Jeff French: How to Design and Deliver Social Programs that Influence Behaviour
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Jeff French: How to Design and Deliver Social Programs that Influence Behaviour
Keynote Session
Presented at the New Horizons in Responsible Gambling Conference in Vancouver, January 27-29, 2014
2. Who am I ?
Biologist
Educator
Public Health Specialist
Civil Servant
Entrepreneur
Academic
Writer
Consultant
Social Policy & Programme
Engineer
3. 3 Big Messages
We Know a lot about how to:
1. Help people behave in individual and
socially responsible ways
2. Design successful social interventions
3. We have a professional and
personal responsibility to apply
this understanding and add to it.
4. Content
1. Why social programmes influencing social behaviour
need to be more sophisticated.
2. What we know about influencing behaviour.
3. Social Marketing and efficient Social Programme
design.
4. Developing programmes for minimising harm and
protecting people with potential gambling problems.
10. Better use of public funds
Serve the people better
Stephen Harper
David Cameron
11. The big frustrating questions
for Donors and Governments
• What is the impact of
the funds we invest?
• What is the ROI?
• What have we learnt?
12. "Less than $1 out of every
$100 of government
spending is backed by
even the most basic
evidence that the money
is being spent wisely."
John Bridgeland and Peter Orszag, The Atlantic 2013.
http://www.cochrane.org/
http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/
13. The wicked economic and
social drag factors:
Health / Physical & Mental
Chronic & Acute Disease
Information Asymmetry
Degradation of Social Capital
Environmental change
Water access
Poverty
Inequality
Discrimination
14. Big complex messy societal challenges
alcohol
climate
change
recycling
theft
accidents
violence
inequality
poverty
obesity
Pollution
HIV / Aids
drug use
smoking
Problem Gambling
sexual health
16. Professor Hans Rosling
Karolinska Institute
GAPMINDER
http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$ma
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uyj1jiMAkmq1iMg;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=Y
COORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2tPLxKvvnNP
A;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwc
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Value=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;sc
ale=log;dataMin=283;dataMax=110808$
map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=18;dataMax=8
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=i37_t001800,,,,;modified=75
17. What do you think the life expectancy
in the world as a whole is today ?
40 years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
Correct
answer
70 Years
18. What percentage of adults in the
world today are literate?
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Correct
answer
80%
19. The number of
children who die
before they reach five
has been cut by half
over the last 20 years
From 12 million in 1990 – 7.6 million in
2010. Proof that investment has paid off.
Unicef Annual report 2011
20. We should be optimistic
Positive Change is Possible
22. The rise of the
Demanding
Sceptical
Citizen/Consumer
John Clarke et al
Pine Forest Press 2007
23. Put your hands up
generation LX
you are the ‘Charmed Generation’
Typically, people born between
1950 and 1970
You want it how
you want it
24. Citizens want to be part of the solution.
They are saying to us:
I do not believe you
I am in control
I do not help me
now, trust you
solve the
Listen to me
problems
26. We are not all the same
Which shape and colour best
represents the way you work?
27. “It’s not about
telling and
selling. It’s about
bringing a
relationship mind
set to everything
we do”
Jim Stengel Global Marketing Chief Proctor &
Gambel 2009)
32. Can I read your mind?
I will mind read your card and
remove it!
33. Government should ban…
MANDATORY LEG.
Tend to support/strongly support
Saudi Arabia
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
Turkey
Mexico
Italy
South Korea
Poland
Argentina
Brazil
Japan
South Africa
Hungary
Canada
Spain
Australia
France
Belgium
Germany
Great Britain
Sweden
USA
33%
75%
72%
69%
68%
66%
64%
63%
63%
62%
60%
56%
53%
53%
52%
52%
51%
49%
49%
43%
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada)
in each country, November 2010
87%
87%
86%
84%
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
34. Strategic Social Marketing
Government should make it more expensive/more difficult…
OPTIONAL LEG.
