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Ghana’s Economic and Agricultural Transformation: Past Performance and Future Prospects

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Xinshen Diao, Shashidara Kolavalli, and Danielle Resnick
BOOK LAUNCH
Ghana’s Economic and Agricultural Transformation: Past Performance and Future Prospects
Co-Organized by IFPRI and the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
OCT 9, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT

Publicada em: Governo e ONGs
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Ghana’s Economic and Agricultural Transformation: Past Performance and Future Prospects

  1. 1. Ghana’s Economic and Agricultural Transformation Past Performance and Future Prospects Edited by XINSHEN DIAO, PETER HAZELL, SHASHIDHARA KOLAVALLI, AND DANIELLE RESNICK International Food Policy Research Institute Oxford University Press
  2. 2. Ghana’s Economic Structural Transformation and Urbanization Impacts on Rural Jobs Xinshen Diao International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, DC | October 9, 2019
  3. 3. Structural Transformation without Industrialization Source: Authors’ calculation using data obtained from Gronigen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC, Timmer et al. 2015) -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2000-2015 1984-2000 Economywide labor productivity growth within sectors and from structural change (annual growth rate, percentages) Within-sector growth in agriculture Within-sector growth in mining Within-sector growth in manufacturing Structural change due to manufacturing Productivity growth in manufacturing Negative role of manufacturing to structural change Structural change from non- manufacturing
  4. 4. Urbanization and Declined Shares of Rural Agricultural Households Source: Authors’ calculation using data of 2000 and 2010 Census. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 With city Without city With city Without city With city Without city North South National Distribution of rural households by family members' primary jobs: agriculture only, nonagriculture only, and mixed occupations Agri. only & no jobs Non-agri. only Mixed
  5. 5. Rural Nonfarm Jobs Concentrated in Informal Activities Source: Authors’ calculation using data of 2000 and 2010 Census. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 NorthSouthNational Types of nonfarm jobs amongst ‘non-agriculture only’ rural households Formal only Inf. mfg only Inf. trade only Inf. mfg & trade Inf. others Formal & informal combined
  6. 6. Urbanization and the Uptake of Labor-saving Technologies in Farming 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Landproductivity Labor productivity Trends in land and labor productivity, 1991-2011The induced innovation hypothesis predicts that urbanization should lead to more intensive farming practices; we find only limited support to this hypothesis in fertilizer use, and it is mainly used in the North to offset declining soil fertility and regardless the level of urbanization across districts Mechanization and increased use of herbicides can raise labor productivity but may not lead to higher land productivity Source: Authors’ calculation using GGDC data for agricultural value added and agricultural
  7. 7. Ghana’s Agricultural Transformation Shashidhara Kolavalli Development Strategist Washington | October 9, 2019
  8. 8. Decent Performance  Ghana’s agriculture has performed reasonably well: o Agricultural output grew at 4.5 percent in 1994-2013; and it has kept up with national demand for most cereals. o Both land and labor productivities have increased, with much faster growth in labor productivity. o Increased ag labor productivity along with diversification into nonagricultural opportunities has increased rural incomes and helped reduce rural poverty.  But Ghana has failed to o Compete internationally to develop new lines of exports apart from cocoa. o Or compete domestically to reduce growing dependence on imports of rice, poultry, and many other processed foods.
  9. 9. Could the Growth be Sustained? Not without increasing land productivity through adoption of intensive farming practices o Agricultural growth has depended predominantly on expanding the cropped area At the expense of virgin forest and by shortening fallow periods Forest frontier is nearly exhausted o There is little evidence that farmers are successfully switching to yield enhancing technologies that will be essential for future agricultural growth o There is a growing soil fertility problem – considerable soil degradation, compromising robust crop responses to fertilizer applications
