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AUTOMOTIVE MATERIALS: COMPETITIVE PRESSURE INCREASES
- 1. S&P Global Mobility Automotive Materials: Competitive Pressures Increase
- 2. High Level Market Drivers: Automotive Megatrends
- 3. High Level Market Drivers: Automotive Megatrends Connected Car Electrification Driver Assistance Semiconductors Sustainability
- 4. Driver Assistance Goals Impact to Material Adoption Driver Assistance: Bust or Boom for Lightweighting and New Materials? • Fewer Collisions – Repair or Replace Components – Insurance Ratings Change – Emergency Response Impact? • Longer Vehicle Lifespans? – Last mile delivery vehicles – Subscription only offerings – Over the air software updates – Interior changes • Durability • Retrofits? S&P Global Mobility 4 • Less body repair needs may reduce the repair requirement impact to material decisions – +50% replacement rate for Rogue rear closure • Longer engineering lifespan changes design input and requirements – Corrosion – Fatigue • Sensor interactions – Readings through polymers • Sensor works properly • Sensor finds other vehicles
- 5. Current Market Conditions Main Drivers Electrification: Does Lightweighting Take a Back Seat? • Recent Releases of BEV designs show intensive 3rd Generation Advanced High Strength Steel Usage throughout the vehicles’ body structures – GMC Hummer – Ford Mach-E – Chevrolet Blazer SS • Aluminum usage in newest BEV versus competitor ICE – Bock, Head, Transmission eMotor(s) + Tray – Chassis components = more aluminum • Watch segments of entry • OEMs are seeking investor and regulatory approval in the BEV race S&P Global Mobility 5 • Battery Energy Density of current offerings – Single Cell Design – Single Cell Purpose – Emerging split purpose and design architectures – Racing to higher voltages • Cost structure of electrification – Raw materials Sensitivity • Significant focus on Lithium, Manganese, Cobalt Sourcing • Regulatory Structures – No fuel, no tax? – No Test Weight Classes? – “Zero Emissions” • Scope 3 emissions risk
- 6. Sustainability & Supply Chain Regulatory Risks: Scope 3 Emissions, EPR, new metrics for ASR? S&P Global Mobility 6 • Circularity of polymer components and coatings in focus • Secondary market for polymer components small • Energy content similar to coal • Chemical Plant feedstock integration activities • Recycling streams • Harmonization of total carbon accounting • Well to wheel for raw materials • Largely designed for supply chain carbon emissions accounting • Normalization of all regulatory methodologies • Raw and virgin materials in regulatory crosshairs • Energy intense material production first targets of improvement • Consumer goods beyond mobility within scope of proposals • Largely a polymers focus for consumer goods • Focus on batteries • Focus on end-of-life circularity • Burden of recycling and proper disposal shifts to the OEM Automotive Shredder Residue Scope 3 Emissions Extended Producer Responsibility
- 7. North American Auto Market
- 8. US: Light Vehicle Sales Outlook Supply Chain Constraints Alter Sales Recovery; Pent-up Demand is Vulnerable to Second Order Impacts from Macroeconomic Deterioration Resulting in Demand Destruction 8 Economic issues • US consumer outlook showing signs of stress with inflation, vehicle pricing and confidence as material concerns • Inventory and production constraints impact sales in the near-term, yet a faster transition from supply constrained to demand constrained is likely • Longer term pressure on OEM profitability • Opportunities to find right customer based on vehicle age and scrappage • Launches accelerate, mix increasingly attractive • Vehicle development costs rising • Regulatory compliance • Consumer contenting • Market conditions are shifting, yet we are already running at recessionary levels • Interest rates are rising and will move higher • Affordability becoming a greater challenge; macro environment weighs on sentiment Source: S&P Global Mobility US Light Vehicle Sales © 2023 S&P Global S&P Global Mobility Millions 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 January 2023 FC January 2020 FC
- 9. 9 S&P Global Mobility State of US Car Buyers Data Continues to Reflect COVID-19 Impact (longer terms, 0% financing, less reliance on leasing) APRs Were Steady, Likely to Rise Loan Terms Remain Elevated, Subject to Grow Amount Financed will Continue to Rise Vehicle prices will continue rising as electrification accelerates; accommodative finance no longer a tail-wind $38,044 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Avg. amount financed © 2023 IHS Markit Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US); IHS Markit 66.5 55 60 65 70 75 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Avg. term length (months) © 2023 IHS Markit Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US); IHS Markit 4.85 0 2 4 6 8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 APR 60m term (%) © 2023 IHS Markit Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US); IHS Markit