% Tend to support/strongly support (average over all four policy areas)
China
India
Indonesia
S Arabia
Turkey
Russia
South Korea
Brazil
Mexico
Poland
Argentina
Italy
South Africa
Hungary
Japan
Canada
Belgium
Spain
Australia
Great
Sweden
France
Germany
USA
46%
72%
71%
70%
70%
70%
68%
68%
67%
67%
64%
63%
62%
62%
61%
60%
59%
55%
88%
87%
86%
82%
79%
78%
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada)
in each country, November 2010
35. Strategic Social Marketing
Government should provide incentives…
INCENTIVES
Tend to support/strongly support
China
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Mexico
Turkey
India
Indonesia
Poland
Brazil
Hungary
Argentina
Australia
Italy
South Korea
Canada
Spain
Belgium
Great Britain
Germany
France
Japan
United States
Sweden
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada)
in each country, November 2010
Average over all four policy areas
95%
94%
93%
92%
92%
91%
91%
90%
90%
89%
88%
88%
88%
87%
87%
86%
84%
83%
82%
80%
80%
78%
74%
73%
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
36. The wealthier the nation the less likely they are to favour
coercive government intervention
The government should make the behaviour more difficult/more expensive (optional legislation)
Strongly support/tend to support
90%
China
India
R2 = 0.703
Indonesia
85%
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
80%
Russia
75%
Brazil
70%
South Korea
Mexico
Argentina
South Africa
65%
Poland
Italy
Japan
Hungary
Spain
Belgium
Canada
Sweden
Australia
United
France
Kingdom
60%
55%
Germany
50%
United
States
45%
40%
0
5000
10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
GDP per capita (PPP) (current int'l $)
Ipsos Global @dvisor;
World Bank 2009
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country, November 2010
49. The Power of Social Communication
•
•
•
•
•
•
Salience
Priming
Familiarity
Trust building
Low attention processing
Emotion and physical association
50. Is your card missing?
When I show the deck
put up your hand
if I have removed your card
58. Features of many social programmes
1. Short term
2. High cost
3. Crude understanding of
behaviour change
4. Focused on cure not
prevention
5. Poor co-ordination
6. Poor evaluation
59. Evidence informed Policy?
Evidence and Insight
Policy
The reality is slightly different
Policy with evidence
Policy in search of evidence
Policy counter to the evidence
Evidence in search of policy
Eminence based policy
Policy in search of a headline
60. Politicians role:
Evidence and Insight
Policy
1. Reflect public opinion
2. Develop and promote policy
3. Champion effective and
efficient interventions and
stamp out the rubbish
62. Effective Policymaking involves:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Evidence based or informed.
Informed by citizen insight.
Informed by behavioural science.
Designing policies around outcomes.
Strategic & Operational focus.
Embedded learning systems.
Stakeholders involved.
63. The Building
Blocks of
Citizen Centric
Policy
Use citizen
understanding and
assets to deliver
outcomes
Build operations
around the citizen
Understand the
citizen
Engage Citizens
64. Social Policy:
1. Insist that evidence based
approaches are used in all
programmes
2. Develop systemic sustained
relentless strategy
3. Help build the evidence base.
Commission RCT’s
4. Actively build & contribute to
social coalitions
65. When to use SMART Objectives and
when to run a RCT
RCT
SMART OBJECTIVES
AND PRESCRIBED
Rational
SYSTEMS AUDIT
decisions
Judgmental
decisions
Source: Stacey RD. Strategic management and organisational dynamics: the
challenge of complexity. 3rd ed. Harlow: Prentice Hall, 2002.
69. The weaknesses of Classical economics
& Neo-classical economics
Rational Choice Theory
Maximising utility
Homo economicus ‘Rational
Economic Man’ & Woman!)
Adam
Smith
1776
Francois
Quesnay
Humans :
rational
self-interested
actors
Jean-Baptiste
Say
David
Richardo
Thomas Robert
Malthus
John Stuart
Mill
73. Thinking Fast and Slow
The 2 systems
1
Automatic
Uncontrolled
Effortless
Intuitive
Associative
Fast
Unconscious
Skilled
Emotional
Hot
2
Reflective
Controlled
Effortful
Knowledge driven
Deductive
Slow
Conscious
Rule following
Rational
Cold
76. Fear of Loss
(Prospect theory)
We are overly optimistic
We over value small, sure,
short term gains
We underestimate uncertain
long term losses
We are very loss averse
Daniel
Kahneman, a
psychologist won the
Nobel Prize for pointing
out that economic
choices are not so
rational
79. Nudges can be characterised as:
•
Positive or only
minor penalties
•
Avoidable
•
Passive, and easy,
i.e. require little effort
•
Low cost,
to both the person and to the organisation utilizing them
106. Move the veg to
Rename the food
the start of the line
e.g.
‘Farm fresh fruit’
Hide the ice cream.
Close the lid
Use glass fruit bowls
Spray water on
not
salad
stainless steel
Pay cash for desert not
Accept cards
Move salad bar to the
center of canteen
Nudge
Design
Make an express
checkout
for healthy
products
110. Conditional Cash Payments
Argentina
$53 month received by the
families of more than 3.6 million children,
conditional on school
attendance and
keeping up to date
with vaccines and
health check- up’s.
