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2012 GFPR Launch at IFPRI March 14 2013

Launch of IFPRI’s 2012 Global Food Policy Report with Shenggen Fan, Director General of IFPRI; Mary Bohman, Administrator of the Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture; Michael Elliott, President and CEO of ONE; Andrew Steer, President and CEO of World Resources Institute. IFPRI, 14 March 2013

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2012 GFPR Launch at IFPRI March 14 2013

  1. 1. 1 Shenggen Fan Director General Washington, DC | March 14, 2013LOREM IPSUM DOLOREM
  2. 2. HighlightsFood Policy in 2012 Agricultural Green Economy Women in Productivity Agriculture Employment in US and EU Farm Regional Looking Ahead Agriculture Policies Developments Food Policy Indicators: Tracking Change
  3. 3. The global food system remained fragileOld and new FAO estimates of undernourished people worldwide, 1990-2010  New numbers, same problem  Drought and volatile food prices United States, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Southern Africa, Sahel  Conflict DRC, Mali, Somalia, Syria  Long-term drivers of global food system
  4. 4. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYA Changing Global Harvest Agricultural productivity growth has accelerated substantially Location and composition of production have changed (more in developing countries; more high-value crops) Sources of production growth and regional contributions are different (sustained high growth in Brazil and China; low growth in Africa)For long-term productivity growth Sources of growth in global agricultural production Develop national capacities in agricultural R&D Provide better genetic materials and inputs Create enabling environment for rapid technology adoption
  5. 5. GREEN ECONOMYSustainable and Growing, Food Secure? Rio+20 conference introduced several new initiatives (e.g. Green Economy, Zero Hunger Challenge, Zero Net Land and Forest Degradation) Bioeconomy also gained ground Rio+20 lacked firm policy roadmap and timeframeWhat is needed? Rio+20: Towards a “green economy” Clear measures, timeframes, and accountability mechanisms Incentives and information for civil society and private sector
  6. 6. WOMEN IN AGRICULTUREClosing the Gender Gap Role of gender equality in agriculture gained growing attention (FAO’s State of Food and Agriculture and World Bank’s World Development Report) Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index was created (IFPRI, USAID, and Oxford Poverty and Human Development) Development programming moving from gender-blind to gender-aware programsMore needs to be done to Build evidence base Strengthen women’s assets Engage with women’s groups as real development partners
  7. 7. EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTUREJobs for Africa’s Youth Africa south of the Sahara has the fastest growing population and the youngest (additional 150 million people in rural areas from 2010-50) Engagement of Africa’s youth in agriculture is crucial to gain “youth dividend”To realize agriculture’s potential Rural population share and number of people entering rural and urban labor markets in Africa south of the Sahara, 1950–2050 Constraints to land, capital, and skills must be eased Programs must be friendly to needs of the youth Clear vision and political commitment is needed
  8. 8. US AND EU FARM POLICIESThe Subsidy Habit Farm subsidies in the US and EU persist, the debate continues Not much was done to expand productivity-increasing public agricultural researchWhat must be done? Composition of EU agricultural budget, annual expenditures, 1990-2010 Revisit farm policies Promote non-distorting trade policies Engage in WTO trade negotiations
  9. 9. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Policy Choices on the GroundAfrica Arab World Agricultural transformation accelerated  Long-term policies and investments was initiated by several countries Lack of capacity to cope with increased shocks and conflict  Food security remains a key challengeEast Asia Latin America and the Caribbean China released plan for large  Increased role of the region in agricultural R&D investment food supply Myanmar took steps to reform the  Public agricultural R&D declined in agricultural sector smaller, poorer countries Thailand implemented scheme which led  Continued divide in land holdings to uncompetitive rice pricesSouth Asia Bangladesh planned a path for food security India embraced FDI in the retail sector Nepal proposed to increase fertilizer subsidies
  10. 10. LOOKING AHEAD Scenarios for the Future of Food Difference in population at risk of hunger (%), compared with baseline, 2050 HIGHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER ENERGY PRICES 0 20 15 10-10 5 0-20 E. Asia & Europe & LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World Pacific C. Asia LOWER MEAT DEMAND 0-30 -2 -4 -6 -8-40 -10 E. Asia & Europe & LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World S. Asia S.E. Asia Asia SSA LAC World Pacific C. Asia Lower meat demand in high-income countries Lower meat demand in high-income countries + Brazil and China
  11. 11. FOOD POLICY INDICATORSTracking Change 1 Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators 2 Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development 3 Global Hunger Index 4 Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators 5 Total and Partial Factor Productivity
  12. 12. OUTLOOK FOR 2013Walk the Talk! Build resilience of global and national food systems and the poor Give attention to dry areas Further advance the nexus approach (agriculture, nutrition, health & food, water, land, energy) Fulfill L’Aquila commitments, build national capacities, and support implementation of country-led processes Ensure post-2015 development agenda focuses on poor people while pursuing sustainable development goals