- 10. S&P Global Mobility 10 North American Light Vehicle Production Supply Chain Risks Impact Everyone (Some More than Others); Customer Mix Continues to Shift Divergent trajectories – 2019 to 2030 Domestics -1.1M units or -13.8% Increasing shift to trucks and BEVs Deteriorating ICE platform scale More closely tied to US sales Build where you sell Transplants -72K units or -0.9% Localization Capacity expansion Global sourcing and increasing exports Start-ups +1.2M units or +327.0% Tesla remains dominant, although offshoring slows the rate of growth Monitoring other start-ups Source: S&P Global Mobility North America Light Vehicle Production © 2023 S&P Global 9.2 8.6 8.6 8.0 6.2 5.9 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.4 7.2 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.9 8.5 8.4 8.1 8.0 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.1 7.9 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Millions Detroit 3 Start-ups Transplants
- 12. Current Market End of Forecast Period 12 Material Competition Index (All Material Groups) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS AHSS UHSS GigaPascal Aluminum Magnesium SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Natural Fiber Steel Laminated Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS AHSS UHSS GigaPascal Aluminum Magnesium SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Natural Fiber Steel Laminated Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit
- 13. Current Market End of Forecast Period 13 Material Competition Index (All Material Groups) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS AHSS UHSS GigaPascal Aluminum Magnesium SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Natural Fiber Steel Laminated Average Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS AHSS UHSS GigaPascal Aluminum Magnesium SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Natural Fiber Steel Laminated Average Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit
- 14. Current Market End of Forecast Period 14 Material Competition Index (All Material Groups) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS AHSS UHSS GigaPascal Aluminum Magnesium SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Natural Fiber Steel Laminated Average Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS AHSS UHSS GigaPascal Aluminum Magnesium SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Natural Fiber Steel Laminated Average Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit
- 15. Aluminum vs The World
- 16. Current Market End of Forecast Period 16 Material Competition Index (Aluminum Sheet Comparison) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS Aluminum Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS Aluminum Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit
- 17. Current Market End of Forecast Period 17 Material Competition Index (Aluminum vs High Grade Steels) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability UHSS GigaPascal Aluminum Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability UHSS GigaPascal Aluminum Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit
- 18. Current Market End of Forecast Period 18 Material Competition Index (Aluminum vs Composites) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Aluminum SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Aluminum SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit
- 19. S&P Global Mobility 19 Body In White Global Material Market Overview
- 20. S&P Global Mobility 20 How much of a car does body-in-white represent? • Interior – Largely polymer/composite by volume – Metal: Seat frames, IP beams and brackets • Powertrain – Significant source of aluminum castings – Engines, Transmissions, Transfer Cases – Engine + Trans eMotor(s) + Battery tray • Chassis – Mixed environment with significant cost pressure on components (Al Cast Iron) – Most Common Aluminum: Wheels, Cradles, Uprights, Brake Calipers, Control Arms
- 21. S&P Global Mobility 21 Body-In-White Forecast: Data Structure Component Name Component Position Component Weight • A Pillar • B Pillar • C Pillar • Hood • Front Bumper Beam • Rear Bumper Beam • Front Door • Rear Door • Front Fender • Rear Closure • Rear Quarter Panel • Rocker Panel • Roof • Shock Tower • Bed • Agg rBIW (Underbody) • Inner • Exposed • Structural • Estimated Component Weight (Kg.) Vehicle Bodystyle Material Group Material Type Steel • Mild (<300Mpa) • AHSS (550-779Mpa) • GigaPascal (1000+ Mpa) • HSS (300-549Mpa) • UHSS (780-999Mpa) • Stainless Aluminum • 5xxx series • 6xxx series • 7xxx series • 9xxx series • 3xx.x series • 9xx.x series Composite • SMC • Glass Fiber • Aluminum Laminated • CFRP • Natural Fiber • Steel Laminated Magnesium • Magnesium Process Group Process Type Stamped • Cold Stamped • Tailor Welded • Bake Hardened • Warm Formed • Hot Stamped • Press Hardened Cast • Low-pressure PM Cast • Die Cast • Squeeze Cast • Vacuum PM Cast • High Pressure Die Cast Roll Formed • Roll Formed • Tailor Welded • 3D Roll Formed Extrusion • Cold Extrusion • Friction Extrusion • Pultrusion • Hot Extrusion • Micro Extrusion Molded • Resin Transfer • Injection • Compression • Autoclave • Thixotropic molding • Hot Stamped Note: components such as Rear Door, Roof, Bed and B/C Pillar depend on bodystyle Note: manufacturing process identification is made on a best effort basis in the BIW forecast