Hug
Support
116. Marketing Mindset:
Use data, evidence and insight to
create policy, systems, environments,
products and services that make the
healthy choice the Easy and
Desired and Valued choice
117. The New Civic Relationship
Professional led
Selling / telling
Awareness
Adult – Child
One-off / transitory
Deficit
Operational focus
Whole population
Control
Central command
Compartmentalise
Tell Sell and
Control
Consumer led
Marketing / relationships
Behaviour
Adult - Adult
Sustained
Asset
Strategic focus
Segmented audiences
Empower
Networked leadership
Whole system
Social
Marketing
118. The Social Marketing Customer Triangle
Behaviour
Behaviour Theory & Behavioural Goals
INSIGHT
Customer
Method Mix
Intervention mix & Marketing mix
Audience
Segmentation
French & Blair Stevens 2006
119. Social Marketing is a systematic planned Process
www.stelamodel.com
Scope
The rationale
Situation Analysis
Target Audience Profile
Intervention proposition
Initial marketing objectives
Test
Marketing intervention
Mix Strategies
Pre testing and piloting
Report on the pilot
programme
Full business plan
setting out
Enact
Time frame and key mile
stones
Resources allocation
Stakeholder and partner
management
Evaluation and monitoring
Learn
&
Act
Reporting
Review and build on
learning
122. CDC on Social Marketing:
Health Communication Campaigns Review April 2011
• Median increase of 8.4% in the
proportion of people who
engaged in a healthy behaviour.
• Overall, results were
consistently
favourable
"Combining product distribution with health
communication campaigns results in greater behaviour
change than using health communication campaign
alone."
124. People have always gambled and
always will. Two key questions are:
1. How to maximise the
fun and minimize the
potential harm?
2. How to use income
for the best social
impact?
126. Why do some people get harmed by
gambling? It’s simple,
It’s because of :
Non-linear probability
weighting, projection
bias, prospect theory and
temporal discounting!
127. “We are weak-willed
Luckily, the
and lacking in self- history of the
control, rendered dociledefined by
human race is
in the face of the
its ability to invent stuff
unconscious cognitive
processes, bolsters its feeble
social
that
dynamics and external
capabilities
contextual cues”
Steve Johnson The Guardian on line, http://www.theguardian.com/sustainablebusiness/behavioural-insights/true-potential-technology-change-behaviour
129. Segment people who gamble
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Happy and in control gambler
Occasional gambler
Habitual gambler
Problem gamblers
At risk gamblers
Pathological gamblers
Minor Problem gambler
Big problem gambler
Physically ill gambler
Mentally ill gambler
Ethnicity / culture factors
Male gamblers
Female gamblers
Children gamblers
Young adult gamblers
Mature adult gamblers
Older adult gamblers
Rich gamblers
Poor gamblers
Poly addiction gamblers
130. Designing effective interventions
1. Formal preventive life skills
education about gambling.
2. Self directed education about
gambling and responsible
gambling promotions
3. Design safer gambling
environments, systems and
processes that reflect human
decision making
131. 4. Build in and provide cut-off options plus
cooling off / reflection points /self exclusion
5. Restrictions on
promotions with special
emphasis on vulnerable
groups
6. Easy access to help and
support including outreach and community
support
132. Developing effective gambling programmes
1. Develop strategy and hard
objectives and report on progress
2. Use a full mix of interventions
based on data, insight, evidence
and ethics
3. Develop segmented programmes
4. Invest and evaluate, add to the
knowledge and evidence base
133. The UBC Centre for
Gambling Research
• A $2-million investment from the
British Columbia Lottery
Corporation (BCLC) and the
Government of B.C. will create a
major new Centre for Gambling
Research at the University of
British Columbia to advance our
understanding of gambling
psychology and help reduce
problem gambling behaviours.
• The UBC Centre for Gambling
Research will be one of a handful
of its kind internationally.
140. Social Policy:
1. Insist that evidence based
approaches are used in all
programmes
2. Develop systemic sustained
relentless strategy
3. Help build the evidence base.
Commission RCT’s
4. Actively build & contribute to
social coalitions
141. We can deliver significant social
improvement if we model and
apply what we know works and
stop doing what
we know
doe’s not work.
does
142. We have the opportunity to be at the
cutting edge of science and evidence
driven social policy intervention design.
Please accept this challenge!
143. Many Thanks and Good Luck
Jeff French
Twitter.com/jefffrenchSSM