Storm in a teacup? Adapting to the impacts of climate change in China

Storm in a teacup? Adapting to the impacts of climate change in China Thomas Tanner (IDS) Declan Conway (University of East Anglia) 20 th November 2008

“ Climate change is a major global issue of common concern to the international community. It is an issue involving both environment and development, but it is ultimately an issue of development.” China’s National Climate Change Programme June 2007.

China and Climate Adaptation – Why the Interest? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Increasing awareness and recognition of exposure and sensitivity; - Floods 2007 - Spring Festival 2008

Climate Change in China: Impacts and adaptation Defra-DFID China-UK collaboration Prof Lin Erda [email_address] Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Declan Conway, UEA [email_address]

Achievements in Phase I (2001-04) Climate Change Scenarios Temperature to increase by 3~4℃ and rainfall to increase 10~12% by 2080s Crop Yield Changes Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

Phase II (2005-08) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers ,[object Object],[object Object]

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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],‘ Optimistic’ results

Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west China Semi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty Range of different farming systems

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Ningxia regional Integrated Assessment – objectives

Adaptation guidelines for Ningxia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

An adaptation framework for Ningxia Working with UKCIP Adaptation as a process 3 Identify adaptation options 1 Assess climate risks 2 Integrate development and adaptation goals 4 Prioritise options New knowledge/ research 6 Monitoring and evaluation 5 Implementation

High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation ,[object Object],[object Object]

High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation ,[object Object]

An applied approach to climate change impacts in the Chinese water sector 4 case studies of major development programmes Team of water resources, economics and agriculture experts Feeding into NDRC thinking and strategy on adaptation

Rationale ,[object Object],[object Object],Adaptation: Assessing how project objectives might be affected by future climate-related impacts, and identifying options to manage impacts and exploit opportunities.

Time Current End-date Current Project objective Indicator Effect of climate change – failure to meet Objective Project progress with climate change Without climate change Change due to planned infrastructure, management changes etc within Development Project

Case Studies Project Location Flood control and land drainage management project Huai River Basin Integrated Water and environment management project Hai River Basin Water Conservation Plan Hai River Basin Integrated Restoration Plan Shi Yan River Basin Climate change impacts Increased flooding Increased reservoir inflow Increased water deficit Reduced catchment runoff

Case Studies Project Adaptation options Flood control and land drainage management project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Integrated Water and environment management project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Water Conservation Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],Integrated Restoration Plan ,[object Object],[object Object]

What do the results tell us? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Challenges: Climate Science ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Climate science Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts) Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts)

Methods: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Opportunities: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Project description Identify climate- sensitive components Problem analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 Phase Steps

Project description Identify climate- sensitive components Problem analysis Semi-quantitative analysis of impacts Quantitative analysis of adaptation options ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 2 Phase Steps

Project description Identify climate- sensitive components Problem analysis Semi-quantitative analysis of impacts Quantitative analysis of adaptation options Multiple Criteria Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 2 3 Phase Steps

Experiences from Testing in Water Sector in China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

General Experiences and Lessons for Climate Screening in China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Possible Next Steps ,[object Object],Further case study learning – other sectors Improved applied climate science – uncertainty

Storm in a teacup? Adapting to the impacts of climate change in China

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Storm in a teacup? Adapting to the impacts of climate change in China

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