This document provides an overview of foresight methods and lessons learned from international foresight exercises. It discusses how foresight can contribute to the entire policy cycle from agenda setting to evaluation. It emphasizes that foresight designs must always be customized and that foresight tools should not be the first step, but should engage stakeholders. Key methods discussed include scenarios, roadmaps, and integrating different foresight techniques. Case studies from Chile and the IMS 2020 project are also summarized.

1. Foresight Methods and Practice
Lessons Learned from International Foresight Exercises
Dr. Totti Könnölä, CEO
Insight Foresight Institute
Foresight Methodology Workshop
Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis Project
Organised by La Palma Research Centre
Date: 10-11 May/2017
Las Palmas, Gran Canaria, Spain

2. KEY MESSAGES
1. Foresight – for the whole policy cycle
2. Foresight designs – always customised
3. Foresight tools – never the first step
4. To conclude – engage the 'clients'
2

3. Innovative Entrepreneurial
AdaptiveDirectional
Climate change &
circular economy
Digitalisation, industry
4.0, AI, bio-nano-info-
cogno convergence
Inequility & platform
economy
Social media &
collaborative economy
Conflicts & post-truth
politics
Volatility, uncertainty, complexity &
ambiguity (VUCA)
Our mission
INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM
A RESPONSE TO ‘VUCA WORLD’
“We orchestrate the expertise in
entrepreneurial innovation ecosystems to
spark and drive structural changes, enhance
resilience and direct society towards social,
economic and environmental sustainability.”

4. Activation & Alignment
• Idea & Policy Labs
• Challenge Competitions
• Inspirational Speakers and
Seminars
• Communication and
Outreach
• Advocacy
Insight & Foresight
• Sectoral and Thematic
Studies
• Evaluation and Impact
Assessment
• Horizon Scanning,
Technology Maps &
Scouting
• Online Idea Management
• Scenarios & Roadmaps
Strategy & Governance
• Strategy and Planning
• Policies, Guidance and
Certification
• Governance Structures and
Design for Innovative and
Entrepreneurial
Programmes, Units,
Organisations and
Ecosystems
Training & Mentoring
• In-House Executive
Training
• Blended Intensive Courses
• Tutorials and webinars
• Mentoring
• Entrepreneur in Residence
Programming &
Implementation
• Innovation and
Intrapreneurship
Programming
• Impact Investment
• Acceleration and Venturing
• R&D Commercialisation
IFI Ecosystem Profiler©, a systematic diagnosis of your efforts to manage the ecosystem.
The bundle of IFI Solutions, applied systematically to upgrade and transform your ecosystem.
ECOSYSTEM CAPABILITIES & IFI SOLUTIONS
4

5. 1. FORESIGHT
– FOR THE WHOLE POLICY CYCLE
5

6. FORESIGHT’S CONTRIBUTION TO POLICY
CYCLE
Policy
definition
Ex-ante
impact
assessment
Policy
implemen-
tation
Evaluation
Agenda
setting
Policy options & new ideas
Ownership
Legitimacy, transparency
New policy configurations
Responsiveness of the system
Foresight
Learning
Prospective considetations

7. ADDRESSING THE FUTURES
Joseph Voros, A generic foresight process framework

8. CHILE – ANTOFAGASTA
MAIN OBJECTIVES OF COOPERATION
Principal objective of cooperation between VTT and CICITEM is to
improve the human capacities in CICITEM as a facilitator of the
regional innovation activities, especially in terms of knowledge and
technology management.
The project proposal consists of three main objectives of cooperation:
1. Capacity building in the field of
institutional leadership and
knowledge management, innovation
culture, and innovation capabilities.
2. Self-sustained innovation capacity at
CICITEM
3. Capability to create strategic vision
the regional innovation activities and
facilitate joint innovation activities in
the mining cluster

9. ANTOFAGASTA FORESIGHT CONTRIBUTIONS
9Ref. M. Dufva et al. / Futures 73 (2015) 100–111

10. VTT MINERAL ECONOMY INNOVATION
PROGRAMME
Towards Circular Mineral Economy
• Multi-technology competences enabling new innovations– e.g.
hydrometallurgy + powder metallurgy + life cycle assessment +
business models and foresight together
• Sustainable design for closing the loop with material efficient and
low energy solutions: valuable element recovery, residue utilization,
critical raw materials substitution, 3 D manufacturing (powder
based materials), remanufacturing, reuse and recycling, we
develop new solutions from secondary raw materials (out of
waste).
• Digital materials and processes (the systemic modelling factory
approach), new business models of mineral based materials. 10

