Martien van Nieuwkoop Policy Seminar Discussion on the Key Findings of FAO’s 2018 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report Oct 10, 2018 - 12:15 pm to 01:45 pm EDT

1. BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR
FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION
Martien van Nieuwkoop
Director, Agriculture GP
October 10, 2018

2. Rising hunger –
First signs of a new
trend?

3. • Turnaround in hunger trend: continuing AND
broadening
• Happening seemingly in absence of major headwinds,
BUT …
• Some dark clouds emerging in the skies
• Is the increase in hunger reflective of broader issues in
the global food system ?
• Food insecurity driven by many factors: climate
change; conflict; governance; and population growth
2
SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE SOBERING RESULTS

4. WHAT DOES INCREASING HUNGER MEAN FOR ACHIEVING SDG-1?
945
1,352
784
736
821
654
# OF UNDERNOURISHED # OF POOR (BELOW
$1.90/DAY)
MILLION PEOPLE
2005 2015 2017 (est)
14.5
20.8
10.6
10
10.9
8.6
% UNDERNOURISHED % POOR
PERCENT OF POPULATION
2005 2015 2017 (est)2017 (proj) 2017 (proj)

5. WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT POVERTY AND CLIMATE CHANGE?
Climate change can significantly reduce food availability in poor regions
Agriculture is the main sectoral driver explaining higher poverty
due to climate change
(Summary of climate change impacts on the number of people living below
the extreme poverty threshold, by driver)
Source: Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. World Bank 2016.
Prioritize not only today’s hunger &
malnutrition hotspots but also areas
most vulnerable to climate risks

6. Moving Forward:
Boosting Food System’s
Resilience

7. IPCC Special Report: Discouraging Progress
Moving towards 1.5⁰ C global warming faster than expected
• 1.5°C is the new 2.0°C : Only 12 years to take
corrective action – or risk catastrophic
environmental impacts
• Paris Commitments not enough, will get us to 3.0°C
• Limiting warming to 1.5°C is barely feasible; every year
delayed reduces window of feasibility by half
• Limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared with 2.0°C is
projected to smaller net reductions in yields of
maize, rice, wheat etc., particularly in SSA, South-Eas
Asia, and Central and South-America
• There are limits to adaptive capacity
• Under many scenarios, carbon removal has to be
part of the solution, what does this mean for food
security?

8. BOOST CLIMATE-SMART
AGRICULTURE, SECURE
THE TRIPLE WIN
Increased productivity
Enhanced resilience
Reduced emissions

9. What if we scaled up AWD+ across the World?
Source: CCAFS 2014, Yan et al. 2009
PRODUCTIVITY
▪ 100% adoption save ~400k Gigaliters
▪ Greater impact in combination with
micro-dose fertilizer and other practices
RESILIENCE
▪ + 15% yield
▪ +$ 178 income/ha
▪ 70% smallholders
▪ ~100 million ha
Adoption on
50% of Eligible
Area
Adoption on
100% of Eligible
Area
+32 Million Tons
+65 Million Tons
Food Production
Emissions Reduction
- 0.1 Gt of CO2e
per year - 0.2 Gt CO2e
per year
▪ >2.5% of global direct
Ag. emissions
EMISSIONS
Irrigation Water Savings
-30%
AWD+ can be applied in all
irrigated areas with flexible
water management systems.

10. FAOSTAT, National Geographic, Charles 2013
PRODUCTIVITY
▪ Efficiency could reduce nitrogen use
and leaching by -30-60%, and reduce
cost by $10-20/acre.
▪ Reduced harmful algal bloom
outbreaks in lakes
ENVIRONMENT
▪ Potential to:
▪ Double grain yields
▪ +~550 calories/day/person
▪ Double (or more) incomes
Increased Fertilizer
application to
maximum efficiency
+175 Million Tons
Africa Production Increase
China Emissions Reduction
- 0.2 Gt CO2e
per year
▪ Reduction in crops emissions
>2.5% of global direct Ag.
emissions
▪ Additional reductions from less
fertilizer use and higher N
production efficiency
EMISSIONS
Reduction of 50%
emissions from
synthetic fertilizer
Reduced Nitrogen Leaching in China
-30%
Major non-CO₂ source:
reducing N over-use has major
benefits (tropospheric ozone;
secondary particulate air
pollution)
Reduction of 50%
emissions + reduced
nitrogen production
- 0.36 Gt CO2e
per year
What if We Reduced China’s excess fertilizer and applied it in Africa Instead?

