Erik Stevens lecture at the Future of Mediaworkers Conference in Reykjavik Iceland, 2015.

1. 2020 Starts Tomorrow
-Future Skills Profiles in the Media Industry
Erik Stevens,
Chairman of
the Board

2. A short introduction of GOC:
- Dutch consultancy firm and training centre
with main focus on Creative Industry
- Owned by social partners (employers & unions)
- Core activities: (labour)market research, technical
and ‘soft skills’ training, organisational
consultancy (strategy, productivity), development
of new programs for educational institutions &
labour mobility (from job to job)

3. In 2013 GOC researchers travelled to 2020 to search
for new competences in the media industry
(specifically: publishing & media production).
With which insights did they travel back in time?

4. First: an experiment
Three questions

5. 1.
A racquet and ball cost together €1,10. The racquet
costs €1 more than the ball. How much does the ball
cost? _____cent

6. 2.
If 5 machines need 5 minutes to make 5 panels, how
much time does it take for 100 machines to make 100
panels? ____minutes

7. 3.
In a pond grows a tuft of waterlilies. Every day this
tuft doubles in size. If it costs 48 days for this tuft to
cover up the whole of the pond, how long does it take
to cover half the pond? ____days

8. The ‘easy route’ answers:
1. 10
2. 100
3. 24 days

9. The right answers:
1. 5
2. 5
3. 47 days

10. The relevance of this experiment:
When thinking about the future we tend to choose
the ‘easy route’ for ourselves.

11. Why?
Because it ‘protects’ us from uneasy thoughts. It’s a
self-defense mechanism which eases the inevitable
pain accompanying change.
Rational thought – analysis – forces us to ‘open our
eyes’, see the consequences and act accordingly.
This, however, is not mainstream!

12. A bizar illustration:
In our annual research on economic developments in
the Dutch graphical industry, in 2014 we asked the
following question:
“What is the main strategic focus of your company at
this moment?

13. A bizar example:Main strategic focus % of total
No specific strategy: “we do our thing” 46%
Growth with existing products/services 17%
Cost reduction 14%
Broadening products/services offering 12%
Development of new business models 8%
Realize a merger or acquisition 2%
Back to core business 1%
100%
Red = denying or downplaying rapid changes
(total 78%)
Black = realizing change is necessary (22%)

14. The last 2 years:
• Many presentations of the research findings
• Educational institutions are more readily changing
than companies
• The market sees new companies (new entrants)
taking over business

15. As Einstein said:
If you keep doing what you did, you keep getting
what you got.
The only trouble is: the market is changing rapidly and
traditional business activities are losing ground.

16. Let’s look at some market changes:
Advertising:
- Mobile marketing
- Video ads
- Content marketing
- ‘customer journey’
“Bonding instead of branding”

17. Let’s look at some market changes:
Journalism:
- Online first/offline second
- Database publishing
- Big data
- Video/audio/text ‘integration’
“(Big) data has become just as important as content”

18. Let’s look at some market changes:
Media production:
- Cross media capabilities (one stop shopping)
- Project management (Scrum)
- Efficiency: digitization of production logistics

19. What does this mean for skills?
What these trends show is
the big dilemma:
Generalist or specialist??
Technology seems to force us to broaden our
competences, but this makes in depth skills
nearly impossible

20. Looking at 2020 we tackled this dilemma by defining
‘competence profiles’ instead of ‘job descriptions’:
trained for new skills, whichever the job
We found and described 10 competence profiles

22. 10 profiles:
- Concept manager
- Community manager
- Web care assistant
- Interactive marketeer
- Content logistics manager
- Content logistics engineer
- Content engineer
- Data journalist
- Data visualization-designer
- 3D-print designer

23. The Concept Manager develops content concepts based on market
research; a strategic, analytical thinker and can-do-er!
The Community Manager engages with consumers and fans online;
an energetic network builder and a social media expert!
The Webcare Specialist monitors online conversations and answers
customers’ questions; A service oriented social media fan!
The Interactive Marketeer designs and initiates interactive
marketing campaigns; a creative and cross-disciplinary multitasker!
The Content Logistics Manager is responsible for back-end service
and logistics of web2print sales; an enterprising problem-solver!

24. The Content Logistics Engineer plans and monitors multimedia
production processes; a concise and precise problem solver!
The Content Engineer edits and formats digital files, writes scripts
and is up to date on digital media and technologies; eager to learn
and do!
The 3D Print Designer supervises the 3D printing procees from
sketch to product; a creative and experimenting designer!
The Data Visualization designer creates audiovisual content based on
large datasets; an analytical thinker and a creative designer!
The Data journalist collects, processes and interprets data and
creates content based on them; a inquisitive storyteller.

25. The essential skills of 2020…
To Curate
To Create
To Communicate
To Convert

26. … are required to perform core activities
Aggregation
Content production
Advertisement
and
distribution
Realization

27. Now, 2 years later, we might add the following
footnotes:
- the growing necessity of Cooperative skills
(network economy, solving the dilemma generalist-
specialist)
- The importance of Audio Visual (concepts &
production)

28. So…. What is next?
What do we do today to be prepared
for 2020?
What does this mean for our HR
policies, for company training
programs, for educational
institutions?

29. Rationally or logically we would say:
•2020 starts tomorrow
•So we already start training and educating
•Not for new jobs, but for essential skills
•We have to learn how to learn. And… how to
keep learning.
Ideally we would hope that:
•Companies demand this from your training
institutions!
•Schools and training institutions invest in future
skills profiles!

30. BUT: remember the mental shortcuts
and the defence mechanisms?
A further illustration:

35. Even if we know that our brain is
playing tricks with us, it’s still
hard to resist and therefore we
tend to persist in denial…

37. KEEP THAT IN MIND WHEN
LOOKING AT THE FUTURE!!!!!!!

38. P.S.
The publication “2020 starts
tomorrow” can be downloaded
from our site:
http://www.goc.nl/Onderzoeken-
Publicaties/2020-starts-tomorrow