Keith Wiebe, Shanila Dunston, Jim Woodhill, Steven Prager, and Ignacio Perez WEBINAR Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool Co-Organized by the Food Security Portal, IFPRI, and the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) DEC 18, 2019 - 10:00 AM TO 11:00 AM EST

2. Global Foresight Modeling
for Food and Agriculture
Results from the IMPACT Model
Keith Wiebe
k.wiebe@cigar.org
International Food Policy Research Institute
Washington DC, 18 December 2019

3. Exploring alternative futures to 2050
Scenarios of population, income, technology, climate, & policy

4. Collaboration in foresight modeling
CGIAR foresight team
AfricaRice, Bioversity, CIAT, CIFOR, CIMMYT,
CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IFPRI, IITA, ILRI,
IRRI, IWMI, and WorldFish
AgMIP
PIK, Purdue, Wageningen, EC/JRC, IIASA,
NIES, USDA/ERS, and others
Other partners
Oxford, CSIRO, World Bank, IFAD, ADB,
NEDA, KREI, FAO, OECD, and others

5. The IMPACT system of models
Increased investment in ● agricultural R&D
● irrigation and water-use efficiency
● improved access to markets

6. Live demo

8. Enhancing foresight for
global food systems change
Visit:
www.foresight4food.net

9. Foresight and Scenarios in Simple Terms
Scenario 1: Crocodile lunch
Scenario 2: Lucky escape
Scenario 3: Smooth ride
Scenario 4: unseen dead end
FORESIGHT

10. Food Systems Model
Link to Blog and
Diagram

11. Framework for Understanding Foresight
Link to Framework
Document

12. Food system foresight workshops in Ghana, Zambia and Nepal

14. Foresight should
be demand
driven…
Three different examples
of demand:
Program Level – AVISA
General Context and
Decision Support – BID
Specific Decision Support -
WB

15. Climate Impacts in LAC

16. • Developed in
conjunction
with the World
Bank, foresight
analyses have
served as both
context and
decision
support
information.
Several more
on the way.

18. The role of foresight tools in
food and agriculture-related decision-making.
Some examples at the European Commission
Webinar Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool
Webinar, 18 December 2019
Ignacio Pérez Domínguez
Joint Research Centre, Directorate D Sustainable Resources
Unit D4 Economics of Agriculture

19. Economic model support to CAP
Outlook Trade
BioeconomyClimate Change

20. Operational Models for Foresight work
CAPRI
agriculture, static,
EU-regional
AGLINK-COSIMO
agriculture, dynamic, global
AGMEMOD
agriculture, dynamic, EU Member
States
IFM-CAP
agriculture, static,
EU farms, supply
MAGNET/GTAP
all sectors, ag. focus, static, global
GLOBIOM
agriculture and forestry, global
POLES
energy, EU Member States
hard link
soft link
iterative link

21. Climate Change and CAP: EcAMPA
(Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture)
20% emission target,
no subsidies
20% emission target,
80% subsidies
Domestic production Effects, Beef Supply, % change versus 2030 baseline

22. Climate Change: AGMIP & PESETA
 JRC contribution to the AGMIP project (www.agmip.org)
 PESETA: Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the
EU based on bottom-up Analysis.
 Main model used: CAPRI
 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: "business as usual" prospective view about
the world, including assumptions about macroeconomic developments to
2050
 Climate Change Effect: assessed through the potential effects on agricultural
yields of a RCP8.5 (i.e. "high climate change") climate trajectories
Pure biophysical
effect
Market-adjusted
effect

23. The European Commission’s science
and knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
THANK YOU !
ignacio.perez-dominguez@ec.europa.eu

24. Q & A