11. PRODUCTIVITY
▪ Higher incomes for
farmers
▪ Healthier animals
▪ Biodiversity conservation
▪ Reduced land pressure
RESILIENCE
Potential for reduction of livestock
emissions if all producers became
as efficient as the Top 10%:
▪ - 1.8 Gt CO2e/yr in 2010
▪ > 3 Gt CO2e/yr in 2050
EMISSIONS
Using only currently
available technologies:
▪ Feeding practices,
▪ Animal husbandry
▪ Health management
In Livestock, Higher productivity  Lower Emission Intensity
Based on results of the GLEAM Model, FAO 2013, Extrapolations
Emissions(kgCO2-eq/kgMilk)
Milk Production per Cow
Global Livestock Emissions
-30%
▪ Lower emissions intensity also
contributes to food security.
▪ In Africa higher productivity
would have major impact on
poverty.
2000 kg milk/cow/year
What if we made all livestock farmers as efficient as the Top 10%?

12. Source: McKinsey & Company “Innovation with a Purpose: The role of technology innovation in accelerating food systems transformation.
Technology can solve a large part of today’s
problems with the Food System
internationally – McKinsey’s “Transformative
Twelve”
HARNESS DISRUPTIVE
TECHNOLOGY

13. Moving Forward:
At the WBG

14. 13
MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CONSIDERATIONS IN PROJECT FINANCING

15. OUR ANALYSIS: CSA PROFILES
In 2017/18 we financed CSA investments generating over US$ 2bn
in climate change co-benefits.
WB Is Increasingly Engaging on Climate Smart Agriculture
We work with clients to better understand CSA challenges and identify
investments: CSA Profiles & Climate Smart Investment Plans (CSIPs)

16. Step up the WBG Ag Observatory
Exploiting Break-Through Disruptive Technologies & Innovation
“Big Data + Artificial Intelligence + Machine Learning”
Field
Satellite Radar
Ground Radar
Ground
Weather
Station
• 1.5 million Virtual Met Stations
• Every 9 km across the terrestrial
surface of the earth
• 7 billion data points updated
every 6 hours
Providing agricultural intelligence for the World Bank Group and Partners

17. •Famine Action Mechanism (FAM)
• Partners: UN, ICRC (Red Cross), Microsoft, Google and Amazon
• Pioneer global mechanism to prevent future famines
• Expected to reduce humanitarian costs by as much as 30%
• Use predictive power of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to detect early
signs of food shortages – through Artemis (estimate and forecast future food crises)
• Roll out to vulnerable countries first, and eventually provide global coverage
•Global Index Insurance Facility
• Scale up use of extreme weather insurance instruments to help the poor and most
vulnerable farmers affected by climate change better manage risks
Gaining Momentum through FAM
Innovative public-private partnership to end famine

18. Public Finance: Aligning Incentives via Appropriate Policies Is Key for Adoption
US$ 500 Billion - “Subsidies” to agriculture per year (50 countries)
• 30% of GVA in sector – clearly the big ‘Elephant’ in the room
• Cause of major allocative and technical inefficiencies.
• Major driver of GHG emissions – methane, nitrous oxide, black carbon, etc.
• Key outstanding question: can these monies be a force for good?
A CSA gamechanger? Repurposing agricultural subsidies
• Align farmer incentives by removing distortions driving bad decisions
• Allow freer trade – essential part of any global adaptation strategy e
• Respond to consumer choice and promote nutritious food choices
• Promote resource use efficiency – for both adaptation and mitigation benefits

19. Maximizing Finance for Development in Agriculture
Leveraging Private Sector Investment in CSA Supply Chains for Smallholders
Entry point: Agriculture supply chain governance
• Improve the enabling environment
• Promote principles of responsible investments
• Climate Smart Investment Plans: exploit private, public sector and climate investors synergies for triple bottom line
Better supply chain governance can reduce the food loss & waste (FLW) footprint

20. THANK YOU
Martien van Nieuwkoop, Director, Agriculture GP
MvanNieuwkoop@worldbank.org