Sylvain Merlen (UNDP) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt"
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As part of the seminar held by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with UNDP "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt: current state & the potential of big data"
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Semelhante a Sylvain Merlen (UNDP) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt"
Semelhante a Sylvain Merlen (UNDP) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt" (20)
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Sylvain Merlen (UNDP) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt"
- 1. UNPD and IFPRI Seminar Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt: Current state and the potential of big data 26 November 2019 UNDP Presentation: Lessons learned from comprehensive modelling and long term forecasting
- 2. Scenarios Set at the Strategic Level Governance Scenario Integrated Push Women Empowerment • Poverty drops to 11% in 2030 • GDP/capita increase of 7% • Demographic dividend is 12% larger than current path in 2030 and 30% in 2040 Governance: • GDP increased by 6% more than current path; by 2050 • GDP 26% greater than current path and GDP/capita is 16% greater ; • labor productivity doubles from 2030 projected values; • $129 billion annual revenues ANALYTICAL FINDINGS Social Justice • Life expectancy grows; • Notable change in education attainments • Material mortality decrease • HDI rank improved to 100 in 2030 from 115 in 2017;
- 4. -) All scenarios Elusive SDG targets e.g. malnutrition (SDG 2.1.1), access to wastewater collection systems (SDG 6.3.1.a) and water scarcity (SDG indicator 6.4.2). (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios + Integrated policies double SDGs target achievements - Some puzzling blind spots SDS Indicator(s) Description Estimated 2015 Target Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Goal 1.End povertyin all its forms everywhere 1.2.1.b Percentage ofpopulation below$3.10(2011$PPP)perday;Lognormal 22.3 11.1 13.7 11.3 11.5 12.3 11 6.1 -23% -2% -4% -11% 1% 45% 1.1.1.b Percentofthe population livingon lessthan $1.90(2011USD)perday 1.3 0.65 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 -8% 23% 38% 23% 38% 85% Goal 2.End hunger,achievefood securityand improved nutrition and promotesustainableagriculture 2.1.1.a Percentage ofundernourished population 4.5 3 3.2 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 -7% 0% -3% -3% -3% 7% 2.2.2.a Percentage ofmalnutrition (weightforheight<-2SD)amongchildren under5 7 3 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.4 -97% -93% -90% -93% -93% -80% Goal 3.Ensurehealthylives and promotewell-beingfor all atall ages 3.2.2 Infantmortality rate (within firstyearofbirth)in deathsperthousand newborns 17.8 12 11.4 10.9 9.3 11.1 10.9 8.5 5% 9% 23% 8% 9% 29% 3.7.1 Contraception Use (percentoffertile women) 58.5 97 68.6 69.9 69 69.4 70 72.4 -29% -28% -29% -28% -28% -25% Goal 4.Ensureinclusiveand equitablequalityeducation and promotelifelonglearningopportunities for all 4.1.1.c Primary education grosscompletion rate -Total 97.7 97 100 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.5 101.7 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4.1.1.e Lowersecondary education graduation rate -Total 78.8 97 82.2 83.5 85.4 83.1 83.7 88.2 -15% -14% -12% -14% -14% -9% Goal 6.Ensureavailabilityand sustainablemanagementof water and sanitation for all 6.1.1 Percentage ofpeople with accessto safe water 98.8 97 99 99 100 99.1 99 100 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 6.2.1 Percentage ofpeople with accessto sanitation services– Improved 50 97 94.8 94.9 97.6 95 94.9 97.8 -2% -2% 1% -2% -2% 1% 6.3.1.a Percentage ofpeople connected to wastewatercollection system 44.3 97 45.8 46 49.2 45.9 46.1 50.3 -53% -53% -49% -53% -52% -48% 6.4.2 Freshwaterwithdrawal asa percentage ofavailable freshwaterresources 148.8 74.4 138.5 138.5 138.5 138.6 138.3 138.3 -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% Goal 7.Ensureaccess to affordable,reliable,sustainableand modern energyfor all 7 7.1.1 Percentage ofpopulation with accessto electricity -Total 99.7 97 99.9 99 100 99.1 98.9 100 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% Percentage of SDG target achieved (from this selection of 13targetsacross6SDGs) 31% 46% 46% 38% 46% 62% Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push 6 Forecasted values Deviation From Target SGDs 1 2 3 4
