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The Theory of Change
Carwyn Gravell, Julie Muir, Andy Logan, Andy Williams, Ian
Barnett
9th May 2018
Forward today
16,000 service
users across
England
Working in 18
prisons and 10
community
hubs
410
employees –
34% with lived
experience
“I completed the programme in 2008 at HMP Send and was released in 2014. Since then, I’ve opened
my own business and become a mother. Forward has given me more opportunities than I ever could
have imagines and they are still here for me, still supporting me”.
Former Forward client
Our Theory of Change
Enablers
• Belief in change - For anyone, whatever their
past
• Peer role models - Living proof that change is
possible
• Clear progression pathways - Incremental
steps towards lasting change
• Networks of support - Providing positive
encouragement and affirmation
The problem
Our reach & impact
Drug & alcohol recovery
55%
of prisoners have
committed
crimes related to
drug use
15,000
clients seen
every year
Reoffending costs
the public
£15 billion
each year
“I never thought it would be possible to change my
ways of crime and addiction. But I now live free from
drugs, alcohol and crime in a beautiful flat, with a full
time job and a girlfriend. I feel so positive about my
future”.
Former Forward client
65%
reduction in
the volume of
crime
18%
lower re-
offending rate
76%
of ex-offenders
with addiction
problems re-
offend within
1 year
The problem
Our reach & impact
Health & wellbeing
Range of new
interventions
delivered in
prison including
IAPT
25%
reduction in
severity of
symptoms of
anxiety
50%
reduction in
severity of
symptoms of
depression
71%
of prison clients
present with
mental health
symptoms
“Because of the meditation and things I’ve learnt,
like the breathing technique, helps in managing the
negative thoughts and feelings”.
Former Forward client
A prisoner
commits
suicide every 3
days
Substance
dependent
offenders with
depression are
9% more likely
to re-offend
The problem
Our reach & impact
Connections
We now support
over 3,000
clients to
improve their
relationships
Prisoners who
receive family visits
are 39% less likely
to re-offend
“I can’t believe how much the family service has
helped me. It’s given me the tools I need to stay
strong, as well as to support my husband in his
recovery”.
Former Forward client
40% of
prisoners say
support from
family would
stop re-
offending
88,000
children have a
parent in prison.
Only 1 in
3 prisoners are
supported to
maintain family
ties
The problem
Our achievements
Employment services
75%
of prisoners
have no job on
release
2,000
ex-offenders and
people in recovery
employed
23%
reduction in
re-offending
43%
move directly
into permanent
jobs
Ex offenders
and people in
recovery are the two
groups organisations
are least likely to
employ
15%
of prisoners
have never
worked legally
“Being at Blue Sky helped my become more
confident and made it easier to integrate back into
society and support my growing family.”
Former Forward client
Our achievements
2,000
ex-offenders and
people in recovery
employed
23%
reduction in
re-offending
43%
move directly
into permanent
jobs
Our Theory of Change
Our Theory of Change
The Theory of Change
Expert Panel

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CARWYN GRAVELL - THE THEORY OF CHANGE – AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

  • 1. The Theory of Change Carwyn Gravell, Julie Muir, Andy Logan, Andy Williams, Ian Barnett 9th May 2018
  • 2. Forward today 16,000 service users across England Working in 18 prisons and 10 community hubs 410 employees – 34% with lived experience “I completed the programme in 2008 at HMP Send and was released in 2014. Since then, I’ve opened my own business and become a mother. Forward has given me more opportunities than I ever could have imagines and they are still here for me, still supporting me”. Former Forward client
  • 3. Our Theory of Change Enablers • Belief in change - For anyone, whatever their past • Peer role models - Living proof that change is possible • Clear progression pathways - Incremental steps towards lasting change • Networks of support - Providing positive encouragement and affirmation
  • 4. The problem Our reach & impact Drug & alcohol recovery 55% of prisoners have committed crimes related to drug use 15,000 clients seen every year Reoffending costs the public £15 billion each year “I never thought it would be possible to change my ways of crime and addiction. But I now live free from drugs, alcohol and crime in a beautiful flat, with a full time job and a girlfriend. I feel so positive about my future”. Former Forward client 65% reduction in the volume of crime 18% lower re- offending rate 76% of ex-offenders with addiction problems re- offend within 1 year
  • 5. The problem Our reach & impact Health & wellbeing Range of new interventions delivered in prison including IAPT 25% reduction in severity of symptoms of anxiety 50% reduction in severity of symptoms of depression 71% of prison clients present with mental health symptoms “Because of the meditation and things I’ve learnt, like the breathing technique, helps in managing the negative thoughts and feelings”. Former Forward client A prisoner commits suicide every 3 days Substance dependent offenders with depression are 9% more likely to re-offend
  • 6. The problem Our reach & impact Connections We now support over 3,000 clients to improve their relationships Prisoners who receive family visits are 39% less likely to re-offend “I can’t believe how much the family service has helped me. It’s given me the tools I need to stay strong, as well as to support my husband in his recovery”. Former Forward client 40% of prisoners say support from family would stop re- offending 88,000 children have a parent in prison. Only 1 in 3 prisoners are supported to maintain family ties
  • 7. The problem Our achievements Employment services 75% of prisoners have no job on release 2,000 ex-offenders and people in recovery employed 23% reduction in re-offending 43% move directly into permanent jobs Ex offenders and people in recovery are the two groups organisations are least likely to employ 15% of prisoners have never worked legally “Being at Blue Sky helped my become more confident and made it easier to integrate back into society and support my growing family.” Former Forward client
  • 8. Our achievements 2,000 ex-offenders and people in recovery employed 23% reduction in re-offending 43% move directly into permanent jobs
  • 9. Our Theory of Change
  • 10. Our Theory of Change
  • 11. The Theory of Change Expert Panel