  10. 10. Why hasn’t the Country Done Better?  The government has maintained a favorable domestic terms of trade for agriculture, but that has not been enough  Government has made few direct effective interventions along the value chain since reforms, other than in cocoa  Little investment beyond cocoa sector o Ag spending has fallen short of 10% government total expenditure  only 2.1-2.8% since 2001 o The amount spent by the Cocobod on cocoa far outweighs the amount spent by the government on the noncocoa subsectors  Though returns of spending are higher in noncocoa than cocoa  Had the government done more to help farmers access improved seeds, irrigation, roads, credit, markets, etc., there might have been more widespread adoption of yield- enhancing technologies to raise land productivity 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Constant2006GHS,million Total Noncocoa Cocoa Source: Authors’ illustration based on compiled data in ch.7 of the book
  11. 11. Does the Cocobod Offer Some lessons?  Caveats: o The model is not suitable for all crops o The board is arguably more centralized than it needs to be, and there is considerable room to increase accountability and improve efficiency o While it addresses critical areas, it hasn’t been entirely successful  What are some areas that need to be addressed proactively in value chains o Quality control (standardization) – exports of vegetables, for example o Inadequate supply response to private investments downstream – cashew and rice milling, o Appropriate fertilizers and nutrient management packages for many field crops o Diseases – tomato disease complex in Upper East region o Availability of improved seeds – government is primarily just a buyer
  12. 12. Governance and Policy Choice in Ghana Danielle Resnick International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, DC | October 9, 2019
  13. 13. Where do Policy Choices Emerge?  Strong democracies, like Ghana, often associated with pro-poor investments and outcomes fundamental for growth  But transformation requires solving market failures (Hausmann et al. 2008) o Self-discovery externalities – identifying new products o Coordination externalities – simultaneous investments upstream and downstream o Missing public inputs – legislation, accreditation, infrastructure  Experience from “developmental states” highlights the need for political commitment, public sector capacity, and state-business coordination
  14. 14. Commitment to Policy Driven by Electoral Cycle  Two-party system engenders big spending initiatives to win voters  Backtracking and volatility is common with change of political administration  Political budget cycles pose ongoing risk, especially in light of debt distress Source: IMF DataMapper and WDI
  15. 15. Public Sector Capacity Remains Weak  Public sector institutional reforms were not pursued with the same vigor as wage bill reforms  Low capacity to implement and engage in M&E of large-scale initiatives, or to anticipate opportunities and threats (e.g. MD2 pineapple)  Exacerbated by devolution of agricultural functions to local governments, which are severely under-resourced Rule of Law Participation & Human Rights Public Management Business environment Infrastructure Human development 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 IbrahimGovernanceIndex(0to100) Source: Ibrahim Index of African Governance
  16. 16. State-Business Coordination needs to be Enhanced  Historically fraught relations with private sector, weak business associations  Deficit spending increases interest rates and reduces credit for private sector  Sub-standard legal and regulatory environment 10.5 10.9 11.7 13.1 14.7 16.2 23 23.1 28 28.3 31.8 61.8 65.7 68.5 Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP), 2018 Source: WDI Distance to frontier of good practices in laws and regulations (100= better) Source: Enabling the Business of Agriculture, World Bank 2017
  17. 17. Current Agricultural Initiatives: New Wine in Old Bottles?  Agriculture central in national policy and efforts to improve seed regulation and develop value-chains  But tendency towards high profile projects that win votes rather than address market failures  Examples of policy inconsistencies o 1D1F relies on commercial banks to provide loans to private entrepreneurs but financing public debt proving more attractive o Local government extension agents budget-constrained but new districts constantly created (216 to 254) Ag extension motorbikes sitting idle due to no fuel or licenses, Shai Osudoku, 2019 Photo: Danielle Resnick, IFPRI
  18. 18. Conclusions  Many agricultural growth opportunities could be seized with more proactive policies on ag R&D, extension, financial systems, value chain coordination, input quality, and more  Implementing these policies effectively requires long-term commitment, capacity, and coordination so, need strategic, targeted approach that is affordable and politically appealing  Options o “First mover” strategies focused on a non-traditional export crop or priority food staple that competes with imports o Spatially concentrated agro-clusters and agro-industrial parks

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