Claudia Ringler Virtual Presentation, National Defense University January 27, 2022

1. Water and Food Security: Issues and Outlook
Claudia Ringler
International Food Policy Research Institute
Virtual Presentation, National Defense University
January 27, 2022

2. 1. Key concepts: Food Security and Nutrition

3. Food Security (FAO)
➢ “Food security exists when all people, at all times,
have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe
and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life” (1996
World Food Summit)
▪ Over time, shift from availability to access as the social
and political dimensions of food insecurity have grown
▪ “Right to Food” first recognized in the UN Declaration of
Human Rights in 1948. Formal adoption of the Right to
Adequate Food in 1996
▪ Different levels at which food security can be analyzed:
global, regional, national, household and intra-
household

4. Globally large projected increases in total demand between
2020 and 2050 (in million metric tons, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI (2020)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
HICs 2020 LMICs 2020 HICs 2050 LMICs 2050
Fruits and vegetables All cereals
All animal-sourced foods Oilseed crops
Roots and tubers Sugar
Other crops

5. Food Insecurity has increased over the last several years using
the Prevalence of Food Insecurity Indicator
FAO SOFA (2021)
Moderate-severe food insecurity:
Smaller portion sizes, meals
are skipped
Severe food insecurity:
feeling hungry but not eating, or
not eating for an entire day,
due to lack of money or other
resources.

6. Nutrition (Unicef 1990 framework)
WASH (Water supply,
Sanitation & Hygiene)

7. 720-811 million people hungry [increase]
~2 billion people micronutrient deficient
~2 billion people overweight/obese [increase]
~22% of under-fives are stunted (too short for their age)
Nutrition concepts and facts

8. 13 December 2018 8
The first 1,000 days refers to a child's life from the
moment they are conceived until they have reached
2 years of age (24 months). This is a time when their brain,
body and immune system grows and develops significantly

9. Nutrition concepts and facts: Healthy Diets
FAO SOFA (2021)
▪ Willett et al. (2019) EAT
Lancet Commission:
“healthy diet for all”
▪ Reality that 3 billion people
cannot afford healthy diets
▪ These diets do not consider
sustainability

10. Food system employment US (5.2% of GDP in 2019)
Elements of the food system
Adapted by Christy Shy
Nutrition concepts and facts: The Food System

11. Water one of several environmental resources affected by
agriculture/food systems

12. 2. Key concepts: Water Security

13. Key Water Concepts
• 1386 billion km³ or
(333 M cu miles) of water
with 97.5% being salt water
and 2.5% being fresh water
111000 BCM of rainfall
annually, 40000 BCM
available
• Most freshwater not
accessible (ice/glacier,
deep aquifers)
• Most freshwater
withdrawn by humans
used in agriculture

14. Key Water Concepts
Source: Grey et al. (2013)
“Water security is defined as the availability of an acceptable quantity and quality
of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, coupled with an
acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments and economies”
(Sadoff and Grey 2007)

15. Water concepts
➢ Water withdrawal is different from water consumption
➢ Water use efficiency is scale dependent
➢ Human right to water (for drinking) and sanitation (2010)
➢ Four pillars of water security

16. Global crop water management needs to focus on improving
productivity of rice, wheat, sugarcane and maize (BCM,
calculated 2020)
Source: IFPRI (2020)

17. Water concepts: Measuring water security
➢ Withdrawals per capita
➢ Withdrawals over available internal resources
➢ Human Water Insecurity Experiences Scale (HWISE)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Male-First
Male-Last
Female-First
Female-Last
Male-First
Male-Last
Female-First
Female-Last
Male-First
Male-Last
Female-First
Female-Last
Male-First
Male-Last
Female-First
Female-Last
Male-First
Male-Last
Female-First
Female-Last
Male-First
Male-Last
Female-First
Female-Last
Male-First
Male-Last
Female-First
Female-Last
Ghana Kenya Nepal Niger Nigeria Senegal Uganda
Never (0 times) Rarely (1 time) Sometimes (2-5 times) Often (6-10 times) Always
In the last 2
weeks, how
frequently have
you or anyone in
your household
had to go without
washing hands
because of
problems with
water? (HWISE,
Phone surveys, 7
countries,
2020/2021)

18. Water concepts: Physical versus economic scarcity
Source: WWAP (2012)

19. Water scarcity is growing
Source: Ringler et al. (2016).

20. Source: HLPE (2015)
The role of water resources for food security and
nutrition

21. Water and Food are Linked through Climate Change

22. 3. Climate Change, Water, Food & Nutrition

23. Climate change affects precipitation, runoff and
groundwater: Here example of groundwater
Source: IFPRI (2020)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT
Annual recharge in base year Annual recharge change – HADGEM+RECP8.5
Annual recharge change – IPSL+RECP8.5

24. Climate change reduces agricultural productivity
globally …
Source: IFPRI (2020)
-14.00
-12.00
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
All food crops
All meat
products All cereals
Fruits and
vegetables
Roots and
tubers
IPSL HGEM GFDL
GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, US; HGEM Hadley Center Global Environment Model, UK
IPSL Institute Pierre Simon Laplace’s Earth System Model, FR

25. Impact of Climate Change on Cereal Trade Flows
Source: Nelson et al. (2009)

26. Food insecurity impacts largest in poor (and water scarce)
countries
IFPRI IMPACT 2019

27. Case study Pakistan: Indus faces larger challenges for water and food
security due to climate change than Ganges and Brahmaputra
Biemans et al., 2019;
Nature Sustainability

28. Pakistan crop water management almost entirely relies on irrigation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Wheat Rice Sugarcane Cotton Fruits Pulses Maize Oilseed
crops
Vegetables Roots and
Tubers
Millet Sorghum
Crop
water
consumption
(BCM)
Precip on rainfed land
Precip on Irrig land
Irrigation
Source: IFPRI (2020)

29. Case study Pakistan: Indus faces larger challenges for water and food
security due to climate change than Ganges and Brahmaputra
Biemans et al., 2019;
Nature Sustainability
• Melt water contributes 60-70% of
total discharge
• In pre monsoon season, up to
>60% of the total irrigation
withdrawals originate from
mountain snow and glacier melt
• Meltwater buffers pre-monsoon
drought
• Implications from climate change
for food security?

30. … growing net food imports in Pakistan (net trade in ‘000 mt)
Source: IFPRI (2020)
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
ASF Wheat
Fruits &
veggies Sugar Maize
Roots and
tubers Rice
2020 2050 w/o CC 2050 w CC

31. 4. Conclusions

32. Conclusions
➢ Large measurement gaps remain on what constitutes individual food and
water insecurity
➢ Both water and food security will be severely threatened by climate change
➢ Impacts are largest for poorest countries that are already water and food
insecure
➢ This will further shift food trade with growing net food imports by poorer
countries, when it should be the opposite
➢ Solutions need to consider larger food systems (f.ex. changing diets to
address water and food insecurity, climate change and other environmental
stressors)
➢ Large under-invested innovation space in agriculture (plant architecture, root
structure, transpiration efficiency) but also water