11. 2. FORESIGHT DESIGNS
– ALWAYS CUSTOMISED
11

12. 0 20 40
Technology Roadmapping
Structural analysis (e.g. MICMAC)
Essays
Key Technologies
Stakeholder Mapping
Backcasting
Citizens Panels
Megatrend Analysis
Delphi
Environmental Scanning
Interviews
Trend Extrapolation
Questionnaire / Survey
SWOT Analysis
Brainstorming
Futures Workshops
Other methods
Expert Panels
Scenarios
Literature Review
Common Methods in RegionalForesight
METHODS

13. Solutions
Roadmaps
Scenarios
Drivers
Signals 1. Search
1. Create 2. Curate 3. Evaluate
1. Cluster
drivers
2. Structure
scenarios
3. Develop
scenarios
4. Define
success
scenarios
1.
Reorganize
drivers
2. Create
solutions
3. Evaluate
solutions by
scenarios
4. Select
solutions
1. Analize
future
markets
2. Identify
partners
3. Define
actions
13
Ref. Insight Foresight Institute
EXAMPLE – INTEGRATION OF FORESIGHT
METHODS

14. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future

15. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future

16. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future
Analysis of Issues
Mean-oriented analysis
Relevance > Novelty >
Probability (means)
Variance-oriented analysis
Novelty > Relevance >
Probability (variance)
Rare event oriented analysis
Inverse probability > Novelty >
Relevance (means)
ü 100% issues score best independent of the used criteria preferences
ü 50% issues that score well, but are sensitive to criteria preferences

17. The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform
Project design
CASE: Web 2.0 for foresight

18. CASE: Challenge of global foresight: lessons from
IMS scenario and roadmapping process

19. Policy and regulation (aligned and coordinated)
Decisions (bottom-up and long-term)
Collaboration (global multi-level cooperation)
Values & Behaviours (collective)
Partnerships (high connectivity (proactive & vertical or with diverse stakeholders) and long-
term)
Product & Services Life Cycle and Performance: design, production, delivery and disposal
(breakthrough innovations & high performance)
Technology (breakthrough technologies)
Localisation (cooperation across value chain globally)
Markets (new)
Standardisation, Safety, Quality and Ethics (CSR)
(voluntary and beyond law applied to products, services & processes)
Knowledge Generation and Management
(tools and systems to transform tacit knowledge into explicit and organisational)
Education (flexible, provided by different actors and fostered by firms)
Curricula (personalised)
Competence and Skills (new)
Learning (modern and flexible)
Energy (renewable; intelligent)
Natural Resources & Materials (e.g. raw materials and water)
(new or alternative and efficient use & management (i.e. recycle, reuse, etc)
Environmental Footprint (positive)
DRIVERS IMS 2020
Política
Gobernanza
Industrial
Internacional
Co-operación de I+D+i
Conocimiento
Sociedad

20. SCENARIO DESIGN OPTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
A
B
C
D
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
++
++
-
-
--
-
- -
- -
--

21. IMS 2020 Scenarios

22. § Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing which leads to
customised and 'eternal' life cycle solutions
§ Highly flexible and self-organising value chains which enable for
different ways of organising production systems, including related
infrastructures, and reduces the time between engaging with end
users and delivering a solution
§ Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of
individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of
rules and a proper regulatory framework co-designed between
governments, industries and societies
IMS 2020 Vision

23. 23
IMS Final Roadmap Process

24. 3. FORESIGHT TOOLS
– NEVER THE FIRST STEP
The following tools provide
examples of methods and
software IFI applies in its
assignments.
24

25. IFI TECHNOLOGY MAPS
Technology Map can be customized from broad market landscapes to
microscopic detail, helping you to make the right claims. It augments
traditional cognitive IPR and technology mapping processes with powerful
statistical, visual and On-Line tools.
How it works
­ Client defines strategic objectives and technologies for mapping
­ Explore visualization the landscape and your position therein, and receive our analysis
of the nature of innovation dynamics
­ Access result on-line from anywhere to refine results and for ready analytics and graph
For Who and Why
­ Start-Ups. Convince potential investors and collaborators what you’re innovation and IPR
is really worth.
­ R&D Management. Foresight that you’re investment and R&D programme is not heading
for an dead end, and optimize patenting effort.
­ Large Companies. Align your business lines with your patents, and start monitoring that
you’re new inventions match strategic priorities.
­ R&D Funding Bodies. Idenfity most potential and best strategies for R&D&I programming
and instruments or evaluate what’s accomplished
­ M&A. Document, match and visualize rapidly how IPR portfolios overlap or augment
each other.
­ Investors and Finance. Analyse industry trends and firm potential.
Technology Map’s are always tailored per client specification, and they are
delivered with with SaaS On-Line tools.
25In partnership with Tecmine.