- 22. 22 Finished Components by Material Group indicate the “stalled” efforts of lightweighting -10 10 30 50 70 90 110 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Aluminum Composite Magnesium Steel Volume Global automotive body in white, material group tonnage compared to production volume © 2023 IHS Markit Million metric tons Source: Q4 2022 Body In White Forecast Millions Global Light Vehicle Production Body In White Material Demand
- 23. 23 0 1 2 3 4 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Aluminum CFRP Glass Fiber Magnesium Natural Fiber SMC Steel Laminated Global automotive body in white, material type tonnage © 2023 IHS Markit Source: Q4 2022 Body In White Forecast Million metric tons Global Body In White Non-Ferrous Demand
- 24. S&P Global Mobility 24 North America Production Region Body In White
- 25. 25 Finished Components by Material Group indicate the positive efforts of lightweighting 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Aluminum Composite Magnesium Steel Volume North america automotive body in white, material group tonnage compared to production volume © 2023 IHS Markit Million metric tons Source: Q4 2022 Body In White Forecast Millions North America Body In White
- 26. 26 Finished Components by Material Group 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Aluminum Composite Magnesium Steel North america automotive body in white, material group percentages © 2023 IHS Markit Source: Q4 2022 Body In White Forecast North America Body In White 87.3% 75.9%
- 27. S&P Global Mobility 27 North America Non-Ferrous Body In White
- 28. 28 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 3xx.x series 5xxx series 6xxx series 7xxx series 8xxx series 9xx.x series Aluminum CFRP Glass Fiber Magnesium Natural Fiber SMC Steel Laminated North america non-ferrous biw tonnage by material type © 2023 IHS Markit Million metric tons Source: Q4 2022 Body In White Forecast North America Non-Ferrous BIW Material Demand • 6.97% CAGR: non-ferrous BIW components – Aluminum 4.93% • 9xx.x series 27.34% • 8xxx series 18.44% • 7xxx series 20.36% – Composites 25.68% • Glass Fiber 29.36% • SMC 35.19% • Steel Laminated 33.69% – Magnesium 11.86%
- 29. 29 Finished Components by Material Type 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 3xx.x series 5xxx series 6xxx series 7xxx series 8xxx series 9xx.x series Aluminum CFRP Glass Fiber Magnesium Natural Fiber SMC Steel Laminated North america automotive body in white percentage market share by material type © 2023 IHS Markit Source: Q4 2022 Body In White Forecast North America Regional Market Non-Ferrous Materials
- 30. Signposts to achieve meaningful growth in automotive S&P Global Mobility 30 • Good: Engineering Problem – Direct solution – Component improvement – Component replacement • Better: OEM Problem – Tactical solution – System integration – Build improvement – Logistical improvement • Best: Consumer Problem – Drive market share – Add perceived value – Strategic advantage • Multi-factor benefit proposals have the highest success rate – Look for “and” • Long term materials use is a balancing act – Evolutionary design process • Scale and throughput – Plant floor space • Risk adverse environment – Supply Chain • Distance/Shipping • Diversity/Redundancy – Litigation – Quality • Focus: – Market windage – Material strengths – Disruption – Competitive advantage • How does my solution perform in comparison to emerging design? • Avoid: – Comparison to old design – Hype driven marketing • Do consumers want this? – Overly-technical approach • Does my target audience really care about this level of minutia and detail? Solve a “real problem” Dollar Cost is Queen, not King Traffic cones and potholes
- 31. Customer Care Americas +1 800 447 2273 Europe, Middle East & Africa +44(0) 134 432 8300 Asia Pacific +604 291 3600 Japan +81 3 6262 1887 CustomerCare@ihsmarkit.com © 2022 S&P Global. All rights reserved. 31
- 32. Material Competition Index Deep Dive
- 33. Current Market End of Forecast Period 33 Material Competition Index (Steel Material Group) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS AHSS UHSS GigaPascal Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Mild HSS AHSS UHSS GigaPascal Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit
- 34. Current Market End of Forecast Period 34 Material Competition Index (Light Metal Material Groups) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Aluminum Magnesium Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability Aluminum Magnesium Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit
- 35. Current Market End of Forecast Period 35 Material Competition Index (Composite Material Group) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Natural Fiber Steel Laminated Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weight Reduction Process Difficulty Availability Material Cost Volume Sensitivity Training & Learning Need Energy Absorption Stiffness Toughness Virgin Production CO2 Recylability SMC CFRP Glass Fiber Natural Fiber Steel Laminated Material competition index by material category Source: IHS Markit © 2023 IHS Markit