- 5. -) All scenarios Elusive SDG targets e.g. malnutrition (SDG 2.1.1), access to wastewater collection systems (SDG 6.3.1.a) and water scarcity (SDG indicator 6.4.2). (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios SDS Indicator(s)Description Estimated 2015 Target Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Goal 1.End povertyin all its forms everywhere 1.2.1.b Percentage of population below$3.10 (2011$ PPP) per day;Lognormal 22.3 11.1 13.7 11.3 11.5 12.3 11 6.1 -1 -23% -2% -4% -11% 1% 45% 1.1.1.b Percent of the population livingon less than $1.90 (2011 USD) per day 1.3 0.65 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 -1 -8% 23% 38% 23% 38% 85% 1.a.2a Percentage of total government spendingon essential services (education, health) 18 18.7 18.7 18.6 24 18.7 18.8 22.8 1 0% -1% 28% 0% 1% 22% 1.a.1b Transfers as a percent of GDP 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.2 18.7 17.1 17.3 19.7 1 0% 1% 9% 0% 1% 15% Goal 2.End hunger,achieve food securityand improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture 2.1.1.a Percentage of undernourished population 4.5 3 3.2 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 -1 -7% 0% -3% -3% -3% 7% 2.2.2.a Percentage of malnutrition (weight for height <-2 SD) amongchildren under 5 7 3 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.4 -1 -97% -93% -90% -93% -93% -80% 2.2.2c Severe acute malnutrition (weight for height <-3 SD) amongchildren under 5 4.8 1 3 2.8 2.9 2.1 2.6 1.6 -1 -200% -180% -190% -110% -160% -60% DeviationFromTarget SGDs Forecastedvalues 1 2
- 6. -) All scenarios Elusive SDG targets e.g. malnutrition (SDG 2.1.1), access to wastewater collection systems (SDG 6.3.1.a) and water scarcity (SDG indicator 6.4.2). (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios SDS Indicator(s) Description Estimated 2015 Target Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 1.2.1.b Percentage of population below $3.10 (2011$ PPP) per day; Lognormal 22.3 11.1 13.7 11.3 11.5 12.3 11 6.1 1.1.1.b Percent of the population living on less than $1.90 (2011 USD) per day 1.3 0.65 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.a.2a Percentage of total government spending on essential services (education, health) 18 18.7 18.7 18.6 24 18.7 18.8 22.8 1.a.1b Transfers as a percent of GDP 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.2 18.7 17.1 17.3 19.7 Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture 2.1.1.a Percentage of undernourished population 4.5 3 3.2 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.2.2.a Percentage of malnutrition (weight for height <-2 SD) among children under 5 7 3 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.4 2.2.2c Severe acute malnutrition (weight for height <-3 SD) among children under 5 4.8 1 3 2.8 2.9 2.1 2.6 1.6 SGDs Forecasted values 1 2
- 7. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios SDS Indicator(s) Description Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 1.2.1.b Percentage of population below $3.10 (2011$ PPP) per day; Lognormal -23% -2% -4% -11% 1% 45% 1.1.1.b Percent of the population living on less than $1.90 (2011 USD) per day -8% 23% 38% 23% 38% 85% 1.a.2a Percentage of total government spending on essential services (education, health) 0% -1% 28% 0% 1% 22% 1.a.1b Transfers as a percent of GDP 0% 1% 9% 0% 1% 15% Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture 2.1.1.a Percentage of undernourished population -7% 0% -3% -3% -3% 7% 2.2.2.a Percentage of malnutrition (weight for height <-2 SD) among children under 5 -97% -93% -90% -93% -93% -80% 2.2.2c Severe acute malnutrition (weight for height <-3 SD) among children under 5 -200% -180% -190% -110% -160% -60% Deviation From Target SGDs 1 2
- 8. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (World Bank SDGs Diagnosis – 2018) Wasted Obese
- 9. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ANALYTICAL FINDINGS S o u rc e : Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals? Jonathan Moyer and Steve Hedden, Wo r l d D e v e l o p m e n t , Fo r t h co m i n g 2 0 2 0 ) Percent of countries achieving selected SDG indicator targets in 2015, 2030
- 10. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios SUMMARY • Malnutrition, Poverty and to a lesser extent undernourishment not responding to various policy scenarios • Social justice scenario indicate social protection would help • But incomplete evidence of impact of social programmes on malnutrition
- 11. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios MORE INQUIRY AND ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED • Mechanism at plat may not be purely economic • Egypt “puches below its weight” on malnutrition • Causes unclear: • Food systems? • Advocacy? • Early childhood support? • More analysis and Innovation needed • Big data?
