Siegfried Falk IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES Food vs Fuel V2.0: Impacts of Biofuels on Agricultural Markets and Food Security Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) JAN 24, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EST

1. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
IFPRI SEMINAR SERIES
Food vs Fuel V2.0: Impacts of Biofuels on Agricultural Markets and Food Security
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
JAN 24, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EST
ISTA Mielke GmbH
Hamburg, Germany
siegfried.falk@oilworld.de
www.twitter.com/_OILWORLD
Biodiesel Trends
Siegfried Falk
Co-editor of OIL WORLD

2. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
Monthly prices from January 1972 until 19 Jan 2023
72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 21
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Palm oil, crude cif Rott.
Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill
Soya Oil & Palm Oil: Monthly Prices (US-$/MT)

3. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
Daily prices from Oct 20 19 un til Jan 19 , 202 3
Oct Ja20 Apr Jly Oct Ja21 Apr Jly Oct Ja22 Apr Jly Oct Ja23
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
-150
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1350
Daily Prices of Palm Oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T)
C rude palm oil (c if R otterdam )
N earby gas
oil futures
(ICE)
C PO vs . Gas oil (y2)

4. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023F
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Argentina
Brazil
USA
Indonesia
EU-27
Production of Biodiesel in Key Countries (Mn T)
India China Arg. EU-27 Brazil Indon. USA
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
17 Oils & Fats: Usage Growth in Major Countries
MnT

5. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23F
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
P rod uction C ons um p tio n
Change From Year Ago in Mn T
17 OILS & FATS: Production & Use

6. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17 19/20 22/23
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Domestic Disappearance
Domestic Oil & Fat Output
U.S.A: Production & Demand of Oils/Fats
Mn T
Net imports
of ~ 5 Mn T
Effects of Biodiesel/HVO Boom…

7. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
M onth ly prices from July 2002 until 19 Jan 2023
2 0 04 2 0 06 2 0 08 2 0 10 2 0 12 2 0 14 2 0 16 2 0 18 2 0 20 2 0 22
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Tallow, E dible, US , fob Gulf
P alm olein RB D, M al, fob
Monthly Prices of Tallow & RBD Palm Olein (US-$/T)
0 7 /0 8
0 8 /0 9
0 9 /1 0
1 0 /1 1
1 1 /1 2
1 2 /1 3
1 3 /1 4
1 4 /1 5
1 5 /1 6
1 6 /1 7
1 7 /1 8
1 8 /1 9
1 9 /2 0
2 0 /2 1
2 1 /2 2
2 2 /2 3 F
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Net exports
Net Imports
U.S.A.:Trade of Tallow & Greases ( 1000 T )

8. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16 Capacities (end of the year)
Production
Admixture in %
BRAZIL: Biodiesel Production & Capacities
Mn T
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Production Exports
Dom. Use
BRAZIL: Soya Oil Production & Usage (Mn T)

9. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023F
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Production Exports
Dom. Use
INDONESIA: Palm Oil Production & Exports (Mn T)

10. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23F
2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
3,3
3,5
3,7
3,9
4,1
4,3
4,5
4,7
Malaysia Indonesia
Annual Palm Oil Yields (T/ha)
T/ha
J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
production (Y1)
mat. area (Y2)
Annual Changes
PALM OIL : World Production & Area
Thd ha
Mn T

11. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
UCO/Tallow
Rapeseed Oil
Palm Oil
EU-27: Usage of Major Biodiesel Feedstock
Mn T

12. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023F
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Production (Y1)
Change (Y2)
World Production of Biodiesel (Mn T)

13. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
others
used oils
tallow
rape oil
palm oil
soya oil
Biodiesel Use of Major Feedstock (Mn T)
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 2
2 0 2 3 F
0
5
10
15
20
Biodiesel Use of Major Feedstock (Mn T)
Palm oil
Soya oil
Tallow
Rape oil
Used oil

14. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23F
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
biofuel
food and other
Total Usage in Mn T
17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption
89/90 92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17 19/20 22/23
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
for food and other use
for biofuel
Average Per Capita Use of Oils & Fats in kilos

15. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
Thank you for your attention!
More market info? Just get in touch with me:
siegfried.falk@oilworld.de
fon +49 40 761 05050
OIL WORLD market information is available daily, weekly
& monthly
www.oilworld.de
www.twitter.com/_OILWORLD

16. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Capacities (end of the year)
Production
ARGENTINA: Biodiesel Production & Capacities
Mn T

17. Your Independent Information Provider Jan 2023
0 9 /1 0
1 0 /1 1
1 1 /1 2
1 2 /1 3
1 3 /1 4
1 4 /1 5
1 5 /1 6
1 6 /1 7
1 7 /1 8
1 8 /1 9
1 9 /2 0
2 0 /2 1
2 1 /2 2
2 2 /2 3 F
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
India China
17 Oils & Fats: Usage Growth in Major Countries
MnT
0 9 /1 0
1 0 /1 1
1 1 /1 2
1 2 /1 3
1 3 /1 4
1 4 /1 5
1 5 /1 6
1 6 /1 7
1 7 /1 8
1 8 /1 9
1 9 /2 0
2 0 /2 1
2 1 /2 2
2 2 /2 3 F
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
U.S.A. Argentina
Brazil Indonesia
17 Oils & Fats: Usage Growth in Major Countries
MnT
Biodiesel sector … Food/biodiesel sector …