Impacts on food systems, poverty and diets
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James Thurlow BOOK LAUNCH COVID-19 & Global Food Security: 2 Years Later MAR 7, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:00AM EST
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Impacts on food systems, poverty and diets
- 1. Presenter James Thurlow, IFPRI Impacts on food systems, poverty and diets
- 2. What did we get wrong? Why? • People and firms adapted well • Governments introduced mitigating policies • Global shocks were less severe than predicted -7.7% -7.5% -10.0% -3.4% -5.9% -3.8% Bangladesh Kenya Nigeria Simulation Official Deviation in GDP in 2020 (from no-COVID scenario) Smaller than expected impacts Source: IFPRI simulations conducted in mid-2020 using multiplier analysis
- 3. Agriculture was a safety-net What did we get right? • Agri-food systems were resilient • Rural (and poor) households were less exposed to shocks Long road to recovery 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Bangladesh Kenya Nigeria Deviation in national poverty rate (from no-COVID scenario) Source: IFPRI simulations conducted in late-2021 using RIAPA model