This document discusses theory of change planning and provides examples. It explains that a theory of change clearly connects actions to hoped-for results like a roadmap. Theories of change link outcomes and activities to explain how and why an advocacy strategy leads to change. Developing a theory of change involves stating the goal, mapping activities and outcomes using "so that" chains, understanding how social change happens, ensuring organizational capacity, and agreeing on outcome measures and assumptions. The document provides a worked example of a theory of change mapping and testing assumptions to ensure the theory is plausible, feasible, and measurable.

1. THEORY OF CHANGE PLANNING
SESSION
Brian Lamb OBE
@ WANDSWORTHADVICE
23 JULY 2014
WANDSWORTHADVICE.ORG.UK

2. The Issue
Contrary to Marx’s famous
critique that philosophers have
only sought to interpret the
world not to change it –
advocates have too often sought
to change the world without first
interpreting it.

4. “A theory of change clearly expresses the relationships between
actions and hoped for results, and could be described as a
roadmap of the strategies and belief systems that make positive
change in the lives of individuals and the community.”
THEORY OF CHANGE

5. Logic Model
• Theory of Change models build from basic Logic Models.
• Logic Models form the basis of most project management
programmes.
• Logic models illustrate program components, and creating one
helps stakeholders clearly identify outcomes, inputs and
activities.
• They are helpful for breaking down the basic components of a
plan and are especially useful where there is a know
relationship with an action and its consequence.
• They often follow a format similar to this;

6. Logic Model

7. Logic
Model
Theory of
Change
Social
Theories

8. Theory of Change and Planning
• Theory of Change Models aim test why you select the activities
you do and links between this and the outcomes you expect.
• They pose more clearly what the aim and underlying
assumptions of advocacy approaches are, their
interrelationship to other parts of the political system and
stakeholders.
• They are particularly helpful where there are multiple teams
involved in the production and delivery of plans.
• They also help to deliver clarity about the respective roles of
different teams in the process and provide a good basis for
evaluation.

9. Theory of Change
• Theories of Change link outcomes and activities to explain
HOW and WHY a strategy leads to those changes.
• It is therefore more complex and rich than logic models and
more suited to advocacy campaigns.
• Advocacy campaigns are complex as they have to select from a
number of different potential strategies and make assumptions
about why something changes.
• There are many different ways change can be attempted and a
Theory of Change provides a process for testing out
assumptions and deciding on what will be bring about the
desired change.
• Advocacy is trying to align research evidence, with the
appropriate campaign and advocacy interventions to achieve
the influence to secure the change they need.

10. What are the Theory of Change Steps?
1. Stating a clear aim-the final impact you need your advocacy
to have;
2. Mapping activities to achieve your campaign aim-usually in
reverse order the impact first;
3. Mapping Outcomes and how to get there – using ‘so that’
chains to ensure the links between activities and outcomes
are understood and in place;
4. Understanding how social change happens and aligning that
with your selected activities-Outcome mapping;
5. Ensuring that Capacity of the organisation to achieve
change;
6. Agree outcome Measures and Assumptions.

11. Definitions-what’s in a word?
• Impact-the ultimate effect on the lives of those you seeking
change for
• Strategies-the overall grouping of types of activities that you
judge will lead to the change you are seeking
• Outcomes-significant changes that lead to the final impact and
a precondition of them
• Outputs the specific results of work programmes designed to
achieve your outcomes
• Activities-the work you do to achieve those outputs
• Inputs the resources you deploy to be able to undertake the
activities to achieve the outputs

12. Testing your theory of change
• When you look at the total picture, do you believe that
the theory makes sense?
• Do the stages make sense as the logical steps toward
the long-term outcome-can we give our world famous
impression of what they look like?
• Can we be able to bring about the outcomes at the
levels we have predicted?
• Is there anything going on in the real world that may
make it difficult to get this theory off the ground the
way we’ve planned it?
• What assumptions are you making about the world-
your understanding of what needs to change?

13. Testing your Theory of Change
• Is this theory of change PLAUSIBLE? Have we
created a compelling story about the pathway of
change that would lead to the long-term goal ?
• Is this theory of change FEASIBLE? Do we have the
capacities and resources to implement the strategies
that would be required to produce the outcomes?
• Is this theory MEASURABLE? Have we specified how
success will be measured clearly enough that we can
recognize progress? Are there indicators for each
outcome in a way that a researcher or evaluator can
use?

15. WORKED EXAMPLES

17. So that Chain

21. Change Law
Change Public
Attitude
Change Policy
and Practice
StrategiesInputsOutputsOutcomesImpact
State your strategies-
the really key ways by
which you hope to
bring about the change
you are seeking
Describe the outputs
from that work you
expect to happen as a
result.
State your final impact
here-e.g changes to
people lives or the final
changes you are
seeking
Theory of Change Mapping
Describe the
outcomes from that
work you expect to
happen as a result.
Agree the measures
of your Impact and
Outcomes
State your Activities-
the specific work you
will undertake to
implement the
strategies

22. Contact Details
Brian.publicaffairs@gmail.com