- 12. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED
- 13. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED Item 2014 2015 2016 2017 Subscribers of Cell phone (million line) 95.84 93.50 96.25 99.50 Prevalence rate of cell phone (%) 112.19 107.47 108.64 110.34 Users of internet through cell phones (million users) 20.28 25.24 28.77 31.78
- 14. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED Big data? Sources: Mckinsey global institute, Twitter, Cisco, EMC, SAS, IBM, MEPTEC.
Notas do Editor
- UNDP jointly with University of Denver is making available the International Futures tool, a systems dynamics model that can help understand interlinkages across the SDGs. The model and database provide insights into the current trajectory of Egypt in achieving the SDGs by 2030, and how alternative policy scenarios can accelerate progress on the SDGs, while balancing them across the three pillars of sustainable development. In addition to developing an analytical paper, the UNDP-Pardee team facilitates training on the understanding of the IFs tool and its database, and enables government officials to undertake their own analysis. Extended follow-up training can be arranged to help governments institutionalize the use of the tool in their policy making bodies. World Bank developed an SDG trajectory analysis to shed light into on-track and off-track SDG indicators in Egypt. By benchmarking Egypt SDGs by SDGs with “peer countries” based on cross-plots of GDP per capita against several SDG targets and – where the correlation is sufficiently high – using elasticities of those targets to income to project future trajectory of those indicators based on growth assumptions. The analysis provided an in-depth overview of data and progress on the SDGs in Egypt, and challenges and opportunities related to finance. Through the support of UNDESA’s development account project, a baseline and gap analysis is being conducted on multi-stakeholder engagement and integrated policies in Egypt. This will entail mapping stakeholders across of all sectors and institutions, using a matrix of actors, interests, strategies, relations, to help identify potential trade-offs and synergies of investments around the SDGs.
- Economic Development scenario focuses on objectives described in the Economic Development Pillar of Egypt’s Vision 2030, modeling a future in which Egypt takes a traditional approach to pursuing economic growth. By 2030, the Egyptian economy is more open and attractive to foreign investors, resulting in increases in trade and inflows of FDI. The government is focused on improving the business environment as well as expanding investments in research and development (R&D). And finally, the population is better equipped for the employment opportunities of tomorrow, with increased enrollment in vocational programs and in science and engineering fields at the tertiary level. Social Justice: In Vision 2030, Egypt’s Social Justice Pillar - focusing such as education, access to social services, and the protection of the most marginalized populations. In this report, the Social Justice scenario models increases in access to and quality of education (with a particular focus on tertiary education), improvements in health outcomes (particularly the incidence of NCDs), and provides additional income (via transfers) to poorer households. Women Empowerment: The scenario models improved access to family planning services leading to a reduction in fertility. It also assumes women’s participation in the workforce increases from 23% in 2018 to 38 percent in 2030. Both the reduction in fertility rates and increase in female labor force participation assume the successful achievement of targets set by Egypt’s Ministry of Planning in the Economic Development Pillar of Vision 2030. Governance: Transparency; Government Effectiveness Index; security. objective is to promote security, transparency, and effectiveness to better align governance with public expectations. This scenario corresponds to the Fourth Pillar of Egypt’s Vision 2030: Transparency and Efficiency of Government Institutions. The Governance scenario models an improvement in three facets of governance: security, effectiveness, and transparency. The threat of widespread internal conflict is effectually eliminated, whereas in the Current Path it remains a looming possibility through 2030. Integrated Push: This scenario allows to understand the possibilities of a comprehensive development program and explore the trade-offs and synergies both within and between scenarios.
- Open Source Constantly updated, Can be tailored (sub national level, adapt to specific environment) 47 SDG targets, hundreds of variables, for 5 scenarios Select where baseline is available and target set unequivocally
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.
- Finding 9: The tools used for this analysis do not cover all 169 SDG targets and 224 indicators. At the same time, some indicators are simulated that have not yet received a national target (e.g. 11.6.2, 12.3, 16.1.1.b). This situation prevents a full analysis of achievements by 2030. In addition, there is no known prioritization of SDGs (weighting the achievement of some SDGs more heavily than others) that will enable the comparison of policy scenarios quantitatively.