning opportunities are low, albeit they supplement family incomes in the villages. Northern states, however, have larger household sizes within the segment.

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The organized sector in India created 704,800 jobs between January 2011 and June 2011 and 369,200 more jobs are expected to be created by September 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave2. The survey was conducted among 690 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The respondents included members of senior management and HR professionals who were questioned on specific areas relating to hiring plans across various timelines, manpower requirements for the current quarter vis-à-vis the last two quarters, and their views on how they see the job market to be in the year 2011. While the Indian economy is passing through a delicate phase with certain sectors looking at a bleak market in the near future, there are others who have performed well and continue to perform as per predictions made in the beginning of the year, thus reflecting buoyancy among employers. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector has remained the largest employment generator with 1, 15,000 jobs created in H1, followed by the Hospitality sector with 94,000 jobs created during the same period. The IT/ITeS sector, which witnessed a turnaround in 2010-11 by posting a double digit growth, continues to grow at the same pace and has added 91,000 jobs in H1. In the cities, New Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai continue to lead the job market job generating 1,39,700 jobs between January and June 2011, as predicted earlier this year

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According to the five income-segment classification of the Indicus urban consumer expenditure spectrum, in the second rung of affluence, or the upper middle class, among urban Indian households are those who earn between Rs. 5 lakh and Rs. 10 lakh annually. The population in these households comprise a little less than 10% of all urban households, but contribute around one-fifth of the total urban savings. It is the upper-income segments that form the big savers of the country, with high-disposable incomes, making them attractive markets for financial products. They are also the spenders in the high value category, contributing to about 17% of urban consumer expenditure in India. While this share is approximately the same as the lowest two income segments, being a relatively smaller segment, expenditure per household would be relatively higher. Moreover, the type of goods and services consumed would, of course, be quite different across the income segments.

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In India, it is not just the rural-urban divide that is striking in consumer markets, but also the diverse income segments within the urban centres. Income-wise segments can be created in many ways, the Indicus Urban Consumer Expenditure Spectrum takes five cuts – households earning less than Rs. 1.5 lakh per annum, between Rs. 1.5 lakh and Rs. 3 lakh, between Rs. 3 lakh and Rs. 5 lakh, between Rs. 5 lakh and Rs. 10 lakh and finally, households earning more than Rs. 10 lakh per annum. The top-end of urban consumers, that is the households earning more than Rs. ten lakhs per annum is a small segment, comprising around 5% of all urban households in India and around 6% of urban population. Yet despite being a small group, this segment contributes to a third of total urban consumer expenditure, making it one of the most sought after markets in India. This segment also constitutes close to half of the total urban household savings, with the highest disposable income and earning opportunities.

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How Sectoral Shares are changing in the Indian Economy

1. Gross Domestic Product by Sectors in The Indian Economy

2. All values in Rs millions The Three Major Sectors

3. All values in Rs millions Sub Sectors Of Primary Sector

4. All values in Rs millions Sub Sectors Of Secondary Sector

5. All values in Rs millions Sub Sectors Of Tertiary Sector

6. District GDP – Share of Primary Sector (current prices) Figures in % 2007-08 2004-05 2001-02 The diagram represents equal number of districts in each interval. Over the years the band for each interval is reducing in absolute value, indicating the declining share of primary sector across the board

7. District GDP – Share of Secondary Sector (current prices) Figures in % 2007-08 2004-05 2001-02 The diagram represents equal number of districts in each interval. Over the years the band for each interval is increasing in absolute value, indicating the enhancing share of secondary sector across the board. The increasing green patches in the east is a welcome development

8. District GDP – Share of Tertiary Sector (current prices) Figures in % 2007-08 2004-05 2001-02 The diagram represents equal number of districts in each interval. Over the years the band for each interval is fairly static in absolute value, indicating that share share of tertiary sector hasn’t changed much.

9. District GDP – Share of Manufacturing sub Sector (current prices) Figures in % 2007-08 2001-02 The diagram represents equal number of districts in each interval. The manufacturing sub sector (of the secondary sector) is surely and steadily growing in importance, particularly in the east.

10. District GDP of India 2007-08 We provide estimates for 7 years from 2001-02 to 2007-08. Estimates have been provided at three different levels- district, state and country level. Estimates are provided for aggregate GDP, Primary sector (Agriculture, Mining, Fishing, Forestry), Secondary sector (Construction, electricity, Manufacturing), Tertiary sector (Transport, Storage & Communication, Trade, Hotel & Restaurant, Public Administration, Banking & Insurance, Others) – 3 major sectors and 12 major sub-sectors of the economy.

11. As with all Indicus products, the product comes with a query software with GUI navigation which allows the user to drill down to the states via clickable maps. The users can extract data in spreadsheets, and create maps and charts with parameters.

12. Options The product is available in four versions Basic – Estimates of Aggregate GDP, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary sector GDP for 2007-08 Basic plus - Estimates of Aggregate GDP, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary sector GDP, 4 sub sectors of primary sector, 3 sub sectors of secondary sector and 5 sub sectors of tertiary sector for 2007-08 Premium - Estimates of Aggregate GDP, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary sector GDP for seven years - 2000-01 to 2007-08 Premium plus - Estimates of Aggregate GDP, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary sector GDP, 4 sub sectors of primary sector, 3 sub sectors of secondary sector and 5 sub sectors of tertiary sector for seven years - 2000-01 to 2007-08

13. For queries or placing orders please contact Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd. 2 nd Floor, Nehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi- 110002. Phone: 91-11-42512400/01 E-mail: products@indicus.net www.indicus.net

How Sectoral Shares are changing in the Indian Economy

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