1. The document analyzes trends in African agriculture, finding a rapid rise in medium-scale farms between 5-100 hectares that now control more land than small-scale and large-scale farms in some countries. 2. Medium-scale farmers have grown over 10 times faster than smallholders and constitute the main drivers of recent agricultural growth in Africa. 3. However, land inequality is rising as land concentrations increase, threatening the inclusiveness of agricultural development and employment growth on the continent.

1. AFRICA’S CHANGING FARM STRUCTURE AND THE
EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGE
T.S. Jayne, J. Chamberlin, D. Headey, A. Chapoto, M. Muyanga, N. Sitko
Presentation at IFPRI Headquarters, Washington, DC, September 4, 2014
Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)

2. Age pyramids, rural SSA, 2015
Male
Female
62% < 25 years old
[80+]
[75-79]
[70-74]
[65-69]
[60-64]
[55-59]
[50-54]
[45-49]
[40-44]
[35-39]
[30-34]
[25-29]
[20-24]
[15-19]
[10-14]
[5-9]
[0-4]
Rural
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Source: UN Pop Council, 2013

3. Conclusion 1
Africa’s arable land is highly concentrated,
both between and within countries

4. Nine countries contain 90% of Africa’s unutilized arable land
Non-forested
unutilized land1
(million ha)
Proportion
Cumulative
Proportion
DRC 84.8 46.5% 46.5%
Angola 18.9 10.4% 56.9%
Congo 12.9 7.1% 63.9%
Zambia 10.8 5.9% 69.9%
Cameroon 10.5 5.7% 75.6%
Mozambique 9.0 4.9% 80.5%
CAR 7.1 3.9% 84.4%
Gabon 6.5 3.6% 88.0%
Sudan 5.8 3.2% 91.2%
Rest of Africa (n=45) 8.8% 100.0%

5. Clustering of rural populations: Zambia

6. Clustering of rural populations: Kenya

7. Conclusion 2
Rapid rise of medium-scale farmers (5-100 ha)

8. Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)
Landholding size
Category
Number of farms % change
(2001-2012)
% of total
farmland
Share of
landholding
2001* 2009 2012
2009 2012
cultivated
(2012)
0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%
2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%
5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%
10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%
20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%
Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate
computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

9. Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)
Landholding size
Category
Number of farms % change
(2001-2012)
% of total
farmland
Share of
landholding
2001* 2009 2012
2009 2012
cultivated
(2012)
0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%
2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%
5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%
10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%
20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%
Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate
computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

10. Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)
Landholding size
Category
Number of farms % change
(2001-2012)
% of total
farmland
Share of
landholding
2001* 2009 2012
2009 2012
cultivated
(2012)
0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%
2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%
5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%
10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%
20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%
Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate
computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

11. Crop sales by farm size, Zambia
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Mean sales (2011 Zmk ‘000s prices)
Season
0-0.99 ha
1-1.99 ha
2-4.99 ha
5+ ha
Linear (5+ ha)
11
Source: MACO CFS 2000/1 to 2010/11 and authors’ computations

12. Crop sales by farm size, Zambia
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Mean sales (2011 Zmk ‘000s prices)
Season
0-0.99 ha
1-1.99 ha
2-4.99 ha
5+ ha
Linear (5+ ha)
12
Source: MACO CFS 2000/1 to 2010/11 and authors’ computations
Largest
smallholder
farms (9%)
consistently
doing better

13. Conclusion 3
Land controlled by MS farms exceeds that of
LS (foreign + domestic combined)

14. More land cultivated/owned by MS than by large-scale,
including LS foreign investors
Large scale
(foreign+domestic)
Medium scale
(5-100 ha)
Million hectares
Ghana (cultivated) 3.08 4.21
Kenya (cultivated) 0.69 0.84
Zambia (owned) 2.11 2.47

15. Characteristics of medium-scale farmers
• In most countries:
• Urban-based
• Primary employment = salaried job
• Relatively highly educated
• Primarily men
• In central / northern Ghana:
• Most started out as small-scale farmers  scaled-up
• Acquired land from customary authorities
• Relatively land-abundant environment

16. Conclusion 4
Medium-scale farmers control more land
than small-scale farmers (0-5 ha) in Zambia
and most likely in Ghana as well

17. Large scale Medium-scale
(5-100 ha)
Small-scale
(0-5 ha)
Total land
controlled
Million hectares
Ghana
(2005)
3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37
Kenya
(2006)
0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16
Zambia
(2012)
2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67

18. Large
scale
Medium-scale
(5-100 ha)
Small-scale
(0-5 ha)
Total land
controlled
PAC
remaining
(arable +
grasslands)
Million hectares
Ghana 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37 3.56
Kenya 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16 1.01
Zambia 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67 3.35

19. Conclusion 5
The amount of land available for cropland
expansion (PAC) is between 20-35% of total
stock of arable land

20. Conclusion 5: PAC is sizeable but small in relation to land
already utilized in Kenya and Ghana
PAC / already utilized + PAC
Including forest land Excluding forest land
Ghana (cultivated) 26.8% 22.4%
Kenya (cultivated) 21.5% 19.5%
Zambia (owned) 43.1% 33.4%

21. Conclusion 6
Rising concentration of landholdings

22. Gini coefficients of landholding
Period Movement in Gini
coefficient:
Ghana (cult. area) 1992  2005 0.54  0.65
Kenya (cult. area) 1994  2006 0.51  0.55
Zambia (landholding) 2001  2012 0.42  0.49

23. Conclusions
1. Rate of growth of medium-scale farms (MS: 5-100 ha) 10 times
faster than small-scale (SS: 0-5 ha) farms
2. Despite major focus on large-scale “land grabs”, more farm land is
owned by MS farmers than by LS farms
3. Land controlled by MS farmers > that of SS farmers (0-5 ha) in at
least 1 of the 3 countries examined (probably 2/3 by 2014)
4. Mean farm size rising in some countries even while holdings are
gradually shrinking for most farm hhs
5. Rising Gini coefficients over time in landholdings
6. Potentially available cropland as % of total utilized + unutilized
arable land: ranges from 43.1% (Zambia) to 21.5% (Kenya)

24. Policy questions
1. Africa is enjoying 5% annual ag growth rates – who is
driving this growth?
2. Are ag/employment/poverty reduction strategies
compatible with countries’ land policies?
3. Will the rate of non-farm job growth depend on how
inclusive agricultural growth is (multipliers)?
4. Will a commitment to inclusive agricultural
development require area expansion and a change in
land allocation policies?

25. Stylized fact:
A stylized fact is often a broad generalization that
summarizes some complicated statistical
relationship, which although essentially true, may
have inaccuracies in the detail.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stylized_fact