26. IFI FORESIGHT PLATFORM
IFI Foresight Platform provides a robust online
platform for a structured stakeholder and
expert online engagement in foresight projects.
User interface
­ Submission, commenting and assessment of emerging
issues, innovation ideas, challenges etc.
Backend
­ Advanced filtering of inputs and graphical presentation
and interactive analysis of results.
The SaaS platform is always customised to the
client needs.
In partnership with Orchidea.
26

27. IFI RPM SCREENING
Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) Tools
managed by the IFI experts allow
interactive analysis of the multi-criteria
assessed issues.
Such analysis help identify issues that
are interesting not only with respect to
one but many criteria, for instance:
­ Relevance
­ Novelty
­ Feasibility
27
Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)

28. IFI ONLINE SURVEYS
28
IFI Online Surveys practice relies on the commercial
solutions of online survey providers.
The robust solutions allow intuitive user-friendly
surveys and their efficient management, incl.
flexible exportation of results for further analysis.
The IFI has extensive experience in the design and
architecture of surveys to reach the optimal
balance between user experience and research
insights for strategy work.

29. 4. TO CONCLUDE
– ENGAGE THE 'CLIENT'
29

30. CONCLUSIONS

31. KEY MESSAGES
1. Foresight – for the whole policy cycle
2. Foresight designs – always customised
3. Foresight tools – never the first step
4. To conclude – engage the 'client'
31

32. www.if-institute.org
info@if-institute.org
Insight Foresight Institute (IFI)
Avda. Concha Espina, 8-1 Dcha.
28001 Madrid, Spain
“With us, achieve game-changing strategies, implement
them effectively and reach out to have impact”

33. MANAGING DIRECTOR
Totti Könnölä
Background: Impetu Solutions, EIT, UP
Comillas, IE Business School, JCR-IPTS, VTT
DIRECTOR OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
David Cano
Background: TECOPY, IDOM
DIRECTOR OF FINANCE & OPERATIONS
Miguel Maté
Background: Telekom Austria
WE CONNECT OUR COMMUNITY WITH THE
ECOSYSTEM TO SPARK TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE
High-level Advisory Board
•Renowned global leaders and thinkers
Innovation Council
•Recognised senior experts and mentors
Expert Network
•Experts engaged in projects
Strategic Alliances
•Strategic partner organisations
OPEN COMMUNITYLEADERSHIP
33

34. Ben Martin (UK)
•SPRU, Univ. of Sussex
•(University of Cambridge)
Charles W. Wessner (US)
•Georgetown Univ.
•(National Academy of Sciences)
Dan Breznitz (CA)
•University of Toronto, Munk School of
Global Affairs
•(Georgia Tech, MIT)
Dirk Pilat (NL/FR)
• OECD Directorate for Science,
Technology and Innovation
• (OECD Committee on Industry,
Innovation and Entrepreneurship)
Emma Fernández (ES)
•Advisor, Corporate Leader
•(Indra)
Gonzalo León (ES)
•Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
•(Ministry of Education and Culture,
Science and Technology Ministry)
Göran Roos (SE/AU)
•Value Add and Ind. Growth, Econ. Dev.
Board in Adelaide
•(Innovation Performance Australia,VTT)
John Kao (US)
•Institute for Large Scale Innovation
•(Global Advisory Council on Innovation
of WEF, Harvard Business School)
Ken Guy (UK)
•Wise Guys, Ltd
•(OECD, EC JRC-IPTS, Technopolis)
Kurt Deketelaere (BE)
•LERU
•(Flemish Gov., Univ. Of Leuven)
Maria Bejuméa (ES)
•Startup Spain (South Summit)
•(Serial entrepreneur)
Mariana Mazzucato (IT/US)
•SPRU, Univ. Of Sussex
•(INNOGEN, The Open University)
Ray Garcia (US)
•Buoyant Capital
•(University of Pisa, MIT Media Lab,
University of Arizona)
Riel Milller (CA/FR)
•UNESCO
•(xperidox, OECD)
Ron Johnston (AU)
•Australian Centre of Innovation
•(Australian Commission for the Future)
HIGH LEVEL ADVISORY BOARD THRIVES OUR
STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT AND PARTNERSHIPS
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