Yvonne Brown - DMUG 2014

DMUG 2014: Emissions Factors Tookit Update
© - Copyright 2014 Bureau Veritas – All rights reserved
2nd December 2014
Yvonne Brown
Technical Director
Air Quality

Overview
► Reminder of steps involved in calculating factors
► Changes to
 Emissions Factors for NOx and PM
 Changes to Fleet Information
 Euro Compositions
► How have emissions changed?
► Alternative Technologies
► Other Updates
► Questions?
© - Copyright 2014 Bureau Veritas – All rights reserved Bureau Veritas Air Quality 2

Reminder of Basic Steps
►Final Emissions Factors (g/km) take account of the
following steps
 Speed related Emissions Functions (polynomial equations with
coefficients)
 Degradation Factors (only Petrol Cars/LGVs Euro 1-4)
 Fuel Scaling Factors
 Fleet Information
• Euro compositions
• Vehicle compositions and sizes
• Region and Road Type
►Which of these have changed varies by vehicle type and
therefore determines the overall change

Changes to NOx
► EFT v5 updated DfT TRL Emissions Factors for NOx to COPERT v8.1
► EFT v6 updated COPERTv10 for NOx
 Euro 5 and 6 diesel cars – coefficients updated
 Euro 5 and 6 LGVs – coefficients updated based on scaling of diesel cars.
 Update aimed at reflecting more recent evidence from real-world emissions
performance
 No other changes to emissions functions
► Degradation calculations applied to petrol Cars and LGVs are
unchanged.
► Fuel Scaling Factors updated from TRL to R-AEA based
 Marginal changes

Changes to PM
► EFT v5 kept PM EFs as DfT TRL but added road abrasion
► EFT v6 updated exhaust EFs to COPERTv10
 Polynomial functions for diesel vehicles
 Petrol vehicles assume “urban” <50kph, “rural” 50>80kph,”motorway “ >80kph
► No degradation is applied to PM.
► Brake and Tyre Wear, Abrasion Factors remain same
► Fuel Scaling Factors updated from TRL to R-AEA based
 Diesel vehicles – factors range from ~ 0.8 – 1.
• Similar to previous – slightly lower
 Petrol vehicles – factors range from ~ 0.88 in 2010 to 0.4 in 2020/2030
• Significantly lower – previously assumed to be 1
 Scaling factors are applied to the function

Changes to NOx Euro EFs (no fleet assumptions)
► 1% change to HGVs – due to updated fuel scaling
► Petrol Cars unchanged
► Diesel Cars (<2L Engine):
 Euro 5 – 71% higher than EFT5.2. (~25% higher than Euro 4)
 Euro 6 – 34% higher than EFT5.2 (~65% reduction on Euro 5)

Changes to Exhaust PM Euro EFs
(no fleet assumptions)
► Diesel Cars (<2L Engine):
 Pre-Euro 1 -2 tend to be slightly higher
 Euro 3 – 6 tend to be slightly lower

► Petrol Cars (<2L Engine):
 All significantly lower - greater effects of scaling factors in later years

► HGVs and Buses
 Pre-Euro 1 – Euro 2 lower
 Euro 3 – 6 higher
 2020 slighter lower due fuel scaling factors

Updated Fleet Compositions
► Updated Fleet Composition provided separately for England (outside
London), Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
 Based on ANPR and traffic data analysis undertaken by AEA
► For each area, vehicle type fleet provided for Urban/Rural/Motorway
(outside London)
► Separate London vehicle type fleet provided by TfL for Central, Inner,
Outer and Motorway
► Default Basic Fleet now includes some alternative vehicles:
1Petrol car
2Diesel car
3Taxi (black cab)
4Petrol LGV
5Diesel LGV
6Rigid
7Artic
8Bus and coach
9Motorcycle
10HybridCarPetrol
11PlugInHybridCarPetrol
12HybridCarDiesel
13ElectricCar
14ElectricLGV
► No EFs for Hybrid Diesel Cars – assumed to be same as Diesel Cars
until further information is available

Updated Fleet Compositions
► By 2030 15% of the fleet veh/km (Urban-England) is estimated to be
hybrid/electric
 4% of car fleet by 2020, 17% of the car fleet by 2030

Updated Age Profiles - Cars
► Updated information including ANPR data
► National age profile derived along with London age profile to reflect LEZ (by
TFL) (Note: ULEZ not included – only just consulted)
► 60% car veh/km estimated to be Euro 6 by 2020
 Petrol and diesel car age profiles broadly similar, Diesel Euro 5 generally higher
 Very similar to EFT5.2c slightly faster Euro 6 evolution

Updated Age Profiles - LGV
► 70% car veh/km estimated to be Euro 6 by 2020
 Very similar to EFT5.2c

Euro Profiles

Euro Profiles
► HGVs – marginal changes since EFT 5.2c
► ~85% Rigid HGVs veh/km Euro 6 by 2020. ~95% for Artic HGV

