Launch of IFPRI’s 2012 Global Food Policy Report with Shenggen Fan, Director General of IFPRI; Mary Bohman, Administrator of the Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture; Michael Elliott, President and CEO of ONE; Andrew Steer, President and CEO of World Resources Institute. IFPRI, 14 March 2013
1. 1
Shenggen Fan
Director General
Washington, DC | March 14, 2013
LOREM IPSUM DOLOREM
2. Highlights
Food Policy in 2012 Agricultural Green Economy Women in
Productivity Agriculture
Employment in US and EU Farm Regional Looking Ahead
Agriculture Policies Developments
Food Policy Indicators: Tracking Change
3. The global food system remained fragile
Old and new FAO estimates of undernourished people worldwide,
1990-2010
New numbers,
same problem
Drought and
volatile food prices
United States, Eastern
Europe, Central Asia, Southern
Africa, Sahel
Conflict
DRC, Mali, Somalia, Syria
Long-term drivers of
global food system
4.
5. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
A Changing Global Harvest
Agricultural productivity growth has accelerated substantially
Location and composition of production have changed
(more in developing countries; more high-value crops)
Sources of production growth and regional contributions
are different (sustained high growth in Brazil and China; low growth in Africa)
For long-term productivity growth Sources of growth in global agricultural production
Develop national capacities
in agricultural R&D
Provide better genetic materials
and inputs
Create enabling environment
for rapid technology adoption
6. GREEN ECONOMY
Sustainable and Growing, Food Secure?
Rio+20 conference introduced several new initiatives
(e.g. Green Economy, Zero Hunger Challenge, Zero Net Land and Forest Degradation)
Bioeconomy also gained ground
Rio+20 lacked firm policy roadmap and timeframe
What is needed? Rio+20: Towards a “green economy”
Clear measures, timeframes,
and accountability mechanisms
Incentives and information for
civil society and private sector
7. WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE
Closing the Gender Gap
Role of gender equality in agriculture gained growing attention
(FAO’s State of Food and Agriculture and World Bank’s World Development Report)
Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index was created
(IFPRI, USAID, and Oxford Poverty and Human Development)
Development programming moving
from gender-blind to gender-aware programs
More needs to be done to
Build evidence base
Strengthen women’s assets
Engage with women’s groups
as real development partners
8. EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE
Jobs for Africa’s Youth
Africa south of the Sahara has the fastest growing population
and the youngest (additional 150 million people in rural areas from 2010-50)
Engagement of Africa’s youth in agriculture is crucial
to gain “youth dividend”
To realize agriculture’s potential Rural population share and number of people entering rural
and urban labor markets in Africa south of the Sahara, 1950–2050
Constraints to
land, capital, and skills must be
eased
Programs must be friendly
to needs of the youth
Clear vision and political
commitment is needed
9. US AND EU FARM POLICIES
The Subsidy Habit
Farm subsidies in the US and EU persist, the debate continues
Not much was done to expand productivity-increasing public
agricultural research
What must be done? Composition of EU agricultural budget, annual expenditures, 1990-2010
Revisit farm policies
Promote non-distorting
trade policies
Engage in WTO
trade negotiations
10. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Policy Choices on the Ground
Africa Arab World
Agricultural transformation accelerated Long-term policies and investments
was initiated by several countries
Lack of capacity to cope with
increased shocks and conflict Food security remains a key challenge
East Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
China released plan for large Increased role of the region in
agricultural R&D investment food supply
Myanmar took steps to reform the Public agricultural R&D declined in
agricultural sector smaller, poorer countries
Thailand implemented scheme which led Continued divide in land holdings
to uncompetitive rice prices
South Asia
Bangladesh planned a path for food security
India embraced FDI in the retail sector
Nepal proposed to increase fertilizer subsidies
11. LOOKING AHEAD
Scenarios for the Future of Food
Difference in population at risk of hunger (%), compared with baseline, 2050
HIGHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER ENERGY PRICES
0 20
15
10
-10
5
0
-20 E. Asia & Europe & LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World
Pacific C. Asia
LOWER MEAT DEMAND
0
-30 -2
-4
-6
-8
-40 -10
E. Asia & Europe & LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World S. Asia S.E. Asia Asia SSA LAC World
Pacific C. Asia
Lower meat demand in high-income countries
Lower meat demand in high-income countries + Brazil and China
12. FOOD POLICY INDICATORS
Tracking Change
1 Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators
2 Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development
3 Global Hunger Index
4 Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators
5 Total and Partial Factor Productivity
13. OUTLOOK FOR 2013
Walk the Talk!
Build resilience of global and national food systems and the poor
Give attention to dry areas
Further advance the nexus approach
(agriculture, nutrition, health & food, water, land, energy)
Fulfill L’Aquila commitments, build national capacities,
and support implementation of country-led processes
Ensure post-2015 development agenda focuses on poor people
while pursuing sustainable development goals