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2016年6月6日 | 北京
樊胜根
国际食物政策研究所 所长
回顾2015
可持续发展目标
呼吁各国各地采取行动
巴黎气候变化
大会
减缓温室气体排放的
承诺
世贸组织部长
级会议
承诺消除扭曲的贸易政
策
石油和粮食价格持续走低
油价: 创11年新低
粮价:连续第四年下降
难民危机
来自阿富汗、厄立特里亚、
缅甸、叙利亚等国的难民
人数不断增多
+
经济增速放缓
尤其是新兴经济体
2015
气候变化
厄尔尼诺: 埃塞俄比亚遭
遇30年来最严重的干旱
区域和国家动态
中东与北非
• 叙利亚冲突
• 营养过剩发病率增加
南亚
• 孟加拉国:新营养与食品安全政策
• 印度:新环境卫生与灌溉项目
非洲
• 18个国家实现减贫的千年发展目标
• 厄尔尼诺; 尼日利亚、索马里、南
苏丹冲突
拉丁美洲和加勒比
• 实现减少贫穷与饥饿的千年发
展目标
• 肥胖和超重人数增加
东亚
• 中国:新食品安全法
• 亚洲基础设施投资银行建立
《2016 全球粮食政策报告》概览
价值链与
食物系统
区域发展绿色能源 可持续饮食
气候变化、 小
农、可持续发
展目标
健康土壤
粮食损失和
浪费
水资源管理
粮食政策
指标
全球食物系统面临持续和不断出现的挑战
照片: Ngo Trung; USDA; Goyette; UNDP; Niehaus
气候变化,极端
天气事件
农业相关风险、
食品安全丑闻
紧缺的耕地
和水资源
持续的战争
人口增长、城市化、
饮食结构变化
食物系统需在经济和社会发展中发挥更大的作用
一个新的全球食物系统可以实现
联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)
新的全球食物系统
高效
包容
气候智能
可持续
营养健康导向
友好的营商环境
超过半数的目标与食物
安全和营养相关
高效:
用稀缺的资源生产更多的食物
 采用可持续的集约型农业技术
• 耐逆性、高产品种,如豆类
• 在中国东北,精细的农业生产方式增加了10%的水稻产量以及51-97 %的氮素利
用效率 (Zhao 2013)
 减少食物损失和浪费
• 加大对农产品加工、冷藏、运输、包装的投入
• 在国家和地区层面进行消费者教育与宣传(如“光盘行动”)
 采取有效的改革制度
• 引进试验,将补贴支持和价格支持转化为收入支持
包容 :
增加小农的机会
支持小农可以促进多个可持续发展目标的实现—重要实例
Source: Nwanze and Fan 2016
 推进高产及气候智能型农作物品种选育,例如:C4 水稻
• 耐旱和耐热;能在炎热、干旱的环境下生长
• 增加水稻产量 (50%) 及氮素利用效率(30%) (IRRI 2012)
 利用农业的温室气体减排潜力
• 肯尼亚的“三胜”:适应+减缓+生产力 (Bryan etal. 2011)
 推动低碳政策和市场激励机制
• 巴西的低碳农业计划
• 整合小农户进入碳交易市场
 低碳农业的计划和优先决策
• 邀请所有利益相关者参与规划、优先级设置和决策过程
气候智能:
促进多赢解决方案
可持续:
满足一代又一代的需求
促进土壤健康 (Koo et al. 2016)
• 投资多年生植物改善土壤健康
• 承认土壤、土地、生态系统服务为公共物品
鼓励更好的水管理
(Ringler and Passarelli 2016)
• 引入激励机制,例如税收、配额、使用权
• 投资传统技术(如水坝)和非传统技术(如
绿色基础设施)
普及现代能源的使用
(Arndt, Msangi, and Thurlow 2016)
• 利用太阳能发电和生物燃料的潜力
以营养与健康为导向:
用价值链改善营养
以营养为导向的价值链干预模式:
• 增加高营养食物的供给
• 例如:改进生产模式,扩大市场机遇,
使用“生物强化”技术
• 改善食物需求结构
• 例如:向学校提供营养膳食,行为改变
宣传策略,向不健康食物征税
• 加强包括食品安全在内的价值链管理
• 例如:提供食品质量保证,改进监管结
构,确保信息透明
数据来源: Allen, De Brauw, Gelli 2016
0
10
20
30
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
农村
城市
中国儿童发育不良发病率
数据来源: 世界卫生组织 2015
中国成人超重比例的变化趋势
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2014
友好的营商环境:
为市场化解决方案提
供环境
取缔扭曲的贸易政策
• 取消伤害穷人利益、损害农业市场发
展的关税和贸易壁垒
更有目的地发放补贴
• 资源应该集中于公共物品,支持高营
养食物的生产
鼓励私营部门参与
• 创造健康的营商环境,例如:加强物
流、通讯和能源领域的基础设施建设,
提供资本支持等
现有的全球食物
系统将不可持
续……
……我们必须采
取改革,促进可
持续发展目标的
实现。
Photo credit: IFAD/Susan Beccio

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2016全球粮食政策报告概览