How have NOx emissions factors changed?
► Taking account of functions,
scaling and fleet weighting
► Petrol cars and buses are similar
► Minor changes to Rigid and Artic
HGVs
 changes in Euro compositions
alongside vehicle size changes
► Diesel Cars and LGVs are
significantly higher
 30-40% from 2015
 updated emissions coefficients, small
changes in fuel scaling factors, and
updated Euro fleet information
 Dominance in fleet from 2015 onwards
Table 1: Summary of changes in NOx Emission Factor at 30kph
2010 2015 2020 2025
Petrol Car 0% -2% -1% 0%
Diesel Car 3% 30% 35% 39%
Diesel LGV 0% 38% 41% 38%
Rigid HGV 0% 4% 5% 1%
Artic HGV 2% 2% 1% -1%
Bus and
0% 1% 1% 1%
Coach
Table 2: Summary of changes in NOx Emission Factor at 80kph
2010 2015 2020 2025
Petrol Car 0% -2% -1% 0%
Diesel Car 3% 29% 35% 38%
Diesel LGV 0% 38% 41% 38%
Rigid HGV 0% 6% 8% 1%
Artic HGV 2% 3% 4% 3%
Bus and
Coach
0% 1% 1% 1%

How have PM exhaust emissions factors changed?
► Petrol cars significantly lower
 Early years mainly due to COPERT
 Later years fuel scaling
► Diesel cars higher esp beyond
2015
 Euro 6 and 6 factors increased and
fleet proportions become more
dominant
► Diesel LGVs
 Reductions in early years because EFs
for Euro 1-4 tend to be lower and
dominant in fleet. Overtime, Euro and
6 dominant with significantly higher EFs
Table 3: Summary of changes in PM10 Emission Factor at 30kph
2010 2015 2020 2025
Petrol Car
-50% -58% -74% -74%
Diesel Car
-17% 12% 30% 96%
Diesel LGV
-41% -8% 13% 89%
Rigid HGV
-44% 3% 7% 4%
Artic HGV
-42% 16% 18% 15%
Bus and
Coach
-40% 2% 2% 4%
2010 2015 2020 2025
Petrol Car -68% -80% -87% -87%
Diesel Car -7% -10% -2% 46%
Diesel LGV 9% 3% 25% 104%
Rigid HGV -10% -1% 14% 17%
Artic HGV -7% 6% 15% 17%
Bus and
15% 15% 16% 25%
Coach

How have PM exhaust emissions factors changed?
► Rigid and Artic HGVs
 Early years mainly due to COPERT and
fleet size assumptions changes
 At higher speeds – bigger increases
beyond 2015 due to Euro VI
proportions in fleet with EFs about
50% higher
► Buses
 Increased in early years due to higher
EFs for Euro II – IV
 Euro V and VI factors increased and
fleet proportions become more
dominant in later year
2010 2015 2020 2025
Petrol Car
-50% -58% -74% -74%
Diesel Car
-17% 12% 30% 96%
Diesel LGV
-41% -8% 13% 89%
Rigid HGV
-44% 3% 7% 4%
Artic HGV
-42% 16% 18% 15%
Bus and
Coach
-40% 2% 2% 4%
2010 2015 2020 2025
Petrol Car -68% -80% -87% -87%
Diesel Car -7% -10% -2% 46%
Diesel LGV 9% 3% 25% 104%
Rigid HGV -10% -1% 14% 17%
Artic HGV -7% 6% 15% 17%
Bus and
15% 15% 16% 25%
Coach

Alternative Technologies - assumptions
► EFT has options for users to provide their own alternative fleet
incorporating the following technologies:
 Full Hybrid Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric cars and vans
 Hybrid-Diesel Cars
 Battery Electric cars and vans and Fuel Cell Vehicles (zero tailpipe emissions)
 Alternative fuels: CNG Buses, LPG cars, High Strength Biofuels (E85
Bioethanol, B100 Biodiesel)
 Retrofitting DPF, SCR
 Hybrid Buses
 Only including available information – not all alternatives are included
► Scaling factors or emission factors assumed are same as those in NAEI
available here
► Current best estimates and Information updated when available

Other Updates
►User Defined Euro splits and vehicle fleet options improved
►Option 3 allows user to define petrol/diesel car proportions
►Updated v6.0.1 July 2014
 fixed issue with CO2 Output (tonnes not kg)
►Updated v6.0.2 Dec 2014
 Bug Fix for 100% HDV runtime error in Basic Split
 Alternative Vehicles output error fixed
• g/km/sec and annual emissions – g/km output not affected.
►Future updates in line with NAEI methodology changes

© - Copyright 2014 Bureau Veritas – All rights reserved
http://laqm.defra.gov.uk
http://aqma.defra.gov.uk
http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/1rsw
LAQMHelpdesk@uk.bureauveritas.com
Admin.rsw@uk.bureauveritas.com
Helpdesk Tel: 0800 032 7953
Yvonne Brown
yvonne.brown@uk.bureauveritas.com
0207 661 0762
Thank You

Yvonne Brown - DMUG 2014

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