This document discusses quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings from community projects. It emphasizes the importance of: 1) Calculating savings as the difference between a baseline scenario and project scenario over the project lifetime, rather than just annual savings. 2) Considering representative activity data and emission factors rather than generic saving factors, where possible. 3) Accounting for the uncertainty around how long behavior changes and other interventions will persist.

1. GHG Emission Savings from Projects Matthew Brander, Ecometrica

2. Overview of presentation: Why quantify emission savings from community projects? How to measure project savings. A warning about emission savings factors. The importance of project lifetimes – rather than just annual savings. Getting the right balance between data quality and other commitments Linking reported carbon savings from communities to regional or national carbon accounts. Uncertainty about the stickiness/lifetime of behaviour change

3. Why quantify emission reductions: Helps in project design, i.e. allows efforts to be focused where the biggest emission reductions can be achieved, and helps to identify (and then address) project activities which increase emissions. Getting feedback on actual savings achieved can motivate the community. Provides information to funders on the impact of the project. Could (possibly) feed into wider assessments for regional/national mitigation planning.

6. E.g. Use representative baseline energy consumption data (primary or secondary) and apply a % saving factor to the baseline data to derive “project scenario” activity data. And apply the appropriate emission factor, e.g. fuel oil factor, for the fuel type used.

8. The importance of intervention lifetimes – comparing interventions: Annual savings only: Annual savings from Intervention A = 10 tCO2e/yr Annual savings from Intervention B = 2 tCO2e/yr Conclusion: Intervention A saves more than Intervention B Lifetime savings: Lifetime savings from Intervention A = 10 tCO2e/yr * 2 years = 20 tCO2e Lifetime savings from Intervention B = 2 tCO2e/yr * 30 years = 60 tCO2e Conclusion: Intervention B saves more than Intervention A

9. Getting the right balance between measurement and implementation Weigh up the time required for better measurement and the value of increased accuracy. Sometimes better quality data doesn’t take longer to collect. Mix and match primary and secondary data

11. Baseline scenario Emissions (tCO e) 2 Carbon savings Project scenario Years Uncertainty about stickiness/ lifetime of behaviour change: How long does behaviour change last for?

13. Bicycle B: unknown how long it will last forWe need good longitudinal studies on how long behaviour change lasts for – to estimate the carbon savings from behaviour change projects.

14. Good sources for factors and secondary data: Emission Factors: Defra 2010.http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/economy/business-efficiency/reporting/ IAG 2010 – electricity factors. http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/analysts_group/analysts_group.aspx CCF review report appendix – derived emission factors How Low Can We Go (p38) – food factors. http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/how_low_can_we_go.pdf ADAS 2009 – food factors. http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Menu=Menu&Module=More&Location=None&Completed=0&ProjectID=15650 University of Bath 2008. Inventory of Carbon and Energy. Version 1.6a. http://www.bath.ac.uk/mech-eng/sert/embodied/

15. Good sources for factors and secondary data: Emission Saving Factors: Energy Saving Trust web site. http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/Energy-saving-assumptions BUT – implicit baseline and other assumptions Secondary Data: DECC. Domestic electricity consumption. http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/regional/mlsoa_llsoa/mlsoa_2008/mlsoa_2008.aspx DECC. Domestic gas consumption. http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/regional/mlsoa_llsoa/mlsoa_2008/mlsoa_2008.aspx

16. Good sources for factors and secondary data: Intervention Lifetimes: CERT 2011. http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Pages/MoreInformation.aspx?file=Carbon%20Emissions%20Reduction%20Target%20Carbon%20Reduction%20Matrix.xls&refer=Sustainability/Environment/EnergyEff/InfProjMngrs Carbon Trust (2010). Persistence Factors. http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/cut-carbon-reduce-costs/calculate/carbon-footprinting/Documents/persistence-factor-taxonomy.pdf